The Rockies need Jhoulys to take the next step.
On Monday, our esteemed commander-in-chief at the SweetSpot, David Schoenfield, declared the Rockies to be the hardest team to predict for the upcoming season. I completely agree. I have made no secret of the fact that I don’t particularly like the policy behind the decisions that have been made this off-season. I don’t think chalking up last season to a lack of character is going to fix anything. However, I still have some hope that the Rox will surprise some folks this upcoming season. Of course, it could also be a complete disaster. Question marks abound.
One thing that stands out about Schoenfield’s piece is the age of the current lineup. I realized that they had a bunch of players past their primes, but hadn’t really taken the time to truly appreciate it. Let’s just say that there will probably be some pretty mean games of bridge played in the clubhouse this year. Still, if the group somehow manages to stay healthy, they should be productive offensively. The good news is that their best players are still very young. Tulo and CarGo may feel out of place when Casey Blake wants to play some INXS in the clubhouse, but the future of the franchise remains in good hands.
The bigger problem, as we’ve said a thousand times, is the starting rotation. Aside from Chacin, we really have no idea who will fill out the rest of the rotation. Whoever it is, they will almost certainly be one of the most inexperienced starting staffs in baseball. Chacin and Hammel are the only ones that have accumulated significant innings in the bigs. The rest of the crew is an enigma. They could be pretty solid; they could be putrid. We will just have to wait and see. In the meantime, let’s engage in some wild speculation, shall we? Basically, if I had my druthers (I certainly do not and will never) this is the rotation I would start the season with. Well, it’s the first four anyway. I have no idea about the fifth spot – none whatsoever.
1. Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin had problems keeping the ball in the park last year, despite an Aaron Cook-esque ground ball percentage. Some of that is attributable to luck and we should see a regression from his 12.2% home run rate. However, the increase of dingers can also be blamed somewhat on the fact that he wasn’t missing as many bats. His strike outs per every nine innings saw a sharp decline from 2010 to 2011. Now, I’m usually a fan of pitching to contact, but it defeats the purpose when you forgo strikeouts for homeruns. Still, Chacin was very solid in 2011. He’s still young, he still has electric stuff, and most importantly, he has learned how to pitch in Colorado. I expect a big year from Jhoulys.
2. Juan Nicasio
The reluctance to include Nicasio in the rotation at the start of the year is understandable. It’s hard to see how anyone could get back on the mound after what happened to him last season. In all likelihood, he has an uphill fight to get over that fear. However, by all accounts, he is 100% physically and I saw enough last year to make me think he is probably their second best pitcher right now. Spring training will be a trial run, but if Juan can get over the mental hurdles, I see no reason why they won’t break camp with him in the number two slot. If he can refine his control just a tad, he has a chance to be special.
3. Drew Pomeranz
I doubt Pomeranz will be an innings eater for the Rox next year. In his first minor league season, he was right at 100, so to expect him to make a big jump this year is a stretch. It would also probably be a little irresponsible. Pomeranz’s talent makes him a candidate to start the season anyway. Is it too soon? Probably. But, that’s where the Rockies are at with this staff and they didn’t trade away the best pitcher in franchise history just to wait around for Pomeranz. This spring, if he can replicate what he did in four starts last year (2.59 FIP) then he has a great chance to crack the rotation.
4. Jason Hammel
Coming into last year, there was much talk about the various changes Hammel made in the off-season. Whatever those changes were, Jason needs to drop them, immediately. I liked 2009 and 2010 Hammel much better than I liked 2011 Hammel. The Rockies need the guy that gave them 3.9 WAR two years in a row, not the guy that walked 3.59 batters per every nine innings in 2011. However, with the inexperience that is in this team’s rotation, you almost have to give Hammel another chance. He’s sturdy, almost a lock to throw 170+ innings, and he could teach the youngsters a lot about pitching in Colorado.
The Rest
Alex White
White is intriguing because of his ability to get ground balls. You can’t really put any stock in his performance with the Rox last year because he was coming off a finger injury. Plus, he is still very, very raw. But, when he has his splitter and sinker working, he can be tough. Not to mention, those are usually good pitches for a guy in Coors. The biggest problem with Alex is that we pretty much have no idea if he can adjust to the demands of throwing sinkers in Colorado. Some guys can do it, some can’t. Just ask Mike Hampton. The safe bet here is that Alex starts in the Springs. If he can survive pitching hell, he could definitely get some starts with the big club. (Please, Monforts, buy the Sky Sox a humidor.)
