This week, the Rockies traveled to San Diego and Arizona and managed to win a game at each stop, going 2-4. The end of July brings the trade deadline and MLB has seen several big moves already with Hanley Ramirez joining the Dodgers, Ichiro going to the Yankees, and Cole Hamels inking a $140 million extension with the Phillies. The Rockies are clearly sellers and have already moved the disappointing Jeremy Guthrie with more trades surely on the way. This week, we discuss a few of the less obvious trade targets and if they should stay or go.
True or false: the Rockies should trade Matt Belisle.
Brendan:False. Belisle is worth more to the Rockies than what he would bring back in a trade. For a historically terrible pitching staff, Belisle has put up outstanding numbers: 2.25 ERA (207 ERA+), 1.212 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 2.5 WAR (!). With a stat line like that, it is no wonder that teams have been inquiring about his availability. He has been the most consistent guy out of the bullpen for the Rockies and would be first in line to take over for Betancourt should he be traded. Furthermore, he is only 32 years old and is under contract through next season with an option for 2014. Belisle has been the best reliever for the Rockies all year, and is an essential ingredient to the rare Rockies win that cannot be easily replaced.
Kevin: They should trade him. His stock is about as high as it has ever been, and the Rockies need to capitalize on that. The only thing keeping his value from being higher is that, despite being the best pitcher in the bullpen, he doesn’t close games. Either way, late-game relievers are traditionally overvalued at the trade deadline, and the Rockies should try to take advantage of the and pick up a nice piece or two in exchange.
Ned:False. The bullpen has been outstanding this year. In fact, it is the only thing that will keep this team from smashing the 1962 Mets 120 game loss record. Matt Belisle and John Roenicke have been the two workhorses of the bullpen this season, especially with the planned heavy use of the pen resulting from the four man rotation program. Bullpen pitchers, other than “shut-down” closers, rarely have much trade value. Matt Belisle might be an exception to this general rule, but he probably wouldn’t command equivalent or greater value than what he delivers to the team. With the tenuous state of the team’s overall pitching, the GM should not trade the anchor of an exceptional ‘pen in exchange for prospects. But wait, isn’t this the same genius who traded our all-star pitcher, Ubaldo Jimenez, for four prospects last year? How has that worked out, Mr. O’Dowd? Am I the only fan who is tired of always “building for the future” by trading-off proven players, especially pitchers, for prospects? The Rockies have not been able to build from their own farm system thanks to over a decade of failed drafts. When a team can’t build from its own farm system, it needs to try to build from other teams’ farm systems. Does this sound like the Rockies?
Keep or trade: D.J. LeMahieu?
Brendan:Trade him. I first heard Joel Klatt suggest that the Rockies should look to move LeMahieu on his morning radio show, and I think it makes a lot of sense. LeMahieu has shown flashes of potential, but he is an asset that needs to be cashed in sooner rather than later. The emergence of Josh Rutledge and the continued development of Trevor Story make LeMahieu expendable and enables the Rockies to deal from a position of strength. LeMahieu is not a good enough prospect to yield much in return by himself, but including him in a trade with an established player (like Cuddy or Betancourt) could entice the other team to let go of a better prospect. Second base has been a long standing problem for the Rockies, and it is strange to suggest that a prospect like LeMahieu should be traded, but his value is likely maxed out right now and the Rockies should act swiftly.
Kevin:Might as well keep him. He won’t return anything of value (neither Casey Weathers nor Ian Stewart are valuable pieces), and he fits a nice role as a back-up player shifting between Colorado Springs and Denver. His hitting needs to improve, but his glove work has been very good. I just don’t see the Rockies getting anything in return for him that would make it worth trading his (limited) value.
Ned:LeMahieu has proven himself as a nice player—he is a professional defensive player, and has a promising bat. But, he has no trade value during the summer, and therefore won’t be traded. In answer to the question, in the unlikely event the Rockies could get a legitimate prospect in return, they should move him. The team seems to have a surplus of quality middle infielder prospects, and LeMahieu wouldn’t be missed. Rutledge has looked very, very good at short. In fact, if Rutledge is a good as he has looked over the past several weeks, it is time to move Tulo to third base. While such a move would be controversial, I envision Tulo as a third baseman having Mike Schmidt’s power and Brooks Robinson’s defense. He would not need to range as far at third which should give his leg muscles a break. Tulo’s career could be lengthened and his leg health benefitted significantly by the move to third.
Stay or go: Ramon Hernandez?
