Last night Jim Tracy started Tyler Colvin in centerfield for the second game in a row. Many instantly assume that the decision Tracy is making is Colvin versus Dexter Fowler and unfortunately in Tracy’s case, that might be true.
I think Tracy looks at two things when making decisions, two simple things: 1. age of the player/years of MLB service and 2. the player’s contract value. Someone should tell Tracy there is more to baseball than how old a player is and to shut the door when Dan O’Dowd tells him not to waste the Monfort’s money by sitting a highly paid player.
The question shouldn’t be should Colvin start in place of Fowler but where should Colvin play? I think it is fairly obvious Colvin needs to get regular playing time. Colvin now has four home runs over the past three games and in the past 11 games is hitting .344/.417/.813. On the year he is batting .304/.336./589 with seven dingers.
Colvin should play, but not in center. He can play any of the three outfield positions and first base. He obviously isn’t playing left field in place of Carlos Gonzalez but first base and right field sure seem like a great place for Colvin to get regular playing time. But therein lies the problem: two old guys who get paid a lot of money man those positions, so Tracy will not sit them.
If you follow me on Twitter, last night I was vying hard for Colvin to start in place of Michael Cuddyer (and his $30 million salary and 12 years of service). This year Cuddyer is batting .271/.330/.483 or not nearly as good as Colvin. Over the past 12 games Cuddyer is hitting right along his yearly rates: .273/.347/.523
Troy Renck was stating that Colvin should have started at first. This probably makes even more sense, except that Todd Helton plays first (and he has 16 years of service and is still owed over $20 million). Helton is batting .240/.332/.421 on the year and with his home run last night is batting .302/.393/.491 in the past 14 games. Better than Cuddyer, but not as good as Colvin.
Instead Tracy puts Colvin in for Fowler who only has five years of MLB service and is only due $2.35 million this year. Fowler, in the past 14 games, is hitting .396/.482/.729 and on the season is up to .280/.380/.540 after his slow start. Let me put these numbers next to each other in case the impression has not been made.
Over past 2 weeks (about)
Fowler: .396/.482/.729
Colvin: .344/.417/.813
Helton: .302/.393/.491
Cuddyer: .273/.347/.523
If you had to pick one player to sit who would it be? It certainly shouldn’t be Fowler!
Season to date
Fowler: .280/.380/.540
Colvin: .304/.336./589
Helton: .240/.332/.421
Cuddyer: .271/.330/.483
If two weeks of data isn’t a big enough sample size for you (don’t like to consider players “hot”) then if we check the year-to-date stats then Helton should have been on the bench.
But benching a guy who has been getting on base nearly 50% of the time over the past two weeks and slugging over .700 during that same time frame is simply ludicrous. On top of that since Tracy has benched Fowler the past two games and the Rockies had an off day Fowler has only one plate appearance in the past three days! For those who recall 2007 and how everyone assumed that the length between when the Rockies advanced to the World Series and then the World Series actually started seemingly cooled off the Rockies we would have to assume the same thing for Fowler, right? Why sit a hot hand?? Because he is young? Because he is cheap? I cannot find a good reason.
And one more thing, this year Fowler is hitting .314/.421/.657 against right hand pitching (Bartolo Colon started for the Oakland Athletics last night and is right handed).
It is just another item on a long checklist of items as to why Tracy is a horrid manager.
Rockies starting pitching
Rockies starting pitcher’s ERA, by season:
2012: 6.27
2011: 4.73
2010: 4.21
2009: 4.10
2008: 5.14
2007: 4.58
2006: 4.72
2005: 5.30
2004: 5.54
2003: 5.57
2002: 5.24
—pre humidor—
2001: 5.48
2000: 5.59
1999: 6.19
1998: 5.62
1997: 5.48
1996: 5.68
1995: 5.19
1994: 5.30
1993: 5.49
There you have it, this season’s rotation is the worst in franchise history (to this point). And generally bats heat up as the summer gets hot…
Finally I will leave you with this Tweet:
I have asked. So far, not something on table. RT
@hayespeter: What about getting Cuddy some time at 2b?
This was a tweet by Troy Renck in response to the question by @hayespeter. Never underestimate the casual fan. They will propose the most amazing ideas at times, no matter how insane. But, at least the Rockies are smart enough to not consider Cuddy at second. I guess I have to give the Rockies front office some credit.
