Cargo and the Rockies can't get it right. (AP Photo/Joe Mahoney)
In geological terms, a slump is a landslide that moves downhill in one piece. They’re fairly common and most are small. However, they can also be catastrophic events. In 1999, the northern coastal region of Venezuela saw over a full meter of rain in just three days, triggering thousands of disastrous slump landslides. There was rampant destruction of homes, buildings, and roads. Many people died. The event literally changed the landscape of the region, diverting numerous rivers and destroying miles of coastline. Monetarily, the final damage tally was $1.9 billion.
Since late April, the Rockies have been in a massive landslide and it seems to be gaining momentum. The team is failing in every facet of the game. They can’t hit or pitch. Felipe Paulino, Franklin Morales, and Jose Lopez have been sent packing and Ian Stewart is in AAA. After sitting in first place in the NL West for most of the season and building a four game lead, they’ve fallen all the way to third and are four games back of the Giants. Management keeps calling this a slump. They’re right. It is a slump, a massive catastrophic slump. If the slide doesn’t stop soon, the season may not be salvageable.
Chris Humphreys (US Presswire)
Through all of this, I’ve been maintaining hope that the Rox would right the ship, but the loss of Jorge De La Rosa and Ubaldo’s continuing struggles have me thinking otherwise. This team, in its current state, cannot contend for the NL West title. The sooner Dan O’Dowd comes to terms with this fact, the better. If they want to remain competitive, moves must be made.
Calling up EY Jr. was a good start, but playing him center field isn’t going to help much. Junior can’t hold down Coors’ expansive outfield as well as Fowler. If they want him playing outfield over Dexter, they need to move Cargo to center. Personally, I think they should play Junior at second and start Herrera at third. This will enable them to move Wiggy into a utility role, which is what they signed him for in the first place. Also, moving Ty from regular starter to role player will improve their depth.
Offensively, the main reason the Rockies are struggling is because their best player has had an awful month. After a terrific start, Tulo’s production has fallen off significantly. However, he’s also been the victim of bad luck this year. It seems like he is constantly hitting the ball directly at fielders and the numbers back that up. For the year, his BABIP is a very unfortunate .217 and it’s under .200 for the month of May. For his career, Tulo has a BABIP well over .300. Cargo is in a similar situation. He currently has a career low .270 BABIP. It’s a safe bet that this will change for both players. So I’m actually somewhat encouraged about their offense going forward. It’s the state of their pitching that has me concerned.
The loss of Jorge De La Rosa is enormous. With him pitching well, the Rockies were able to withstand Ubaldo’s poor season. However, now that he’s gone, the Rox are left with Jason Hammel and Jhoulys Chacin as their only consistent starters. Clayton Mortensen has a low ERA, but his 4.05 xFIP suggests that he won’t be able to sustain that for the rest of the season. Hopefully, Aaron Cook can return and pitch better than he did last season. However, even under the best of circumstances, neither Mortensen nor Cook will be able to replace DLR.
Nicasio gets thrown into the fire tonight. (Matt Barnard/Tulsa World)
That leaves the Rox with a couple of options. Juan Nicasio makes his major league debut today. Over the last year, Nicasio has emerged as the Rockies’ number one pitching prospect. He has a high octane fastball that he’s learned to harness and throw for strikes. This season, he has completely dominated the Texas League, leading in just about every important statistical category. However, as we all know, success in the minors doesn’t always translate, especially right off the bat. I’m holding out hope that he can step in and help carry the rotation until Ubaldo figures it out. However, I’m not counting on it. Even if he does, they probably need to trade for another arm.
The Rox also need to address the bullpen. At the start of the season, the pen seemed like it was going to be a major asset, but it hasn’t worked out that way. Aside from Matt Lindstrom, the Rockies’ relievers have not pitched up to expectations. Huston Street and company have had trouble holding leads and they’ve been giving up too many homeruns. For weeks, many have been screaming for a Rex Brothers call-up. At this point, the only conceivable reason for not calling him up is that they don’t want to start his arbitration clock. That’s a shame. Brothers is a confident, overwhelming pitcher who is effective against lefties and righties. He would be a major asset right now.**
This last month has been tough to watch for everyone. Last night, when Ubaldo was getting knocked all over the yard, Jim Tracy looked like the most depressed man on earth. It’s been a combination of poor play and extremely bad luck. The luck will turn around, but they need to plug some leaks. Honestly, they don’t have to do much — just a few moves. If they can add an arm or two and maybe even a third baseman, they’ll probably be okay. Hopefully, the landslide won’t completely wipe them out before they have the chance.
**Rex has been incredibly dominant in Colorado Springs. He has 44 K’s in 24 innings pitched. He has a 2.42 ERA and a 1.93 FIP even though his BABIP is a ridiculously unlucky .414.
