Right now, the Rockies’ top three players in terms of WAR are Tulo, Chris Iannetta, and Todd Helton. In all likelihood CarGo will pass both Helton and Iannetta by season’s end – he’s pretty close already – but none of the top four should come as a surprise. It’s the fifth and sixth ranked guys that surprised me – Dexter Fowler and Seth Smith. I suppose I should’ve expected that Fowler and Smith are the team’s fifth and sixth best position players respectively, but they both are so often maligned that it’s easy to forget the contributions they have made this year, particularly Fowler. The Rockies have to be fairly comfortable with their current outfield going forward, but who knows if they recognize that.
Since being called back up Dexter has been on a pretty strong tear. He has upped his WAR over a full point in that short period of time, which loosely means that he has won them over one game since then. That may not seem like much, however it’s significant. Fowler drives us all a little crazy, but even at a portion of his potential, he’s pretty valuable baseball player. The Rox would have a very tough time finding a better defensive centerfielder. Not to mention, he has the ability to punish left-handed pitching. Granted, he has struggled some against righties, but he still maintains close to a .350 OBP when hitting from the left side.
Before the season, I think most fans would have taken a .287/.341/.499 line from Smitty. In fact, I suspect most didn’t think he would be able to produce at that level. Obviously, the problem with Seth has been his performance against lefties. In 66 at-bats, he has a measly .627 OPS. But, I think right now the positive outweighs the negative with Smitty. The positive is a .376 wOBA and .886 OPS against right-handers. It goes without saying that most pitchers are right-handed, so anytime you have a guy that can produce like that against righties, he’s definitely an asset.
When the Rockies lay out their blueprint for this upcoming offseason, it’s important they recognize Smith for what he is. Last year, they came into the season hoping he could be an everyday player, but his inability to hit lefties has left a hole. The Rockies have probably learned their lesson, but they can’t overreact. Smith hasn’t been their problem; Ryan Spilborghs has been their problem. In fact, Ryan has probably been the worst player on the team. I love the guy, but this isn’t a popularity contest. The reality is that Ryan Spilborghs has the lowest WAR among the Rockies’ position players. That includes Ian Stewart, Jose Lopez, EY, Amezaga, Blackmon, Chris Nelson, and anyone else not named Dinger. Only, Spilly has a lot more at bats than any of those guys. His performance has been a huge problem this year, yet it doesn’t get brought up much.
If the Rox fix the right side of their broken right field platoon, they are set in the outfield. At this point, surely they’ve seen enough of Dexter to finally put their faith in him. Next time he goes into a slump, hopefully they’ll let him ride it out. CarGo is a stud. We all know that. All they need is a cheap outfielder with a decent glove and the ability to hit lefties. With that, they will have a highly productive group. Despite a disappointing year all around, I’m seeing promise out of the Rockies’ outfielders. In fact, I’m highly encouraged.
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10 comments
Forsythe P Jones
August 18, 2011 at 7:25 PM (UTC -6)
I’d agree with that sentiment. It shouldn’t be too complicated to find a reasonable right-handed compliment to Smith. I’m a big Spilly fan, too, but it seems clear that the wall has been hit on what’s left of his bat. Maybe not. My fear is that, if Tracy is coming back next season, which I’d certainly expect, that we will just see more of this mix and match kind of stuff, like EYJ in the outlfield, where he should never play again. There are a number of positions that should be set in stone for next season; Tulo, CarGo, Ianetta, Helton, Dex, and for lack of a better option, Ellis. Nelson seems decent at third, but I don’t think his bat plays there. I certainly think we’ve seen the last of Ian Stewart, and despite certain optimistic projections for him, I can’t see him really ever being a useful starter in MLB. Something just seems like it’s gone awry, as his power, which was his main hitting tool, just isn’t there. I understand the idea that he has been bounced back and forth, but I rarely saw any indication that he wasn’t totally lost at the plate. It happens. So, it seems like third and a platoon for Smith are the positions in real need of a fix. Outfield should be easy; third base I’m not so sure, as there’s a dearth of talent at the position throughout the league ( as evidence that Rolen was the fill-in for the ASG ).
Logan Burdine
August 19, 2011 at 7:50 AM (UTC -6)
Yeah, those are pretty valid concerns. If Tracy is running EY out there in the leadoff spot next year, it probably won’t matter what they do for a rightfield platoon. Also, I’m afraid that their third baseman will be Wiggy. They really should’ve dealt that guy. He’s a terrible fit.
CodenameDuchess
August 19, 2011 at 12:07 PM (UTC -6)
A few HRs from Ellis and you’re sold? I’m not there yet and with him getting older I think it will just get worse from here. I’d like them to play Nelson there permanently. I believe if the kid was finally given a position he would develop defensively. I agree that his bat is a little soft for 3rd but I think it is a plus at 2nd base. Plus, I love the speed he brings to the game.
Forsythe P Jones
August 20, 2011 at 7:44 AM (UTC -6)
I’m not ‘sold’ on Ellis, at all, I just think that’s what they’re going to do. Defensively he’s better than Nelson at 2b, which I think plays a lot into their thinking. Although if you have a 3b who doesn’t have any power, either, than it’s really self-defeating. The answers clearly aren’t in the organization right now.
Michael
August 18, 2011 at 9:43 PM (UTC -6)
I agree Smith has been good this year and Spilly is bad but neither deliver what the rockies really need in the lineup: Power. Out of the four corner positions only Cargo delivers the ability to reliably hit the long ball. Helton is worth the sacrifice because of his still great defense and high OBP. But rightfield and the hole that is 3rd produce almost nothing. Tulo give the Rox a huge advantage by producing power at a center infield position, that would allow them to get away with one of those two positions producing not much behind the plate if they could contribute in saving runs at least but I am sick of cement feet Wiggy and Smiths pattented no triples-style defense(seriously how many extra bases get taken off smith cause he plays so deep and is then slow to get to the ball?).
Simone
August 19, 2011 at 1:50 AM (UTC -6)
What’s the chance of having Charlie Blackmon play in right field next year and having Smith go back to a PH / 4th outfielder role?
Travis Lay
August 19, 2011 at 1:17 PM (UTC -6)
I am not sure the Rockies would gain much with Blackmon over Smith. Both seem to be the same sort of player – decent OBP and little power (when comparing to other corner OF’ers).
Jerry
August 19, 2011 at 8:22 AM (UTC -6)
I’m really warming to Fowler, especially his great defense, but it’d be nice to have a centerfielder that hits more than zero HR’s. Also, I find it curious that Tracy has moved Cargo to RF and Smith to LF …. why did it take 120+ games to make this move to acknowledge the greater value of a strong arm in RH. And, never, never put EY in the outfield. The sentiment that Tracy is a micro-manager while missing the big picture at times seems valid.
CodenameDuchess
August 19, 2011 at 12:01 PM (UTC -6)
Left Field at Coors is enormous and you need to have someone that can cover the ground. Cargo is there because of his speed. I’d be nice to see his arm play in right full time but it with the way Coors is set up it would be a waste of his talents.
killtheDH
August 21, 2011 at 7:43 AM (UTC -6)
If Spilly’s replacement could hit lefties I wouldn’t mind him in left and Cargo in right on a platoon basis. I’d have to consider that a use rather than a waste of his fielding capabilities