Today Todd Helton opted to have surgery on his hip and will miss the rest of the 2012 season. Helton does plan on playing in 2013.
Not to pile on an already awful 2012 season but…
According to Baseball-Reference.com of all the first basemen in baseball with at least 250 plate appearances only Ike Davis, Casey Kotchman, Ty Wigginton, Juan Rivera, James Loney and Justin Smoak have contributed less to their teams offensively in 2012 than Todd Helton. Helton has an offensive WAR of -0.2 which is 23rd out of 29 players with at least 250 plate appearances while mainly playing first base.
While Helton’s .238 average is good for 21st out of those same 29 players his on-base percentage of .343 ranks him 13th. His .400 slugging percentage ranks him 18th. Helton’s career triple slash is .320/.419/.545 and you can see his numbers this year and far, far below his past performance. When your slugging is below your career on-base it is not a good season.
Helton isn’t a power hitter anymore but his 24 extra-base hits are good for 22nd out of 29. In all fairness to Helton the guys he is ahead of him have played more games (31 more games in Loney’s case) than Helton. If Helton had another 30 games, even at his woeful pace in 2012, he would jump into the top 15 in baseball among first basemen in extra-base hits.
Helton isn’t a top first baseman anymore and he will not ever be again. The cold hard truth of sports and life. The Rockies are a better team without him right now and probably will be next year without him, too. According to BR.com Helton has not been worth anything this year with literally a WAR of 0.0. Fangraphs.com is a little more kind to Helton and says he has been worth a half win in 2012.
With Helton’s career obviously coming to a painful close; I will leave you with this WAR graph on Helton’s possible Hall of Fame candidacy. It isn’t fair to compare Helton to the true all-time greats who have played first base like Gehrig, Foxx, McCovey or Murray, but what if we compare him to a few fringe HOF first basemen currently in the Hall? Guys like Mize, Perez and Cepeda? I won’t compare to the ridiculous choices like Chance, Bottomly or Terry, but how about three pretty darn good first basemen?
Big "thank you" to Fangraphs.com for the wonderful WAR graphs tool (click for fullsize).
Helton is going to get penalized for his home/road splits and the fact, that in a home run era and in a home run park, he didn’t get close to 400 bombs when it seems 500 isn’t even the floor requirement anymore. I say no to his Hall of Fame application but I know many Rockies fans feel otherwise.
The work of Bill Geivett?
Since Geivett took over this new role as GM of the Major League team…or whatever his title…the Rockies have started Dexter Fowler in the third spot in the line three out of four games (Helton was batting third yesterday). With Josh Rutledge batting second and Carlos Gonzalez fourth the Rockies have a pretty good top of the order even if Eric Young Jr. bats leadoff (despite his poor OBP I do like him batting first because even when he gets out this year it seems to be exciting).
The team still doesn’t have a guy great at protecting CarGo by batting fifth, but Jordan Pacheco does do one thing well: hit the baseball. He rarely walks and doesn’t strike out a bunch so if anything opposing pitchers have a concern with him following CarGo: Pacheco will put the ball in play and with the ball in play anything can happen.
If this is the work of Geivett, and I find it really hard to believe it has Jim Tracy’s fingerprints on it, then this has been a positive move for the team already.
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24 comments
Kevin Giles
August 6, 2012 at 2:15 PM (UTC -6)
Losing Helton for the year is one of the best things that could have happened to this team. Not only will they get more production out of whoever replaces him (Matt McBride might prove me wrong on this), but this will force management’s hand to play a younger player at first. For whatever reason, Tracy seems hellbent on playing old players who can’t hack it, rather than younger, cheaper, more able players.
There is no sense playing aging, sub-par veterans when the team is as bad as this. The only purpose of this season now is developing the future. Despite Arenado’s slow year in Tusla, the team needs to promote him and give him an extended look in the majors. Find out if he can be the starting third baseman next year.
Promote Arenado, shift Pacheco to first.
Rico Rodriquez
August 6, 2012 at 5:28 PM (UTC -6)
By all accounts, Arenado has regressed at AA this season. There’s no reason to promote him if he can’t even cut it in Tulsa. What would be gained?
