(AP Photo/Nick Wass)
There is a misconception that Ubaldo has been awful for the entire first half of the season. In reality, he was only truly awful in April and for part of May. Since the spring officially turned to summer, he’s been fantastic. Some — cough, cough, Travis Lay, cough, cough — have pushed for the Rockies to entertain trade offers on Ubaldo. While I can certainly see the logic behind such a move — try to make a Rangers-Braves Mark Teixeira type deal — I think it would prove to be a mistake. Not only is he the best pitcher in the history of the franchise, he’s locked up for an affordable price through 2014. Not to mention, he has returned to his old dominant self.
On the face of it, it seems like Ubaldo has been floundering, leaving many point to this as a big reason why the Rockies are struggling this year. Nothing could be further from the truth. First of all, Ubaldo’s worst month (April) was the team’s best. Secondly, the last month and a half has been one of the better stretches of his career. Even with his horrendous start, the numbers that are within his control have been very similar to what he did in 2009 and 2010. Ubaldo is not the Rockies’ problem.
The biggest in difference in the Ubaldo of the last couple of months has been control. He started out the year injured, something most look past. He wasn’t able to put in the necessary work in spring training and then missed nearly three weeks right at the start of the season. It took some time for him to round into form and the last thing that came was his control. In April, his BB/9 was 3.94. In May that number increased to a robust 5.97. Since then he has been below 2.00, a mark that is significantly better than any other month in his career. Also, since he’s had better location, he’s done a much better job of keeping the ball in the park.
To truly evaluate Ubaldo, it’s probably best to focus on the last two and a half years as a whole. In 2009, he was quietly dominant, contributing almost as much WAR as he did in 2010. Last year, obviously he was a Cy Young candidate, but he benefited from a crazy lucky win streak in the first half of the season. This year, he started off very slow, but has slowly rounded into form. Take all three seasons as a group and you have a very good Major League pitcher — one of the best in baseball actually. He isn’t Cy Young, but he’s by far the Rockies best pitcher. However, perception is reality and this year the perception is that he’s terrible.
I’ll leave you with this final point. Ubaldo’s BB/9, K/9, HR/9, FB/HR, FIP, and xFIP are all pretty much identical to 2009. However, his ERA — the worst pitching statistic outside of wins — is a lot higher. Thus, he’s dreadful. It’s enough to drive this “stat-head” insane.
Disagree or have something to add? Let us hear it.
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10 comments
1 ping
Travis Lay
July 11, 2011 at 4:53 PM (UTC -6)
Listen, tough guy, I am not saying Ubaldo isn’t any good, I am starting to think that the Rockies should trade him while they can maximize their return. They should get at least 2 top prospects that are close to MLB ready and probably two more in low A ball that could pan out. With Wilin Rosario, Tyler Matzek and a few other top prospects in the Rockies organization taken a step back now is a great time to “stock the system”.
One of the issues the Rockies have had in 2011 is the inability to find players who are in AAA that can come to Denver and help the team. Blackmon was OK, Brothers, too, but who else is in Colorado Springs right now not named Fowler that could take a step up and help the team win?
If a stocked system comes to the Rockies with a nice package of prospects in return for Ubaldo the Rockies should listen.
Logan Burdine
July 11, 2011 at 6:02 PM (UTC -6)
From the sound of things, I’m gonna have to shank someone. #bloggerthug
Logan Burdine
July 11, 2011 at 6:09 PM (UTC -6)
What are the chances of just one of those prospects turning into an Ubaldo? They’re going to pay him roughly $17 million over the next three years. At that kind of money, his value is off the charts. I just can’t get behind it.
Travis Lay
July 11, 2011 at 8:23 PM (UTC -6)
OK, so, that’s a good point…I give, put the whittled down bar of soap away.
Ken
July 11, 2011 at 10:40 PM (UTC -6)
Travis,
You gave up too easily! Your general premise is correct, “If a stocked system comes to the Rockies with a nice package of prospects in return for Ubaldo the Rockies should listen.” Perhaps the Rockies shouldn’t listen too closely in 2011 and 2012, but the closer we get to 2014, the more the Rox would be well advised to look for a trade.
After this season, the worst thing the Rockies could possibly do is sign Ubaldo to a Tuloesque kind of contract (rumored to be in the works – at least during Spring Training). Let’s get whatever value we can for Ubaldo and not jump the gun on this guy.
Logan Burdine
July 12, 2011 at 8:44 AM (UTC -6)
Problem there is that his last year becomes a player option if he is traded. I look at it like this: if the Rox had a chance to sign one of the top pitchers in baseball for under $6 million a season and just three years, it would be a no brainer, right?
Ken
July 13, 2011 at 12:33 AM (UTC -6)
You’re probably right, Logan, but when the team is 5 games under .500 at the All Star Break, convincing me that there are any “no brainers” with the roster is… tough. Still, we don’t want the Rockies to inadvertently chop off their best arm to spite the team.
Thought I would toss this out: http://tinyurl.com/5v6n7bm If this is what other teams have in mind for Ubaldo, I vote to keep the big guy.
Travis Lay
July 12, 2011 at 6:11 AM (UTC -6)
I am definitely against any sort of contract for almost any pitcher for more than 3 or 4 years.
After Ubaldo blows up in his next start against the powerful Brewers I will counter!
Kevin
July 12, 2011 at 8:46 PM (UTC -6)
Good article.
Shake Weight
July 13, 2011 at 9:25 AM (UTC -6)
They better not trade Ubaldo. It would be another typical knee-jerk reaction that has exemplified this organization for the last couple of years and sent plenty of our major-league talent away from the club. I think part of the problem that we are in right now is because management keeps overreacting to the natural ebbs and flows of the game. It’s not like we are paying Ubaldo Cliff Lee money. Everyone has bad months, he is a young pitcher with nasty stuff that is very rare to find, don’t be stupid again Rockies.
Ubaldo just might be trade bait |
July 14, 2011 at 7:40 PM (UTC -6)
[...] and myself have sort of bantered back and forth on this website on whether or not the Rockies should trade Ubaldo. I tend to go back and forth, not really sold on trading him but if a team bombarded the Rockies [...]