On June 19th Jim Tracy declared that the Rockies starting pitchers would only throw 75 pitches per start. At the time the Rockies had by far the worst ERA among starting pitchers in baseball so something had to be done…many were not sure this was what needed to be done. I personally think the Rockies have a stable full of awful starters, for various reasons, so 75 pitches, 100 pitches or 120 pitches; they are going to be terrible.
I went back and looked at each start since June 19th and looked at innings pitched, number of pitches thrown per start, number of earned runs allowed and if the pitcher records a win, loss, no decision and if the start was a quality start (six innings pitched or more in which the starter allowed three or fewer earn runs). Here are some things I found:
- The Rockies have used eight different starting pitchers over their past 32 games played since June 19th.
- Only once has a pitcher recorded an out in the seventh inning and that was Drew Pomeranz on July 6th against the Washington Nationals, in Washington.
- The most pitches thrown in any outing was last night by Jeff Francis. Francis threw 97 pitches last night and the previous high during this stretch was way back in June when Jim Tracy let Josh Outman attempt to compete the fifth inning so he could qualify for a “W” but Outman flamed out and only pitched 4 2/3 innings and thew 92 pitches.
- During this stretch of 32 games Rockies starting pitchers have averaged 77 pitches per start.
- Edwar Cabrera thew the fewest pitches. Cabrera threw 65 pitches in that brutal outing in which he only lasted 2 1/3 innings against the Washington Nationals on June 27th at Coors Field.
- During this stretch Rockies pitchers have only pitched at least five full innings (the minimum for a pitcher to qualify for a win if his team has the lead) 17 times, or roughly 53% of games started.
- During this stretch the Rockies have only accumulated seven quality starts or had a quality start about 22% of the time.
- Finally, the Rockies starters have an ERA of 6.08 during the past 32 games. Currently the Rockies starting staff has an ERA of 6.22 which is a half run worse than the Minnesota Twins or 1.66 runs worse than the next closest National League team, the Houston Astros.
Nothing too impressive and not a lot of improvement…
If you had to pick one pitcher from the Rockies staff who seemingly has excelled with this new pitch limit; who would that be? My pick would be Francis. How do the numbers change if his starts are removed?
- This reduces the number of starts to 24 from 32.
- The starters ERA rises from 6.08 to 7.13 without Francis.
- The number of pitches stays exactly the same at 77 and the quality start percentage only drops slightly from 22% with Francis to 21% without.
- BUT – Francis does have five starts in which he has thrown five innings with three or fewer runs allowed since the start of this pitch count limit. Francis only has one start since June 19th in which he allowed more than three earned runs. During this stretch his ERA is 3.50 and I am willing to bet that if his leash was lengthened it would be lower. In many of his outings he seemingly was cruising along, pitching well, and yanked after five innings because he threw 78 pitches.
- There were four starts in which Francis was pulled after five innings in which he had allowed two runs or less and thrown fewer than 80 pitches (one such outing saw him only throw 66 pitches!).
How does this compare to other teams?
- The Rockies starters have thrown 486 innings this year and that is the fewest in baseball. Kansas City clocks in with 501 1/3 for second fewest and Philadelphia’s starters lead the league with 640 innings pitched.
- The Rockies have 24 quality starts as a team in 2012 and that is 10 fewer than KC. Washington leads the league with 65 quality starts.
- Rockies starters have averaged just barely over five innings per start in 2012 with KC’s starters averaging 5.2 innings per start (not 5 2/3, but 5.2). The teams right in the middle of the pack, Arizona and San Diego, get six innings per start while the Phillies are getting nearly 6.5 innings per start from their staff.
It is bad anyway you slice it. There isn’t any apparent metric that shows the team is doing any better with the new limit. I think it is hurting them because there are times (mainly when Francis is on the mound) that pulling the starter after so few pitches hurts the team.
