The Rockies had a disastrous week of interleague play, finishing the week at 0-6 and dropping their interleague record to a miserable 0-9 (all at home). Frustration is mounting and with the season already a lost cause the trade discussions are heating up. At the center of the problem is the starting pitching, which continues to be atrocious, and the quality start numbers are getting uglier and uglier: the Rockies have just 17 quality starts (28% of games) all season compared to the MLB average of 33 quality starts (53% of games). This week, we discuss trade assets, the status of the starting rotation going forward, and look for answers to the Rockies’ interleague struggles.
- Who should the Rockies try to move as the trade season begins?
Brendan: Scutaro and Betancourt. The most important thing for the Rockies is to retain the young talent. The young players are the only interesting thing about this team and trading any of the “core” (Tulo, CarGo, Dex, Rosario, even Pacheco) is a bad idea. The problem for the Rockies is that is about all of their trade assets. Helton is not going to waive his no trade clause to underperform for a contender. Guthrie’s performance and Cuddyer’s contract have made them untradeable. Scutaro has improved his play since taking over at short for Tulo and could be traded to a wannabe contender desperate for a middle infielder, like the Pirates (who start Barmes at SS). Betancourt has not had enough opportunities to remind the league that his low 90’s fastball is a blown save waiting to happen and teams are always looking for bullpen arms. Neither option will yield much in return, but Scutaro’s departure opens up playing time for Nelson and LeMahieu (and maybe even EY2), and Belisle could easily slide into the closer role.
Kevin: First of all, no one on this sad team should be untouchable. That being said, Cuddyer absolutely should be traded. He would make a nice DH or outfielder for a contending team in need of a right-handed bat. His contract might get in the way of a very valuable return, but unloading him and replacing him with a very comparable Tyler Colvin would at least free up money for the team (presumably to pursue some mediocre fly ball pitchers). Also, if the team decides to hold onto the core (CarGo, Tulo, Fowler), this team won’t be ready to compete for a championship for another two years at least, which means that Cuddyer will be about 35-years-old when this team is competitive again. His productive years will have been wasted on the current embarrassment. The team needs to clear up his salary and find a younger, cheaper right fielder – preferably one who can field some.
Ned: The temptation is to blow-up the team and start again. This would be a mistake. CarGo and Tulo are both young, and will form the nucleus of the team for the next ten years. While both would command huge hauls, are we really ready to go back to the rebuilding mode? This club lacks starting pitching, and you can’t trade top position players for top starting pitching. Consequently, you would only get prospects for both Tulo and CarGo. The guys who do have some trade value, and who are expendable, are Fowler, Pacheco, and Rosario. Fowler is the top piece of bait who should be worth several top prospects. Colvin could take over center. Pacheco also clearly has trade value which is rising daily, and Nelson is an ok replacement for him at third. A confused GM might actually confuse Wilin Rosario for an up-and-coming catcher, and give real value for him. If this is the case, the Rockies should trade him in a heartbeat. Rosario’s lack of receiving talent has directly and materially contributed to the pitching problems the Rockies have experienced. The guy must go. While Guthrie would have been a clear candidate for trade, he is now most assuredly viewed as damaged goods—the Rockies couldn’t get a can of corn for him.
2. Is there any reason to be optimistic about the pitching staff?
Brendan: I’m grasping at straws here, but yes. Not for this year, but going forward to 2013 the outlook actually is not as bleak as it currently appears. DLR comes back in 2013 and takes his place at the top of the rotation. Two of the first round three amigos (Pomeranz/White/Friedrich) play to their potential and take the #2 and #3 slots. Either Nicasio OR Chacin gets it together and takes #4. That leaves one spot to fill from the following: the remaining first round amigo/Nicasio/Chacin, an overhyped AA pitcher, a low end free agent (Cole Hamels is not walking through that door), or one of the current crap parade (Guthrie/Francis/Outman/Moscoso/Chatwood/Torres). I realize everything has to break right and I am assuming that there are no injuries, but the rotation is close to being at least below average (not putrid) and that would be a huge step up.
Kevin: Other than being eternally held hostage to the potential of Nicasio, Friedrich, White, Pomeranz, etc etc, there is no reason for optimism. The return of Hernandez will have a minimal affect on the staff. I guess one should be optimistic because it cannot get any worse than this (fingers crossed).