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21 comments
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Logan Burdine
June 13, 2012 at 9:27 AM (UTC -6)
They put that guy at second, my head is going to explode. I’m convinced they’re going to deal Dexter after the season, and then we’ll get the whole, ‘why does everyone get better when they leave the Rockies?’ thing/
Logan Burdine
June 13, 2012 at 9:33 AM (UTC -6)
I really am at my wit’s end with the treatment of Dex. It makes no sense whatsoever.
Marcus
June 13, 2012 at 9:45 AM (UTC -6)
The treatment of Dex is a minor issue on this team. If I have to keep hearing about all our “good young pitchers” i’m gonna punch somone. We got these pitchers in trades for Seth Smith and Chris Ianetta. Why would we get this great young talent for those guys? It’s just another Rockies PR push to make it seem like the future is bright when in reality is the complete opposite. The Rockies are entering the late 90′s all over again.
Logan Burdine
June 13, 2012 at 3:02 PM (UTC -6)
I don’t think it is a minor issue at all. It speaks to their inability to develop players and appropriately evaluate things like defense and overall value. They’re poorly run b/c they constantly do stupid things.
TroyF
June 13, 2012 at 5:15 PM (UTC -6)
Dex, Pomeranz and others are big issues because it shows they have no clue about advanced stats or development. We really do have some good young arms. Friedrich, Pomernz and White all have potential.
Are they going to get beaten like drums for awhile? Of course they are. I keep telling everyone and I’ll keep
screaming it, it’s what young pitchers do. They get clobbered.
Friedrich has started 7 major league games. Out of the 7, he has 4 terrific starts (25 IP, 5 ER), 1 so/so start (5 ER against the Astros in 6) where he recovered after a bad start to pitch well and two stinkers. (16ER in 9 combined innings vs. the Mariners and Angels at home) 13 walks and 41 strikeouts in 40 innings is pretty good actually. He has a chance.
White has started 7 games this year as well. 3 were very good starts. 2 were so/so games he kept us in, 2 were clunkers. His Walk/K rate isn’t as good as Friedrich (12 to 26).
That’s 14 starts from two kids and 7 good starts, 3 so/so starts and 4 clunkers. I can live with that from kids. ItI think Pomeranz will be comparable to those two if he comes back up.
Considering age and experience, that’s a hell of a lot better than what the veterans have given us.
The problem goes back to what Logan said and I followed up with. These kids need patient, intelligent coaches who will stick with them through the ups and downs. They can’t be demoted after every bad outing. I’d rather watch any of the three kids I mentioned here get roughed up than watching, Moyer, Mocosco, Francis or Guthrie getting pounded. I’ll give Outman more time. His arm isn’t stretched out yet. I’m not sure he can be successful at Coors Field, but it’s better than watching 49 year olds or 8 million dollar pitchers stink.
Of course, if Dexter is back out of the lineup again, I’ll be so pissed off I won’t be able to see straight, making anything Outman does irrelevant to me tonight.
Seth
June 13, 2012 at 6:40 PM (UTC -6)
I agree that you have to give these kids time and experience but when do the kids not become kids anymore? My question being, how much time are they granted of getting their butt kicked every other start before they are not considered kids anymore and they are merely just another failed “prospect”? If we are still talking about these same problems this time next year then I think it is time to pull the plug on some of them. I think Firedrich could be very reliable in the future if shows he can pitch at coors, I am still not sure on White and Pomeranz are anything special, granted they have not had enough time and we have seen some good things from both of them but I wonder about Pomeranz and his velocity, it still puzzles me why his velocity is not back at mid-90′s like it was before and I wouldnt call his starts in AAA spectacular by any means. But I think if he gets that velocity back he could be real good. Lets see what happens, but of course its ALL going to depend on our coaches and that dummy Odowd.
TroyF
June 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM (UTC -6)
For pitchers, you really want a around 150 to 200 innings minimum, provided they gradually get
better.
It all depends on what they do though. Let’s say White gets rocked in five straight starts. . .
you probably need to drop him for a bit. Lets say he takes his turn the rest of the year pitching like
he is now. One good start, one horrible start, one average start. He goes into spring training
and gets destroyed. Now, while you can give him a chance if someone gets hurt, you probably
need to think about either changing his role or saying he isn’t going to develop.
The time is actually different for each player depending on what they show. By the middle of next year, we should have a very good idea of which (if any) of these guys can be top 2 or 3 starters in this league.