Brendan:He should go. For all of his defensive sort comings, Wilin Rosario is going to be the #1 catcher for the Rockies for the next few years and the Rockies no longer need Ramon Hernandez. Hernandez was useful at the beginning of the year to take some of the pressure off Rosario, but his extended stay on the DL forced the Rockies hand with Rosario, and he has proven to be a gifted offensive player that is here to stay. Mentoring young players is not a good enough reason to hold onto a veteran like Hernandez (Jamie Moyer?!) and backup catchers are always available. The Rockies are fortunate that Hernandez is healthy in time for the deadline, and if there is any interest, he should be moved before the inevitable return trip to the DL.
Kevin: Don’t trade Hernandez. Again, his production this year has probably reduced his value to the point where the Rockies would not get anything worthwhile for him. He needs to stay because he serves a good role as a mentor for Wilin Rosario, who still has a ways to go as a receiver, but has shown enough promise to be the everyday catcher. Hernandez will be making $3.2 million next year, which is not a very big impact on the payroll. He can be a very good backup catcher. I suspect that a healthy year next year would improve his production, and he’d be a much better trade piece next year after another season of mentoring Rosario. Keep him around.
Ned: When the Rox signed Hernandez in the off season, it looked like an essential acquisition after they traded Chris Iannetta for batting practice pitcher Tyler Chatwood. The plan was that Hernandez would handle the bulk of the catching duties, hit at little better than Iannetta, and tutor young catching prospect Wilin Rosario. Injuries to Hernandez changed that plan dramatically. Looking at the season, the Hernandez injuries forced the team to use the young Rosario whose sieve-like catching further weakened the poor pitching. This year’s team is a disaster, and it will not recover from its death spiral. I vote for selling Hernandez (if there is anyone who is interested in buying) and continue to limp along with possibly the worst receiver in the major leagues.
Have a different take? Let us know in the comments below.
Got an idea for a future 3U3D discussion? Email us at BlakeStBulletin@gmail.com
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8 comments
JD
July 30, 2012 at 1:33 PM (UTC -6)
This team should clearly be playing for the future. That said, middle relievers play well up to age 40, and Belisle has proven that he has the rare ability to treat Coors just like any other park. Keep him, if nothing else than because O’Dowd would surely not get any value in return, being a horrible GM.
LeMahieu has no real value, so it doesn’t matter either way. Hernandez has no value now, and I really don’t care to save the Monforts money that won’t get used for anything helpful anyway. Keep him until the offseason, then see if we can upgrade.
Rico Rodriquez
July 30, 2012 at 10:07 PM (UTC -6)
The bullpen pieces are the only players who would have any value on the market (maybe Hernandez, too, but they may as well keep him), and I can understand the reluctance to move any of them, particularly with this idiotic pitching alignment. LeMahieu has literally zero value on the market; why trade him, or even offer him around? He serves a purpose, I suppose.
I’m still amused that there are people on this blog complaining about the Jimenez trade. I realize the returns have been mixed, to say the least, but does anybody notice that Ubaldo is one of the worst starters in the AL? He’s an albatross in their rotation, and a total disaster. But…but…that mean O’Dowd traded him away! He was an All-Star once! Sweet christ, you embarrass yourselves with this stuff.
Again, the idea of moving Tulowitzki to third base is brought up. Why? Because of Josh Rutledge? Jesus you people are shortsighted. Be happy if Rutledge helps solve the gaping maw at second base in the future. Plus, what about the great Nolan Arenado? I thought that he was supposed to be the answer at third base. Is that already over?
JD
July 31, 2012 at 9:50 AM (UTC -6)
Ubaldo’s failures don’t automatically make that trade a “win”. So far, the players we got for him have been just as bad, so it’s more of a wash. Moreover, one could argue that based on Ubaldo’s PERCEIVED value in July 2011, we should have gotten something good in return. Failing to do that can be considered a failure.
Brendan Giles
July 31, 2012 at 2:22 PM (UTC -6)
The option of moving Tulo to third base is the opposite of shortsighted. He has a history of lower body injuries (quadriceps tendon in ’08, hip labrum last year, sports hernia this year) and moving him to a less strenuous position could decrease the stress on his body. The Rockies are at their best when #2 is hitting in the cleanup spot and anything that will keep him in the lineup is worth considering. I don’t think anyone is advocating that Tulo is the 2013 opening day third baseman, rather, this is a long-term solution to what is becoming a yearly appearance on the DL. However, I tend to agree that the relative “sighted-ness” of such a move is dependent upon the motivation. If Tulo is being moved to third to make room for Rutledge, then yes, it is shortsighted. However, if Tulo is moved to third to increase his durability and longevity, and Rutledge just happens to be the guy that steps in to facilitate the change, then that is putting your best player in a position to have continued success and is “long”-sighted.
