The second month of the season has come to a close and, thanks to a recent hot streak, the Rockies closed out May at 21-29. This week’s highlights included Dex’s incredible 7 for 9 performance on Monday and CarGo’s 3 bombs on Wednesday. Also, Jamie Moyer’s time with the Rockies came to a close, which opens up the door for a new face in the rotation. This week, we discuss who we expect to take over Moyer’s spot, where the playing time goes while Tulo is on the DL, and what to do with Helton.
With Jamie Moyer gone (and Josh Outman scheduled to take his spot today), who is the best candidate(s) to join the starting rotation going forward?
Brendan: Jorge De La Rosa is the easy answer, but the Rockies will probably take it slow with DLR and he won’t be an option for another month or two. If not DLR, does it even matter? Outman? Pomeranz? Chatwood? Moscoso? Torres? Take your pick, they all have their own problems and I expect to see them all get a shot sooner or later. I want it to be Pomeranz, but he is still struggling to get deep into games and is not ready to be recalled. Even though Outman is being given the first chance, but I think that Torres will settle into that starting role. In 7 starts for the Sky Sox, Torres is 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA and a tidy 1.18 WHIP. The key for the entire staff, not just the replacement, is to consistently produce quality starts (6+ innings pitched and no more than 3 runs), something the Rockies have only done 15 times all year (which is dead last: MLB average is 27).
Kevin: The level of incompetence in the Rockies’ pitching staff is staggering. Now that the Moyer Joke has run its course, it’s time to find another jester. Outman looks like “the best candidate” to replace the Crafty Lefty, which should make Rockies fans cringe. Pomeranz needs to stay in AAA while he works on his mechanics and comes to grips with the fact that his peak will be no higher than a number 3 starter. Chacin needs to continue resting his ailing shoulder and hopefully avoid going the way of Manny Corpas by not repeating Manny’s mistake of polishing off a pint of Ben & Jerry’s every afternoon. Maybe the Rockies should kick the tires on Brent Mayne to see if he has anything left in the tank.
Ned: The choice of 26 year old leftie Josh Outman to take Jamie Moyer’s spot in the rotation is telling—it tells us that Outman is the best the Rockies have available today; it tells us that Pomeranz and Chacin are not ready; it tells us the Rockies don’t like either Rogers or Torres as a starter; and it tells us that Chatwood is still getting blasted by AAA hitters. The Rockies already tried Moscoso twice this year as an emergency starter with disastrous results. Outman had 9 starts and 4 relief appearances for Oakland last year where his results were mediocre—58.1 innings pitched, 3.70 era, 35 strike outs,23 walks, and a WHIP of 1.46. An oblique strain put Outman on the 15 day DL in April after he made the Colorado roster out of spring training. Tracy said late Wednesday that the Rox will need to piggy-back Outman (he has a 50 pitch limit), and he will not last more than 3-4 innings with Torres getting the long-relief duty. While he is clearly not the savior of the rotation, the best news for Rockies’ fans is that Outman got the call–not Moscoso.
Who deserves to receive more playing time at second base while Marco Scutaro fills in at shortstop for the injured Troy Tulowitzki?
Brendan: DJ LeMahieu. Or EY2. Or even Herrera (when he is off the DL). Just not Chris Nelson. Of course, Nelson was activated off the DL yesterday to replace Tulo and now the playing time is sure to get yanked around with Nelson being given every chance to fail. Again. The Rockies are convinced that EY2 cannot play in the infield, and at this point he is not worth the added liability for the embarrassing defense. LeMahieu is just 24 and is a big body (6’4”, 205lbs) who makes solid contact, but seems to be a gap to gap hitter without the pop I expect from someone his size. Regardless, he is an intriguing prospect and getting a look at him for a couple of weeks sounds like a much better option than watching Nelson flail away at the plate with the occasional single.