What is the solution? I would start with better player development, myself. I don’t think any pitcher in their right mind would sign with the Rockies right now. It would have to be a case like Jeff Francis where he was available as a free agent and no other team wanted him. A last chance effort to resurrect a career.
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10 comments
JD
July 26, 2012 at 12:17 PM (UTC -6)
The irony in my hatred of the huge money we threw at Cuddyer is that we have no other use for the money since no pitcher would sign here. Actually, acquiring Hanley Ramirez would have been nice (in an alternate universe where we’re not a total disaster because O’Dowd was fired in 2011). That assumes a change of scenery helps him.
Imagine this lineup:
CF Fowler
1B Pacheco, Helton, Arenado eventually, whatever
LF Gonzalez
SS Tulowitzki
3B Ramirez
RF Colvin
C Rosario
2B Rutledge
Pitcher
On a somewhat related note, does everyone realize that if we didn’t sign Cuddyer, we could be talking about Rosario at 1B? THAT’S how you get his bat in the lineup, and I doubt his D at first could be worse than Cuddyer’s.
CodenameDuchess
July 26, 2012 at 3:33 PM (UTC -6)
So far the 2nd half of this season has been playing out almost entirely as I hoped (June hopes not April hopes). Get the young kids playing and figure out what we have! The Rockies need to finish this season knowing what they have heading in the spring training next year.
What I’d like to see the rest of the way…
Rosario and Pacheco playing everyday. Give Rosario 4-5 games behind the dish each week and 1-2 at 3rd base. Pacheco gets the inverse. Perhaps one of the gentlemen here can tell me about Pacheco’s skills at catcher because I honestly don’t know. Is he at best an emergency #3 catcher or could he be serviceable? I ask this because I think his bat profiles better at catcher than it does at 3rd or 1st base. Rosario’s on the other hand profiles exactly like a power hitting corner infielder.
If we head into spring training with this lineup I’ll be excited….
2 – Pacheco
3 – Rosario
4 – Rutledge
5 – Arenado
6 – Tulo
7 – Cargo
8 – Fowler
9 – Colvin
Pair that with a pitching staff consisting of some combination of..
Pomeranz
Friedrich
Chacin
DLR
Nicasio
White
Francis (If he keeps going the way he’s going he deserves it)
That is a youth movement that I would be excited about. Sure they’ll take some lumps but that is an athletic team with pop. Tulo/Cargo/Rosario/Colvin could all go for 30+ HRs add in another 10-20 for Dex (still not sold on the power but I’m getting there) and 10-15 for both Arenado and Pacheco. That is a pretty exciting lineup.
All we need to get there is to trade Cuddyer and Scutaro for prospects, preferably pitching, and let Helton know that his days as a starter are over.
Seth
July 26, 2012 at 4:06 PM (UTC -6)
I think you have put together a pretty good lineup, but I would still switch Rosario and Pacheco and have Rosario catching and Pacheco at 1st. Rosario has a FAR better arm than Pacheco and that could pay some serious dividends behind the plate. I think Pacheco and Rosario are about equal in terms of athleticism so in terms of blocking a pitch in the dirt they are about equal. I think Rosario still needs ample time at catcher because he is so raw, and I think he could be very good if he gets it all together. And I think they are about equal in terms of calling a game and their relationships with the pitchers, so I would play Rosario behind the plate still just for the fact that he has a better arm and also has had a little more time there and he has more potential there. I agree Cuddyer and Scutaro need to go, I think Scutaro will get moved this weekend but unfortunately I think Cuddyer stays because of his contract. Fowler has definitely come into his own the past year and a half and could end up being one of the better center fielders in the game all around, and I think Colvin has found a nice home and place in this team. Really, my only questions for this team is how the pitching continues to develop, and that is a big question.
CodenameDuchess
July 27, 2012 at 1:01 PM (UTC -6)
From a toolkit stand point I agree Rosario would be a better option at catcher than Pacheco. That said catching is hard on the body and I’d rather have Rosario’s power in the lineup everyday. Basically what I’m saying is that I think Rosario could be the long term solution at 1st base. If Pacheco can’t handle catching or there is a better option than go get someone else.
