The Colorado Triple Machine
All-Star games, in any sport, are nice in theory, but aren’t that great in reality. The NBA has been able to turn its All-Star game into a showcase of the league’s absurd athleticism, but that’s because of the unique contests that are held the night before the game. The actual game itself is basically an And1 tape. Dunks abound, but the players have no desire to play any defense whatsoever, which makes for a rotten overall product. The NFL Pro Bowl is also pretty terrible. They recently moved it to the week before the Super Bowl in attempt to get some kind of interest going and they almost scrapped the game all together this year. However, the big difference between the NFL and NBA’s All-Star exhibitions and MLB’s mid-season exhibition is that for whatever reason baseball has decided that the game needs to count. In fact, Bud and Co. have decided it is such an important affair that it needs to decide which league gets home field advantage in the World Series.
I’m no fan of Selig, but this move to make the All-Star game play such a huge role in the final outcome of the season is probably my biggest sticking point with the league’s commissioner. (And I have a ton of sticking points, trust me.) It’s truly absurd. Is there anybody out there that feels the Cardinals – a wildcard team – should’ve been at home for Games 6 and 7 of the 2011 World Series? The Rangers won 96 games and made back-to-back trips. I’m a Cards fan and freely admit that the Rangers got a raw deal. Of course, maybe CJ Wilson should’ve had a better showing in the All-Star game, but he seems to have a problem rising to the occasion when it counts the most. Still, you get my point. It’s just silly to have such an enormous thing be decided by an exhibition game that really has little to do with merit. But, don’t expect Selig to make any changes. Change is a bad, bad word to the Commissioner. We’re stuck with a meaningless game that baseball has turned far too meaningful.
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Earlier this week, Jim Tracy spoke out in frustration over the lack of All-Star votes for Carlos Gonzalez so far this year. For once, Jim and I completely agree. CarGo has been the NL’s best offensive outfielder this year. Maybe it’s because of the Rockies’ poor overall performance so far, but whatever the case, Carlos is not getting the attention he deserves. However, he’s not the only Rox outfielder that belongs in the All-Star game this year. Dexter Fowler also deserves to go, maybe even as much as Gonzalez.
Now, I realize that Tracy’s feelings for Fowler seem to mirror the City of Denver’s feelings for Jay Cutler. Chances of him advocating for the emerging centerfielder to make the all-star game are pretty much zero. In fact, Tracy’s early season tinkering with Dex is probably the biggest reason why he’s been flying under the radar so far this season. Most candidates already have 215 – 250 plate appearances. Dex has 181. Melky Cabrera – currently fifth in NL OF voting – has almost 30% more plate appearances than Fowler. Yet, even with this disparity in sample size, Dexter has posted numbers that place him in the “very good” category of MLB outfielders. A little proof:
Those are terrific numbers, no matter how you slice it. In the National League, he ranks in the top five of virtually every single offensive category. His WAR isn’t in the top ten, but that’s strictly because of his defensive metrics, which are probably a little skewed right now. Not that he’s been Jim Edmonds in center, by any means, but he has a lot more to deal with than most with Coors and it’s safe to expect those numbers to rise as the season progresses. You certainly wouldn’t trade it for his offensive output.
In the end, Dex won’t even sniff the All-Star game. His manager doesn’t even think he should get in. He won’t get the fan or the player vote, but he is without a doubt deserving. Last year, the NL had 11 outfielders. If you don’t think Dex has been one of the best 11 outfielders in the NL this year, you need to take off the Jim Tracy blinders. Offensively, he’s been everything that we have always hoped he would turn into. If he can live up to his potential defensively, maybe the All-Star nominations will follow. Whatever happens, I’m glad the Rox have Dex. I hope they finally realize what they have in him.
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JD
June 7, 2012 at 6:14 PM (UTC -6)
Dex is only deserving in a very imaginary world where first-half performance is the only thing that matters. As it is, name matters most, followed by team and timezone.
