On Saturday, against the red hot Dodgers, Washington Nationals phenom, Bryce Harper, made his big league debut at the tender age of 19. Even though the great Matt Kemp stole the show, Harper’s raw ability was evident and impressive. The kid obviously has the potential to be one heck of a ballplayer.
The interesting thing about Harper’s early call up is that it went completely against the Nationals plans. He has been in the minors for a very short amount of time and has struggled a little in both AA and AAA. They’ve said all along that they would take their time with Harper. And of course, there is the dreaded Super 2 status that Harper will definitely qualify for if he stays in the bigs all year. You have to hand it to the Nationals though. They have a chance to compete this year, but have a major production problem in the outfield and are dealing with a slew of unfortunate injuries. They put future financial considerations on the back burner in order to make their team better now. Naturally, the obvious question, for the purposes of this blog, is whether the Rockies should take a similar approach with Nolan Arenado.
Any discussion about the Rox calling up Arenado needs to include a quick summary of baseball’s Super 2 rule. So, if you already know how this works, feel free to skip ahead. If you don’t quite have a handle on it, here is a breakdown. Basically, MLB teams maintain rights on players for six full years once they begin playing in the majors. Once a player reaches three complete years of big league service time, they become subject to arbitration, and unless a contract extension is agreed upon, they will continue to be arbitration eligible every year until they reach free agency. This process leads to large yearly pay increases even for average players.
The “Super 2” rule is dreaded by GMs because it adds another year to the process, taking qualifying players from three years of arbitration to four. It kicks in for players who have two plus years of service in the bigs and were in the top 22% of callups during their debut season. In the past, when the cut off was the top 17% of callups, teams could usually get around the Super 2 rule by waiting to promote deserving prospects in late May or early June. However, this year, they will have to wait longer because the new CBA changed the cut off from 17% to 22%. Right now, the projected cut off line is late June or early July.
For an example of how detrimental this can be to teams, we need to look no further than the arbitration history between Tim Lincecum and the Giants. In 2007, despite being nowhere in sight of the pennant race, the Giants called Lincecum up in early May, putting him into Super 2 status. In 2008, the year he won his first Cy Young, the Giants paid Lincecum $405,000. The next year, when he won his second Cy Young award, they paid him $650,000. After that season, his Super 2 status kicked in, and since arbitration is based on performance, Lincecum was awarded $9 million. If, in 2007, the Giants had waited a month longer to call him up, they probably would’ve paid him less than $1 million in 2010. The extra month they got out of Lincecum in 2007 came with an $8 million penalty and the price tag has skyrocketed every since. Needless to say, a similar scenario with Arenado would not be in the Rockies best interest. Granted, he probably won’t already have two MVPs under his belt when he is first up for arbitration, but it’s still a matter of saving millions.
One of the more frustrating aspects of the season up to this point is that third base is once again the biggest hole in the Rockies’ lineup. Chris Nelson’s career sample size isn’t quite large enough to draw any permanent conclusions from, but he has racked up enough plate appearances for us to at least pay attention and there has been very little to indicate that he will ever be anything more than a replacement level ballplayer. Jordan Pacheco’s bat is promising, but it’s doubtful he will ever be a solid defender. He was a second baseman at New Mexico and was moved to catcher by the Rockies because they didn’t think he was quick enough to play second. His biggest issue at third, and catcher really, is a lack of arm strength. No matter how much work he puts in at third for the Sky Sox, his lack of range and arm strength isn’t going to change. Pacheco is just a guy without a position. His bat has been ready for two seasons now, but the Rox don’t have a place to play him. So, it’s a waiting game with Jordan. Right now, they need him at third, but are having to wait to see if his defense can develop to a point where he is at least serviceable. Something has to give though. In the NL, in terms of WAR, only the Cubs have received less production from third than the Rockies. (Obviously, the change of scenery hasn’t done much for Ian.)
The answer to this riddle is obviously really easy – Nolan Arenado. Recently, Kevin Goldstein rated him the second best prospect for fantasy baseball in 2012. (Sorry, this is behind the ESPN Insider wall.) Goldstein believes that Nolan’s ability to make contact will lead to a high average at Coors Field, and most importantly, the Rockies need him so badly at third that he will be given the job at some point this year. It really is just a matter of time. Unfortunately, it can’t be now because the Rox can’t afford to pay the penalty in a few years.
This is the major problem with MLB’s Super 2 rule. Teams are actually discouraged from promoting young talent to the bigs. Obviously, the players like this rule because it leads to early pay days for elite performers, but it’s an awful rule for fans. At this point, there really is no reason why we shouldn’t be watching Arenado at third in May, but we will have to wait until July most likely. If anything, teams should have incentives to display their young talent, but since the players and owners just had a chance to change the rule and actually made it more restrictive, it’s doubtful that this will change any time soon. So, we’ll just have to live with it. And honestly, who can blame the Rockies for waiting around? They’re just operating within the confines of the system.