Ned: Not much. The return of Ramon Hernandez, which hopefully will come soon, will give the staff a boost. Rosario’s lack of ability as a receiver hamstrings the already struggling pitchers. Our pitchers are reluctant to put a slider in the dirt with men aboard, knowing the chances of Rosario handling the ball are about 75%. Consequently, the pitches become elevated, leading to the results we have seen. This guy’s receiving inadequacies are a killer for the struggling staff. Since the coaches must see what we see, why is Rosario getting so much playing time? My theory is that Tracy is showcasing his arm, bat, and speed for a trade. Although this season is clearly lost, we should see de la Rosa return in the second half. With a little luck, we may see one or more of the kids develop into reasonable starters. And if we get really lucky, Guthrie will have a successful therapy session with a sports psychologist, and get his head back on his shoulders—the guy is too good to be throwing batting practice pitches to the opposition.
3. The Rockies are 0-9 against the AL this year because _______________.
Brendan: The deeper lineups. Forgive the statistic jargon here, but it sums it up best. In the last 10 games against NL opponents, the Rockies have scored an average of 6.30 ± 4.97 (average ± standard deviation) runs compared to scoring 4.11 ± 2.71 runs against the AL. The averages look different, but the error (in an admittedly small sample size) makes the two statistically equivalent meaning that regardless of opponent the Rockies are scoring at a similar rate. As for runs allowed, it breaks down like this: the Rockies gave up 5.00 ± 2.79 runs vs. the NL and 8.22 ± 2.28 vs. the AL. That is a statistically significant difference showing that the Rockies are giving up more runs to the AL squads than the NL squads. Taken together, the Rockies’ inability to handle the deeper AL lineups will make for a very long road trip with stops in Detroit and Texas. Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, and Josh Hamilton will be fun to watch – just not for Rockies fans.
Kevin: Gee, let me think. Because the Rockies’ staff ERA is 5.42, good for dead last in major league baseball. It’s not easy to win when you consistently give up 7+ runs a game, which the staff has been doing lately. Also, the fielding has made things difficult. Rosario gets a lot of heat for his catching, and he probably deserves it. Twice in the finale against the A’s there were runners on first and second with one out. A jam certainly, but a manageable jam (assuming a good pitcher is on the mound, mind you). Then Rosario conveniently allows a pass ball, and suddenly the “one pitch and we’re out of it” jam turns into a crooked number jam. Little things like this at big moments cost ballgames. That being said, the best way to avoid this type of situation is never let the guys on base in the first place.
Ned: Because you can’t play only the Astros or the Cubs the entire season. It is easy to say that the AL is full of big boppers, but how does that explain the three losses to Oakland whose position players generally hit lighter than Mario Mendoza? Did everyone watch Oakland pitcher Bartolo Colon’s two plate appearances Tuesday night? Both times, he hilariously tried to return to the dugout hoping he would be called out on strikes. Incredibly, Guthrie struggled to put him away both times (although he finally did). The reason the Rockies are 0-9 against the AL this year is because the Rockies, thanks to more than a decade of drafting failures, have no starting pitching. The Rockies must out-slug the opposition in order to win. Over the nine games with AL teams this season, the Rockies have scored an average of 4.1 runs a game, which is good output. Unfortunately, our crack pitching staff gave up an average of 8.2 runs per game over this same stretch. When you give up twice as many runs per game as you score, you will have trouble beating even the Cubs.
Have a different take? Let us know in the comments below.
Got an idea for a future 3U3D discussion? Email us at BlakeStBulletin@gmail.com
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32 comments
Troyf
June 17, 2012 at 5:22 PM (UTC -6)
Trade Rosario? Are you out of your ever loving mind? I do not care if he stays at cather. I think e can move o first base. All I knw is this kid is going to hit 35 to 40 homers when he starts hitting the breaking ball. Now, I understand, he’s had close to 200 at bats as a 23 year old, sp he has no chance to improve on defense or offense based on how quick some people want to judge young players here. But what are you getting for him now? I mean, seriously, what are you getting? It is this kids fault the Rockies either did not give him the coaching to improve this defense or they have not realized he needed a position switch? You want to give up on him now for what, another prospect. I cannot even begin to describe how dumb a move that would be.
