Good teams, like the Braves, are just better than the Rockies. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
The Rockies entered play on Sunday 7.5 games behind the San Francisco Giants in the National League West. The Rox are four games under .500 and that is after winning back-to-back ball games to start the weekend against the Washington Nationals.
Since the start of the 2010 season the Rockies are an even 126-126.
Before the 2010 season the Rockies were almost a unanimous pick among experts to win the NL West and some even picked them to go to the World Series. Unfortunately the team that had built a reputation as a strong finisher finished weak in losing 13 of their last 14 games. Heading into 2011 the Rox weren’t quite as heavy favorites but still picked by many to rise to the top of the NL West. They cannot even tread water.
Last year a major part of the Rockies struggles lied on the road where they were 19 games under .500. In 2011 most of their struggles have come against the better teams in baseball.
Going into play on Sunday the Rockies were 15-29 against teams that were either in 1st or 2nd place in their division and 28-18 against all other teams. Teams like the Atlanta Braves this week have given the Rockies major troubles and worse yet are the Rockies struggles against the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants in 2011; the two teams battling for first place in the West.
It isn’t just the teams that are the cream of the crop either, it is teams in general that are good. Going into play on Sunday the Rockies were 23-35 against teams above .500 and 19-13 against teams under .500.
The list of holes in the Rockies roster and team philosophy is suddenly growing long, but it all comes down to competing against teams within your division and holding your own against the best teams in baseball. The Rockies struggle to do both.
At this point there is no reason to think that the Rockies are playoff contenders. And if they somehow found their way into the playoffs there is certainly no reason to think they can win in the playoffs. They cannot beat the teams that do look playoff bound.
The bright spot is that there are still about 70 games left in the 2011 season and a lot can happen. The Rockies will be tested immediately coming out of the All-Star break as they will face the Milwaukee Brewers (48-43, tied for 1st in NL Central) and the Braves (54-37, 2nd in NL East and fresh off of four game sweep of the Rox).
It is safe to say that it will take 90 wins to get into the playoffs in 2011 as the Braves, Giants and East leading Philadelphia Phillies all have more than 50 wins and each team is on pace for 90 wins. For the Rockies to reach 90 wins they will need to win 47 of their remaining 71 games. This means they need to win 66% of their games the remainder of the season.
Not to end on a real downer but there is not one team in all of baseball that has played baseball with a winning percentage of even 63% so far in 2011.
The first rumor that the Rockies are receiving calls on the availability of Ubaldo Jimenez has surfaced and if Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd is realistic in looking at the Rockies 2011 season he should be open to offers. Jimenez should easily fetch two or three top prospects and possibly even one or two more system players.
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4 comments
HK
July 11, 2011 at 11:24 AM (UTC -6)
People forget how quickly things can turn around with this team… We are historically a second-half team, and if you remember, just last year on August 21 (a lot closer to the end of the year than July 11), we were a staggering 11.0 GB, yet we made it to 1.0 GB by September 18. And then we lost that gut-wrenching game in LA where we scored 6 runs in the first two innings yet blew the save in the ninth and lost 7-6 in extras… and then we proceeded to lose 12 of the remaining 13…
But the moral of the story is that we almost pulled off winning the division from 11 games out as late as August 21 so we should not think we are in a worse situation now given the amount of baseball left and how good we have usually been in the second half.
The only thing that is very alarming is the home record – at one point last year we were 50-22 at home… and we are 22-22 at home this year. If we can start to reel off a lot of wins at home (which we have been able to do 3 of the last 4 years in the second half), I think this team still has a chance. Definitely a long shot, but it’s not quite as bleak as this article makes it sound.
Travis Lay
July 11, 2011 at 4:33 PM (UTC -6)
HK – thanks for the read.
I don’t buy the “second half team” bit. As you pointed out they completely fell apart last year in the last 2 weeks of the season and I think that is more than enough proof that the Rockies cannot go into August down 10-11 games and expect that they will just “turn it on” and be OK.
The games in April – and May – count just as much as the ones in September.
HK
July 12, 2011 at 12:02 AM (UTC -6)
First Half:
2011: 43-48
2010: 49-39
2009: 47-41
2008: 39-57
2007: 44-44
224-229 .494 WPCT
Second Half:
2010: 34-40
2009: 45-29
2008: 35-31
2007: 46-29
160-129 .535 WPCT
I think it is clear that we are a second half team… we are 5 games below .500 over the last 4 years (including 2011) in the first half and 31 games above .500 over the last 4 years in the second half. And even during the abysmal, godawful 2008 season, we still were above .500 in the second half at 35-31. 2010 is an aberration yet still could not damper the fact of how good we have been in the second half.
We started off after the break in 2010 going 2-11 and finished 1-13. That is two horrid streaks that total 3-24 that sandwiched the majority of the time when we went 31-16. I’m not just saying to pretend those losing streaks didn’t happen (yes, I know it wouldn’t be good if I threw out our 10-0 streak); I’m saying it because we played .660 baseball for 47 consecutive games in the middle of the second half last year – so we are capable of excelling even in our worst second half of the last 4 years.
And if we look at that “buffered” 2010 (yes, I know the other 27 count too, but just for the sake of realizing what we can do in consecutive games in the second half) and include our other competitive seasons of 2007 and 2009, we are suddenly a magnificent second half team in 3 of the last 4 years: 122-74 for a .622 WPCT. And even 2008 was still an above .500 season. So the point is we have always played very, very well in the second half over the last 4 years, but last year we decided we would like to play incredibly horribly too (we were a .660 team in the inner 47 games and a.111 team in the outer 27).
So I think it is safe to say that we are a better second half team. One two week stretch is not “more than enough proof” to disprove hundreds of other games the last 4 years say otherwise.
As for “The games in April – and May – count just as much as the ones in September. ” – this is true, but what it is actually saying and what the implication is are not the same.
Do those games count the same? Of course they do, but the key thing to realize is that making a late-surge into September in the playoffs is literally the best thing you can do in baseball. It only matters who leads the division when the season ends, and if another team led it 161 games in a row and you led on game 162, you win. We all know it’s better to lead in the bottom of the ninth than the third inning.
Now of course sometimes you can’t streak your way into the playoffs, and yes then those April/May losses are what killed you, but literally nothing is better going into the playoffs as a hot team that won their way in (as we learned in 2007).
That’s why we can have hope in the Rockies. Now of course they have dug themselves a horrid hole, and yes they will have to play exceptionally well – but they have a history of playing well in the second half, and I think we all know that this team is capable of rattling off a lot of wins in a row.
All we can do is see how they respond after the break. I may be in denial about this team, but if you had to pick any team to have a miraculous second-half run, it is the Rockies.
Travis Lay
July 12, 2011 at 6:07 AM (UTC -6)
I love the optimism and I might even use those numbers in the future (hopefully when you are right and I wrong and the Rockies are making a run).