“This isn’t rebuilding, this is restocking.” — Dan O’Dowd
Since The Trade went down, I’ve done my best to remove the emotion of losing Ubaldo and evaluate the deal objectively. However, the GM is making that very difficult. You can spin this trade a number of different ways, but acting like they are restocked and ready to compete for the NL West right now is an absolute joke.
Perhaps this trade will eventually pay off in spades for the Rockies. With any trade — especially one centered on four prospects — it is impossible to appropriately evaluate the deal until at least a year later. With this one, it will probably take at least two. Therefore, it is impossible to know if this was the right move or not. However, one must ask if it was a necessary move, and, unless the team knows something about Ubaldo that nobody else in baseball knows, this was absolutely not a necessary move.
O’Dowd said that if the Rockies had a ten game lead right now, he probably would’ve made this trade anyway. I’d imagine that if Dan traded Ubaldo while on the verge of the team’s first ever division title, there would be riots in LoDo. For him to sit there and try to sell the fan base on that is insulting. Right or wrong, this was a reactionary move driven by the Rockies’ woeful performance. If they were in first place, any conversation about Ubaldo’s availability would’ve been incredibly short.
In general, the Rockies have failed miserably at drafting pitchers, particularly in the first round. Without the efforts of their Latin American scouts, their pitching would be downright shameful. Without a doubt, the farm system has a void of solid starting pitching prospects and this trade definitely helps that. But, it’s a backwards approach. Under a best case scenario, one of these prospects will eventually become as good as Ubaldo. Either way, they will inevitably be compared to the best pitcher in franchise history. That’s the standard. However, the Rockies already had an Ubaldo. Now, they are gambling that they have another one.
According to Troy Renck, O’Dowd initially began shopping Ubaldo as motivation. It was just one little tidbit in Renck’s piece from this morning, but it’s something that has really stuck with me. When a player is struggling for a few months — and, yes, we are talking about a few months, folks — is it appropriate to threaten that player with a trade? Personally, I hate those kind of player management tactics. It borders on buffoonery to think that Ubaldo’s problems this year could be fixed by instilling fear. Perhaps that would work on some players, but even the fans know that Ubaldo probably isn’t the type of guy that responds to that kind of thing.
O’Dowd’s attempts to scare Ubaldo into performing are a sign of an institutional problem — one we’ve seen play out all year. If a developing player struggles at all, they are immediately sent back to the minors. Ian Stewart, Dexter Fowler, and Chris Iannetta have been on shaky footing since the day they were first called up. This season the fear of being sent down has constantly hovered over Fowler and Stewart. That kind of pressure is unnecessary. Baseball is tough game to conquer mentally. Management should do what they can to ease that burden, not compound it by threatening trades and demotions.
Dan O’Dowd has now been running this team for over half of the franchise’s existence. In that span, the Rockies are over eighty games below .500. Despite two lucky playoff appearances, they have never won the division. While they’ve made a few decent draft picks — Tulo and Matt Holliday come to mind — they’re overall draft performance under O’Dowd has been subpar. As I previously said, they are particularly bad at picking pitchers. This past off-season, O’Dowd made moves that turned an 86 win contender into an under-.500 disappointment. With any other organization in baseball, that kind of resume will — and should — get you fired. And, after years of skating by, it seemed like this season would finally put O’Dowd on the hot seat. But, he somehow found a way to buy himself some more time. No matter what happens next year, he will be given the benefit of the doubt by the Monforts as we wait to see what comes of Alex White and Drew Pomeranz.
A year or two from now, it’s possible that we will look back on this trade as a stroke of genius. However, with the way the Rockies have been developing players recently, it’s a hard deal to be comfortable with. If the Monforts really want this rebuilding project to succeed, maybe they should change organization’s culture, starting at the top. In the end, it’s about wins and that is one department where O’Dowd has repeatedly come up short.
I’d like to hear your opinions on O’Dowd. Is it time for the Rockies to make a change?
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14 comments
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CodenameDuchess
August 1, 2011 at 3:38 PM (UTC -6)
Great post Logan.
As for my thoughts…..
Off with his head!
Too many reasons to count. Inconsistent treatment of players, lack of development with the draft picks. Making stupid statements like the one at the top of the page is just icing on the cake.