Beyond that, is he realy the problem with the staff? From May 1 to May 23, the Rockies played 22 games. He started 10 games and the staff gave up 68 runs. Rosari started 12 games and the Rockies gave up 56 runs. They went 2-8 in the starts by Hernandez and 3-8 in the starts by Rosario. They came close to playing evry other day for most of that time. I guess what I am saying is that if you really think Hernandez is going to save or even help with the staff,you are likely having the wrong dream.
Sorry for the rant, but that is the worst suggestion I have heard in a long time. I think Cuddyer at second would be better than taking a potential middle of the lineup 23 year old and shipping him off so a 36 year old has been can catch more often. Ugh. . .
Seth
June 17, 2012 at 10:16 PM (UTC -6)
I agree, there is no way they should trade Rosario. I think he gets at least two more years of showing whether he can really catch consistently with good results before they should think about getting rid of him and even after two years if he cant catch I wouldnt get rid of him. The guy is going to be an offensive force for the catching position like we have never seen before, I am not so sure on 35-40 home runs but definitrely 25. Some things that people forget is he has an exceptional arm behind the plate and has shown it off plenty of times. He can end a running game quickly. If he doesnt pan out to be a catcher in two years his best option would be either 3rd base or 1st. He has shown the athleticism and the arm strength. I think he is the most interesting Rockie to see how he develops over the next few years. And plus if he doesnt pan out to be anything special, we apparently have two exciting catchers in the minors tearing it up that could move up the ranks very quickly. So we will see what happens here but I definitely do not think trading Rosario will help us or our lousy pitchers.
I wish we could trade Cuddyer so that it could open up some space for Colvin and some of our other outfielders in the minors (like Wheeler, Blackmon, Parker), but his damn contract is going to be nearly impossible to move thanks to Odowd. Same with Scutaro, I would love to see Lemahiue get a solid shot at 2nd base and even later on bring up Rutledge from AA as he has been touted as our 2nd baseman of the future by many. And well we all know Guthrie is just a lost cause and really the only option is designating him for assignment and getting nothing but cash and if we are lucky a flaming sack of dog s*** in return. I think our only bet for getting something valuable in return is from trading Betancourt, teams are always looking for a solid late reliever whether they use him as a closer or set-up man. He has shown he can be successful and since there have been so many injuries to closers and set-up men this year one team either a contender or pretender will panic and eventually over pay for a guy like him since the market is limited and at a premium. Should be an interesting and possibly crazy trade season for the Rockies.
Brendan Giles
June 18, 2012 at 10:30 AM (UTC -6)
Trading Rosario is definitely a bad idea. Every young hitter struggles with the breaking stuff in the majors and Rosario did not even get a chance to learn in AAA. He will get it figured out and will be a great middle of the order bat.
However, I tend to agree with Ned that Rosario’s skills behind the plate do cause pitchers to lose confidence in burying a pitch with runners on (despite Travis’ claims to the contrary). That being said, how does that have any influence on walking the lead off man? Can he improve behind the plate? Absolutely, but Rosario is not the problem.
TroyF
June 17, 2012 at 6:52 PM (UTC -6)
above it said He started 10 games, that should have read Hernandez started ten games.
Ned Giles
June 18, 2012 at 11:20 AM (UTC -6)
Rosario is the worst receiver I have ever seen in a Rockies uniform. But I understand that fans tend to becone blinded by his offensive. For example, he has a smoking hot .230 average. What other regularly startiing position player on the team start has a higher average? The answer: Every One. And fans tend to become blinded by his walk to strike-out ratio this year of 7 walks (one of which was intentional) to 40 strike-outs. But wait—let’s look at his major league career ratio of 9 walks to 60 strike-outs. HOF stuff there. OK–maybe I am not looking at the right things. Let’s see, his OBP is .257. Think that is going to get him to the ASG? But I understand–I am obviously missing his tremendous potential. Didn’t Ian Stewart have great potential? This world, and not just baseball, is full of people who have great potential. Most of them are flipping burgers or parking cars. It is the people who constantly push themselves to realize their potential who achieve success–the rest just talk about what they are going to do some day. I do honestly believe that Rosario has great potential. But to achieve success, he needs to recognize breaking balls and learn how to hit them, and he needs to become a receiver who holds pitches and blocks the balls in the dirt. And yes, I do believe there is a GM or two out there who would be willing to part with some strong prospects next month to get Rosario’s arm and pop time, and potential.