And honestly, while Dex’s numbers are top-6 at this point, he hasn’t sustained it long enough to convince even me that he’s truly an All-Star. If he were borderline in the past, a la 2009 Brad Hawpe, it would be easier to believe in his breakthrough. I’m not saying he won’t deserve it soon (or even this year, but only because way too many guys get in), but if I’m managing the NL champions and I want home field for the Series, I’m not letting Dex bat for me. He’ll K against a top AL pitcher for sure.
Logan Burdine
June 7, 2012 at 8:02 PM (UTC -6)
Go look at what he’s done over his last full season at the plate. What you’re saying just isn’t true.
Travis Lay
June 8, 2012 at 5:02 AM (UTC -6)
The other night Patrick Saunders tweeted something about Fowler’s K propensity and it not being good for leadoff. This was in response to a question someone asked him and his answer is all I care about. Why is a K so much worse than Scutaro flying out to shallow right? Or grounding out to 2nd? Or making an out in general?? When you look at their OBP it shouldn’t even be a question who leads off for the Rockies.
The K is viewed entirely too negatively, especially with Fowler. He get’s on base above league average and hits for good power. But the old school thinkers covering the Rockies (on TV and paper) still think striking out is like death for someone who leads off. This resonates with viewers who do not think for themselves.
All of this, I think, continues to lead to the popular misconception of who Fowler is and what he brings to this team. Don’t look at just April, look at 2012. Don’t look at just early April 2011, look at ALL of 2011. He performs. Period.
This same line of thinking is what keeps him from being an obvious choice for the All-Star game. If the fans in Denver don’t think so then surely those around the country do not, either. I am not saying he should be STARTING in the All-Star game, but like the poll question asks: if 10 OF’ers go to the game why in the heck shouldn’t Fowler be one of them?? I haven’t ranked it myself, but he has to be easily in the top 10 in the NL.
Braun, Holliday, CarGo, Beltran, Cutch, Melky, (tempted to say Young and Upton in AZ but they haven’t out performed Dex this year), Stanton (just thinking of him so this list is NOT in order…), Victorino?? That’s 7 guys I can think of (mind you it is 5am as I write this).
JD
June 8, 2012 at 10:34 AM (UTC -6)
You seriously need to update your list. Have you even looked at this year’s numbers? The top 10 qualifying NL OFs by OPS (and there’s a big gap after #10):
Cargo
Braun
McCutchen
Stanton
Fowler
Cabrera
Beltran
Ethier
Prado
Bruce
Cuddyer is actually #11. Holliday isn’t nearly having a deserving year, though he’ll probably get in over Prado or Bruce due to name recognition. Upton is far worse – his .704 OPS is below league average. He’s slugging .365! Young has barely played a month, and doesn’t have nearly the rep to get in in spite of it (unlike Matt Kemp, who leads all vote-getters even though he’ll enter the break having played 5 weeks all season). Victorino has a .319 OBP to go with his .725 OPS. No way.
JD
June 8, 2012 at 10:47 AM (UTC -6)
Oh and Bourn – he’s not hitting at an All-Star level, but a bunch of talking heads have convinced themselves that his speed somehow trumps all that.
Anyway, yes, it’s hard to leave Fowler off a list of 10, but I still suspect it will happen. I personally don’t think more than 6 should make it (it’s like the Pro Bowl – 11 QBs make it because of all the withdrawals), and Dex still doesn’t feel truly top-shelf enough.
JD
June 8, 2012 at 10:53 AM (UTC -6)
You’re right about the Ks. They are a reason I don’t trust him against top-shelf pitching (I think he fattens up on the bad stuff), but they’re also a direct consequence of working counts, and Dex still has an OBP far above that of the typical leadoff hitter, and far above any candidate the Rox have to replace him there. Throw in his speed and it’s a no-brainer. Even if he does K, I’ll take a guy who’ll take 5 pitches per AB getting as many ABs as possible to wear out the opponent.
But yeah, he’s a sucker for the breaking ball on two-strike counts.
Troyf
June 8, 2012 at 10:18 AM (UTC -6)
I have stated this before, but I yhonk the biggestproblem Dexter has is how people view him. I listed his stas fom the all star break last year to last Sunday. News flash for the doubters, this includes you Jim Tracy, the guy can flat out play.