I have all respect for Todd Helton, but really, really wish that he would retire. They have to move on to find out who can play first base (whether Colvin, Cuddyer, or whomever ), and I see no reason for him to come back next season for what will likely be just as disastrous a team, run and managed by the same crowd who have allowed the franchise to become a joke. They should just offer Todd a front office position, or see what, if any, interest he has in coaching.
This should also convince the team to let Giambi move on, unless, as I’ve long suspected, they want him to eventually be a hitting coach/bench coach for the team.
Steve
August 6, 2012 at 2:29 PM (UTC -6)
The article says “Helton does plan on playing in 2013″. Todd hang it up and retire.
Anna R.
August 6, 2012 at 7:15 PM (UTC -6)
I hope that Todd can come back next year to train someone at first base, you know, like what was ‘supposed’ to happen with our young catcher this year. I like Pacheco, but he is rather rough around the edges. I think that would be a good transition for Helton.
BA Baracus
August 7, 2012 at 12:56 PM (UTC -6)
Travis, if Helton would have hit .400 that one year he had a chance and that is the only thing that was different about his career stats, would that single stat be able to change your mind and put him in the hall in your eyes?
Travis Lay
August 7, 2012 at 2:22 PM (UTC -6)
No, if he hit .400 it wouldn’t change my mind. Kerry Wood had an amazing season his rookie year, including pitching the best game ever according to pitching score, and I don’t think he is a HOF’er. Fernando Valenzuela isn’t a HOF’er either after his amazing season. Or more recently I don’t think Juan Gonzalez is a HOF’er even after a few great seasons.
It is about the career, not the single accomplishments.
BA Baracus
August 7, 2012 at 4:35 PM (UTC -6)
My point was that if he is close right now, then hitting .400 (an unheard of stat) could push him over the top. Like if Kerry Wood would have had a career overall that was borderline hall worthy and you see his phenomenal rookie year and that’s enough to push him over the top. I guess I just want a Rockie to make it, maybe Tulo or Cargo if either can crank it up a few notches.
Greg
August 7, 2012 at 2:14 PM (UTC -6)
I’m just curious. Why do you think defensive stats play no role in HOF voting? You speak plenty of his offense and decline, but at his peak, he was one of the best defensive 1ststats basemen, in baseball. I will admit Helton is my personal favorite to play them game, and sadly, for him, team loyalty won’t count for much (though it did seem to help one of my other fav’s in Barry Larkin). I’ll just say I hope you are wrong. Helton brought a lot to the game, and particularly, the Rockies. I, also, hope he gets his hip taken care of and comes back ss a valuable member of the team, again. No player can claim as much love for the Rockies.
Travis Lay
August 7, 2012 at 2:28 PM (UTC -6)
Talking about first basemen defensive greatness is like talking about Kim Kardashian’s ability to spell – she might be fantastic at it but I just don’t care. Know what I mean?
First basemen get into the HOF with their bat, not their glove. To get into the Hall of Fame based on glove (or at least have that be a decently sized part of your argument for someone gaining entrance into the Hall) they need to A. be an all time great in that regard and B. (for me) play at a defensive position more important than first base. I’m talking shortstop, center field and second base, primarily.
The order of importance for defense is something like SS, 2B, CF, C, 3B, RF, LF, 1B….so being the best defensive player at the least important defensive position isn’t saying much.
Now, with all of that said I will agree that Helton is one of the best defensive first basemen in baseball and should have won more Gold Gloves. Unfortunately it just isn’t a major factor when electing a first basemen.
Brendan Giles
August 7, 2012 at 4:09 PM (UTC -6)
Another note on his Hall candidacy: Helton never finished higher than fifth in the MVP voting. In fact, he only finished in the top 10 three times (and only received one first place vote in his career). MVP voting is not the best barometer of Hall worthiness, but it is a good indicator of dominance, and during his best years he still was not considered a top 5 player. In fact, he was not even the highest ranked 1st baseman during all but the 2000 season, with Albert Pujols, Jeff Bagwell and Jim Thome all being voted ahead of him at least once. Bagwell and Thome are actually pretty good comparators for Helton (although I do not have the time for an in depth analysis) as they played the same position during relatively the same era. Are either one of those guys HOF’ers? I would say no to Bagwell and yes to Thome, owing mostly to his 600+ career homeruns. I just remeber Helton being more similar Bagwell than Thome and, unfortunately, that probably leaves him on the wrong side of Cooperstown. Helton can thank the steroid era (and that douche bag rumor mill Wayne Hagin) and Coors Field for the lack of respect throughout his career and i don’t see it turning around when it comes to the HOF.