JD
June 18, 2012 at 12:39 PM (UTC -6)
I don’t think we can call Rosario a bust yet, but I do question whether he should work out his issues at Coors or in AAA once Hernandez is healthy. He’s a dreadful backstop and terrible at hitting off-speed stuff, which is why his average is bad and he strikes out once every 3 ABs. The main argument for sending him down is to help the pitchers with the big club by letting them play with a serviceable catcher. On the other hand, he may not learn to hit the breaking ball much better against AAA pitching.
As for Cuddyer, his contract may make him immovable, but we should try. He’ll be too old to contribute to any winning team in our future, and we want Colvin to play. The other option is to move Cuddyer to 1B and sit Helton, but when Arenado arrives we may want Pacheco at 1B, so there’s still no spot for Cuddyer.
Logan Burdine
June 18, 2012 at 12:39 PM (UTC -6)
I’m with Ned. We are overrating this kid. If they could get a haul in return for him, do it. I’m not saying give up on him, but if he’s a good trade chip, they need to do it. There are a lot of holes to fill and an overrated catching prospect might get the job done.
Seth
June 18, 2012 at 2:38 PM (UTC -6)
The Rockies will not get any special haul in a trade for Rosario simply for the fact that teams see the same flaws we see in the bad catching and in-ability to hit a breaking ball. His value as trade bait is not as high as his value of continuing to play. Teams are not going to trade two top prospects let alone one top prospect for a project. The sensible move is to continue playing him and either watch him grow or watch him be a big bust with huge power potential. Yeah he doesnt necessarily have the best statistics overall. But just like Pomeranz or White or Friedrich you hold a standard that these young starters deserve and need time to grow and improve, its the same with Rosario, he needs the same amount of time in order to fully evaluate him as a player. The pitching in no way is his fault, yes it does contribute to the pitchers lack of trust in their pitches at times but 90% of the problems with our pitching staff is with the pitchers themselves and not the guys they are throwing to. Now I am not going to sit here and preach crap patience like Tracy and tell you all its a process, but at least some patience is necessary when dealing with guys as young as him and giving him a fair and legitimate shot at improving. When you go and make quick rash decisions and trade a young talented guy after 3 months in the big leagues, it is not a smart and good baseball move. There has to be some reason why he has been rated as one of the top catching prospects in the minors the past two years. Yes the word “prospects” means nothing for Rockies fans as we have seem way too many flame out once they reach the big leagues of even before that but truly think Rosario is different and should be given a fair shot at catcher. I think he has the tools to be very productive, he just has to realize it and do something about it to reach his potential.
Logan Burdine
June 18, 2012 at 2:44 PM (UTC -6)
If he’s truly a top catching prospect — I’m still skeptical after last year — then he should be able to pull in a huge haul. If he can’t, I think that speaks volumes. They need better defense, not a catcher with an OBP of .280 and an inability to receive pitches. To be honest, I’ve been pretty underwhelmed by him.
Logan Burdine
June 18, 2012 at 2:46 PM (UTC -6)
To clarify, I don’t necessarily think you’re wrong. They put their faith in him, so they shouldn’t just give up on him. But, if the right deal came along, I’d jump all over it.
Brandon Cloud
June 18, 2012 at 2:45 PM (UTC -6)
I am in the camp of not trading the 23 year old top prospect catcher when you are (re)building. He is the exact type of piece the Rockies would try to pick up in a trade if they did not already have him. He is 23, he has only caught 284 games in the minors so I believe it would be foolish to let frustration from 2012 lead one to trading Rosario. Have that opinion in one year, not yet though.
Logan Burdine
June 18, 2012 at 2:51 PM (UTC -6)
I guess this is what really drives me crazy about the Rosario thing. He did only catch 284 games in the minors, and his receiving skills clearly aren’t up to par. Plus, he had a .284 OBP last year in Tulsa. Yet, the Rox decided he was ready and it was time to dump a catcher with a .370 OBP because of it. It just doesn’t make sense, and you have to at least be a little concerned that this year will be a set back for him. I heard a lot of chatter about him being bored last year. To me, that’s unacceptable.