Oh, I know, he strikes out a lot. Helton has only struck out 24 times thi year, he isa TERRIFIC 5 hole hitter, right?
Scutaro hardly ever strikes out, lets return him to theleadoff spot, because that works out great.
Forget OF, Dexter is currently in the top 10 of the NL in OPS. Cargo has been getting a lot of well deserved press, but Dexter is every bit as important to this team right now. He should absolutely be in the discussion for an all star berth. He needs to stay hot to get it, because nobody wants to give this guy he benefit of the doubt, including his own manager and many of the teams fans.
chrischrisman
June 8, 2012 at 11:08 AM (UTC -6)
First, some throat clearing: I think Dexter should be the everyday CF and that he should bat leadoff. I think Dexter is a good (sometimes great) player, and hasn’t come close to hitting his ceiling. I like Dex. I voted for Dexter 75 times for the All Star Game. But I voted “no” in the BSB poll, the only person to do so right now. And here’s why: If All Stars are truly “all” stars in the sense that their all around play is better than their peers, then Dexter’s road numbers are not only well below the caliber of an all star’s, they’re practically disqualifying. I didn’t think that was true until this morning, but the more I looked the less I liked. I looked at the road numbers for all 48 OFers on the All Star ballot. Dex has 64 PAs on the road, a relatively low number, so to be fair I eliminated anyone with fewer than 60 PAs. That left 42 of the 48. Of those remaining players, I looked at the following road stats: AVG, OBP, OPS, TB and sOPS+. I think sOPS+ is the best metric, but the others are helpful, too. Dex’s numbers are as follows: .175 BA, .254 OBP, .570 OPS, 18 TB and 62 sOPS+. Here’s where that ranks among the 42 with 60+ PA on the ASG ballot: 41st in BA, tied for 40th in OBP, 38th in OPS, 39th in TB, and 39th in sOPS+. In terms of overall road numbers, Dex is close to Cameron Maybin, Nyjer Morgan, Jose Tabata, Andres Torres, Alex Presley and Emil Bonifacio. Two players were right at league average — 100 for sOPS+ — on the road: David DeJesus and Alfonso Soriano. To give you a sense of comparison to Dex’s numbers, DeJesus has a .234 BA, .345 OBP, .697 OPS, and 33 TB. Sorano’s are close to that, just lower in OBP and higher in OPS on account of SLG. So I think Dexter’s road numbers need improvement, substantial improvement, before he gets consideration for the ASG. In fact, I’d just be satisfied if he showed improvement of these numbers compared to his teammates. Right now, his sOPS+ for the road is the worst among everyday position players on the team. Only Ramon Hernandez (DL) was worse. For all these reasons, I voted no, but I’m a contrarian and so I hate unanimity.
Brendan Giles
June 8, 2012 at 2:47 PM (UTC -6)
I am with Troy’s long time assertion that Dex would be viewed differently if he wasn’t so skinny and fast. If he was 20 pounds bigger and hit in the middle of the order, he would be the toast of the town. Instead he finds himself the target of Jim Tracy’s ire and you would think his K’s count for two outs with all the complaints. can we just re-name him ellis burks junior and hit him second? then maybe he will finally get some respect.
Simone
June 8, 2012 at 3:46 PM (UTC -6)
CarGo doesn’t deserve to be in the All-Star game. Why? His defense. That’s all that needs to be said.
CUBUFFSPAC12
June 9, 2012 at 7:38 PM (UTC -6)
Dex doesn’t deserve sh!t!!! Having a 7 for 9 double header and increasing your BA by 60 points over a 2.5 week span only to have it drop 20 points in the following week is not AS material. he runs too hot and too cold with too many Ks. Dex will finish this season and his career as what he is, wasted talent, a .260 AVG, 330 OBP and .540 SLG. He is an average player with glimpses of greatness, much like EVERY player on the ROSTER!!
