I have tried, real hard, in the past to care about the MLB draft. I have read all the expert analysis in the past and tried to decide who I thought the Rockies should draft. I have read all the post event analysis and one expert will say the Rockies had a good draft and another will say they didn’t. I have tried to follow the guys when they first get drafted and care. I cannot anymore.
In a world where the NFL reigns supreme, whether I like it or not, the NFL draft is full of guys who will make an immediate impact on their team. The NFL draft is relevant. For the most part the MLB draft is not. Of the guys drafted yesterday in the first round and the compensation round hardly any of them will play in the big leagues this year and a vast majority will not see time in 2013 either. In fact, according to the stat Drew Goodman threw out last night during the Rockies telecast, 32% of all those drafted in the first round will not EVER make it to the big leagues. EVER! There is a strong possibility that the guys the Rockies drafted yesterday will never play in Coors Field (other than the usual star treatment they get after being drafted where they take BP with the team in the coming weeks).
I know MLB wants us to care about the draft, try to drum up the publicity that the NFL does, but the fact remains that it just doesn’t make sense to care.
Here is who the Rockies drafted recently and other players drafted that year.
2011: Rockies selected Tyler Anderson with the 20th overall pick and in looking at the names 10 spots before or after their pick I don’t see a name that is currently in the big leagues. Anderson is currently in A ball in Asheville for the Rockies. He is at least a few years from big leagues.
2010: Kyle Parker was the Rockies first round selection and the 26th overall pick. He is in Modesto playing A+ ball with the Nuts. He currently has a .714 OPS so do not expect him to be promoted anytime soon. Looking at the picks prior to Parker I see Chris Sale drafted 13th overall by the Chicago White out of college. Sale did play for the White Sox last year and he just won the AL Pitcher of the Month award for May. I would call that a success, so far. Drew Pomeranz was also drafted in 2010 by the Cleveland Indians with the 5th overall pick. Otherwise not a lot of players drafted in2010 are in the big leagues currently…other than some kid named Bryce Harper.
2009: This was Stephen Strasburg’s draft class and we know how he has turned out (after Tommy John surgery he has returned and is living up to the hype). Here we are three years after the 2009 draft and only names like Strasburg, Dustin Ackley, Mike Minor, Mike Leake and Drew Storen are names that are recognizable. That’s five out of 32 names for those keeping track at home. The Rockies drafted Tyler Matzek in 2009 and his troubles in the minor leagues are well documented. Matzek was the Rockies top rated prospect by many going into 2011 and by the time the year was over he wasn’t even in the top 10 Rockies prospects. The Rockies also got Tim Wheeler late in the first round in ’09 and he is in Colorado Springs playing AAA ball currently after an impressive 2011 in AA.
2008: Going back four years we find more big league players drafted in ’08: Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hosmer, Brian Matusz, Buster Posey, Yonder Alonso and Gordon Beckham were all drafted in the first 10 picks. All in all I see 16 names drafted that year currently in the big leagues. This is the year the Rockies drafted Christian Friedrich 25th overall and so far 2012 seems to be a good year for Friedrich as he has had a few solid outings, including last night’s gem against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
2007: There are a few names in ’07 that were supposed to be sure-thing All Stars. Matt LaPorta was traded for C.C. Sabathia in the Milwaukee/Cleveland trade and he was supposed to be a can’t-miss bat and he, well, missed. Josh Vitters for the Chicago Cubs was supposed to be the heir apparent at third base when Aramis Ramirez moved on, Ramirez is gone and Vitters is just now at AAA and looking at his stats is only being promoted because they need to, not based on strong performance. And in ’07 is when the Rockies drafted Casey Weathers with the 8th overall pick out of Vanderbilt. Weathers was supposed to have a fast track to the big leagues to help the Rockies bullpen very quickly, ultimately becoming the team’s closer. After arm issues caused him to miss all of 2009 Weathers is now with the Cubs in AA and has a career minor league ERA of 4.15.