TroyF
June 19, 2012 at 1:10 AM (UTC -6)
The Rockies rushed him. No doubt about it. Who knows about him being bored. He had a successful stint the year before. My guess is he was working on defense more than anything and that impacted his swing. I don’t hold the Rockies blameless here. He should have started the year at AAA. They also should have been experimenting with other positions. He clearly can play in other places besides catcher and the Rockies should explore those moves if his catching doesn’t get better.
As for Iannetta, it’s Tracy. Telling Jim that there is a new stat called OPS and that is a better indicator of a players worth than straight batting average is like trying to teaching your grandparents how Twitter works. It’s all just mumbo jumbo to him. I loved Chris too. Sigh. . .
Pete
June 18, 2012 at 6:11 PM (UTC -6)
IF we had the right general manager to swing a trade, and IF we had the right field manager to utilize any new players correctly, THEN I would suggest we consider absolutely everyone in the organization for trade potential EXCEPT Tulo and Cargo. You can’t get EQUAL value for them. After last year and the off-season, I no longer believe O’Dowd is capable of making a trade that helps this team. But if he was, then he should consider every single posssible trade and combination of trades to help the Rockies. Oh, and if you need an older player that wants to retire with the Rox and doesn’t want to waive a no-trade clause? You stick him on the bench for two weeks and then make it clear you are “showcasing” him when he does play, he’ll get the message real quick.
Wow! A month ago I didn’t think our pitching could get worse, then it did. Nothing you can do now, because Tracy has made it clear he wants to muddle through with the crap we have on the mound. Man, did I love the job Jeff Francis did in 2007, but he has no business being in a rotation for the Rox. Hopefully we will begin teaching some pitching down in the minors so when prospects and future draftees come up in later years they will be able to throw strikes. It can be done.
I’m not going to comment on inter-league because frankly I don’t care. I do care that Clemens, along with the Braun overturn and the Bonds decision means we are still in the Steriod Era. I suggest, really, really, really suggest, that Helton go back on the ‘roids. If he does that, has a few late career great years hitting with power and driving in runs, he can help the team and maybe get his HOF that he wants. Heck, why stop there……ALL the ROX should be ‘roiding up to compete with everyone else. The numbers don’t make sense anyway, why should some do it and not others? Doesn’t everyone want to be the next Pujols or Batista? Order some team HGH tomorrow and get to it.
TroyF
June 19, 2012 at 1:01 AM (UTC -6)
Ned,
I’m so thrilled you want to judge Rosario after a whopping 189 major league at bats. Cargo had an exceptional first 375 at bats in the bigs. Troy was also incredible his first 200 big league at bats coming from AA. As you love to throw out his horrible numbers, lets keep this in mind, shall we:
Players under 25 years of age in the national league with 125 at bats or more. . . Rosario ranks 12th in OPS. The names ahead of him? McCutcheon, Harper, Bruce, Stanton, Goldschmidt, Sandoval, Altuve, Posey, Belt, Nieuenhes, Heyward and Castro. How many of those guys have fewer at bats than Rosario? 1. Bryce Harper.
Some more numbers: Rosario’s career BABIP is .250. That suggests some unluckiness in addition to him needing to hit the off speed stuff better. Against lefties, Rosario has a .295 batting average and a .727 slugging percentage. Now, if you are still with me, here is where it gets REALLY interesting. At Coors, Wilin hits .195 with a .641 OPS. Away from home he hits .283 with a .575 OPS.
So lets analyze this for a second. At WORST the Rockies have a massive power source against lefties if he doesn’t improve a bit. The likelihood is he’s going to improve against both RHP and at home quite a bit. But again, let’s forget that. How many 23 year olds with power are there in the game? And his athleticism indicates he should be fine with a position switch. (I hope you didn’t miss his play at third base this year) He has a rocket arm, can run pretty well and can move.
One final thing. If you are going to talk about his horrific defense and his horrible catching of the ball, how do you explain this: The Rockies have had 24 games this year where the staff has given up 4 or less runs in a game. (yes, that’s unbelievably sad, but back to the point) Rosario has caught 17 of those 24 games. Obviously, Hernandez has been a soothing sole behind the plate and the Rockies pitchers just respond wonderfully to him.
But yeah, lets give up on the kid already. With 4 33+ year old guys in the lineup already, we MUST give up on any 23 year old who shows some flashes of talent, good call.