Esmil Rogers
Be honest. Do you really want to have to watch Esmil Rogers make another start for the Rox? Let’s hope he doesn’t. His 7.05 ERA in 13 starts was downright sinful. Nobody should be subjected to that again.
Tyler Chatwood
Chatwood started 25 games for the Angels in 2011, so that’s encouraging. However, when you look at the numbers, it’s hard to believe the Angels actually let him start 25 games. He can get a ground ball here and there, but has struggled with control since he was in rookie ball. I see Chatwood as a AAAA pitcher and nothing more. But, in this day and age, AAAA will usually land you at the back end of someone’s rotation, and I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if he grabs that spot with the Rox. I can live with that. Very few teams are throwing anything formidable out there with their fifth best starter.
Guillermo Moscosco
A lot of people are going to want Moscosco to start strictly because he had a 3.38 ERA in 21 starts with the A’s last year. I’m warning you now – don’t fall into that trap. I’ve said it before, but it’s worth repeating, Moscosco in Coors Field is a recipe for disaster. The Rockies have never found success with fly ball pitchers and Moscosco is a prodigious fly ball pitcher. 26.8% ground balls last season is an eye opener. Combine that with an inability to strike out hitters and you’ve got a guy that’s not going to be very good in Colorado.
Josh Outman
Outman would probably be a better choice than Moscosco, but not by much. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats, has a ground ball percentage below 40%, and walks too many hitters. I’m still not sure what O’Dowd saw in Outman and Moscosco, and I’m actually hoping that we don’t have to find out. If the Rox try to give the ball to either, it will be like trying to jam a square peg into a round hole.
Jaime Moyer
Jaime Moyer? As what, the new pitching coach? Great story, but I’d rather the Rox win some games next year.
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17 comments
Mike
February 1, 2012 at 8:51 PM (UTC -6)
I completely agree about the guys that came from Oakland. What I am wondering is whether somebody like Christian Friedreich might be able to get healthy and pitch OK. With respect to (no)Outman and Moscoso, the last extreme flyball pitcher I can remember the Rox employing was (ugh) Denny Neagle. That did not work out too well, as I recall.
Logan Burdine
February 2, 2012 at 2:21 PM (UTC -6)
Hard to say on Friedrich. He’s regressed so much over the last two years in AA. Some of that is injuries, but if you read between the lines of what the Rox say about him, want to is a problem as well.
Pat
February 2, 2012 at 7:58 AM (UTC -6)
If you look at the lineup and the pitching rotation, this is a bridge year. The rotation is very young and very inexperienced. I would be surprised if they ended up being a solid rotation this year. To me, it looks like the plan is to put them through the ringer this year so they’ll be better next year (or at leasts we’ll know who can pitch). The lineup is capable of putting up a few runs (when healthy), but I would be surprised if the starting lineup on September 1 is the same as April 6. It looks like some of the geriatrics will keep a few spots warm while the likes of Arenado, Rosario and LeMahieu get a little more experience under their belts, albeit at different levels.
The current lineup will try to put up enough runs to take some of the pressure off the pitchers, but this season is about developing, or better yet, sorting out who can pitch at the bigs and who can’t.
Logan H
February 2, 2012 at 8:04 AM (UTC -6)
I have to agree 100% with you. We both seem to see eye to eye on what this team looks like.
Logan Burdine
February 2, 2012 at 2:23 PM (UTC -6)
I think this lineup will definitely look a lot different in September. What happens until then, though? I’m hoping it’s a bridge year, like you said. That’s not necessarily worst case scenario though, and that’s a little scary.