2006: In 2006 players like Evan Longoria, Brandon Morrow, Clayton Kershaw, Drew Stubbs, Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer and Ian Kennedy were drafted. We have Cy Young winners and very solid everyday big league players. But there are also names like Bill Rowell (drafted 9th by Baltimore), Kasey Kiker (12th by Texas), Brett Sinkbeil (19th by Florida) and Colton Williams (22nd by Washington) who were drafted. This was a good year for the Rockies but not because of who they drafted. The Rockies selected Greg Reynolds second overall in ’06 (Longoria, Kershaw and Lincecum were all available) and Reynolds has been a big pile of fail. While he has reached the Rockies he has been very unsuccessful once he gets here. But now the Rockies have Tyler Colvin (13th pick by the Cubs) and Adam Ottovino (30th by the Cardinals) on their team and contributing.
2005: Ah, 2005, the draft class in which all future draft classes will be compared. These are the names of players who have made the All-Star game from the first 12 picks in ’05: Justin Upton (1st overall), Ryan Zimmerman (4th), Ryan Braun (5th), Ricky Romero (6th), Troy Tulowitzki (7th), Andrew McCutchen (11th) and Jay Bruce (12th). Add in solid contributors like Alex Gordon (2nd), Mike Pelfrey (9th) and Cameron Maybin (10th) and the first 12 picks were really successful in ’05. Only Jeff Clement and Wade Townsend never panned out (Clement did see time in the big leagues, though, while Townsend has not). As we move down the draft list in ’05 there are names like Chris Volstad, Cliff Pennington, Matt Garza, Colby Rasmus and Tyler Greene who have or are currently everyday big league players. Finally Jacoby Ellsbury was drafted 23rd overall by the Red Sox and he is also an All-Star and was in the MVP running in 2011. 2005 was a great draft class and even in this case there are at least 12 guys who have not reached the big leagues and might never impact. So in one of the best classes ever 1/3 of the guys could be considered busts. Doesn’t really instill confidence in the draft or who is drafted.
Back to this year’s draft. The Rockies selected David Dahl out of Oak Mountain High School where he played outfield. In Compensation Round A they selected Eddie Butler out of Radford University, a pitcher. Since I know nothing about either, here are a few reviews of them.
Dahl
ESPN.com: Dahl is a guy I saw this spring and really believe in his ability to hit, as he also hit very well against good pitching with wood bats on the summer circuit. He’s often compared to Colby Rasmus as a left-handed-hitting Alabama prep center fielder with above-average tools. Dahl has a chance for five above average to plus tools with average current raw power and at least plus speed. He also has an advanced feel for the game and some struggles this spring may be the only reason he made it to the 10th pick. A really nice pick by the Rockies here.
MLB.com: Dahl gets some comparisons to Johnny Damon, both in terms of body type and somewhat how he plays the game. He doesn’t have the power Damon has shown – Dahl’s more of an alley guy – but he’s got a good approach at the plate, makes consistent contact and uses his speed well on both sides of the ball. He should hit for plenty of average and be a base-stealing threat. He’s above average defensively in terms of range and arm, and his baseball IQ helps all of his tools play up. Dahl can get a little lengthy with his swing, some added strength would help his power profile a bit and he’s still learning how to read fly balls off the bat.
Butler
ESPN.com: Butler hits the mid-90s at times but needs to develop his slider and changeup, as well as shore up his command, or he’ll head to the bullpen.
MLB.com: [Butler] served as a starter for Radford and had a solid junior season, finishing particularly strong, with a pair of 10-strikeout performances in his last four starts. He was touching 97 mph, with a lot of eyes on him late in the year. His slider doesn’t grade out as well as the plus heater, but it has the chance to be a solid secondary pitch. He does have a changeup, but it’s behind the other two pitches. That, plus command issues and his size, lead many to believe he’s better suited for a bullpen role, though his mechanics and command did improve as the season wore on. Even if he gets an opportunity to start, if a team wants to shorten him up as a reliever, they could be getting a big league bullpen arm in a hurry.
All in all the Rockies will draft 50-60 players or thereabouts and most we will never hear from again. I pay much closer attention to the prospect rankings each year as those lists have some professional baseball data behind them, in most cases.