BG
June 19, 2012 at 8:24 AM (UTC -6)
Does anyone know the Rockies’ ERA when Rosario is catching vs. the ERA with Hernandez? I can’t help but wonder how much of the awful pitching is due to Rosario behind the plate.
Brendan Giles
June 19, 2012 at 9:12 AM (UTC -6)
great question. i had to look it up, but there is a stat (CERA) for just that. here is how it breaks down (with a little extra thrown in for good measure):
Hernandez: 5.80 CERA and .267 CS% (caught stealing)
Rosario: 4.75 CERA and .300 CS%
if that isn’t enough, here is the batting head to head:
Hernandez: .215/.260/.398 (OPS of .658)
Rosario: .230/.269/.758 (OPS of .758)
Strictly by the numbers, Rosario has been a superior player to Hernandez this year in every single category – offensively and defensively. I know that at times Rosario’s work behind the plate doean’t pass the “eye test,” but scapegoating him for the failures of a young staff is not supported by the data.
Logan Burdine
June 19, 2012 at 9:41 AM (UTC -6)
This team has much bigger problems than Rosario and this staff is definitely not his fault. My entire problem with him is that they handed him the job out of AA. Is it ever a good idea to just hand someone a job without them earning it?
Unfortunately, they dumped their best catcher this offseason for a bag of garbage. He’s here. That’s the way it is, but it’s hard for me not to think about how badly they butchered this thing.
Brendan Giles
June 19, 2012 at 10:08 AM (UTC -6)
agreed. Iannetta was always undervalued and Rosario just was not ready, which was pretty evident by his September audition. The Rockies likely thought that they could groom Rosario while Hernandez handled the bulk of the catching responsibilities, but the facts that Hernandez continues his decline in performance and cannot get back on the field is not a surprise to anyone – except the front office. once again the problems start at the top and leave us complaining about the mess at the bottom.
TroyF
June 19, 2012 at 6:11 PM (UTC -6)
FWIW, I don’t think he was handed the job. I think the Rockies were actually hoping to send him to AAA. The plan was a lot of Hernandez and then Pacheco or others behind the plate backing up. When Rosario blistered the ball all spring, plans changed. And while he hasn’t tore the cover off the ball, he still has an above average OPS and has shown serious power to all fields.
I don’t really think he was handed anything.
TroyF
June 19, 2012 at 6:06 PM (UTC -6)
Hey, it’s all good. Now we are going to pitch the starters 75 pitches a night. . . STRICT PITCH COUNT. Once they hit 75, if it’s the 2nd or 4th or 6th innings, they get removed and we call the bullpen. There we have waiting in long relief, wait for it, wait for it, wait for it. . . Guthrie and Mocosso!!!!!!!
This is terrific. The bullpen will now pitch a minimum of 5 innings a night. As we’ll be going with a 12 man staff and a 4 man rotation, that means every bullpen guy will have to throw every two days. (keep in mind we are playing 20 straight games until the break)
The rotation is now Outman, White, Friedrich and Francis. What’s especially great about this is that if one of the kids is having a good game and getting his confidence up, we’ll make sure we get him out of there before that happens. What a terrific idea Jim, I wonder why nobody else in the history of the game has not thought of this. Oh. . . because it’s idiotic, that’s why. Good job Rocks, good job. Make yourselves the joke of the MLB. You rock.
Seth
June 19, 2012 at 9:00 PM (UTC -6)
I become baffled more and more by Tracy and Odowd as each day passes. Its really unbelievable. Here is an idea, maybe to change things up we should…..Fire our dumb manager and general manager, pssssh yeah like the monforts are going to make someone accountable for this mess. Something has got to happen soon because this is ridiculous, there is a reason why a four man rotation has not been around since the 60′s or 70′s, its because it doesn’t work, but yet the Rockies are going to take a shot at it with a bunch of young kids. I never thought it would get this bad….ugh…..
Brendan Giles
June 20, 2012 at 7:53 AM (UTC -6)
For all the concern over this new strategy, I am pretty sure things won’t get worse. To me, this stinks of O’Dowd and Tracy going all in and trying anything to see if they can find some success without actually firing anybody. why fire apodaca when you can just completely change your approach and then blame the players for failing at a rigged game?