JD
August 8, 2012 at 9:59 AM (UTC -6)
You’re right, but that just plays into another conversation about media awards.
Year after year, players are snubbed for awards they deserve, including All-Star appearances. And year after year, homer fans who vote for the wrong guys justify themselves by saying “Don’t worry about it; this stuff is for the fans. It’s no big deal!”
But then these awards are used as HoF criteria. That IS a big deal.
Travis Lay
August 8, 2012 at 12:15 PM (UTC -6)
Helton should have won the MVP in 2000 when he led the league in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. But, I think you are right, while I don’t like looking at MVP voting or ASG inclusion much because both are so flawed I think the fact that he was selected to the ASG only 5 times in 16 years and never did finish higher than 5th says something about the quality of other first basemen during his era and what will likely be a reason why he is not elected to the Hall.
Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera all jump in my mind as guys more worthy of the HOF than Helton who all played at some point during Helton’s career. I am sure I missed a few, too – Paul Konerko? Will Prince Fielder finish with a better career? Helton just isn’t viewed as the best first basemen of his era much less HOF worthy.
Kevin
August 8, 2012 at 12:00 PM (UTC -6)
You forget one thing, Helton is a baseball player, it’s his job, not to mention he has a good faith contract with the team one more year. Everyone thought he was done years ago and proved last year that, if his body doesn’t betray him, he’s still one of the best players on the team. Saying he should retire because of a bad season would be like us telling you to quit your job simply because you wrote a bunch of crappy articles. Would you quit your job? I didn’t think so. If Helton is healthy, he is the still the best option at first base.
But good job picking bad statistics to prove your point. Why harp on BA (a severely flawed stat) and leave out OBP? Helton’s .343 stands seventh (if we include Rutledge’s small sample) on the team. That’s a hobbled, old man getting on base more often than Pacheco, Scutaro, Nelson, Cuddyer, Colvin, Herrera, and Rosario. Of first baseman with 225+ AB – 14th. Again, a man who has been playing injured most of the season.
Save this discussion for after next season (which you even admit will be bad), when his contract is up. Just like Galarraga before him, the team should honor the contract and decide who plays 1B then. I’d rather have Helton earn the last year of $17mil (or whatever it is) than the team pay him that not to play. Also, there is NOBODY in the entire organization at first base that people are excited about after Helton. People clammoring for Colvin or Pacheco at first are only grasping at straws.
Travis Lay
August 8, 2012 at 12:10 PM (UTC -6)
It’s a good thing I don’t get paid to write!!
I included OBP, slugging, etc and saying Helton is the best player on a team 20 games under .500….???
I also never indicated that the Rockies shouldn’t pay him for next season.
Kevin
August 8, 2012 at 3:22 PM (UTC -6)
My mistake, you did mention OBP. However, regardless of what the team’s record is, a healthy Helton still represents a better chance at winning than anything the franchise currently has waiting in the wings. And, obviously by watching this season, unless a new first baseman is acquired during the off season, even a crippled Helton is as good as most of the roster. Perhaps better positioning in the line-up to take more advantage of his OBP (2nd, perhaps?)
Regarding pay, I think you completely missed my point. I didn’t accuse you of saying they shouldn’t pay him, I simply stated that I’d rather he earn his money on the field than from his couch.
On your first sentence, how do you not get paid? This site seems to be sponsored by ESPN (says at the top: ESPN Affiliate). Are you saying you GIVE AWAY your work to ESPN? Do you receive no money from the ads running on this site? Plus, you dodged my question.
Travis Lay
August 8, 2012 at 3:52 PM (UTC -6)
Your question is idiotic. If I had a bad “season” or more accurately a bad quarter I would get fired. I would lose my job and have to find another job. So, yes, Helton should be fired for sucking ass. At an advanced age and with the recent trend of injuries (back in recent years and now his hip) he is highly unlikely to return and be worth a damn.
As for who should play there instead? Cuddyer, that’s who. Colvin in the OF.
