(AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)
The Rockies won today despite Jim Tracy’s best efforts to help them lose. We have written plenty on his poor lineup choices and even bad choices on who gets playing time, but today Tracy was at his best.
I have wrote in the past about this and it upsets me to no end each time Tracy does it and he did it again today; he let Aaron Cook bat in the bottom of the fifth when he had no intention of letting Cook come out to pitch in the top of the sixth.
The game was tied 6-6 in the bottom of the fifth and the Rockies had Eliezer Alfonzo on second and Mark Ellis on first with one out and a full bench of pinch hitters including the likes of Jason Giambi and Todd Helton. Tracy sends Cook to the plate and asks him to put down a bunt. First of all, if Cook lays down a successful bunt Alfonzo moves from scoring position to … scoring position. I guess maybe he is scared Cook would hit into a double play, but that is all meaningless if he does what he should have done; pinch hit for Cook. The Rockies had two outs to get a base hit and score Alfonzo (I admit that Alfonzo might not score on every base hit) and isn’t two shots at getting a hit better than one?
This really backfired in Tracy’s face when Cook didn’t even lay down a good bunt and Alfonzo was out at third.
No matter, there is no way Cook should come to the plate if Tracy knows that Jason Hammel is warmed and ready to go and Tracy has every intent of bringing Hammel in next inning. How does a guy who has been in baseball so long not understand that a team only gets 27 outs and giving one up for free is idiotic? There is no reason not to at least give Jonathan Herrera an attempt to drive in Alfonzo and if he doesn’t than you have Eric Young Jr. coming up next. Anyone other than Cook who you are pulling!
That wasn’t Tracy’s only offense today.
With the game still tied 6-6 in the bottom of the eighth the Astros unintentionally-intentionally walk Giambi to load the bases to face newly acquired Kevin Kouzmanoff with two outs in the inning. Kouzmanoff was 0-for-4 going into that at-bat and Tracy still had Helton on the bench, among others. Tracy lets Kouzmanoff bat and Kouzmanoff lines out to short. Helton is still on the bench and the Rockies go into the ninth tied 6-6.
On the radio the rationale was that Tracy would want to save Helton for the ninth in case they need him then? Does anyone really understand how completely idiotic that is? If Tracy uses Helton in the bottom of the inning and even if Helton draws a walk the Rockies HAVE THE LEAD GOING INTO THE NINTH. They wouldn’t even need another at-bat. Even if they don’t score a run in the eighth what is to say they even get another opportunity today to use Helton with runners in scoring position?
The assumptions with this stupidity is that not only will the Rockies NOT score with the bases juiced, but if they do they will blow the lead in the top of the ninth and with those assumptions Tracy and the KOA team would have you believe Helton will be used in the ninth with runners in scoring position.
I know I am not expressing myself clearly but I just don’t understand the need by guys like Tracy to “save” players for late game situations. It is the same as not using your best pitcher (often the team’s closer) at any point during the game unless it is the ninth inning. If it is the seventh inning and the bases are loaded and your team is up by one run who do you want on the mound? Often a manager, Tracy for sure, will use his “seventh inning guy” and leave guys like Rafael Betancourt, Huston Street or Matt Lindstrom in the bullpen. But if it is the ninth inning and the bases are empty with the bottom of the opponents order due up and Tracy has a three run lead, well, that is when you use your best pitcher! It is a save situation after all.
Managers in general, and Tracy in particular, do not value an out and seemingly do not understand that your last scoring chance might come in the sixth inning, you might lose a lead in the seventh inning and saving your best hitter who is getting a day off just in case you need him in the ninth are asinine ways of thinking.
Let’s say the Rockies don’t score in the eighth (actually, they didn’t) and then the Astros take the lead in the ninth by one run. Now the Rockies have Alfonzo and then Ellis leading off the inning. Both Alfonzo and Ellis have on-base averages under .300 in 2011 and the likelihood of them getting on base is less than 30% much less one of them being in scoring position for Helton who presumably would hit in the pitcher’s spot. Tracy was saving Helton in the event the game got to the bottom of the ninth and there was a runner in scoring position, whether the Rockies were trailing or leading.
Why not just try to take the lead in the eighth?
I am rambling at this point and hope my points come across above. Tracy is simply a horrible manager. Horrible.
The next time he brings in Matt Belisle or someone like JC Romero in the sixth with the game tight ask yourself why he doesn’t bring in his best pitcher? The next time Tracy lets a pitcher bat and then in the next half inning he doesn’t even leave the dugout ask yourself why is Tracy still managing this team? And the next time he sends a guy like Ryan Spilborghs to pinch hit in the eighth inning with runners in scoring position and someone like Helton or Smith is on the bench ask yourself why is Tracy still managing this team?
