Fans are begging for Colvin after Fowler's slow start
Here we are with a week left in April and fans are starting to ask for Tyler Colvin in centerfield over Dexter Fowler already. I have seen both Patrick Saunders and Troy Renck answer questions on Twitter about Colvin replacing Fowler. Last year Dex couldn’t catch a break with Jim Tracy and now some of the fans are turning on Dex. The guys on Root Sports continue to talk about Colvin’s athleticism and his ability to play all over the fans patience level has been readjusted due to the short and “must win every game” NFL schedule. The baseball schedule is long. Really long. Every player goes through a slump and just because Colvin has started off hotter than Dex does not make him a better option.
Let’s compare.
Both players are in their age 26 season. Colvin has amassed over 2,000 plate appearances in five minor league seasons compared to under 1,800 plate appearances for Fowler in seven season (a few of those “seasons” are less than 30 games). In Colvin’s minor league career his triple slash was .256/.270/.478 compared to Fowler’s .300/.395/.457. Their minor league stats are important because that gives us a starting point and this starting point says Dexter is the better player. We all know that minor league stats do not always translate into big league performance but it does give us more meat in our comparison as both are still a bit green.
This season, in only 32 plate appearances, Colvin is batting .323/.344/.516 and has Rockies fans fawning over his bat. Compare that to Fowler’s early line of .222/.327/.422 in a few more games worth of at-bats and it is easy to see why fans are starting to get restless. But hold on one minute! We can’t base our judgment on just a few weeks of baseball; we need to look at a larger picture.
In Fowler’s career (1,667 plate appearances) he is batting .261/.354/.412. That on-base percentage is a nice number and something that Fowler and the Rockies should continue to showcase at the top of the lineup. Combined with his speed he is a threat to score runs since he is on base at a high level (the MLB average for OBP usually floats around .330).
In Colvin’s career (669 plate appearances) he is batting .221/.278/.426. Colvin has more pop as he has 10 more home runs than Fowler in 1,000 fewer chances but his average and on-base percentage are awful. Colvin strikes out more than three times for every base on balls that he draws. Colvin has 173 strikeouts in his MLB career and only 135 hits. In fact, if you add his walks to his hits you have 162 times on base versus 173 whiffs.
(Fowler has been on base 570 times vs 369 K’s.)
Advanced defensive metrics say Fowler is subpar in the field...I don't believe that.
If you think any of that offense above is due to his park, you are wrong. Fowler’s career OPS+ (which factors in the park) is 96 while Colvin’s is 86.
According to Baseball-Reference.com Colvin has been worth -0.5 wins over his career (that’s right, he has cost his teams a half of a win and that includes his 2010 season in which he hit 20 home runs). Fowler has been worth 2.6 wins in his four years with the Rockies. Fangraphs.com offers a different calculation on WAR and on Fangraphs Fowler has been worth 5.3 wins over his career while Colvin has been worth only 1.0.
Finally we have the most important piece of the advantage of starting Fowler over Colvin: defense. Sure Colvin can stand in centerfield and portray a centerfielder, but he cannot play the position as well as Fowler.
According to UZR/150 on Fangraphs Colvin has been worth -22.7 runs when playing centerfield over his career. Fowler hasn’t scored great according to UZR/150 either but his cost of -11.2 runs over his career isn’t as bad as Colvin. In fact, when looking at Baseball Info Solutions plus/minus ratings both players score poorly with Fowler performing slightly better (but still average or below) in the field.
Defensive metrics are still in their infancy and after watching Fowler night after night I find it hard to believe he is rated as poorly as he is in the outfield.
Fangraphs polls its readers on a yearly basis and when looking at how the fans rate the two players Fowler is significantly better earning a rating of 63 over his career versus Colvin’s 48 rating.
Colvin is not a better option than Fowler in centerfield.
However I will say this: writing this has soured me a bit on Dex. I almost always start a piece like this with an expected result. In this case I expected Fowler to be quite a bit better than Colvin. That is not the case.
