Cuddyer brings his bag of tricks to Colorado
The Rockies have made four major position-player moves so far this offseason. Additional significant transactions seem unlikely. To make a pre-season assessment of what these moves will mean for the offensive output of the club, we compared the acquired players to the guys they will replace. The comparison is encouraging. First though, let’s review the individual players.
Michael Cuddyer, age 32, was signed as a free agent in December to a three-year deal reportedly worth $30,000,000. Cuddyer came-up through the Twins organization. Drafted in the first round in 1997, he first appeared with the big league club in 2001, and was a mainstay for the Twins until he signed with the Rockies this offseason. In 2011, Cuddyer batted .284 with a .805 OPS, and he was an American League All Star. He is expected to anchor one of the corner outfield positions for the Rockies, and he projects to be a substantial offensive upgrade over last year’s combination of Seth Smith and Ryan Spilborghs. Cuddyer could well be an important, long-term asset for the ball club. Maybe not a Larry Walker-type acquisition, but he should be an impact player. We expect Cuddyer to bat fifth or sixth.
Casey Blake, age 38, was signed as a free agent to a one-year deal. Blake is a third baseman, solid defensively, and a disciplined (but far from spectacular) hitter. He has played for five organizations He spent 2011 with the Dodgers where, in an injury shortened season, be hit for a .252 average and a .713 OPS. Although nearing the end of his career, Blake projects to be an offensive upgrade over last year’s dreaded Stewart/Wiggington combo. We suspect the Rockies intend for Blake to hold down third base only until Nolan Arenado takes over. If Blake falters before Arenado is ready, look for Jordan Pacheco to be given significant time at third base. Expect Blake to bat in the seven or eight hole (with Hernandez in the other slot).
Marco Scutaro, age 36, was acquired from the Red Sox in exchange for RHP Clayton Mortenson. Scutaro played shortstop for the Sox in 2011 where he batted .299 with a .781 OPS. Because the Rockies already have a pretty good shortstop, he projects as the Rockies everyday second baseman. Scutaro, who should be a big upgrade offensively, will be a critical component to the Rockies success in 2012. While there is talk of Scutaro batting lead-off, we look for him to bat second.
Ramon Hernandez, age 35, is a veteran catcher who was signed as a free agent shortly after the Rockies traded Chris Iannetta to the Angels for Tyler Chatwood. 2012 will be Hernandez’ fourteenth year in the major leagues. He played for four clubs before joining the Rockies, most recently with the Reds. Hernandez has a career batting average of .266, and a respectable career OPS of .749. Last season, he hit for a .282 average with a .788 OPS. Good defensive catcher, good with pitchers, and a major league hitter. Compared to Chris Iannetta, Hernandez is a better hitter whose defense is similar to Iannetta’s. Hernandez is definitely a quality pick-up who may even be able to teach Wilin Rosario how to keep the ball from popping out of his mitt.
All four additions bat and throw right. Dan O’Dowd proclaims that all four are solid citizens and good clubhouse guys–we have no reason to doubt the GM on these points. But will they materially improve the offense? The answer is clearly yes–on paper.
We compiled the WAR (wins above replacement) for each player who was the primary position player (or platoon players) for last year. The WAR numbers were obtained from www.baseball-reference.com. For those new to the statistic (including us), the general guideline for the WAR stat is that anything over 2 indicates “starter” quality and anything less than 0 is a AAA or AAAA player. The statistic includes a player’s defense as well as his offense. For the Rockies position players as a team in 2011, including the three clearly superior players (Tulo, CarGo and Helton), the WAR average was less than 2, indicating that our team as a whole were “backups” under the WAR analysis.
The Rockies had three black hole positions, not just the obvious two at second and third bases. Left field (Spilly and Smith) was just as bad as second and third. We were not surprised by the results at second and third, but we expected the left fielders, especially Smith, to grade-out higher than they did.
If we had included the WAR numbers of EY, Nelson, and Kouzmanoff in the team average, the 2011 results would be even worse. We did not give any consideration to the numbers of the September call-ups. We also did not include rest-type substitutions, such as Giambi and Wiggington at first base.
