Matt Holliday, the old #5
Can you believe that almost been three years have already passed since the Rockies traded away huge fan favorite Matt Holliday? On November 12, 2008 the Rockies sent Matt Holliday to the Oakland Athletics for Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street and Greg Smith. Before the 2009 season the Rockies assigned the number five to CarGo…in some sort of attempt to trick fans into thinking Holliday was still on the team? Let me guess, Alex White makes his first appearance for the Rockies wearing #38?
All joking aside I would venture to guess that the Rockies got the better end of that deal without really looking at the numbers. CarGo has had an MVP type season with the Rockies and Street has thrown 156 innings for the Rockies with a 3.35 ERA since joining the team (and 83 saves if you care about that silly stat).
Before the trade deadline in 2009 the A’s turned around and sent Holliday to St. Louis and received Brett Wallace (sent back to AAA with the Astros today), Shane Peterson (who?) and Clayton Mortensen (ya, that Clayton Mortensen) in return. Needless to say Billy Beane likes to wheel and deal. I am not going to continue digging as to what the A’s got in return for Wallace or Mortensen because at this point it is too far removed from the Holliday/CarGo trade. Safe to say that the Rox won that one.
Blake Street Bulletin Ubaldo trade coverage
But what about here in Colorado, would the Rockies have been better off just keeping Holliday and signing him to the big deal that he eventually got from St. Louis (seven years and $120 million)? Let’s look at the numbers.
Since joining the Rockies CarGo has played in 326 games, has 147 extra base hits (62 home runs) and an OPS+ of 129. We have to use the adjusted stats to help account for the ballparks as Oakland is much more difficult to hit in than Colorado. In the two-plus seasons CarGo has been a Rockie he has been worth 11.2 wins above replacement (this is from Fangraphs who take into account ballpark factors).
Holliday, in that same timeframe, has played in 396 games (CarGo spent time in AAA in 2009 for the Rockies) with 179 extra base hits (66 home runs) and an OPS+ of 149. Holliday has been worth 16.7 wins above replacement since leaving the Rockies. His past two seasons with the Cardinals have been exceptionally strong.
About the only offensive stat CarGo has the clear cut advantage over Holliday is in steals; CarGo has 58 in the past three years versus Holliday’s 23. Even according to defensive metrics on Fangraphs Holliday has not only been better but much, much better. I find that hard to believe after watching CarGo these past two years, especially, but for what it is worth Holliday has a UZR/150 of 25.1 in the past three years while CarGo’s UZR/150 is -2.6. This essentially says that Holliday has saved nearly 27 runs more than CarGo in the past three years. I have read before on the vast internet that UZR has trouble calculating at Coors Field and after seeing that stat I am really starting to believe that UZR has trouble with the spacious Coors Field outfield.
Finally, in the three years since leaving Colorado Holliday has earned about $41,053,327 and CarGo has earned $10,620,000. Using Holliday’s WAR, for each win above replacement for the past three years his employers have paid about $2,458,283 per win (I know this isn’t exact as he wasn’t making as much in Oakland, but you get the point) and each win CarGo has provided above replacement has cost the Rockies $948,214. Both of these rates are bargains considering a win in the major league market is said to be worth about $5 million in 2011. So while both of the players are still providing a better rate on the team’s investment CarGo is providing even more of a bargain for the Rockies.
When comparing CarGo to Holliday it sort of depends on what you want. In pure “wins” Holliday has been the better player, but CarGo has provided a good amount of wins at a much lower rate. Holliday has a better OPS+ over the past three years and it has been especially good the past two years. Despite what UZR/150 says I would take CarGo in the field over Holliday any day. I wouldn’t even consider putting Holliday in centerfield, a position CarGo plays very well. (And I should also mention that Holliday has a slightly better wOBA and much better wRC+ in the past three seasons.)
The last piece we have to look at (no matter how much I don’t care to look at relief pitching) is what Street has brought to the Rockies (we can skip G. Smith, right?). In Street’s time with the Rockies he has been worth 2.8 wins above replacement. “Closers” are always overvalued – unless your name is Mo Rivera – and Street is no different as he has earned $16,452,000 since the start of 2009. He has made more than CarGo since joining the Rockies. Does that seem right? The Rockies have paid Street $5,875,714 per win.
But Street has been worth nearly three wins and that is something. Combined Street and CarGo have brought 15 wins to Colorado at the price of $1,804,800 per win. The Rockies have slightly fewer wins above replacement with the combination of Street and CarGo but the wins still have come as a much cheaper cost than they would have with Holliday. Sounds like a win to me.
We can review this trade again in three or four more years and maybe there will be a clear cut winner, but at this time I believe it is a draw with possibly a slight edge going to Colorado.
Who do you think won?
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19 comments
Simone
August 1, 2011 at 7:09 PM (UTC -6)
The Rox got the better end of the deal. Matt was too much of a hot head…didn’t really care for him much.
Anyways, you know your teams sucks when the cleanup hitter is Ty Wigginton. I honestly think that Ty is sleeping with Jim Tracy, why else would he keep playing him and in the 5 hole???? Time to come out of the closet Jim.
Do they hold hands in the dugout Travis?
Travis Lay
August 1, 2011 at 7:17 PM (UTC -6)
I asked Alanna about the “A Game with Alanna” auction and she said she actually suggested that idea to the Root Sports team before the season started and it just kind of died, never picked up steam. I think it is a great idea and they could auction off hanging with all of the Root Sports personalities throughout the year for a game. Money goes to charity of some sort.
As far as Wiggy and Tracy, well, let’s just say they have a lot of closed door meetings!