Michelle
August 1, 2011 at 4:33 PM (UTC -6)
Logan, I have to disagree with your general assessment of O’Dowd’s words. I am definitely not a fan of the guy right now, especially after the way things went down on Saturday, but I interpreted his “restocking” comment differently. I don’t see how he could possibly think that the players acquired in this trade will have an impact this season. One can’t even come to us for several more weeks; one is rehabbing a finger. These are players for the future. I don’t know whether the move will pay off, but the more I think about it the more I think this was a ballsy decision. By NOT demanding that a superstar be included in the package, he is essentially conceding for next season or possibly the one after. I’ll admit that his refusal to acknowledge that the Rockies are done this season was political in nature, but I don’t think any GM would say something to that effect when it’s still July. The moves shows that he knows the team is done and he wanted to capitalize on the opportunity to unload Ubaldo for some players that might give us a better shot within the next couple years. Again, not saying I support the deal – only time will tell – or O’Dowd – he’s still a tool after Saturday. BUT, I think his comment about restocking was on the mark.
Logan Burdine
August 1, 2011 at 5:20 PM (UTC -6)
Tearing down to hopefully build something better in the future. You just defined the concept of rebuilding in sports.
Michelle
August 1, 2011 at 7:35 PM (UTC -6)
I know. That’s what they’re doing. My point was that I don’t think they’re trying to hide that that’s what they’re doing, so it isn’t disingenuous.
Logan Burdine
August 1, 2011 at 8:18 PM (UTC -6)
I would direct you to the quote at the beginning of the article.
Travis Lay
August 1, 2011 at 8:23 PM (UTC -6)
I sort of think that O’Dowd might actually look at this as restocking in the fact that he added to his minor league system. With Matzek and Friedrich not growing as they should this year they needed to add some arms.
On the other hand, I find it utterly ridiculous that he would even suggest that the Rockies would have made this same trade had they been up 10 games in the division. If they were even 2 games out he would have been insane to make this trade.
Michelle
August 2, 2011 at 10:26 AM (UTC -6)
That’s exactly what I meant. He is restocking prospects. Which is also known as rebuilding. I see zero guile in that statement.
Logan Burdine
August 2, 2011 at 11:55 AM (UTC -6)
Trading your best pitcher and then claiming that you would’ve done it with a ten game lead is not an admission of rebuilding.
Michelle
August 2, 2011 at 7:27 PM (UTC -6)
I agree that his comments were not unilaterally apolitical. The restocking one made sense to me, that’s all. Neither that nor the “10-game lead” statement made me think he feels they’re now ready to compete in the division when they weren’t before. We may have to agree to disagree on that since he didn’t actually say one way or the other.
Logan Burdine
August 3, 2011 at 2:06 PM (UTC -6)
Take that man at his word at your own peril.
Ken
August 2, 2011 at 12:44 AM (UTC -6)
I vote for a change in culture. Whatever combination of hard work and underhanded tactics the Momfort family used to become “King of Beef” on the Western Plains, Dick and Charlie Momfort need to conjure up and instill in their baseball team. I wanna see Seth Smith change his gospel-inspired walk-up song to something by Black Sabbath. I never wanna hear anything written or sung by Justin Beiber or Miley Cyrus before Tulo’s plate appearances. From now on, and to make up for lost time, Tulo’s walk-up song MUST make a tween’s ears bleed. Tulo, if you are reading this, trust me buddy. None of these kids are going to remember you in 20 years because you played their favorite song; they’ll remember you for your unassisted triple play and the championship rings you garner with Helton and Cargo. And when Tulo, Helton, or Cargo talk about playing the game “the Right” way, I wanna hear more comparisons to Pete Rose and Ty Cobb. In short, I want hard play with just a tinge of… meanness.
Jerry
August 2, 2011 at 8:20 AM (UTC -6)
Logan, excellent synopsis of the trade and the situation with the Rox. The most damning fact is the statistic you cite: Under O’Dowd’s regime, the team is a cumulative 80+ games UNDER .500. I don’t know of too many other owners who would tolerate that degree of sustained poor performance. And, I am very surprised at the extent that O’Dowd attempts to spin everything: it’s insulting to us that he says he would have considered the trade even if the team had been 10 games ahead. That’s just an inane, juvenile comment. In the end, I sense that O’Dowd’s immediate concern is his own longevity as G.M. and keeping his owners happy, rather than developing and executing a long-term strategic plan to improve the team towards an on-going level of full competitiveness. I also anticipate there will be more scapegoats that will get fired after this season. Once again, I’ll cite experience with my Detroit Tigers and a former G.M. named Randy Smith. Smith continued to spin and cite their farm system to perserve his job. It was all B.S. The owner, who genuinely wanted to win, finally booted him out and got a real baseball mind to run the show. Ultimately, the owners have to be held accountable.
Shake Weight
August 2, 2011 at 10:44 AM (UTC -6)
Hey, maybe we can win a AA championship!! Go Drillers!
Montana Steve
August 2, 2011 at 6:59 PM (UTC -6)
“borders on baffoonery”… well said, my friend. Well said.
Looking back on the Holliday trade |
August 1, 2011 at 6:07 PM (UTC -6)
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