JD
July 26, 2012 at 4:43 PM (UTC -6)
I’m not sold on Pacheco, who’s a below-average defender at any position and has a below-league average OPS despite a probably-unsustainable batting average. His power is terrible, and his on base skills are only average given the low walk rate. I think there’s a reason scouts have never said much about him – his ceiling is in Jonathan Herrera-land.
However, we could find another catcher this offseason. Replacing one position isn’t a big deal, especially if we freed up salary. As we all agree, we won’t get pitchers to sign here. We might as well help ourselves by finding a superb defensive catcher in free agency. But not Hernandez – he’s done.
Dan
July 26, 2012 at 8:45 PM (UTC -6)
Any way you cut it, the pitching staff stinks. The pitchers that the Rox have let go over the past two seasons (except for Jamie Moyer which was an embarrassment) are better than the ones now on the staff. This is not a case of young pitchers who need more time to develop. With a couple of exceptions, these guys just don’t have it. Time to get a new GM who can evaluate pitching and start over again.
Dennis
July 27, 2012 at 9:26 AM (UTC -6)
I agree with JD that the jury is still out on Pacheco. I don’t see a need for a corner infielder ( with less than average defensive skills) who has no power and doesn’t walk very much. I would just as soon go with Chris Nelson at third. As a side note, does it look to anyone as if Cargo is half-steppin’ it lateley, both offensively and defensively? Is he maybe too fatigued? Is his spirit broken? And does anyone think Jeff Francis will make it to the trade deadline? Just thinkin’ out loud.
Brendan Giles
July 27, 2012 at 3:09 PM (UTC -6)
Totally agree on CarGo. He has always been very casual in his approach, but he hasn’t looked real into the games lately. Hopefully the days off will help (if it is fatigue), but I fear that he has just checked out mentally. Despite the money he makes, I still have a hard time blaming him: it is hard for me to remain interested and all I have to do is sit on the couch. If you remember, we saw this a lot with Larry Walker where by the time August (and the inevitable last/next to last place finish) came around, he was disinterested and usualy ended up on the DL. Could be headed for the same fate with CarGo…
Rico Rodriquez
July 28, 2012 at 7:25 AM (UTC -6)
The idea that Jordan Pachecho could be a starting catcher at any level, let alone in the major leagues, is laughable, and further proof to me that, no matter how much people gnash their teeth of O’Dowd, they are clearly even more stupid than he could ever be.
Hanley Ramirez is a highly overpaid has-been. Do you imagine Miami got rid of him because he was so insanely talented that they just couldn’t bear to hold him back anymore? No, it’s because he makes another 40 million, and is fat, lazy and falling off a cliff. The dolts here and elsewhere continually weep over Cuddyer as though he has no value. He does, but he was meant to be a complementary piece, not a cleanup hitter.
I’m curious how the writers on this blog got their jobs? Is it because you told somebody that you read a couple years of Baseball Prospectus, so you were one of those ‘stathead geniuses’? In truth, much of what is written here is as short-sighted, ignorant and reactionary as national disgraces like Woody Paige or Mark Kizla.
JD
July 28, 2012 at 5:14 PM (UTC -6)
I brought up Hanley simply because of the total dearth of even mediocre talent at 2B or 3B that’s been available over the last few years. Hanley’s the only guy with potential that’s there to be had, and his price wasn’t prospects – it was eating cash. Cash that we’d have available if we hadn’t signed Cuddyer, because we can’t buy pitching (which was what the article we’re commenting under was about).
I agree he’s got problems and won’t be surprised if he continues his Vernon Wells impersonation. But it would have been better than signing Cuddyer. Cuddyer is a complimentary piece for the price of a cleanup hitter, and he plays positions where we have younger, better options.