For years I continue to tell myself that Fowler is young and that he didn’t learn to switch hit until the Rockies signed him. I continued to tell myself that the Rockies need to give him some time and let him mature and grow. I might have to stop talking to myself.
I still firmly believe Fowler needs to play every day until the All-Star break, at least. If he is absolutely putrid for a month straight then maybe he gets the hook, but his track record of posting a good on-base percentage suggest that he is an asset atop the Rockies lineup and I doubt that will change.
After writing this piece, however, if he doesn’t step up some more at the plate the Rockies need to start looking for a replacement (and that replacement is not currently on the roster).
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10 comments
CodenameDuchess
April 23, 2012 at 8:08 PM (UTC -6)
Great post. People really struggle with the concept of small sample sizes. Using this logic Colvin should be starting over Cargo too. Give the team a chance to catch their breath before serious changes are made. If June comes around and Dex is still struggling then tough decisions have to be made. However, if June comes and Dex is playing the way he did last August I think everyone will be pretty happy.
I think the biggest problem last year wasn’t that changes were made it was the way they were made. Make an error, have a seat. Go 0-4, have a seat. Go 0-12, enjoy the Springs. I think the absolute worse thing that could happen would be for Tracy to fall for this tiny sample size and start Colvin. Then in a few weeks when Colvin comes back down to earth to pull him in favor of Dexter and lather, rinse, repeat.
Michael
April 23, 2012 at 9:29 PM (UTC -6)
I have championed Dex before and I will do it again. Something that is always thrown at Dex by the fans is that he strikes out to much, which he does at about 26% of his plate appearances (22% for his career) Yet no one seems to mention how much Colvin is whiffing this year 31% (26% for his career). I also think it is important to remember that the past two years Dex has hit much better in the second half of the season, which may be because he is a slow starter like Tulo, or it might have something to do with the more consistent AB’s he has gotten in the second half. I think Colvin is a nice 4th outfielder but does he really have much more potential than Blackmon? Fowler may not reach his potential but it is clear his ceiling is higher and all we Rockies fan could benefit from a little patience from Tracy.
TroyF
April 24, 2012 at 8:08 AM (UTC -6)
Agree with a lot of the analysis, but I think there is one state people really miss badly on when they look at Dex.
Look at these three year splits from Dexter and tell me if you know what they mean:
246/337/401 891 at bats
216/316/352 472 at bats
299/397/448 462 at bats
298/424/492 258 at bats
381/500/619 21 at bats
278/411/466 133 at bats
Obviously, the top two lines are pretty freakin ugly. The bottom four are pretty freakin sweet.
Top two lines, Dex with nobody on base, Dex leading off an inning.
Bottom four – Runners on base, runners in scoring position, bases loaded, RISP 2 out
If Dex has any major problem, I think it’s the fact the Rockies don’t understand where he should be hitting. These aren’t monsterous sample sizes, but they aren’t small either. It’s clear Dex is not a very good hitter leading off an inning and he’s a pretty dangerous hitter if men are on base. If people actually think about it, this fits with his overall MO, doesn’t it?
How likely is a pitcher going to throw that back foot breaking ball with men on base? His strikeout totals drop 7% with men on base. He gets more fastballs. He gets far less pitches 5 feet out of the zone. More balls get put into play, average increases.
I’m not saying Dex is the reincarnation of Babe Ruth here. But it’s been clear to me for a LONG time that he hits better if others are on ahead of him. I sometimes wonder what Dex’s career to this point would look like if he had average speed and played a corner OF spot. My guess he’d actually have been better off.
Just my opinion, I could be wrong. . .
Travis Lay
April 24, 2012 at 8:22 AM (UTC -6)
Very interesting! Hitting Dex 6th instead of 2nd or 1st? That would put Frazier on his ass for sure.