Kevin: Anybody but Herrera, who everyone (except the omniscient Jim Tracy) knows is no better than a AAAA player. Fortunately, Herrera is on the DL so Tracy’s hand is forced away from him. This club desperately needs a long-term solution at second base, and this is an opportunity to give time to either LeMahieu, Chris Nelson, or EY. LeMahieu and Nelson have already logged some pretty mediocre MLB time, but both have shown promise in the minors. Ideally someone would force himself into the lineup, but until then, I’d prefer to see EY get the majority of the time. EY might be a butcher at 2B, and if he is, then move on to the next candidate. Whatever happens, stop playing Herrera.
Ned: We are all assuming that Scutaro will move to short in Tulo’s absence, leaving a vacancy at second base. The Rockies have put Chris Nelson and Jonathan Herrera at second several times this year to spell Scutaro, but Herrera is on the DL. Nelson was activated yesterday from the DL. Chris has done a fine job defensively at second, and has done a little hitting for the club. I would like to see DJ LeMahieu receive quality time at second since we already know what Nelson can do. LeMahieu came with Colvin in the Stewart/Weathers heist (a great example of how to get something for nothing). DJ was having an exceptional year in Colorado Springs prior to his call-up. Based on his limited time with the Rockies, LeMahieu looks to be a solid defensive player at second. I expect LeMahieu to share time with Nelson, with Tracy going with whoever has the hotter bat.
What is the best role for Todd Helton for the remainder of the year?
Brendan: Helton has started almost 40 games for the Rockies this year and is on pace to start about 125 games total. That is too many for a plodding corner infielder hitting .231 with 5 homeruns and a history of back problems. His role in the coming years is similar to Jason Giambi’s: veteran bench player to mentor the young guys and provide some pop off the bench in late game situations/spot starts. The transition to a supporting role needs to begin now. He should start about half the remaining games with Colvin and Cuddyer taking most of the available starts and an occasional appearance by Giambi. Todd is the best Rockie ever and he has had a career worthy of hall of fame consideration, but he is no longer able to positively impact the club as an everyday player.
Kevin: Todd needs to start taking the Toddfather nickname more seriously. He needs to take more days off to give time for Pacheco and/or Colvin to fill in at first. He needs to embrace his role as the patriarch of first base and help groom his heir, whether he accomplishes that by simply giving young guys playing time or actually instructing them on the finer nuances of first base. More time off for Todd would be good for everyone: Todd can get the rest he needs to ride (rather than stumble) off into the sunset, and young guys can get the experience they need to help fill the void once Todd is gone for good.
Ned: I really, really hope I am wrong in my belief that Todd Helton is reaching the end of his career as a baseball player. Todd seems to have lost his eye, and perhaps his bat speed as well. We have never seen Todd Helton take so many called third strikes right down the middle. This truly great player is today not the Todd Helton of even last year. When Mike Schmidt decided he couldn’t perform up to his standards, he abruptly hung-up his cleats. I fear that Helton may soon do the same. But, let’s hope that Todd is only in a slump from which he will soon emerge. Very recently, he has shown signs of life. His role for the remainder of the year will depend on whether he recovers at the plate. If he does not improve, look for Todd to receive an inordinate number of “rest” days and be spelled by the combination of Colvin, Cuddyer and Giambi.
Have a different take? Let us know in the comments below.
Got an idea for a future 3U3D discussion? Email us at BlakeStBulletin@gmail.com
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16 comments
TroyF
June 1, 2012 at 7:43 PM (UTC -6)
I won’t pound the fact that a bad first month doesn’t mean Pomeranz is going to be a failure or not a top of the rotation pitcher, I’m beyond that at this point.
One thing I haven’t mentioned in all my rants about young pitching is that Coors is quite possibly the hardest place to learn to pitch in major league baseball. Lets face it, good pitches get whacked here. The ball doesn’t sink as well as it normally does, which causes pitches to stay up.
Bad habits they start doing here they take to the road.
Again, good young pitchers get throttled here. Just one example:
Kershaw – Career ERA of 5.91 at Coors with 11 HR allowed in 56 innings. He’s pitched 435 innings at Dodger Stadium and has allowed 25 HR there. At the current rate, he would give up his 25th bomb here in about 125 innings.