Pomeranz is actually better than what you think. The ballpark he pitches in is an epic disaster for pitchers.
Today the DBacks top pitcher got rocked there (as did Pomeranz) It’s a brutal park to pitch in and heading into today his ERA in his starts was 1.80. Even after todays poor outing, he’s still doing well incomparison to the park. (his ERA is now right where Friedrich’s was for comparison and Pomeranz is not just pitching, but working on different things while he’s down there.
TroyF
June 13, 2012 at 10:11 AM (UTC -6)
Couldn’t have said it better. I would add one thing though.
Cuddyer at night: 299/360/560 920 OPS
A lot of his struggles are day related. I looked up the three year splits and they tell the same tale. OPS of 772 during the day, 825 at night.
At the end of the day, the guy who SHOULD be sitting is Todd Helton. The organization doesn’t want to come to terms with it. Dexter continues to be treated like garbage and it is sickening. I’ve seen so many excuses as to why Dex sucks from some people. He can’t hit on the road (look at last year, he did fine, he’s only had 57 at bats on the road) He isn’t consistent (like anyone on this team is or ever has been) He strikes out too much (yeah, that cancels out the OBP, SLG and OPS numbers.
Here is the thing, barring Dexter hitting .150 for a month, he should be playing everyday and playnig through slumps. We have to see what we have for next year. You can’t do that by jerking him around everytime he has two bad games.
I said it earlier, I’ll say it again. We are all very lucky Blackmon was not healthy this year. If he was, the Rockies would have sent Dexter back to AAA before that hot streak happened and he would be on another team by the all star break. This team and this manager are clueless when it comes to handling a roster.
One more thing: I see that damned Jim Tracy batting Helton 3rd and him coming up with 2 HR I’m going to puke. Jim, he hit better in the three hole last year than he did in the five hole. He had about the same number of at bats in each. You don’t get a reward because you figured out that without Cargo, we needed a left handed bat to hit ahead of Troy. What was your other plan Jim, to hit Lopez or Wigginton 3rd? (they hit 5th and 6th FYI)
I think I’m a little frustrated now. Maybe I need to take a break and watch some Rays games on MLB.TV. Just to get the feeling of how someone else does it right.
Seth
June 13, 2012 at 2:02 PM (UTC -6)
I think the worst part of the Dexter problem is Tracy always says, “I am the biggest fan of Dex, always have been and always will be…” Are you freaking kidding me Tracy??! If you are such a big fan of him, then PLAY him regularly!
And I would like to touch on the Guthrie situation, if you have read his quotes the past two starts its obvious that he is done with this team and wants to leave immediately and is just waiting for the call from Odowd telling him they released him. He has been saying that he wouldnt be surprised if this was his last start time after time. Does that sound like a player who is excited and wants to pitch for the team and franchise? I think not, his mind is clearly gone along with his so called “talent”. I cant believe we still throw him out there every fifth day with that kind of attitude. And how do you think the other players feel when he does say that stuff and he still pitches every fifth day, soon that attitude will travel throughout the locker room and reach guys like Cargo and he is going to want to leave and with his agent, Odowd will get chewed up and spit out in a moment and we would lose Cargo forever. That is my real fear. This team is a disaster and will be for a long time to come, again, clean house and play the players that give us the best shot at winning every day no matter the contract. This is sickening.
Dan
June 13, 2012 at 3:36 PM (UTC -6)
Agreed. This organization is such as clu$terfuck it isn’t even funny. From 2002-2009 the Rox had 7 draft picks in the top 11. This team should be absolutely killing it right now. There is absolutely no rationale as to why O’Dowd has a job. Every game I watch just makes me sick to my stomach with such disgust that this clown still runs the show. I never thought I would be at the point where I openly hope for losses, but I’m currently there in hopes that O’Dowd will finally be shown the door.
The only hope I see is trading Cargo or Tulo for a haul of young prospects, but I have no faith in O’Dowd being able to identify proper talent in return. Please Dick, bring in a new GM who can get the ship righted and who isn’t going to fuck up another top 10 (top 3??) draft pick next year!!! The fanbase deserves it.
BA Baracus
June 13, 2012 at 4:59 PM (UTC -6)
Looks like the Reverend Sharpton needs to get involved, maybe he could force the Rockies to play one of their best players. I’m not saying Tracy is a racist, because most of that race-bating is total B.S., but it might just get Jim to open his eyes to do the right thing if Sharpton shows JT those stats. I’m not saying Travis doesn’t have any pull, but sometimes you have to bring out the big guns.