The only other option for the Rockies on Arenado is to approach it like the Rays did with Evan Longoria. Over the last couple of seasons, Longoria has been baseball’s most valuable player. I don’t mean that in the traditional MVP award sense. I mean it literally. His production on field combined with his extremely team friendly contract makes him more valuable than any other player in baseball.
In 2008, after Longoria had logged just six big league ballgames, the Rays took a leap of faith and signed him to a six year extension with only $17.5 million guaranteed. Lincecum blew past $17.5 million in his second year of arbitration. Basically, the Rays took the mystery out of Longoria’s arbitration years by agreeing to a pre-determined contract for their six years of control over the player. But, that’s not all. After the first six years are up, the Rays hold a team option in 2014 for $7.5 million, in 2015 for $11 million, and in 2016 for $11.5 million. That’s three team options tacked on to the end of the deal, and compared to today’s contract prices, all three options are a bargain. You probably won’t find a more team friendly contract in all of professional sports.
The Rays took a risk by committing to Longoria that early, but it has paid off enormously. A couple of things have to happen for this kind of deal to work out for the Rockies and Arenado. First of all, the Rays were sure about Longoria. Because of the difference in age and playing experience at this stage of their careers, Arenado is more of a risk than Longoria was for the Rays. It may require Arenado to prove himself at the big league level in the second half and then the Rockies can feel more confident about this approach in the winter. And secondly, Arenado would have to be open to this type of thing. Without a doubt, Longoria has cost himself quite a bit of money over the long term. Plus, it’s hard to imagine that the players’ union looks too kindly on this kind of deal. There will be pressure on Arenado to get to free agency. Longoria hedged his bet. When he signed that deal, he no longer had to worry about the financial implications if he flamed out in the bigs. Arenado would have to be in that kind of mindset for it to work.
Today, the Rockies sit 5.5 games back of the Dodgers, and based on the performance of the starting rotation, they may be .500 ball club all year. If they call up Arenado, will it really increase their chances of winning the division this year? Last I checked, he can’t pitch, so I’m skeptical. I’d love to see him at third tonight, but waiting to call him up until July is the more prudent move. Unless something changes – a big win streak for example – expect the Rockies to wait it out at third until the second half of the season.
Regardless of when it happens, Arenado’s debut probably won’t garner the attention of Bryce Harper’s first game. However, for Rockies fans, it will be an equally momentous occasion and will definitely be one of the high points of the 2012 season. Like Harper, the kid can flat out rake.
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12 comments
JD
April 30, 2012 at 2:59 PM (UTC -6)
The Nationals were stupid with Harper, and the Rockies would be just as stupid to call up Arenado. This is NOT a contending year for the Rox. It’s a year to evaluate guys for next year, when hopefully a new GM will decide who stays. Don’t stunt Arenado or waste money with a vain callup.
For the Nats, it’s actually even dumber, since they’ve already predetermined that Strasburg will be shut down in September. They’re PLANNING to quit on the season, so why screw up Harper for it?
Neither of these teams expected to contend this year, and neither should blow up its long-term to improve this year.
Travis Lay
May 1, 2012 at 7:56 AM (UTC -6)
I think the Nationals see the East as ripe for the taking. Phillies offense is non-existent and the Mets aren’t going to contend and suddenly the Braves look iffy especially with Jurrjens struggling. And apparently the Marline suck.
If the Nats are contending in September I cant imagine they shut down Strasburg. What they will do is give him an extra day off before and after the All-Star break, something like that to help cut down his innings.
And let’s not forget the merchandise sales and ticket sales that are generated by the hype of Strasburg. Maybe the money they will make off of extra tix/merch/concessions is enough to ignore the potential long term benefits of keeping him in the minors for another month or two.
Michael
April 30, 2012 at 9:32 PM (UTC -6)
I really don’t like playing the Super 2 game and our division is so mediocre a great player at third could totally swing the race. That being said Arendo hasn’t even hit in AAA yet, he was a so-so prospect until late last year and then he lit up the AFL. He is still hitting great and I really want him to become the great all-around 3rd baseman we have never had in Colorado. I just want him to come into a situation that will help him succeed and so a few at-bats making sure he can handle better breaking balls, and perhaps a change in how Tracy handles younger players are things I would like to see the organization give to Nolan. I would absolutely scream if he jumps straight to the bigs goes 1 for 12 or something and suddenly he is platooning with Nelson or Pacheco.