Brian
July 30, 2012 at 11:55 PM (UTC -6)
I cringe to think what this team would be like if we were to trade Belisle. I have no doubt that the veteran leadership he (along with Betancourt) provides is one of the reasons that the bullpen has been so good this year, and been about the only thing that has lived up to expectations. I don’t think WAR, WHIP, or any other stat can quantify the intangibles these two provide. For a team that supposedly values chemistry so much I can’t believe they would really consider trading Belisle, especially as he could have many more years of success ahead of him. I don’t really see the point of keeping Hernandez either as Wil Nieves is also a veteran that can fill Hernandez’s role, at a much lower cost. I too also don’t understand why some people are still so enamored with Jimenez. As much as I dislike O’Dowd and would love to see him unemployed, the Ubaldo trade was a good move on his part. Ubaldo had a great 3-4 month run; aside from that he has been in the range of mediocre to terrible. He has the third-worst WHIP (Jeremy Guthrie being one of the two that is worse), most walks, and most wild pitches in the majors. His strikeout rate is also way down, and the number of homers allowed is way up. I think it’s shortsighted to compare White/Pomeranz with Ubaldo because White and Pomeranz are young rookies, who realistically (if not for the ineptitude of O’Dowd) should have spent the majority of this year in the minors, honing their craft. You can’t compare a 23-year-old who has pitched a grand total of 67 major league innings with a guy who has been the starter in the all-star game and who has played in the World Series. You have to give the rookies time to adjust. Instead, because of a lack of pitching depth, they are being forced into the fire to see what they can contribute.
CodenameDuchess
July 31, 2012 at 7:44 PM (UTC -6)
This concept of “intangibles” that you speak so fondly of is the reason we grabbed Scutaro and over paid for Cuddyer. I like Belisle too but the reason he has been valuable can be perfectly explained by WAR and WHIP. The guy has pitched his ass off this year and has been pretty damn good since he’s been a Rockie.
As for Ubaldo the man was unhittable for 3-4 months and was pretty damn good for the 1.5 years before that. I’m not saying that it was a good or bad trade at this point but Ubaldo was certainly more than the 4 month run to start 2010.
JD
August 1, 2012 at 12:00 AM (UTC -6)
You’re right, you can’t compare them. So don’t judge the trade yet – either way!
But don’t shortchange Ubaldo, either. The guy matched Matt Cain’s numbers from 2007-2009, then got better in 2010. And he did it at Coors. No one else has ever come close. Give him credit for that.
TroyF
August 1, 2012 at 3:52 PM (UTC -6)
Beslisle should have been dealt. DJ should stay (though I don’t think he has much of a long term future with this team. Hernandez simply doesn’t matter. He’s got one year left on his deal, it’s a modest deal and he can tutor Rosario. (though yet again Ned keeps talking about the horrific effect of Rosario on the pitching staff when the numbers under Hernandez have been even worse. I mean, we are in the middle of August here, are you going to at least try to come up with a fact to support your claim? OK, forget a fact, how about a quote from the staff, I mean ANYTHING. If you are so locked into this belief, it might be a good idea to actually back it up with something other than “I think this has happened and therefore I’m right” If not, you kind of look like Jim Tracy with Dexter. Just saying. . .
Now, why am I in favor of trading our best bullpen arm? To start off with, he’ll be 33 in three weeks. He’s also been very lucky this year. His HR per fly ball is down 3% from his career. His line drive percentage given up is higher, but he’s somehow lowered his BABIP.
The reality is we control him for one more year, a year where he will regress on a statistical level. If you could have gotten one impact prospect for him, why didn’t we do it? The Pirates moved Brad Lincoln and got back Travis Snider, a former high end prospect who fell out of favor. The deal has nothing but upside for them. Even if Snider falters, a bullpen arm is far easier to replace than anything else on the team.
Do I like trading high end talent for prospects? Not really. But lets not act like Belisle is CC Sabathia or Cliff Lee. He’s a 33 year old bullpen harm who has had 3 solid years and has a ton of wear on his arm because of those years. To think either he or Betancourt were untouchable is a truly brain dead move.