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15 comments
Bryan Willis
June 5, 2012 at 1:07 PM (UTC -6)
Sorry Travis, I have given you a shot, but you seem to know nothing about baseball. You seem like a displaced football fan who found a spot that allows you have to have a voice writing about baseball, so you took it. Seriously, you don’t care about the draft? I understand that we don’t know a whole lot about these players, but to “not care” is baffling when you write for a site with ESPN.
Travis Lay
June 5, 2012 at 1:11 PM (UTC -6)
First, let me clarify, we are not with ESPN. They do not claim us, we are lucky enough that they link us from time to time.
Second, how does my opinion on the draft reflect my knowledge of the sport? Why get all riled over guy who might not ever play for the Rockies or ever play in the big leagues? Guys like Helton and Tulo are fantastic, but there isn’t anything when the guys are drafted that indicates they will become those players. I suppose it really is exactly the same with the NFL, and thus I don’t care about the NFL draft either. Everyone is all over RG3 and Luck but so was everyone when Manning and Leaf were drafted. It’s all a crap shoot and in baseball the casino definitely holds the better odds.
Third, thanks for reading!
CodenameDuchess
June 5, 2012 at 3:27 PM (UTC -6)
Wow, that is quite the over reaction. He’s not saying that the draft is not important, he is saying that the odds of these picks contributing are so bad that he doesn’t feel it’s necessary to watch the draft like one would watch the NFL draft. I think most people would agree with that.
That said I do like to casually follow the draft for two reasons….
1. It makes the college world series a little more interesting because you learn about the major players and where they will be going.
2. It provides ammo for screaming about O’Dowd incompetence, i.e. drafting Greg Reynolds at the 2 spot who scouts had pegged as a back of the rotation starter or middle reliever. Well done O’Dowd.
JD
June 6, 2012 at 10:30 AM (UTC -6)
To be fair, based on his performance, the guy who the Monforts consider the best GM ever doesn’t seem to care about the draft either.
Brendan Giles
June 5, 2012 at 3:11 PM (UTC -6)
Another thing: what about signability? Teams go out and draft “best available” only to have some db agent demand 10s of millions for someone that won’t even have a chance to impact the club for several years. talk about lame. hopefully the rule changes begin to address this.
i also am having a hard time getting excited about the Dahl-Damon comparison. Umm, Johnny Damon with no power? La-dee-FRICKIN-da. Maybe he will grow out the giant beard like the Red Sox version of Damon. I guess that would be pretty cool.
Travis Lay
June 5, 2012 at 3:50 PM (UTC -6)
I agree, Brendan, both of the blurbs above about the Rockies two first picks are not too exciting, are they. And as the guys on the telecast said last night – comparing an 18 year old to Damon isn’t really fair. These guys have a LOT of growing up to do yet. Not all of them are Justin Upton or Bryce Harper who can make the jump to the bigs fairly quickly, it takes them a few years, at least. So getting excited or caring about these picks just isn’t worth it, to me.
Now when they release to top prospects list every year that is worth my time. Those are the guys who are likely to make an impact, not those drafted.
BA Baracus
June 5, 2012 at 3:36 PM (UTC -6)
What about guys drafted after round 1 that have been successful for the Rockies or other clubs.
The draft is about potential, potential is more fun to think about when the team stinks like it does this year except for the last 8 games. The major point here is that the Rockies can’t just go draft a 2nd baseman and 2 pitchers and expect them to contribute immediately, that’s the let down with the MLB draft. It takes so much more development to be a pro baseball player than a pro football player where you mainly need to be big, fast, strong, instinctive and able to hit or take a hit to be successful. It is fun to see a guy like Corey Dickerson who was not a 1st round draft choice work his way up the prospect list, but his development has taken years where a free agent like Danny Woodhead is able to contribute to the NFL right away. There is much more instant gratification from a fan’s perspective with the NFL, but more appreciation for the journey the MLB guys take to get to the bigs.
Travis Lay
June 5, 2012 at 3:52 PM (UTC -6)
The Mike Piazza stories are some of the best stories. Guys drafted late or maybe not even drafted (Ryan Speier got quite a bit of attention last night because he went to Radford, too, and was undrafted) who make it to the big leagues is always a lot of fun. Pujols was unknown.