Kevin fitzgibbons
August 1, 2011 at 8:53 PM (UTC -6)
So, let me get this straight……hanging out with the gang at root sports is a prize??
Travis Lay
August 1, 2011 at 9:04 PM (UTC -6)
I think the behind the scenes stuff would be cool – Rox clubhouse, dugout, press box, etc etc. Plus, many would bid just because it is Alanna…It would also be interesting to see which Root Sports personality gets most/least bid money.
Simone
August 1, 2011 at 7:44 PM (UTC -6)
Fire O’Dowd…we can run the Rockies twice as good and for 1/2 as much salary as him. LOL!
As far as Jim+Wiggy in all those meetings…at least we know what they’re doing. Poor Ian Stewart, I remember watching him up in Casper the first year he was drafted so I want him to succeed…but the more time goes by, the more I think Tracy just doesn’t like him. I’d hate to see him go but I think it’s best for his career at this point.
Btw: I can just see the headlines…”Tracy, Wigginton, and Anthony Weiner caught in baseball sex scandal”.
Will
August 1, 2011 at 7:50 PM (UTC -6)
Hi Guys,
New to the site, but so far interesting articles on my favorite MLB team.
A few thoughts for you.
Looking back on this trade, I think the reaction to the Holliday trade was similar to the reaction to trading Ubaldo. The past few years and for the next few years going forward, I am sure OK with having Cargo over Matt, and Street has provided at least some value to make the trade worthwhile. I think that the presumed success of this trade, DOD deserves some credit and at least some confidence on the trade of Ubaldo.
I keep hearing that the Rockies must know something about Ubaldo that the rest of the league doesn’t, because otherwise, why would they trade him? Is it possible that Rockies mgmt might think that the Ubaldo from the first half of last year is the ‘real’ Ubaldo, otherwise I can’t believe that they would trade that guy away. Is there an article/study on Ubaldo the pitcher outside of or at least discounting that magical and amazing stretch he went on?
Keep up the good work, go rockies!
Travis Lay
August 1, 2011 at 8:21 PM (UTC -6)
Thanks for the read and welcome to BSB, Will.
I think that there really wasn’t that much different between Ubaldo 1st half 2010 vs 2nd half 2010 or 1st half 2011. Just some luck stuff and a two bad months. His walk and strikeout rates have been pretty consistent since the beginning of 2010 and other than his HR rate going up in 2011 there isn’t too much difference. He is only 27 and this is when players usually enter their prime. The scary thing to me is that Ubaldo, I think, is still learning to pitch and harness his stuff. If he dials it back on the gun, say 3-4 mph, and gains better control, with his movement he could be really nasty.
It is not all that uncommon for pitchers to really take off after the age of 30, too.
I am looking forward to his start on Friday, AT TEXAS of all places, to see how he does.
Just like the CarGo trade, it will be hard to judge this trade for at least 14 months, if not 26. Either way, we can speculate and debate which is what makes talking/writing about sports so much fun.
Logan Burdine
August 1, 2011 at 8:44 PM (UTC -6)
I bet Oakland fans see it as a loss.
Even if you view it as a total win for the Rox, does that make up for ten plus years of mediocrity from the front office?
Sorry, not happy with the GM right now.
Travis Lay
August 1, 2011 at 8:51 PM (UTC -6)
Someone order you a poo-poo platter, Logan? We need to get you a beer, stat!
Simone
August 1, 2011 at 9:09 PM (UTC -6)
Well at least the Rox didn’t give up 6 runs in the 8th tonight…let’s see if we can hold the lead into the 9th.
Simone
August 1, 2011 at 9:10 PM (UTC -6)
Btw: I live in NYC and watch the Rox on my bigscreen via my PS3 thanks to MLB.tv…what’s the point of the weekend blackouts? It honestly just pisses me off every weekend.
Travis Lay
August 1, 2011 at 9:22 PM (UTC -6)
Thank FOX for those Saturday day game blackouts. Is the game on Saturday blacked out? It shouldn’t be since the game starts after the FOX game.
Simone
August 1, 2011 at 9:30 PM (UTC -6)
On Saturday it’s blacked out if it starts between 1pm and 5pm or something.
Simone
August 1, 2011 at 9:31 PM (UTC -6)
Oh and btw…I just have to say ROFLMAO, should have traded Street along with Jimenez. 3-3 bot 9th.
Simone
August 1, 2011 at 9:33 PM (UTC -6)
From MLB.tv
“… live games occurring each Saturday with a scheduled start time after 1:10 PM ET or before 8:00 PM ET and each Sunday with a scheduled start time after 5:00 PM ET, will be blacked out…”
So 90% of Saturday games are blacked out and about 50% of the Sunday games.
Travis Lay
August 1, 2011 at 9:42 PM (UTC -6)
Yep, those are just the FOX games. The game on Saturday starts at 8:10 ET and should not be blacked out. As for Sunday, that covers the ESPN Sunday night game.
Simone
August 1, 2011 at 10:06 PM (UTC -6)
Tonights game was just the story of the Rox in 2011….so close, yet so far away.
Btw: Is it me or were there more Phillies fans than Rockies fans at Coors field tonight? It was like a sea of red…
Ken
August 1, 2011 at 11:07 PM (UTC -6)
I like to think of the loss in this way: The Rockies just got schooled in how to come from behind and win a game in extra innings. I hope all of them (Jim and Wiggy, in particular) were taking notes.
Travis Lay
August 2, 2011 at 7:27 AM (UTC -6)
There were definitely more Phillies fans left in the stands in the 10th inning. Prior to that there were more Rockies fans.