That being said, I actually like the idea (again because it is not like the traditional method is working) and am interested to see how it plays out. The goal is to get through 7 innings with two pitchers on any given night and it’s not like pulling starters early is a new problem the bullpen is going to have to deal with. As you pointed out, the real challenge of this strategy is what happens when the starter is having a very good start (unrealistic, i know, but it could happen, right?). Does Tracy have the courage to pull a guy after 5 innings if he has only given up two hits and no runs? it will be up to the starters to apply the pressure to the strategy, but in the meantime i am interested to see if it works and at the very least it is something new to watch for amid the mounting losses.
TroyF
June 20, 2012 at 1:38 PM (UTC -6)
Brendan,
The problem with this strategy is multi fold:
1) By going down this ridiculous path, all of the starters have to change thier routines. That’s fine for Jeff Francis. But do you really want Alex White and Christian Friedrich to change? Isn’t the goal to see if they can figure things out? Or do you think it’s a good idea to yank them after 5 strong innings? (If this is their plan, Tracy MUST execute it. It’s not about balls, if the pitcher is throwing again in three days, he cannot be extended under any circumstance)
2) The bullpen is already overworked, we all get that. But do you realize the pressure this is going to put on the bullpen? White and Friedrich are averaging a little under 6 innings a start and throwing over 90 pitches to get there. This is taking at least 1 inning off of each of their starts. Minimum. The long relievers are the failed starters.I’d bet money these guys aren’t getting you through 7 most nights. We got through 6 last night and that was with Outman having some relatively easy innings against a horrific hitting team. It took him 37 pitches to get through the Phillies lineup the first time. That got us through 2 2/3, but it was also flukish. He had 0 walks and only allowed one hit. Cue the next two hitters and the next two innings which would finish him off.
3) This is a little league move. It screams to everyone that you have simply given up. That’s fine on its face, but no big league player wants to play under conditions like this. Whatever political capital he had in that clubhouse is now gone. The first time Friedrich goes 5 without allowing a run and gets pulled so Guthrie can come in and get shelled will be a good litmus test. My guess is someone is going to go off. The only question is who. (by the way, that’s what I see happening here)
4) What’s next? Pomeranz fired six innings of no hit ball a couple of nights ago. Nicasio is nearing a rehab assignment. You know Francis is safe and the likliehood is we get another veteran arm like Moyer or Guthrie to “lead” the staff. So which two prospects does it make sense to stop starting?
I’m sorry, I’m not concerned about this strategy, I find it laughable. I just hope it fails so miserably Monfort doesn’t have a choice but to clean house.
Brendan Giles
June 21, 2012 at 9:40 AM (UTC -6)
I’m going to play devil’s advocate here, so stay with me…
1) Between start routines are important, but they can always be altered. These guys, regardless of big league experience, have been playing this game their entire lives and should be trusted to be ready to pitch. By having them pitch on shorter rest (with less expected when they do take their turn), they will get more starts which should give them MORE chances to figure it out. It is up to the guys like White and Friedrich to go out there and dominate for 5 innings on a consistent basis to force management to reconsider the approach. There is no evidence that anyone on the current staff can consistently produce 5+ strong innings regardless of pitch count.
2) bullpen pressure won’t be much worse than it already was because of more clearly defined roles. Roenicke, Moscoso and Guthrie are set to go every couple of days and know that when they enter the game, they will get two or three innings. Even getting through 6 innings night in and night out with 7 different guys (counting the starters and long relievers) leaves 5 arms for three innings, which is manageable. Short outings are the norm for the Rockies (and not just this year) so this should be buisiness as usual for the ‘pen.
3) The 25-42 thing has more to do with Tracy’s political capital than a desperation strategy change. There has not been fire or urgency in the any of the players since April so it is not as if Tracy is going to suddenly lose the clubhouse. A starter going 5 innings with no runs? Let’s cross that bridge when we get there.
4) There will be plenty of chances for all of the young players. The staff has been in turmoil all season with 10 different guys getting a chance to start. I’m not holding my breath for Nicasio’s return (or Chacin for that matter) and I would definitely like to see Pomeranz called back. Outman would be my choice to leave for Pomeranz, but it is just a matter of time until someone goes down (regardless of rotation strategy).
This should be win-win for Rockies fans. Either it works or it fails miserably with no inbetween. If successful, then at least the games will be watchable. If it is a complete disaster, then it should seal the fate of the management who installed the system. Either outcome will yield positive results which makes it a good experiment.