If you make snap judgments on pitchers in ANY park, it’s folly. Doing it at this park is insanity.
Brendan Giles
June 4, 2012 at 7:38 AM (UTC -6)
i agree with you about Pomeranz. When his stuff is on, he is a very fun pitcher to watch. He has to improve his command because it is the walks that end up killing him and he isn’t ready for the bigs yet.
I actually like the young talent that has been assembled and I agree with your earlier post that not ALL of them have to make it. One has to be good (top half of the rotation) and two need to be middle/back end guys. The numbers are working in the Rockies’ favor on this and while there are going to be some failures, there should also be some successes. Outman and White both looked great this weekend (White’s sinker was nasty yesterday) so there is some hope that a few of the arms might actually have some staying power.
I’m not worried about the kids’ numbers (ERA and such). i am more concerened with their ability to get deep into games and pound the zone. throwing strikes means making mistakes and giving up hits, but nibbling the corners and walking guys compounds the problems.
Kevin Kroh
June 2, 2012 at 4:21 AM (UTC -6)
I might be the only one who laments the loss of Moyer. Apodaca and Tracy should’ve noticed by now that he’s a servicable pitcher the first two times through the lineup:
Innings 1-3:
IP: 30
ER: 13
H: 35
ERA: 3.90
K/BB: 23/10
SB/CS: 4/2
BA: .289
BABIP: .332
Runs off Errors: 5
GDP: 6
These numbers are good enough to be a long reliever (or a short starter?) in this laughable rotation. Sure, bring the kids up and see what they can do. But it would’ve been brilliant to fire Apodaca, and keep Moyer as both player and coach (like the Papa Chance character in that great baseball novel, “The Brothers K”).
Perhaps Red Smith was right. The art of fiction is dead. Reality has strangled invention. But not in the positive sense, as was the case with The Shot Heard Round the World. In this case, our organization was unable or unwilling to play with the concept of “starter” and “reliever” in a way that could’ve yielded surprisingly effective results (i.e. start Moyer for 3 innings, bring in one of the young kids as a long reliever for another 4 innings — and a distinct change of pace — and close out with Brothers + Betancourt).
Although the sabermetric movement has made a big impact on the game, static ideas and methods unfortunately still thrive in the country of baseball.
Brendan Giles
June 4, 2012 at 8:16 AM (UTC -6)
Finally. A lead in for my own crazy (never gonna happen) idea. Pitching in Coors Field is a unique challenge and after years of traditional method failures it is time to think outside of the box. For a few years, i have had an insane idea that a 6 man rotation is the way to go. Not six “normal” starters, but 3 pairs. Each “starter” would go 3-5 innings and then yield to the second “starter” to get deep in the game. the load on each arm would decrease and they would go every 3rd day (and could alternate who is starter 1 and starter 2). you would still have a bullpen (although it would be a man short) and would be able to pick up innings even if both guys struggled.
Cute idea, but lots of problems. these guys are trained from day 1 to try to finish what they start (i say it is just ego that gets in the way, but that is not a trivial aspect). what happens when starter 1 is lights out? pull him after 5? that is a hard thing to do. if memory serves correctly, the great tinkerer, tony larussa, tried something similar and started a reliever, trying to get two innings before going to the “starter”. needless to say, it didn’t work out so well. however, the way outman and torres worked together shows the idea holds promise.
creativity is going to be essential to coming up with an effective pitching staff. 20 years of trying to assemble a traditional staff that looks like a normal MLB club has yielded failure after failure with few exceptions. try something new, whether it is finding some pitchers that can hit and contribute offensively off the bench (micah owings!?) or reinventing the strategy for starting pitching, just try it out.
Kevin Kroh
June 6, 2012 at 12:08 PM (UTC -6)
Hell yeah. I’ve also pondered the 6 man rotation (3 pairs of starters) during many a long, dark winter.