I ask myself these questions almost daily.
Follow me on Twitter and I’ll also mention how dumb it is when Tulo or CarGo attempts to lay down a bunt.
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12 comments
CodenameDuchess
August 24, 2011 at 11:05 PM (UTC -6)
A bit rambling but great post as always. You guys have brought your A game lately. I cannot begin to tell you how refreshing and important I believe your website has become. Fact is there is very little critical analysis of the Rockies. KOA and Root Sports will never bite the hand that feeds them. The local papers are packed with old school thinkers just like Tracy. The Fan only cares about football. Tracy/O’Dowd/Monforts need to know that there are knowledgeable people playing watch dog and through this wonderful social experience called the internet are doing their part to hold the organization accountable. Cheers to all of you.
A few quick points…..
It’s not just Tracy that refuses to deploy his best pitchers in tight but early situations. That is pretty standard league wide. Guys are occasionally brought in for the 4/5 out save but even that is rare until the post season.
I think the others issues you mentioned are much more important and much less forgivable.
Travis Lay
August 25, 2011 at 8:12 AM (UTC -6)
Yep, it isn’t only Tracy that does this idiotic things, other managers do too. But Being this is a Rockies website I pick on the team’s manager. I believe guys like Tracy and Jim Leyland in Detroit lead the way in stupidity.
There are managers out there that at least are not afraid to think outside the box. Guys like Joe Maddon and Tony LaRussa immediately jump to mind.
Rockies17
August 25, 2011 at 12:46 AM (UTC -6)
Hey Travis -
I agree with you on a lot of the points, and Tracy definitely relies on stupid rules like “seventh-inning guy” or “I want a speedster batting leadoff,” and I wish he would sometimes apply more common sense. But again, this isn’t quite a fair critique on the “idiocy of Tracy” but more the “idiocy of baseball managers” as we see it with so many other team: low OBP speedsters batting leadoff who should be batting eighth, and the insistent use of closers for the ninth inning alone.
As for some of the individual points about today:
1. The Cook bunt with Alfonzo on second: I don’t hate this as much as you do. Alfonzo is arguably our slowest player, and probably will not score on a single. Given the fact that pinch-hitters usually suck (I bet the career PH avg. is < .230), it is hardly a travesty to use a pitcher who is an experienced bunter, to move the slowest guy (and a possible insurance run) into scoring position. Now the fact that Cook failed makes the move look horrible, but had the bunt been laid down, it might have been a good plan. Let's say that EY was going to get a solid single up the middle. In your scenario, Herrera hits for Cook and most likely gets out (let's face it, 90% chance he gets out), and then the subsequent EY single would score 0 runs with Alfonzo's poor speed. If Cook's bunt had worked, the EY single would score 2 runs.
You are basically arguing that a sacrifice bunt is ALWAYS a poor offensive move, but I disagree, and I bet stats will show that in many cases (especially with a slow guy at second) it could improve the chance of scoring. I'd bet statistically if we simulate the game 1000 times, PH Herrera vs. letting Cook bunt is close to a wash.
2. Kouzmanoff batting with the bases loaded: I hated seeing him hit here (I admit), but again pinch hitters (even good pinch hitters) almost always suck and you have to be careful when using them. Helton is a career .323 hitter with a .973 OPS, but a career .193 pinch-hitter with a .663 OPS – remember that the next time you are begging him to be pinch-hit for a player who started the game. And Kouzmanoff came within inches of hitting a 2-RBI single which would have again made this move not seem so bad. We have no reason to believe that Kouzmanoff is a complete garbage hitter (yet), and I only feel that you should PH for a position player if (1) the position player is a garbage hitter or (2) you need possible power like a HR and the position player has none.
I realize that this argument is different than the one Tracy may have been employing – I do agree that if his rationale for not using Helton was to "save" him, then that is idiotic. Just like you should use your closer in the seventh – if you have a PH that gives you a better chance to win the game, use him. What I'm arguing is that leaving Kouzmanoff in the game wasn't actually a bad move, statistically, since he is probably more likely to get a hit as a .250 career hitter compared to Todd as a .193 PH.
Travis Lay
August 25, 2011 at 8:26 AM (UTC -6)
Herrera’s OBP is .300 on the year so he has a 30% chance of reaching base. I would have used Helton, if I was managing, to attempt to retake the lead.