TroyF
April 24, 2012 at 9:26 AM (UTC -6)
It would tick off a lot of people, but I think at some point you have to look at the statistics and understand where a guys strengths are. As I said in the post, the sample sizes are not huge at this point. An 0-4 with men on base drops him to 289 on the average for example.
But look at it this way. . . Dex would have to go 81 for 429 with runners on base to equal his total without runners on. I really hope Scutaro starts to get on more so Dex can hit with him on. I would love to see how it would pay out. Is my half wit idea right or would Dex still struggle?
Either way, our lead off hitter would have an bop of higher than .300 so I would be happy.
Brendan Giles
April 24, 2012 at 8:14 AM (UTC -6)
I think the key is the defense. I was also surprised at how poorly Dex was rated in the field. He covers tons of ground in the outfield and that is essential to playing CF at Coors. Colvin cannot do the things Dex does in the outfield and he will be a major weakness given the fly ball happy pitching staff. Although Dex gets on base very well, the Ks are always the problem as stated (especially in clutch situations). One of the other, subtle changes is the move to hitting second. it is a different approach than hitting lead off, and he is going to need to start driving in some more runs when the opportunities present themselves. I like Colvin a lot and I agree that he needs to find some more playing time, but maybe that needs to come at first base where he can steal some starts from Giambi as the season wears on.
CUBUFFSPAC12
April 24, 2012 at 3:07 PM (UTC -6)
Uh really, Dex is done and time to get rid of him for anything. Wasted talent.
CUBUFFSPAC12
April 24, 2012 at 3:12 PM (UTC -6)
For those of you that want to keep Dex, I say that there was zero patience for Stewart. He was a good 3B with some pop early in his career, but he flailed around his last two years and everyone wanted him gone. Dex has had some moments, but for the most part he’s inconsistent, now makes errors, can’t steal a base and strikes out way too much. At least with Stewart (minus last year) there was the potential for a bomb into the seats.
TroyF
April 24, 2012 at 6:15 PM (UTC -6)
It’s kind of funny. Dexter went nuts in the second half last year. I mean, he went bonkers.
288/381/498 line in 271 at bats.
15 games in and all that goes away? Despite the fact he’s a full year younger than Ian Stewart? I hate arguements like this because it starts sounding like I LOVE Dexter and think he’s one of the top players in the game. In reality, he’s a young player who is either going to succeed now or become a 4th OF for the next 8 years or until his speed goes, whichever happens first.
But Ian Stewart? Ian Stewart has 30 hits and 1 HR in his last 178 at bats. But it’s because he hasn’t been given a fair shot, right? Well, the Cubs have played him every game this year. He’s rewarded them with a lovely line of 196/262/304 Those numbers make Dexter look like Mickey Mantle.
It would be pure idiocy for the Rockies to do anything other than play Dexter everyday now. His trade value is minimal, they have nobody better than him to play CF right now (no, Colvin is not that guy), he’s coming off a terrific second half, and he had a great offseason of work with Tulo. You just ride this out for a few more weeks. If he fails, he’ll be worth the same as he is now. If he succeeds, he’s a solid big leaguer. There is no need to do anything else. Let it play out. It will all come out in the wash. Just know this: If he sucks and flames out, he’ll be joining Ian Stewart on the unemployment line, he won’t be watching Ian play on TV.
Dennis
April 25, 2012 at 10:20 AM (UTC -6)
I see no problem with Dexter’s performance so far this year. Some folks, including some local baseball writers, seem to get wrapped around the axle about his lack of base stealing skills and bunting skills. I’d rather have a sure first-to-third-on-a-single baserunner and bunting is way overused and overrated. I think Colvin should be used to spell Tod Helton, not Jason Giambi. And it’s starting to look like the Rockies have the same problems with 2nd and 3rd base offensive output. It’s early, so I’ll give Scutero and Nelson the benefit of the doubt, but I’m not encouraged. Ey Junior’s performance so far is just a flash in the pan ( although I root for the kid, I see his value as a pinch runner on the expanded 40-man roster, and not someone who should take a spot on the 25-man roster.)