Loading ...
Loading tweets...
10 comments
Jerry
May 28, 2011 at 2:31 PM (UTC -6)
Sorry, Logan, but I have not yet purchased the latest edition of”Baseball for Dummies.” What are the ‘BABIP’ and ‘xFIP’ statistical metrics you cite? And, here’s one new one that might be considered after attending Friday’s game: “BWD’s'” … Bat Whack Decibels. Never heard such loud cracks of the bat in my life. Maybe it’s the acoustics of Coor’s, or maybe it’s just the St. Louis mashers teeing-off on Ubaldo, eh?
Logan Burdine
May 28, 2011 at 3:10 PM (UTC -6)
Jerry, sorry for the confusion. I added links to each stat in the article. I’ll make sure to do that from now on.
Ken
May 28, 2011 at 10:44 PM (UTC -6)
Losing DLR was a huge blow to this team. If the Rockies do overcome this gaping hole in their lineup, it will be a testament to the depth of the organization. Reynolds, Mortinsen, Cook, and now Nicasio are battling for the Rockies’ third and forth spots in the rotation. Let’s face it; Jimenez is no longer the Ace. He’s a lock at the 5th spot of the rotation – and as such – his new role with the team is to simply keep the Rockies competitive and give them a chance to win late in the game. It’s not to say that he won’t eventually come back to form, but I think this is the best that he has to offer at this point in the season.
But giving the team a chance to win implies that the team can generate runs and take advantage of opportunities. Today against Garcia, and Tuesday’s game 1 against the Diamondbacks showed that the Rockies can erupt offensively, but the rest of the week showed that the offense was on vacation. Sending Jose Lopez packing and bringing back EY Jr. was one positive move. Already, EY is 4 for 10 at the plate (correct me if I’m wrong) and has one stolen base. That’s nearly double the production compared to what Lopez statistics say he would have brought the Rockies.
The next move, in my mind, would be a swap of Chris Nelson in exchange for Alfredo Amezaga. Nelson would be added depth to the Rockies bench and could be slid into 2B, SS, or even to 3B in a pinch. Wiggington could continue as the utility guy by sliding in and out of 3B, 1B, and the outfield, as needed. But the big move would be to solidify EY Jr at 2B, Herrera at 3B (at least give this a try), and Seth Smith in RF. These guys should be in the starting lineup every day until they prove me wrong (please don’t prove me wrong!)…
Owen
May 29, 2011 at 12:21 PM (UTC -6)
It’s pretty ridiculous and unfair to compare 10 ABs by Eric Young Jr. to Lopez’s season-cut-short. Lopez hit the ball hard, but was extremely unlucky. I think given the everyday chance, he could get back to 2009 form when he hit 25 homers… wasn’t that long ago. But like many former Rockies players, he’ll probably go to another team and start producing at a high level.
Logan Burdine
May 29, 2011 at 12:26 PM (UTC -6)
I doubt that. We’re talking about a guy with a career .690 OPS.
Owen
May 30, 2011 at 4:45 PM (UTC -6)
…Herrera, who you propose moving to third base, has a career OPS of .679
Logan Burdine
May 30, 2011 at 5:12 PM (UTC -6)
I’ve proposed playing Herrera at third as a means to stop the bleeding. Over the past couple of days, it has occurred to me that arguing for him to play there is like arguing for a fart over a turd. The fact that it’s even up for discussion says it all.
Wiggy has been playing a little better, but I’m still very skeptical. I’d like to see a trade, but don’t see any realistic possibilities.
Ken
May 31, 2011 at 11:18 AM (UTC -6)
Maybe its time to look at Stewart again? He has an OPS of 1.069 in the minors. Pitchers in the big leagues are going to continue to pitch at his hands until he figures out how to make an adjustment. I’m not sure if Stewart’s minor league stats are simply a reflection of 1) batting in the Springs and 2) batting against AAA competition or whether he has actually worked out his swing. Anyway, just a thought…
Ken
May 31, 2011 at 11:25 AM (UTC -6)
Outside of Holiday, who are these high level producers you talk about? Hawpe? Barmes? Hmmmm… That’s almost as “ridiculous” as my comment.
Justin
May 29, 2011 at 12:08 AM (UTC -6)
Nice post Ken, I agree with all you said but would add a few things as well. Move CarGo back to center and give Spilly the starting job he has deserved for years in right and move Smith to left. Also, enough of the Dexter Fowler switch hitting experiment. They got too cute and out-coached themselves when they insisted he hit switch once he made the bigs. He never was before, so why start now? He’s shown he’s a much better contact hitter from the right side, and will add 5-10 hr’s a year when he runs into something hittable.