BA Baracus
June 5, 2012 at 4:04 PM (UTC -6)
I wonder what percentage of starting pitchers that are currently in the majors were drafted after rounds 1 or 2. It seems like the position players are more likely to come out of nowhere, but I could be wrong.
Logan Burdine
June 5, 2012 at 3:38 PM (UTC -6)
I follow the draft, but care a lot more about what is currently going on in Asheville, Modesto, Tulsa, and the Springs.
Pete
June 5, 2012 at 6:48 PM (UTC -6)
If the draft is good, then these guys will eventually begin to percolate up to the Rockies. Watching them develope is fun but I don’t really have that much interest in players that have such a low percentage of impact on the team. I believe you have committed a giant sin by writing an article on Rockies draft choices and not mentioning Matt Harrington once. We can never forget.
The impact of the draft just doesn’t compare to other sports, since Latin players are frequently signed without going thru a draft. Cubans occasionally float in without a draft, free agent signings have more immediate impact than drafts, and trades are more frequent and have more impact in baseball than other sports.
Brendan Giles
June 6, 2012 at 10:22 AM (UTC -6)
The Matt Harrington debacle is always a good reference for signability. It will be interesting to see if the “signing caps” imposed by MLB this year do anything to prevent that sort of thing.
Troyf
June 6, 2012 at 9:37 AM (UTC -6)
There is a secondary message here that ALL baseball fans should understand. Baseball is not like football or basketball where you can judge a players future by even an eye test, much less numbers. And I am talking from the minors on upward. Rosario had 222 at bats at Modesto, hit 4 homers and had an ops of 704. He was in the bigs two years later and will likely be a regular on this team for a. Long, long time.
Secondly, it is pure insanity to judge young players on their first few seasons in the bigs. Calling Pomeranz a bust or nothing more than a third starter for example. Last year, Friedrich had a 5plus era in a PITCHERS park. Pomeranz, a full year and a half younger, was striking out 10.6 hitters per 9 and cruising through the minors.
But after a whopping five starts this year, we can already rule him as a no shot front end starter? Ummmmm, no. Anymore than you can say Cargo was going to be a failure after his first 450 big league at bats. (or have we forgotten those?).
Going yhe other way, I have seen people here yearn for the days of Ian Stewart and lament that he was never given a fair shot here. Guys, he had over 1400 plate appearences as a Rockie. During that time he had an ops+ of 87 in one of thebest hittersparks in the majors and never hit above .259
Making snapdecisions about young players and combining that by WANTING certain guys to be better are two of the killer mistakes teams make in real baseball. I am actually glad Blackman was on the DL this year, because I have no doube Tracy would have made that mistake with Fowler this year.
I think Pomeranz is going to be a hell of a pitcher. What he needs is time. The next time theRockies bring him up, they need to leave him the hell alone for a couple hundred innings so they and we can make a more reasoned de ision. (yes, tnat means put hm in the rotation to start next year as well, he is not getting the 200 innings this year.
CodenameDuchess
June 6, 2012 at 12:13 PM (UTC -6)
You make a lot of good points. I think the one thing that concerns me is that Pomeranz was talked about as a power lefty. When I hear power lefty I think Clayton Kershaw. Someone who sits 92-94 and can go 95+ on occasion. What I have seen from Pomeranz so far is a guy that sits 89-91 which reminds me of an early Jeff Francis. Now who knows maybe the guy is hurt or maybe he is the next Cliff Lee.
Troyf
June 6, 2012 at 3:30 PM (UTC -6)
Pomeranz showed that velocity all throughout yhe minors. That said, velocity was not his issue this year, it was command. In almost the exact same number of innings (23 to 24) this year, he walked 15 as a Rockie and has walked 7 as a Sky Sox.
In his mior league career, he has walked an average of 3.2 per nine innings. In his four starts last year for the Rockies, He was at 2.5
This year withthe Rockies, he sits at over 5 walks per start. Do we take his control from 30 career professional starts or from the 5 this year? I think he will be better, but only time will tell. He needs that time