And, yes, the only time a bunt is a good play is when a pitcher is going to remain in the game and they might hit into a double play. Otherwise, I hate it.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/07/empirical_analy_1.php
A really good piece with data on how much moving runners up a base helps a team and often trading a base for an out doesn’t improve the teams chances of scoring by much at all. In yesterday’s case, moving runners are 1st and 2nd with 1 out to second and third with 2 outs reduces the teams chances of scoring by .3. I would much rather someone pinch hit, every single time, if the pitcher is done for the day. I would never let a pitcher hit when he is getting pulled in the next half inning.
I do understand that pinch hitting is not easy, but I want Helton batting in the eighth with RISP rather than hoping he gets another chance the rest of the day.
Rockies17
August 25, 2011 at 11:35 AM (UTC -6)
I do like that piece- thanks for providing the data. You get your .3 figure from looking at the “run expectancy” totals, but more importantly we want to look at the probability of scoring 1+ run in order to take the lead (so table 5). Based on batting order with the #9 hitter coming up and 1 out and 1st and 2nd, there is a .336 chance of scoring 1 run or more in the NL while after bunting the chance becomes .290. And even in the AL the chance of the former was only .425 (and an AL #9 hitter is probably better than a pinch-hitter). So we are talking about a .1 probability drop-off max, and the article itself concedes that since this is aggregate data, a move in the negligible .1 range in many cases (like if you have an exceptionally slow runner at second) could be beneficial. So I honestly don’t see how this move is a travesty – I agree that it may not have been the best move, but it seems to be a wash to me.
As for PH-ing Helton – I would have enjoyed seeing him hit for Cook in the sixth in the former situation, but I still don’t see how it could be beneficial to have him PH for Kouzmanoff given the fact that he really isn’t a great PH (.193 AVG) and it’s tough to imagine that he has a better than 25% chance of getting a hit. And again, I’m not necessarily saying that it would be a bad move to PH Helton, just that it is likely a wash again.
I’m just having a tough time calling Tracy an “idiot” for those two moves which statistically don’t seem to be indefensible (I’d be quicker to call him an idiot for continually starting -0.1 offensive WAR Young instead of 1.5 offensive WAR Smith).
Rockies17
August 25, 2011 at 12:32 PM (UTC -6)
Here’s an interesting article on how pinch-hitting for a position player (even if it’s a mediocre/bad hitter being replaced with a good hitter) is often a poor strategy:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5404
Logan Burdine
August 25, 2011 at 1:11 PM (UTC -6)
I think the thing that is being missed here is that you guys are pointing to scoring probability studies that have been basically proven to be correct, yet Tracy would never apply the logic that either of you are applying. When he leaves Cook in to bunt, he isn’t looking at scoring probability. He’s just doing it because that is what he was taught. He is completely unable to think outside the box. I’ll go hump Joe Madden’s leg now.
Rockies17
August 25, 2011 at 7:27 PM (UTC -6)
Agreed- And I admit that my defense of Tracy’s decisions in this case is not a defense of whatever rationale he used to make them. I tend to like Tracy (thought mostly out of nostalgia for him being the great ’09 savior), but lately I really did wish we had a thinking man’s manager like Maddon.
Charlie
August 25, 2011 at 10:12 AM (UTC -6)
THANK YOU. So glad that there are other Rockies fans out there that are frustrated with the way the team is being managed this year. Love the blog and this article, thanks for keeping the Rockies management honest (or trying to, at least).
That said, you guys really need a copy editor sometimes….like I said, I couldn’t agree more with your point, but it’s distracting when there are mistakes like “lets” vs “let’s” in articles on the site. (“The next time Tracy let’s a pitcher bat…”)
But that’s a minor point. You guys rock. Would love to help out with the site if you ever need it.
Travis Lay
August 25, 2011 at 10:15 AM (UTC -6)
Ya, I apologize for the poor grammar…my mom…and English major in college already gave me a tongue lashing this morning. For some reason MS Word (where I do all the writing then copy/paste) changed those automatically…
Thanks for the read and after today’s piece you can bet I will double check my lets vs let’s going forward!
David Martin
August 26, 2011 at 11:39 PM (UTC -6)
Spot on Travis. Great article.
Simone
August 28, 2011 at 6:20 PM (UTC -6)
I just want to point out that Ty Wigginton is 4-32 since August 10th. That’s a BA of .125
Is Tracy going to send him down to AAA? Stewart was batting over .200 in his last trip up to Denver…but of course he was sent down in favor of Wiggy.
Has anyone been able to make any sense of this?