You hit the nail on the head: “20 years of trying to assemble a traditional staff that looks like a normal MLB club has yielded failure after failure with few exceptions”
Maybe it’s time to call in the Doctor… Dr. Mike Marshall, that is.
http://deadspin.com/5902416/how-a-career-ends-mike-marshall-phd-the-outcast-screwballer-turned-outcast-pitching-coach?tag=tell-me-when-it.s-over
Brendan Giles
June 20, 2012 at 8:05 AM (UTC -6)
Looks like the Rockies are going to go ahead and think creatively (gulp). The four man, limited pitch count rotation, is just a variation of the 6 man (3 pairs) rotation proposed above. Be careful what you ask for – you might get it!
Michael
June 2, 2012 at 8:55 AM (UTC -6)
I just can’t wrap my head around the culture the Rockies have built. They trade for a boatload of young pitching and then panic when there is a learning curve. They groom EY for 2B for his entire time in the minors he comes up (in 2010) and butchers 2B for a little over a month and he is never allowed to play there again? The Rox invested 5 years in EY as the 2B of the future, did they teach him nothing, and if he was so fringy as a 2B why did they not try him in the OF earlier? EY’s defensive metrics from his 30 something games at second are actually not bad, his range was so far above average that he made up for his lackluster fielding percentage. We know Herrera and Nelson are AAAA players, EY has a major league bat and the superior physical tools, put him at 2B and give him a chance to learn.
Johnny B
June 2, 2012 at 9:23 AM (UTC -6)
I agree with most things said…Outman looked pretty decent all things considered yesterday and if the offense fires like this it will keep the pitchers pretty comfortable. We saw Torres and Outman back to back and frankly I thought that Outman seemed more composed, with better stuff, and more of a will to win, for what it’s worth.
I’m not sure I really agree with the DJL move strictly to second but it might be the best option, like Michael I kinda want to see EY2 get a stab at it. More than anything I feel like this move has just extended the stay of execution for Scutaro who really shouldn’t be an everyday player anymore.
I disagree with the Todd comments…for a month. Let him hold down the fort, if only barely. He seemed to be getting his swing rotation back yesterday and he is by far the best defensive option at first with all the picks he makes, even though he has definitely lost a step or two. I also want Todd for HOF reasons, to get as many at bats and hits, RBIs, etc. to accumulate because we need a Rockie in there and he is by far our best hope. For now let Pacheco hold down third which he is doing with better efficiency and when Arenado gets the call up let Todd rest some more then.
Brendan Giles
June 4, 2012 at 8:28 AM (UTC -6)
Outman did look better than Torres on Friday. Up until then, I had not been too keen on his control, but he was lights out and looked great.
Second is not good, as usual (you know it is bad when i am lamenting the bygone days of clint barmes. yuck). i am no scutaro fan, but he has been playing better of late and once Tulo comes back it is still scutaro’s job no matter who gets the time out there now.
todd is a tough case, and i agree that he has been trending up lately. however, more rest days opens up time for other guys (maybe just colvin, but still…) and should help make todd a more effective player in his limited duty so that he can accumulate those stats to improve his HOF resume.
TroyF
June 2, 2012 at 5:13 PM (UTC -6)
I’m the biggest Todd fan you’ll find, but you don’t play a guy simply because you want him to go to the hall of fame. You play the best players.
Tracy takes a couple of bad weeks of Dexter and decides, hey, he deserves to hit 8th. Todd Helton is slugging .413 in his last 300 at bats, let’s keep hitting him 5th. Why? I mean, seriously, why? Try this exercise: Put Cargo at third in the order and Tulo at fourth.
Then throw all the other starters in a hat and have your child draw them out one at a time. When you get done, I’d bet you good money, that lineup will be a statistically better lineup than the card Jim Tracy takes to home plate every night.
CodenameDuchess
June 2, 2012 at 8:38 PM (UTC -6)
“The Rockies have only done 15 times all year (which is dead last: MLB average is 27).”
Wow, that is quite the depressing stat.
I have no answer on question #1. Just keep plugging in the young guys until one of them steps up. Hopefully Nicasio is ok.