Logan Burdine
June 9, 2012 at 8:26 PM (UTC -6)
You think an .870 OPS is a waste of talent? That’s your projection. Go look where that would rank him year in and year out. Give me a break. This comment is exactly what I’m talking about. He’s not Willie Effing Mays. It’s like he needs to be a HOFer and nothing else is good enough.
SapperDrew
June 14, 2012 at 2:20 AM (UTC -6)
You are dead right on my numbers, however WTF has he done other than a hot three week stretch. The dude is falling back down to earth and he is NOT an every day CF, only on this team he is. BLUF, dude strikes out way too much and what’s he done since you posted this blog? Answer: Absolutely NOTHING!!! Get a clue and look at his past three years. The guys will never hit over .270, never hit more than 20 HRs, drive in more than 55 or 60 have an OBP higher than .333. Three years is more than enough to ‘grow’ as a player. He takes away a few hits in CF, but far from gold glover, can’t steal a base worth a sh!t and he Ks way too much. You want to write a blog about how a guy just reaches the .303 BA and say that he deserves votes in the AS Game and no sooner than you wrote this is the dude tail spinning back down to the .250 AVG. I’ll vote for McCuthen in PITT, that is what a CF is supposed to be not deKs!
Logan Burdine
June 14, 2012 at 7:33 AM (UTC -6)
Okay, Jim Tracy, you show me where I wrote anything about batting average in that post and I’ll give you a million dollars. I couldn’t care less about his batting average. It’s a terrible statistic that means absolutely nothing.
Just for the record, he has a .357 OBP in 1800 career PA’s, but you’re right, he’s terrible b/c he has struggled in his 15 PAs since I wrote this post. Such a joke.
SapperDrew
June 14, 2012 at 4:31 PM (UTC -6)
Really BA is a terrible stat that means absolutely nothing?? Last time I checked people aren’t making AS games based off of their OPS and OBP, otherwise Chris Ianetta would’ve been the starting catcher in the game last year. Just say that BA is a worthless stat show how far out of touch you truly are. Last time I checked hits, home runs, RBIs and BA are what get you into the AS game, those things and of course reputation, which deKs has none of at this point in his career. Just because you work and write for the blog doesn’t mean your right. Now go crunch some more worthless numbers and get back to me.
Logan Burdine
June 14, 2012 at 4:53 PM (UTC -6)
I find this comment humorous and ironic. First of all, I admit I’m wrong all the time on here. Secondly, don’t call me out for crunching worthless numbers and then use AS criteria to prove your point. That’s based on perceptions. And BA and RBIs really don’t do much for me. Sorry. Go read Moneyball or one of the other 10,000 books out there about how to appropriately evaluate baseball and get back to me.
SapperDrew
June 15, 2012 at 3:08 PM (UTC -6)
Well there dude, first off the title of your blog is ‘Dexter Fowler deserves All Star attention.’ If you are going to consider that he deserves all star attention then you have to look at all star type numbers. I’ll admit that I was wrong in the importance of OPS and other stats, but the bottom line is that AS need the eye-popping big three in BA, HR, RBI to even get noticed outside of Denver. As for Fowler I’m still not sold on him nor will I ever be until he shows consistency.
SapperDrew
June 17, 2012 at 9:23 PM (UTC -6)
Hey Logan where the hell you at? I thought that you wanted to make a push for deKs to make the AS Game. It looks like you were so fricking wrong. Like CUBUFFS said, a hot three week stretch doesn’t make you an AS.
Logan Burdine
June 17, 2012 at 9:53 PM (UTC -6)
This is a pretty reasonable comment…..
I do apologize for not predicting Dex would have a bad week. That’s my bad. Still, they take 10 or 11 outfielders, and even with his latest swoon, he ranks in the top 10 for NL OFers in wOBA, OPS, and wRC+. I wrote that he had no chance of ever getting in so I don’t really get the point you’re trying to make here. Explain to me how I could have ever been right with this post? It was my opinion that he deserved some attention a week ago and probably still does. You’re making a little too much out of it. I’m not arguing that he’s going to the Hall of Fame.
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