We then did the same WAR analysis for the 2012 projected starting lineup, using all players’ 2011 numbers. The results are nothing stunning, but the 2012 lineup is clearly better. The WAR of the four new players indicates that they should be on a big league roster (and maybe even starting), unlike most of the players they replaced. The big question mark, of course, is health. All of the new players are on the wrong side of 30 and large numbers of missed games due to injuries or planned days off could limit any noticeable improvement or even result in regression.
Cuddyer and Scutaro are very major upgrades. Blake is a clear upgrade at third, which is due in large part to the incompetence of Ian Stewart and Ty Wiggington. Hernandez’ WAR is slightly lower than Iannetta’s. While he doesn’t quite have Iannetta’s power, Hernandez’ average is higher, and his OPS is significantly better than Iannetta’s. All four acquisitions look very good in February.
WAR ANALYSIS
2011 Rockies starters and 2012 projected Rockies starters
|
2011 |
2012 (projected line up with 2011 numbers) |
|||||
| Pos | Player | WAR | Pos | Player | WAR | |
| C | Iannetta |
2.6 |
C | Hernandez |
2 |
|
| 1B | Helton |
2.7 |
1B | Helton |
2.7 |
|
| 2B | Ellis/Herrera |
0.1 |
2B | Scutaro |
1.4 |
|
| 3B | Wiggington/Stewart |
-0.6 |
3B | Blake |
0.6 |
|
| SS | Tulo |
5.8 |
SS | Tulo |
5.8 |
|
| RF | CarGo |
2.6 |
RF | CarGo |
2.6 |
|
| CF | Fowler |
1.2 |
CF | Fowler |
1.2 |
|
| LF | Smith/Spilborghs |
-0.3 |
LF | Cuddyer |
3 |
|
| WAR Sum |
14.1 |
WAR sum |
19.3 |
|||
| WAR/pos |
1.766902 |
WAR/pos |
2.4125 |
|||
WAR values were compiled from www.baseball-reference.com and were provided free of charge.
The View From 132 is the joint effort of the father and sons team of Ned Giles, Brendan Giles and Kevin Giles.
Kevin played collegiate baseball at Georgetown University. He will soon graduate from CU Law School, where he is on the board of editors for the University of Colorado Law Review. He is currently clerking for Colorado Supreme Court Justice Brian Boatright.
Brendan lives in Centennial, CO where he brews beer and cheers on all of the Denver teams. He has followed the Rockies since the very beginning in 1993 and even met his wife on Opening Day in 2003. Brendan has a PhD in immunology, and currently researches autoimmune disease at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus.
Ned is a farmer and rancher who works as a lawyer to pay for the family’s Rockies’ season tickets.
The guys chose their pen name from the Coors Field section from which they watch the Rockies. All three of them think they can still play baseball, but no one else does. Finally, they long for the day when Cuban cigars are once again legal.
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14 comments
Rich Casson
February 15, 2012 at 3:11 PM (UTC -6)
Father Ned may think he “can still play baseball”, but from personal knowledge and obversation, I can attest to the fact that he never could play baseball. Good glove, mediocre arm and no hit was his scouting report. His envy of the offensive skills of yours truly was epic. He simply couldn’t understand it and fumed constantly. As Greg Maddux so astutely said, “Chicks dig the long ball”, and needless to say, when Ned came to the plate, only a few bored male fans were watching.
Logan Burdine
February 15, 2012 at 3:13 PM (UTC -6)
Outstanding comment. Ned, you might want to rein in your friends.
Will Payne
February 15, 2012 at 6:23 PM (UTC -6)
The WAR analysis is very interesting. In light of the movie “Moneyball,” it makes you wonder how much GM’s nowadays look at stats like these when they make moves. Go Rockies!
Logan Burdine
February 16, 2012 at 11:26 AM (UTC -6)
Will, this article might be of interest to you:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2012-sabermetric-teams-the-market-for-saber-players/
Logan Burdine
February 16, 2012 at 11:27 AM (UTC -6)
Also, come by more often. You’ll find a lot of that here.