As for 2B I’d like to see EYJ get the first crack. The defensive metrics say he is better than our eyes think. He’s the only true stolen base threat on the team. If he can’t take the position then give LeMahieu a shot. They may as well find out what he brings to the table. I think we know what Nelson and Herrera bring to the table. The Rockies need to evaluate the other guys and find out if they need to make a move for 2013. Maybe 2013 is the year Pacheco moves to 2B full time. Assuming Arenado is ready.
Todd. Thank you. With that out of the way it’s time to start scaling back. Take a hint from Mr. Chipper Jones and get out while we still remember you as the greatest Rockie and not the old guy who hurt the team his last few years in the league.
I know it’s early but since it appears this season is lost how about a super early 2013!!
C – Rosario
1B – Cuddyer
2B – Pacheco
3B – Arenado
SS – Tulo
LF – Cargo
CF – Dex
RF – Colvin
#1 – DLR
#2 – Nicasio
#3 – Friedrich
#4 – White
#5 – Chacin
I’ll skip the bullpen for now but that lineup could be pretty scary. Especially if this April/May version of Colvin is sustainable, Dex and Rosario continue to develop and Arenado is close to what has been promised.
JD
June 2, 2012 at 9:45 PM (UTC -6)
The April/May version of Colvin is not sustainable, nor is Pacheco as a decent middle infielder, which is why we should see Pacheco at 1B and try EY2 at 2B.
Brendan Giles
June 4, 2012 at 8:46 AM (UTC -6)
i am a huge Pacheco fan, but he (much like Cuddy) is going to be a defensive liability no matter where you try to hide him. I love the idea of putting him at second, but I don’t know that his offensive production could outweigh his defensive problems to be out there everyday. It really is too bad the NL doesn’t have a DH (although i will leave the “purist” discussions for another time).
I agree that Cuddyer’s future with the club will see him playing more and more 1B. It is not a difficult position to learn and if you have the hands to hit, you can learn to dig out the throws (he will have the disadvantage of being right handed, but it is not entirely uncommon to see RH guys at first). The important thing is opening up LF (PLEASE move CarGo and his rocket arm to right) for the soon to be backlog of prospects. Between Colvin, EY2 (i know, i know, but whatever it takes to get him in the line up, right?), Blackmon, and even Tim Wheeler, there is going to be a push for playing time and removing Cuddy from the mix is the way to go.
Mike
June 5, 2012 at 7:39 PM (UTC -6)
Speaking as somebody who has used whatever electronic medium available to follow as many of Todd’s at bats as possible for the last 10 years, I agree. Thanks for what you have given us over the years. Shouldn’t management make an actual baseball decision and consider telling Todd “thanks for the memories, but we are actually trying to win. Enjoy your retirement.” As in, starting today…
TroyF
June 3, 2012 at 8:40 AM (UTC -6)
Here is what I think we know:
C – Rosario
SS – Tulo
3B – Arenado
LF – Cargo
CF – Dexter
RF/1b – Cuddyer
Pacheco – Utility role at lease, potentially 1B
SP – Pomeranz (they aren’t going to give up on him this year, he will be in the rotation next year to start anyway)
SP – DLR (10 million a year, he will be there)
Nicasio – Again, a young guy with a good arm, they are going to give him every chance to fail
RP – Brothers
RP – Roenicke
Beyond that, it’s really a guessing game. None of the other starters are a given. We also have some cash coming off the books. Between Scutaro, Guthrie, Moyer, and Giambi, 16.3 million is coming off the books. A little over 4 is going to raises for Cargo and Tulo. Dexter is also going to get a nice raise. (if the Rockies are smart, they lock him up now before he hits arbitration)
That is still going to leave 8 to 10 million for free agents and that doesn’t take in the fact of possible trades of Betencourt (4 million), Belisle (4 million), or Helton hanging it up (5 million) So you have to figure there will be multiple free agents in that 2013 lineup. (have no idea where they’ll get them and I’m not saying we are getting Josh Hamilton or Cole Hamels, but we will be getting some new players.
Mke
June 6, 2012 at 7:24 PM (UTC -6)
Are we really sure that the Monfort’s aren’t coming out with another 15 million in profits?