Stick with me here.
In a big hairy monster sort of voice “the big AL East is full of big bats. Rawr! Going from the AL East to the NL West (the land of spacious ballparks and light hitting teams) should be beneficial to Jeremy Guthrie. RAWR!”
OK, you can ignore me again.
That was all the talk when Guthrie was traded to the Rockies with Jason Hammel going back to Baltimore. With Guthrie going from pitching against the big bank rolled New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox a few times a year to pitching against AAA hitting San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants would most certainly cause his ERA to drop.
Last night Hammel faced those big bad Red Sox, in Boston, and while it certainly wasn’t his best outing of the year he still pitched five innings and only allowed one earned run on five hits and three walks (seven strikeouts). On the other end of the universe Guthrie was facing the Arizona Diamondbacks, in Arizona, and in 3 1/3 innings Guthrie allowed seven earned runs on 11 hits and two walks while striking out four.
Last night marked the fifth time this year Guthrie has allowed five runs or more in an outing and the second time he has failed to complete the fourth inning. Meanwhile Hammel has yet to allow five or more runs in any outing this year and lasted at least five innings every time. In nine starts in 2012 Guthrie has two quality starts (pitching at least six innings and allowing no more than three earned runs) and carries a 6.35 ERA. In 11 starts for Hammel he has seven quality starts and sports a 2.97 ERA.
Can we have Jason Hammel back?
And the underlying numbers support Hammel. Hammel has struck out 65 batters vs 22 walks issued while Guthrie has only K’d 23 hitters and walked 19. Hammel’s ERA+ (adjusted for park factors, league averages, etc) is 138 (really, really good) and Guthrie’s is 72 (really, really bad). Each of their FIP and xFIP suggest that their ERA is fairly accurate and based on their performance this year their ERA should remain about the same.
Here is the Pitch F/X chart for Guthrie’s game last night with only the balls resulting in the end of the plate appearance. It’s hard to see but both home runs he allowed were almost dead center of the plate.
And because heat maps are cool, here is Guthrie’s heat map from last night with the bases empty.
Now here is the heat map with men on base.
Notice how much more of the plate he touched last night with men on base? Guthrie was catching a lot more of the plate with men on base.
When we look at the entire season Guthrie is catching the plate, a lot. Notice that when the bases are empty he hits below the strike zone a lot more often then when runners are on.
Bases empty, entire season
With me on base, entire season
I can’t believe I am typing this, but can we have Jason Hammel back?
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10 comments
Logan Burdine
June 6, 2012 at 10:16 AM (UTC -6)
Don’t forget about Matt Lindstrom! He is on the DL right now, but was lights out before getting hurt. He was pretty damn solid last year too. But, that’s okay, it made a lot of sense to toss him in the deal. Oh wait. It didn’t make any effing sense at all.
Brendan Giles
June 6, 2012 at 10:18 AM (UTC -6)
I don’t mean to give Guthrie a pass (he was his normal awful self last night), but is there any way that pitching to Rosario effects his willingness to bury a pitch when there are runners on? I love Rosario and am happy to see him behind the dish on a daily basis to speed his development, but he currently sucks as a receiver. When the pitcher doesn’t trust the catcher to block a pitch in the dirt, it must be hard to keep everything down. No excuses for Guthrie, but it is something to consider…
Travis Lay
June 6, 2012 at 10:23 AM (UTC -6)
I don’t have a link or remember exactly one spot where I read this, so take me for my word (and you might end up a fool!
) but who a pitcher throws to makes little to no difference.
English Rox
June 8, 2012 at 2:23 PM (UTC -6)
I take you at your word mate……however, Rosario can not catch for toffee. Pretend you are a pitcher, tell me which of these choices would you prefer?
Hypothetical A:
Skipper: We are going with Billy Boy tonight, he been hitting a ton, you see him hit that fastball last night sheesh!
Pitcher: [SILENCE]
Skipper: Now I know Billy has dropped a few, jeez that one against the Brewers..
Pitcher: Scored it a Wild Pitch, two scored..
Skipper: Darn!
Hypothetical B:
Pitcher: Whose catching tonight skip?
Skipper: The Great Wall of China
Pitcher: [GRINS]
Surely, somewhwere, deep down, it does matter to a pitcher who is catching and it does effect his frame of mind.
chrischrisman
June 6, 2012 at 10:30 AM (UTC -6)
Good post. When we all wrote about this last February (http://bit.ly/LlxMdz) there was some cautious optimism that Guthrie would be an upgrade, although skepticism as to how much of one, and whether he was worth the loss of Lindstrom along with Hammel. I didn’t much like the deal, but it’s startling to me how awful he’s been, and those heat maps are a big indication as to why the results have been so bad.
Travis Lay
June 6, 2012 at 11:47 AM (UTC -6)
Damn – don’t steal my thunder! Logan and I were chatting about writing a “I told you so, Dan” piece and link all the stuff we wrote before the season.
JD
June 6, 2012 at 10:36 AM (UTC -6)
I never hated Hammel. As a back-of-the-rotation starter, he was the best we’ve ever had. I don’t know why others did. Sure, he had bad periods, but his average over time was an ERA just over 4.50 while a Rockie, and that’s actually better than most all other Rockies pitchers have done over their careers with the team.
Hammel had some really good hot streaks with the Rockies.
Travis Lay
June 6, 2012 at 11:49 AM (UTC -6)
I hated Hammel towards the end of last year, especially. But now, looking back….the grass is always greener. Isn’t it?
Seth
June 6, 2012 at 12:53 PM (UTC -6)
To tell you the truth, I am not surprised Guthrie is this bad, after all, he has been the worst starter in MLB for three consecutive years running. Granted he was pitching against teams in the AL East and in hitters friendly parks. This is just another terrible trade by Odowd trying to fool us, not so fast Odowd. Also, I feel like the trade of Hammel is just another example of how Apodaca has failed…again. He clearly could not get the best out of Hammel and failed to use his talents. Another example is the guy pitching for Kansas City tonight, Felipe Paulino (remember him?) He was one of Houston’s top young pitchers they had and traded him for Clint Barmes. Yeah we used him in our bullpen last year where his ERA was over 7, then designated him for assignment and traded him to KC for nothing. What has he done for KC? Well they inserted him into their rotation immediately and he finished the year strong and this year he is 3-1 with a sub 3 ERA. I am scared for our young pitchers who have to listen and learn from Apodaca.
Anonymous
June 6, 2012 at 6:21 PM (UTC -6)
The guy is just terrible, a streak and momentum killer. They have got to get him out of the starting rotation. That trade was clearly the worst move of the off season.
I cringe every time that I see he is up for another start, and pretty much write that game off as a loss before it starts. The team also seems to play pretty uninspired when he is on the mound. I think that the every day players have given up on him. It is hard to believe that his record is 3-4, it seems much worse.
Jed