CodenameDuchess
May 1, 2012 at 12:47 PM (UTC -6)
“He is still hitting great and I really want him to become the great all-around 3rd baseman we have never had in Colorado”
If he ever approaches the production the Rox got from Vinny Castilla from ’95-99 I think people would be pretty ecstatic. Not every prospect that plays for the Rockies needs to be the best player at their position. We are quite spoiled that Tulo is nearly a consensus #1 SS and Cargo is certainly in the conversation for all around OFs. If Arenado becomes a Top 10 borderline Top 5 3B we should all celebrate.
Eric Garcia
May 1, 2012 at 12:58 AM (UTC -6)
Right — he can’t pitch, isn’t going to provide a boost where the Rockies need it most, and should stay in the minors for a bit longer. That is the big difference between Harper/Nats and Arenado/Rockies. Harper provides help where the Nationals need it most, and while Arenado would fill a hole, the offensive boost wouldn’t add many wins. We all know the real trouble spot for the Rockies.
Travis Lay
May 1, 2012 at 7:57 AM (UTC -6)
I wouldn’t rush Arenado. A lot of his hype towards the end of last year was based on his RBI totals which we know is a team stat, not individual. And like others have said an extra bat is not what the Rockies need, they need DLR to come back healthy and pitch well.
TroyF
May 1, 2012 at 7:59 AM (UTC -6)
The Rockies typically never have their top hitting prospects spend a lot of time, if any, I triple a. Tull, Fowler, Rosario, etc. never spent a second in AAA before making their big league debuts. They use CO Springs for older, filler players, guys who need to work on a position (Pacheco), guys who need to regroup (Dexter the last two years), or injury rehabs.
As for it being a rebuilding or developmental year, I just do not see it. WE all might be fairly down on this team and see the holes it has. The organization clearly does not see it that way. If they did, why would they have a 33+ year olds at 1B, 2B, C, RF, and Closer.
I do not think they should bring him up yet, but I would be surprised if he wasn’t up by July.
For what it is worth, he was more than a so so prospect before the end of last year. Prior to 2011, he was listed as the 80th prospect in baseball. That might sound low, but you need to keep in mind that he was an 19 year old at the time who had spent one full hearing low A ball. He was already pretty respected.
JD
May 1, 2012 at 10:05 AM (UTC -6)
If the team doesn’t see this as a rebuilding year, then that’s all the more reason to fire O’Dowd, because any GM that thinks his team can contend with a rotation like this one is clearly not worthy of his job.
Logan Burdine
May 1, 2012 at 10:31 AM (UTC -6)
Who knows how they see this year. They’re so cryptic about everything. He really should be fired though.
TroyF
May 2, 2012 at 9:06 AM (UTC -6)
Again, I do not see how the team could view this as anything but a year they want to contend for a playoff spot. Scutari, Cuddyer, and Hernandez And Guthrie were all brought in the off season. All of them are 33 years or over. Why do that if the goal s to rebuild? Why have a 49 year old take up a spot in the rotation? Why trade Smith for pitchers who are already in the big leagues?
THEY think they can contend for the playoffs. Regardless, he should be fired. Bit you know he will not be. Keep in mind, if they just continue to slosh around at the .500 mark til August, they will be within shouting distance of the playoffs til the final month.
As of today, we are 1.5 games out of the wild card.
And, heck, this is a funny gam, right? Anyone can get hot for a month. I don’t se it. Then again, after watching Cargo flail away for two months a couple of years ago, I was more than a little surprised he ended up carrying the team for two and a half months.
Logan Burdine
May 1, 2012 at 10:11 AM (UTC -6)
Yeah, he hit 40 doubles as one of the youngest hitters in the SALY when he was with Asheville and was already a top 3 organizational prospect going into last year. The AFL MVP put him more on the national radar.
The big question with him was his glove and foot work which have developed surprisingly well. They almost moved him to catcher after he was drafted but wisely decided against it.
I honestly think his bat is ready. His ability to make contact will keep him from being overwhelmed.
I’m wondering if the humidor will change things for them in the Springs. Over the last few years, it’s become a waste of a level.
Scott
May 2, 2012 at 9:54 AM (UTC -6)
Have to agree with the idea to not waste a control year on a guy who good be very good long term. If the team had any kind of pitching rotation at all, maybe I’d change my tune…but there is absolutely no way anyone in the organization can see this as a contending season. I just can’t believe that no matter how hard I try.
The NL West is pretty pathetic all the way through, though, and things could happen that aren’t logical. If it still looks like there’s any chance in August, maybe call Arenado up then…but not before, and not unless there’s a VERY good shot at the division title.