Michael
June 13, 2012 at 5:27 PM (UTC -6)
When I look at the Rockies roster and the moves and draft picks they have made over the past couple of years I see no coherent plan. That is what is so maddening. The Rockies have drafted two college pitchers in the first or sandwich rounds that project as relievers. Why would you do this? It tells me you think you just need a couple good bullpen arms and quick. At 2B you let Barmes walk (which was fine) but he was an excellent defender and had some pop in his bat. You replace him with an older, worse fielder, and worse hitter in Lopez who is waived than replaced by trading for Ellis who was better than Lopez but was no better with the bat than Barmes and still not as good defensively. You then trade yet again for an aging 2B in Scutaro who not only has no power but can’t get on base any better than Barmes yet again. If all we ask out of 2B is replacement level why don’t we just replace it with our stable of AAAA utilitymen, you might even luck into something good or at least play the platoon splits to increase your production. I could go on for awhile here but I feel myself sinking into the dark hole of despair that is at the bottom of ODowd’s circular logic.
CodenameDuchess
June 13, 2012 at 6:18 PM (UTC -6)
I would really like to see what a month of this would produce…..
1. Fowler – CF
2. Pacheco – 3B
3. Cargo – LF
4. Tulo – SS
5. Colvin – RF
6. Cuddyer – 1B
7. Rosario – C
8. Nelson – 2B (I will also accept EYJ, but not in a f******* platoon!, pick a guy and give him 1 full month)
While we’re at it cut Guthrie and get Pomeranz back up.
If they are going to get their heads kicked in they should at least learn what they have in preparation for next year.
Scott
June 14, 2012 at 11:33 PM (UTC -6)
I would be 100% behind this.
A huge part of the problem is that no one in this organization has a clear picture of what anyone but Helton, Tulo, and Cargo can do, because the revolving door lineups never give guys a chance to settle in.
I’m more convinced every year that no one, and I mean no one, in the FO has the first clue what they’re doing. The team has actually been GOOD for about 10 weeks in 20 years. The rest of the time they have been below average to average. That is a pathetic track record.
English Rox
June 13, 2012 at 6:32 PM (UTC -6)
Good piece. A German football (soccer for you guys) manager once bemoaned that he was not getting a fair shake off the supporters. To illustrate his point he said the following.
“If these guys actually saw me walking on water, they would turn around and say ‘Look at him he can’t even swim’”
I fear this is the perception that Tracy has of Dex.
TroyF
June 13, 2012 at 8:26 PM (UTC -6)
I think the same manager made another cool comment. He told the players who were complaining of the heat and his hard practices that if they wanted to cool off they needed to run harder. He said the harder they ran the more their sweat would cool them off.
SapperDrew
June 14, 2012 at 2:34 AM (UTC -6)
This f**cking organization is horrible from top to bottom. They’ve got things so screwed up that now the fans are going after each other on blogs to determine if deKs is even that good. I myself think the guy has had his time, but if you’re gonna keep him play him. As for Tulo, the dude is not tradable because of his injury prone career and hefty contract. No one is going to trade a crap load of great prospects for him or CARGO. They simply can’t put up the numbers away from CF. They would be top tier players on any other team in the MLB, but not AS caliber. Their home/away splits tell the story. I’ve been a Rox fan for a long time and ’07 and ’09 Rocktober was great, but this team will never win a WS with DoD, JT, the Monforts and their current scouting organization. This truly is the antithesis of how any great sports team is run. They can’t draft players, fail at trades, fail at FA signings, hiring coaches, scouts and any sort of minor league MGMT that can groom players. This is the Charlotte Bobcats of the MLB, at least SD has an excuse and the Cubbies at least made moves in hiring Theo to help their failing teams. JUST HORRIBLE!
Dan
June 14, 2012 at 9:35 AM (UTC -6)
I agree with everything you said with the exception of Cargo and Tulo trades, especially Tulo. Yes he is injury prone but he is still very highly valued among GMs and execs. Many people say if they had to start a team with just one player Tulo would be at the top of the list. He would bring in some good prospects, although I wouldn’t want O’Dowd being the one executing the trade.