TroyF
June 19, 2012 at 11:48 PM (UTC -6)
Oh, cmon Seth, drink some Kool Aid. This is a terrific idea. I mean, 75 pitches every fourth day. We get Guthrie as a long reliever. I mean, the comic relief alone is going to be great. I think my favorite part is going to be when one of the kids is actually pitching well and gets forced to come out of the game for Mocosco or Guthrie. They’ll get shelled and we’ll lose the game by 12 runs. If you think the bullpen is overused now, wait until you see it going 5+ innings a night.
The best thing about this is it has zero chance of working. It’s going to be an unmitigated disaster (yes, worse than what we are already dealing with) This may actually be the one thing that finally causes Monfort to push the button. I started laughing the second I heard it and every time I see it, I laugh more. I just wonder whose idea this plan was. Was it abbra cadabra? Tracy? O’Dowd? All three of them in the room at the same time so their collective IQ could match a raquetball.
On the positive side, I really want to watch this train wreck now. I just wonder if Tulo will finally get pissed off and go to Monfort and tell him he wants some changes to this clown car organization.
SapperDrew
June 20, 2012 at 1:06 AM (UTC -6)
“Outman didn’t do a bad job,” Rockies manager Jim Tracy said. “He was efficient in the strike zone. He just made a mistake with two outs.”
Holy sh!t when is this fricking manager going to grow a pair and start showing a little fire in the clubhouse. This has got to be the lamest most over-used quote in JT’s arsenal. JT where the hell have you been all YEAR, this quote is getting old, your laid back demeanor has been old, your constant fluctuating lineup has all the fans ticked off and your not holding players accountable for their lack of production has failed. Although I might not be the biggest Dex Fan, you sure seem to hold him to a higher standard than anyone else on the team and he is NOT the issue.
Dear God, when will this management team be blown the hell up????
Steve
June 20, 2012 at 4:25 PM (UTC -6)
This 75 pitches thing is absurd!!! Unbelievable???
The Colorado Rockies, “The Laughing Stock of Major League Baseball!”
I find myself hoping the Rockies keep losing so the Moronforts will be forced to “Clean House” with the management team. Unbelievable, how big of a mess the Rockies are???
TroyF
June 20, 2012 at 6:41 PM (UTC -6)
So the guy who has the 3rd best OPS on the roster and the second best OBP on the roster gets to sit again. It’s important to make sure Todd Helton hits. He’s a freakin HALL OF FAMER. Forget that .237 batting average. It’s critical to give him more at bats to break out of his funk.
You guys need to have a regular “From the mind of Jim Tracy” column on the blog. Maybe an internet MEME with a confused puppy with a Tracy jersey on. “Why do these stupid fans keep talking about OPS? What does an oil pressure switch have to do with baseball?”
TroyF
June 20, 2012 at 8:33 PM (UTC -6)
Not to worry everyone, I’m sure Scutaro (for his defense, 0-5 and 328 OBP) and Helton (for his footwork and his .230 average) are going to be held accountable for this loss.
Nah, he’ll find a way to blame Dexter Fowler for the loss. No doubt in my mind. After all, I’m sure Dexter did something wrong.
As far as the game itself goes, Rosario had a solid game. I love seeing him hit the ball the opposite way with power. Kudos to Guthrie. He pitched well and I have to give him his props.
Brendan Giles
June 21, 2012 at 9:47 AM (UTC -6)
Obviously, it was Dex’s fault. He drove in the go ahead run that brought Betancourt into the game! Without Dex, the Rockies don’t have a late lead and wouldn’t have been in the bases loaded jam!
I liked Rosario missing the foul tip (?) that then crushed the home plate ump’s face. Even better was the 2B ump proceeding to lecture Rosario about catching the ball. Followed by Tracy waking up and finally making it out there to see what the fuss was all about.
(BTW, I don’t recall seeing a loss like that before outside of little league. The incompetence would be stunning if it wasn’t so regular)
Dan
June 21, 2012 at 11:53 AM (UTC -6)
On the bright side, over the last 243 games (exactly a seaon and a half) the Rox are 99-144. 45 games under .500!! Just imagine how bad they would be if they didn’t have the best GM in baseball.