A scene Rockies' fans have grown tired of watching. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
The 2011 list of jettisoned Rockies has grown disturbingly long. Not that the Rockies made a mistake by parting ways with Paulino, Morales, and Lopez, but anytime there is that much roster turnover, it’s usually not a good sign. Clearly the cuts were the result of the too many losses. If the Rox hadn’t played so poorly in May, all three of those players would probably still be with the team. The good news is these moves indicate that management will not tolerate poor production. Next on the team’s hit list appears to be Dexter Fowler.
Fowler drives us crazy because he has so much athletic ability, but has never fully utilized his skill set. He runs like a gazelle, but is totally clueless about stealing bases. For his career, he’s only successful 62% of the time he tries to steal. This year he’s two for eight.
Currently, he’s striking out 31.4% of the time. That’s Mark Reynolds territory, only Reynolds is capable of hitting 30 plus home runs and Dexter isn’t capable of hitting ten.
The truth of the matter is that Fowler has regressed significantly this year. His batting average is down to .238 after hitting .260 last season. Batting average is usually a poor barometer of performance at the plate. However, when evaluated in congruence with BABIP, it can be more reliable. Fowler’s batting average is bad, but it should actually be worse. His BABIP is a fortuitous .345. That’s almost twenty points higher than last year and will probably regress as the year continues.
Defensively, Fowler has a very solid reputation. In reality, he’s above average, but nowhere near as good of a defender as someone with his range should be. Currently, his UZR/150 is 5.5, ranking 11th overall for centerfielders. That’s respectable for most players, but it’s not for a guy with Dexter’s potential. It’s also not acceptable from a guy that’s hitting .238 with limited contact and no power.
A move to replace Fowler with Charlie Blackmon could happen any day. I’m a big fan of Blackmon and believe he has a chance to be a better player than Fowler, but we will have to watch Charlie go through some growing pains. It’s become common to think that the Rockies’ poorly performing veterans can be easily replaced by prospects, but that’s not always the case. Either way, we’re about to find out. Fowler was once the Rockies’ future in center field. Now, it looks like his days in Denver might be numbered.
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8 comments
Steve
June 6, 2011 at 10:39 AM (UTC -6)
I agree that the Rox have to move Fowler, but that opens a hole in center field. Playing Wiggy there is just a mistake, and I don’t think EY is ready for that assignment either. Maybe moving Smith over and letting Spilly play right every day?
Logan Burdine
June 6, 2011 at 11:10 AM (UTC -6)
I think with the current roster, it is totally asinine not to play Cargo in center.
Cole C.
June 6, 2011 at 8:23 PM (UTC -6)
The Rox need to employ more of what today’s outfield alignment is. Smith in Right, Spilly in Left, Cargo in Center. Wiggy, Nelson, and EY can rotate 2B and 3B. Let speed and defense spark the offense.
Cole C.
June 6, 2011 at 8:25 PM (UTC -6)
Also Cargo back in the lead-off spot is a great move, let him get back to distraction on base, instead of the pressure in the 3-hole.
Kevin
June 6, 2011 at 8:53 PM (UTC -6)
“Batting average is usually a poor barometer of performance at the plate. However, when evaluated in congruence with BABIP, it can be more reliable.”
Wouldn’t it be a better idea to look at his OBP which is an above average .340?
Even if you want to look at his BA, isn’t Fowler’s 31% strikeout rate likely to regress (ZIPS projects a 26% K% going forward) as well which would bring his BA back to around .260 or so?
Also, why do you say his BABIP is likely to regress? He’s had one around .350 before, and his xBABIP is .344 (using the Hardball Times xBABIP calculator).
Even if we just extrapolate Fowler’s current performance over the rest of the season, he’d still be worth about 3 WAR for the season. That’s good enough for me.
Logan Burdine
June 7, 2011 at 7:39 AM (UTC -6)
Honestly, trying to extrapolate trends with a sample size like Dexter’s is pretty much impossible. That’s a controversial theory, but I think it’s accurate.
I rarely use batting average to evaluate, but in this case I felt like it was noteworthy because he’s only hitting .238 despite a really high BABIP. Also, I don’t think you can count on him consistently carrying a .350 BABIP. I say that it’s likely to regress because chances are that his BABIP will be closer to average when the season ends. Even though it’s possible, you can’t count on best case scenarios.
At some point, he has to do something more than walk. Also, it should be noted that in May, his K rate was around 26% and it was still a really awful month.
Kevin
June 7, 2011 at 5:07 PM (UTC -6)
I agree that trying to extrapolate from small sample sizes is a bad idea; I was just trying to point out that he hasn’t really been that bad.
Why do you think that it’s a really high BABIP? He has a career BABIP of .337; he had a .351 BABIP in 2009; his xBABIP is .345; ZIPS projects him to have a .340 BABIP for the rest of the season.
I think that it’s much more likely that his K% will regress. It was 26% in May and that’s what ZIPS projects going forward.
I think that Fowler is this year’s Iannetta: a guy who struggles to begin the season, but who’s struggles are unlikely to continue. I hope that the Rockies management doesn’t overreact again and demote Fowler. He’s a quality starter.
Cole C.
June 6, 2011 at 11:31 PM (UTC -6)
I just heard that Fowler is heading to the 15-day DL with an abdominal strain.