Logan H
February 2, 2012 at 8:03 AM (UTC -6)
Granted there were some horrible bad luck and strange things that happened to the Rockies rotation last season, but nevertheless the Rockies team E.R.A. average over the last 5 years is 4.37. Last season every team but 1 (Detroit) in the playoffs all had A Team E.R.A of 4.0 or lower. Playing in a hitters ballpark like Coors can be challenging to meet such goals however playing teams within our division San Fran, San Diego, LA can and SHOULD somewhat balance that out being all those teams play in pitcher friendly ballparks. Scoring runs I’m not worried about because I know these guys are going to finish in the top 10 again in runs scored in the MLB, but if the Rocks are going to be a playoff team and contend its going to come down to our pitching again. Its not the pitchers that have me wondering if thats possible, its Bob Apodaca. Apodaca to me just can’t seem to ever ignite consistency in the rotation throughout a 162 game season. Whatever was going on with Ubaldo last season injuries or not, I think Apodaca was trying to fix something that wasn’t broken which led him to his major disappointment in 2011 and ultimately being traded. Tampa Bay had one of if not THE youngest rotations last season and they finished with a Team E.R.A of 3.58 and was a playoff team. If a team that gets paid in sunblock and wheat thins can manage to make the playoffs(in the AL EAST nonetheless!!!) with a young pitching staff, then theres no reason why with the Rocks loaded to provide run support that Apodaca can’t coach the guys up and find a stability among them. If the Rockies can’t get results that look promising, its time to ax Apodaca and get someone else in here. Plain and Simple
Corey
February 6, 2012 at 1:27 PM (UTC -6)
I agree. I don’t think Apodaca intends on changing any part of his poor strategies.
Kevin Rehberg
February 2, 2012 at 3:25 PM (UTC -6)
Fitting that the team’s mascot is a dinosaur….. half the team is 35+
http://westsideculture.mlblogs.com/2012/02/02/colorado-rockies-spring-training/
matt
February 2, 2012 at 7:54 PM (UTC -6)
oh yeah de la rosa doesnt play for the rockies or anything
Logan Burdine
February 2, 2012 at 8:03 PM (UTC -6)
Just talking about the start of the season. Betting we don’t see DLR until June.
Montana Steve
February 3, 2012 at 8:33 AM (UTC -6)
I think this team has always been hard to predict, for as long as I’ve been a fan since the original Rockies took the field. I go into every season now with what I call cautious optimism.
Logan Burdine
February 3, 2012 at 10:13 AM (UTC -6)
I love that you are still using that nickname. I think we need to hand out some more this year.
Question though — are you cautiously optimistic right now?
Mike
February 3, 2012 at 10:00 PM (UTC -6)
I started the last two years cautiously optimistic myself. This year, I am having a hard time getting there. I kind of suspect that Helton will wind up retiring before the year is out (voluntarily or otherwise) and he may well be joined by several others….and the young pitchers other than Chacin and maybe Pomeranz are in the 4/5/6th starter range (which would probably look ugly in Coors!). Oh yeah, and we get to watch Jim Tracy “manage” the team for another year…
Montana Steve
February 6, 2012 at 8:39 AM (UTC -6)
Right now, I’d say yes. I’m reading that we got Guthrie for Hammel and Lindstrom. My first reaction is that this is like trading a bag of rocks for a bag of dirt.
Logan Burdine
February 6, 2012 at 2:45 PM (UTC -6)
I think so too, but apparently, we are in the minority on that. At least, that’s what I’m getting from Twitter. Post coming soon.
Jim
February 3, 2012 at 2:56 PM (UTC -6)
I agree with you for the most part on the Rox rotation. I hope Nicasio can return to be productive but I would have to say he is extremely mentally tough if he can come right out of the gate and be a productive starter. I think that Pomeranz and White will be given every chance to start because the Rockies gave up so much for them (athough Ubaldo did stink it up at times last year). I would also not be suprised to see Jamie Moyer up with the big club if for no other reason than to just help the youngsters develop. I guess that will depend on if his soft tossing ways can still get a few outs. Of course Jason Hammel will still be Jason Hammel, the Rockies will report that he is about to turn the corner and then at the end of the year he will be 9-12 with a 4.89 ERA. It will be Deja Vu all over again. Rox will win 74 – 78 games with this staff and Tulo and Cargo will be another year older.
Jerry
February 5, 2012 at 6:39 AM (UTC -6)
Jim, looks like you’re not sharing the ‘cautious optimism’ of Montana Steve. I’m not either. Your target of 74-78 wins sounds about right given all the uncertainties of the staff. Even with some good breaks and evidence of progress … esp. by the younger pitchers … the team will be fortunate to be within sniffing-distance of .500.