This organization truly is a joke. I’m not sure if O’Dowd gets fired after this year I think the tide has turned in the fanbase. Yes people are going to the games but most are people who have already purchased tickets. I imagine the walk-up sales are pretty awful right now and several thousand season-ticket holders will not be renewing. Monfort’s bottom line will be affected soon and hopefully change will follow.
Pete
June 14, 2012 at 9:41 AM (UTC -6)
Yes, the Rockies are horrible right now. Yes, Jim Tracy and Dan O’ Dowd have made numerous brutal, team wrenching mistakes. Yes, they continue to make more of them every day. Yes, the Rox have been left with gaping holes in the line-up and a pitching rotation that is laughably rediculous. But you can’t even think of trading Tulo or Cargo.
Tulo and Cargo are the base of this team. They are the superstars you must build around, finding, trying and installing complimentary players that fit. Since they are the players you seek, getting prospects, even top ones, doesn’t come close to getting you value in a trade. Only another superstar that fits you better would be an acceptable return for one of these. In this case, that isn’t possible either. Instead, like Ernie Banks, Ted Williams or Bob Feller…. the fans can appreciate their effort and play even if the team never gets around to supplying the complimentary players we need.
As a Rockies fan, I cringe watching the systematic dismantling of a contender for a complete rebuild. I worry that we are setting ourselves up for years of frustration as management gropes in the dark for solutions to problems they self-created. But as a baseball fan, I can always watch Tulo and Cargo play and just admire, simply admire…. the grace, athleticism and amazing beauty of the game and the way they play it.
Helton had his day. At one time he was the face of the franchise and the base around which the Rox were built. But no more. Now he has to produce as a compliment to the better players, and if he can’t, then he has to move even more, perhaps to the bench or another team.
Our problems remain painfully obvious. We have a good hitting, but inconsistent, team with an unproductive pitching staff, including bullpen (although they’ve flashed better performance on occasion). The defense, once a mainstay of Colorado, has fallen off a cliff at key positions and is putting pressure on the surrounding positions as well as the pitching staff. Management has to address these problems, fill the holes, make some shrewd trades, and improve the team. A complete rebuild isn’t going to work. Micro-managing the line-up and flipping the batting order isn’t a long term solution. Gutherie didn’t work, fix it. Scutero didn’t work for us, trade him to a team that wants him. Find a third baseman that can play defense AND hit, shouldn’t be an either/or. I miss Vinny. Same with catcher, some offense is desireable, but defense is a must…especially with this young, inexperienced, horrible pitching staff. Get to it.
I’ll still watch them play, I love baseball.
Dan
June 14, 2012 at 10:33 AM (UTC -6)
I would agree if either (A) the farm was stocked or (B) the Monfort’s would increase payroll to the $100-105 million range. However, this team is SO far from being competitive and since neither A or B are reality, I think it would be best to get rid of O’Dowd and trade either Cargo or Tulo in the off-season. Unfortunately O’Dowd has made such a mess of this organization a total rebuild is probably in order and wasting Cargo and Tulo in their prime (and with their salaries escalating quickly) is simply not in the best interest of the club long-term. Just my opinion.
TroyF
June 14, 2012 at 10:35 AM (UTC -6)
I know the road/home splits are bad, but that is always going to be the case. The problem the Rockies have is that their home field is a hitters paradise. Three of the other four teams in the division play in extreme pitchers parks. 27 of our 81 road games each year are against the Dodgers, Giants and Padres. You have two incredible pitching staffs pitching in pitchers parks and Petco which is extreme beyond belief.
So 1/3 of our road games are against those teams. I haven’t even counted the other tough road parks in the NL. Take a look at a guy like Justin Upton as someone else who struggles with the same things. The other reality is when you play in a park like Coors and hit a hot streak, it becomes scorching hot. Dexter actually played fairly well on the road lst year, but his hot streaks had more time at home to blow up the numbers.
Lots of teams will have interest in Cargo and Tulo, I can promise you that. I don’t think you trade either for the next couple of years.
Talk of moving Cuddyer to second is absurd - Blake Street Bulletin » Blake Street Bulletin
June 14, 2012 at 3:54 PM (UTC -6)
[...] « Starting Colvin over Fowler and is the Rockies rotation worst ever? [...]
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June 22, 2012 at 9:59 AM (UTC -6)
[...] Fowler being benched I wrote about it the other day and it continues to agitate more and more: how can Dexter Fowler ride pine when Michael Cuddyer [...]