Joshua Shapiro
February 15, 2012 at 7:23 PM (UTC -6)
What’s the average age of these guys? I know Arenado is the up an comer at 3B, but he’s maybe a year away. Scutaro can’t be the long term answer at 2B right? Cuddyer is a solid pick up, but it seems like these guys are more or less place holders for the year until some of the younger talent develops. Speaking as a Cubs fan, I’ve seen this strategy in action for the last 30 years. The NL West looks wide open, but AZ has added some serious pitching and has some thump developing in the infield so it should be interesting to see how it all plays out, esp with the Padres having the top farm system in baseball with guys that will be arriving in short order.
Eric
February 16, 2012 at 12:45 AM (UTC -6)
Unfortunately it still points to an under .500 season, and that’s not even considering the WAR expectations for the rotation. I doubt they look as optimistic as this analysis; however, there is a better chance for the rotation to outperform it’s expected WAR, while the starting lineup is more likely to under-perform due to either injury or age-related regression. I read somewhere else that in the offseason the going rate for an increase of one win above replacement was about 5 mil, how do the Rockies measure up here? If I had to guess I’d say they overpaid.
Brendan Giles
February 19, 2012 at 1:25 PM (UTC -6)
$5M for one WAR unit is an interesting gague. Using that, the Rockies actually did pretty good (using the contracts that I could dig up):
2B: 2011 players: WAR 0.1; Salary (including Jose Lopez) $5M
2012 players: WAR 1.4; Salary $6M
WAR increase of 1.3 for $1M
3B: 2011 players: WAR -0.6; Salary $5.8M (plus what we are still paying Wiggington)
2012 players: WAR 0.6; Salary $2M
WAR increase of 1.2 and paying $3.8M LESS
LF: 2011 players: WAR -0.3; Salary $2.3M
2012 players: WAR 3; Salary 10.5M
WAR increase of 3.3 for $8.2M
Overall black hole positions: Total WAR Increase of 5.8 for $5.4M. So at least for 2B, 3B and LF, the Rockies improved and spent less than $1M per WAR unit increase. Seems like a relative bargain (assuming no drastic decreases in production of course) but it is likely a function of terrible play last year than great work by the front office this year.
Ned Giles
February 16, 2012 at 9:00 AM (UTC -6)
Joshua–The additions are clearly older players. Typically, free agents (three of the four) are older. Scutaro is also older but fills a big need at second, at least for a year. I suspect the Rockies brass is looking for Pacheco possibly to play second after 2012 if they don’t want, or decide not to pay, Scutaro. I am with you–the Diamondbacks look to have gotten stronger. They are my early favorite to take the NL West again.
Eric–I agree with you with but with slightly more optimism. The Rocks look like a .500 club to me. However, with a little better pitching, they may be in the race in September. The View From 132 will be looking at the Rockies’ pitching in the near future on the Blake Street Bulletin, and we will be doing an analysis which you should find interesting.
Ned Giles
February 16, 2012 at 11:14 AM (UTC -6)
Will–The View From 132 has a theory about what stats the Rockies’ management may have been looking at this off-season in collecting new pitchers. We are putting together a piece that explores these statistics. You should find it interesting. Look for it sometime in the next week or two.
Lisa Spear
February 16, 2012 at 4:57 PM (UTC -6)
Nice blog, Ned, but I’m not so sure I can take a whole article on stats. I’ll wait for something less tedious. Where is this section 137, anyway – left field? Od ;-}
Ned Giles
February 17, 2012 at 9:26 AM (UTC -6)
Lisa–Section 137 in Coors Field is on the third-base line. Why the interest in 137? Sorry the piece was too stat heavy for you. In comparing players, stats provide the only objective measure for evaluating various categories of performance, and are generally preferred over a gestalt-type approach. The first 20 minutes of the movie Moneyball shows a humorous example of the differences between the two approaches.
Lisa Spear
February 17, 2012 at 1:27 PM (UTC -6)
Saw Moneyball – liked it loads. Stats are good, but they make the game too sterile for me. Sorry about misidentifying your section. Guess that’s how you missed my oh-so-subtle poke at coming out of left field. Keep on blogging.
Catch ya later! (Catch – another baseball reference. Get it?)
Kevin Rehberg
February 17, 2012 at 3:05 PM (UTC -6)
I like Cuddyer, still I dont see the Rox having a great season.
http://westsideculture.mlblogs.com/2012/02/02/colorado-rockies-spring-training/