Time for the Scutaro experiment to end.
Reading Blake Street Bulletin is getting depressing. Writing about the Rockies is getting depressing. But I try to think of something positive to write every day and struggle to come up with anything that I could even put a tiny bit of meat on – I’m talking a chicken wing from KFC after I got a hold of it: no meat.
I could talk Carlos Gonzalez and his offensive play so far this year, that has been great, but then I start to wander towards his very subpar play in the outfield. And, frankly, outside of CarGo at the plate what do the Rockies have? Wilin Rosario’s six home runs are nice. Christian Friedrich gave Rockies fans a glimmer of hope when he faced two awful offenses in extreme pitcher’s parks…then he faced a horrendous offense at Coors Field and all hopes and dreams were washed away. What about Troy Tulowitzki? He has to be a bright spot, right? According to Baseball-Reference Tulo’s WAR is -0.3 right now. That’s right, Tulo is costing the Rockies victories so far this year. That shouldn’t be hard to believe, either, if you have seen him come up empty time and again late in the game at the plate and watched his lackluster performance in the field, too.
There just isn’t anything good to write about on the topic “Rockies” right now.
We all love top 10’s so here at 10 gloom and doom stats for the Rockies.
10. The Rockies currently have the sixth worst run differential in baseball. Run differential is often a predictor either during the current season or for the following season on how a team will perform going forward. Something as simple as if you score more runs than your opponent can predict wins. Amazing, huh? After last night the Rockies have been outscored by 30 runs. Only the Minnesota Twins (-70!), Chicago Cubs (-41), San Diego Padres (-36), New York Mets (-32) and Pittsburgh Pirates (-31) have fared worse than the Rockies -30. It’s not going to get better for the Rox.
(How about the Mets? Two games above .500 while being outscored by 32 runs this season. Safe to say a losing streak is on the horizon for the Amazin’s.)
9. The Rockies are the only team in baseball that has not had a starting pitcher win back-to-back games in 2012.
8. The Rockies pitching has the second worst ERA in all of baseball and has allowed the most runs (tied with the Twins as the worst staff in preventing runs). The team also has the third fewest quality starts in baseball and the worst batting average against.
7. Collectively the Rockies starting rotation has the second worst ERA and batting average against (those pitiful Twins lead both) and fifth fewest strikeouts. And if it feels like there is always a lot of traffic on the bases when the Rockies starters are on the bump it is because there are: the Rockies starting rotation has the worst WHIP (walks + hits / IP) in baseball.
(Stumbled across one stat that amazed me on the positive side: the Rockies as a team are 27th in baseball in number of batter strikeouts. There are 26 teams that have K’d more than the Rockies have. I’m shocked.)
6. Marco Scutaro and his slow heartbeat are valued at -6.7 batting WAR so far this year. That is good for 12th worst in baseball among qualified batters. Scutaro’s .304 on-base percentage comfortably puts him in the bottom third in baseball and Jim Tracy continues to bat him leadoff.
5. Thanks in large part to Scutaro the Rockies have an on-base percentage of .282 from the leadoff man which is 25th in baseball. (Dexter Fowler has a .349 OBP.)
4. The Rockies have 25 team errors (25th in baseball) and that doesn’t count the mis-plays that aren’t counted as errors (I’m thinking of the play in which Scutaro didn’t apply the tag on the base runner stealing second). Currently Tulo has a below average UZR/150 rating, tied for fourth in errors and has the fifth worst fielding percentage among shortstops.
3. The Rockies are tied for fifth in baseball in outs made on the bases and tied with second fewest bases taken on fly balls, passed ball or other opportunities. In other words they don’t take the opportunity, when presented, to move up a base and all too often they are caught trying to move up a base when they shouldn’t (think Scutaro getting thrown out at third this past weekend).
2. The Rockies are averaging over 32,000 fans per home game which is good for 13th in baseball. The 32k represents Coors Field being about 64% occupied for every game which is good for 16th in baseball. Rockies fans are still showing up to the games and filling the Monfort’s pockets. Nothing will change until this changes. If the fans continue to support a lousy team then there is no incentive to make changes.
1. I know Eric Young Jr. isn’t great defensively but what has Scutaro given the Rockies this year? Instead of blindly running Scutaro to second base every night and putting him in the leadoff position every game why not try EY2 at second? Instead of trying to squeeze EY2 into the outfield when the team already has CarGo, Dex, Michael Cuddyer and Tyler Colvin as more than adequate options for the OF, why not put EY2 at second? What’s it going to hurt? Not like Scutaro is giving the Rockies anything positive other than his slow heartbeat. That is my number one gloom and doom stat: Tracy always favors the veteran and gives the veteran the chance to work out of a slump even after it becomes painfully obvious that the veteran needs to be benched in favor of a kid.
It is going to be a long year for the Rockies because Jorge De La Rosa has been put back on the shelf and isn’t even throwing anymore due to a bad elbow and tight forearm. At this point would even a healthy flame throwing DLR help this team? He would help, but they wouldn’t suddenly become a contender. There aren’t any super prospects waiting in the minors that will drastically improve this team. Sure Nolan Arenado might give the team a shot in the arm but the team is doing pretty well offensively, it is pitching where the most help is needed.
To that end there isn’t even hope for next year without moves being made next offseason. The Rockies are stuck in another rebuilding mode only a few years removed from making the World Series (which, looking back, was obviously even more luck based than skill based).
Doom and gloom.
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10 comments
1 ping
Logan Burdine
May 22, 2012 at 12:00 PM (UTC -6)
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m so on board with starting EY Jr. at second. He’s earned it though.
Travis Lay
May 22, 2012 at 12:04 PM (UTC -6)
That’s how I felt when I wrote it. I would have never thought I would advocate for starting EY at 2nd, but it’s better than slow heartbeat.
…I think…but what’s to lose at this point? Maybe the Rockies can pump up some of their guys like EY and Fowler and turn them into trade bait at the deadline and get something of value in return?
Logan Burdine
May 22, 2012 at 12:26 PM (UTC -6)
I hope they don’t trade Dex. I’m hoping the next group in charge will appreciate him.
This is depressing. Maybe we should just write about Peyton Manning.
Travis Lay
May 22, 2012 at 12:27 PM (UTC -6)
Where is the “delete” button! Don’t bring the Broncos in here!
CodenameDuchess
May 22, 2012 at 2:04 PM (UTC -6)
I’m completely on board the EY train. In fact I think the team should fully embrace the youth movement.
1. Start EY at 2nd
2. keep Dex in CF
3. make Rosario the full time starter (i.e. 1 maybe 2 games off per week).
4. Have Colvin get one start in CF, one in RF, two at 1B and maybe 1 in LF every week.
5. Its time for Helton to start the slow transition to the Rockies hitting coach. The man has a lower BA and OPS than Dexter and happens to be the 1st baseman and hitting in the 5 hole. That’s just not getting it done. Thanks for the memories big guy but the production just isn’t there.
6. Get Pomeranz back up, why the hell not at this point
7. Bring on Arenado,
At the very least it would be fun to watch this guys develop.
Kevin Kroh
May 22, 2012 at 3:43 PM (UTC -6)
You said it, Codename. Bring on the youngins. Helton as hitting coach, Moyer can be player/mgr. And speaking of Moyer….Every start, he mows down the opposing lineup twice through, then he gets shelled the third time around. So, why not do a combo start with somebody who can come in to pitch the third and fourth times through the lineup… change of pace, don’t need to use the ‘pen… Shit, we do it all the time in Danish division 2 fastpitch softball. It’s bound to work for the Rox.
Seth
May 22, 2012 at 4:57 PM (UTC -6)
100% agree with all of this, Scutaro might be the worst everyday player in the majors and yet Tracy still throws him out at 2nd and hitting leadoff EVERY DAY. Play EY Jr. hit him leadoff with Dex 2nd and maybe once they get going at the top and cause some problems then everyone else will get going too (like everyone except Cargo). Also play Rosario every day. Trade Hernandez, Guthrie, and try to trade Scutaro (but who the hell wants him). Maybe even call up DJ Lemahieu and play him at 2nd, he has had a good season a AAA so far.
TroyF
May 22, 2012 at 8:14 PM (UTC -6)
But, but, but, Dexter is the PROBLEM with this team guys. Even look at commentson this very board. Get rid of him, NOW. Sure, he has the second highest OPS of any Rockies player, but that fancy fancy OPS stat is garbage. Look at he horrible batting average. Gotta make sure he does not screw this team ver. Hit him 8th and make sure he sits a fe days a week n shame.
I disagree that this is some long term sinkhole. Cargo and Tulo can play. We know that. Two stars in the lineup is a good start. Start plying Dex everyday again, see some slight improvement from Rosario and if Arenado is the real deal, the lineup is not half bad.
There are a ton of pitching prospects. We do not need all of them to hit, even a couple of hits out of Nicasio, Freidricj, White, Chatwood, Chacin and he staff is not a total train wreck.
Add to that Guthrie (8 million) Scutaro (6 million) Are going to free up 14 million in payroll. Helton (5 million) and JDR (11 million) come off the books the following year. That is 30 million n two years. Spend the money wisely and this team can be decent fairly quickly.
Now, the only way my plan works is to fire the manager and pitching coach yesterday and then dump DOD right now. Ap will. Of coach he pitchers up (Nicasio is fading before our eyes now) and DOD will not use the money wisely. I can dream, though, right?
Seth
May 22, 2012 at 9:09 PM (UTC -6)
Tulo has been flat out terrible this year. The supposed “star” and “leader” of this team has done nothing right this year, hopefully he can get back on track that way we can have two stars on the same team. I think Helton retires after this debacle and I hope JDR comes back because I think he could be very good again as he has shown in the past. One of my most hated words is prospects, Chacin and Nicasio WERE prospects and now one can barely stay in the majors while the other has trouble getting through 5 innings. I don’t think White can be successful at all in Colorado if he cant fix his control and sinker problems. If Pomeranz can get his fastball back to where it supposedly was with the indians at mid-90′s and have a better curve then we might have something but right now he is a 4th starter, 3rd at best. Chatwood cant even crack the majors but that is to the fault of Tracy and Apodaca for trying to make him a reliever at first. Hopefully Friedrich can be the real deal but who knows with our team. They need to stop spending on players way past their prime and actually have a good draft for once. Build through the draft and younger players to build the farm system up that way we might be back to playoff form within 3 years. That all lands on Odowds shoulders, he NEEDS to go.
TroyF
May 23, 2012 at 7:25 AM (UTC -6)
Tull has been terrible this year, but I am pretty sur he will go back to his career norm. I hope Helton retires, but I have my doubts.
Most of this staff is YOUNG. I wish people would have a simple understanding that young pitchers struggle. Cliff Lee did not become consistent and dominant until he hit 29. Young pitchers need to be left the hell alone unless they are total train wrecks.
Pomeranz went to th. minor and has promptly thrown 12 innings of scoreless ball with his weak fastball. (which is not that weak, but I’m tired of trying to convince you about that) Are we all so short sighted we forget Cargo? The guy could play D, but he looked like a child trying to hit big league pitching.
Some of the pitching prospects will flame out. But couple of them are going to be hits if we have the brains to be patient. (I would bet very good money Pomeranz will be a top 2 starter in this league if he stays healthy) Prospects may be a dirty word, but I would damned happier seeing Pomeranz pitch than I would Moyer get destroyed every 5 days. Pomeranz lost his control in the bigs and still has the best era of the starters.
Honestly, while losing frustrates me, I can live with it if I see a plan in place. I almost wish the playoff years never happened. Those fluke years caused everyone to think things were om when they were not. Please, just clean house already.
Rockies farm system on the rise, Corey Dickerson tearing up the Cali League - Blake Street Bulletin » Blake Street Bulletin
May 24, 2012 at 2:42 PM (UTC -6)
[...] has been a lot of doom and gloom around here lately and it’s warranted. Thus far, the Rox season is best summed up as a total bed crapping [...]