Lastly, you would be surprised at how few bloggers get paid. We get some money from the advertising on the site but it is minimal at best. It’s not like a Rockies blog – a team with an un-passionate fan base (for the most part) and for a team who absolutely has blown monkey nuts for over a calendar year – generates a lot of traffic no matter how good, or poor in my case, the writing is. I think it is safe to say Purple Row has the corner on the Rockies blog market and that isn’t going to change. I do this because I love baseball and I love to express my opinions. Whether people agree or not, I don’t care.
Kevin
August 8, 2012 at 4:45 PM (UTC -6)
Please. Helton has hardly “sucked ass” unless your basis for comparison is Young Todd Helton. By the dubious stat of oWAR (highly subjective and interpretive) only five players are worth 1 or more. Even at -0.2, Helton is statistically insignificant from nearly everyone on the team (Colvin at 0.7 and Cuddyer at 1.2). Factor in the defense you so clearly think is irrelevant and he is a wash with those two players – while playing crippled. Your statement “The Rockies are a better team without him right now and probably will be next year without him, too.” is ridiculous – of course they are better off without an injured player. If Helton is not healthy and ready for next season, he should retire. Otherwise, he is the best option the Rockies have.
(You are obviously missing my point in the job question. The Rockies could fire Helton by releasing him, ala Cleveland with Derek Lowe. People like you say he should just retire when you have no real argument or better solution to back the statement. If the team wants him, he believes he’s still got something left, he’s willing to put in the time to be ready for next season, and he still wants to play, why should he quit just because fans think he should? So I ask again, would you just quit if these same things applied to your job? It’s only an idiotic question because it’s addressing an idiotic notion.)
Travis Lay
August 9, 2012 at 1:28 PM (UTC -6)
Considering Helton has the same oWAR as Guthrie I would say that means SOMETHING and isn’t insignificant.
Helton hasn’t “sucked ass” this year, but he hasn’t been someone who should continue to get regular AB’s with the Rockies.
The Rockies are better without him next year. Time to find out if someone else can play. No sense in continuing to give ABs to a guy who is getting old very quickly and isn’t going to be part of this team contending – if/when they do – because they aren’t contending next year either.
The Rockies cannot fire Helton. Sure they can DFA him like Lowe was by the Indians, but this is a business and public PR does weigh in on decisions. I know it doesn’t seem like it since the Monforts apparently are keeping O’Dowd and Tracy but can you imagine the backlash they would get if they DFA’d Helton??
And you keep jumping around with your question. First you asked if I should be fired for poor performance and I answered that I should. Now you are asking if I would QUIT if I had poor performance, hell no. If I could get by and take 4 months of sick time and not participate at work and get paid to do it, hell yes I would. Do I recommend my place of business to employ me if I did that? No. Then again, you continue to insist to compare apples to carrots. Comparing a guy who is unionized in a business where the minimum salary makes over $400,000 a year and which their contracts are guaranteed to myself in a world in which this is an “at will” state for employment with much less money at stake is stupid.
Stop trying to compare a professional baseball player to a guy working in IT.
And if you must, then in the simplest terms if you do not perform at your job you should be fired. I hate unions, but baseball players have them and thanks to their union they make millions and their contracts are guaranteed (Derek Lowe is still getting paid).
Jeremy
August 9, 2012 at 1:12 PM (UTC -6)
Travis,
Why do people say that Coors helps Rockies batters get inflated stats without realizing that it must cause their road woes as well?
Is it any wonder most of our players cannot hit breaking pitches very well when they see 50% less of them than everyone else?
Maybe it’s not that Helton needed balls that broke less to hit like he did at Coors over his career. Maybe he just didn’t get enough consistent work on them.
It must wreak havoc on players constantly adjusting to hitting on the road, then at altitude over and over, the same way it wreaks havoc on pitchers. Constantly adjusting what the ball will do when you see it leave the hands knowing it won’t do the same thing it did the previous 9 games.
Why don’t people talk about this? Coors doesn’t just help home hitting, it ruins road hitting and in so, probably averages out a player’s stats to how they would play for any other team.
Travis Lay
August 9, 2012 at 1:15 PM (UTC -6)
I think some people do talk about this. If breaking balls are flatter at Coors then hitting them on the road, where they break more, would certainly be more difficult.
The biggest beef I have had with the Coors talk in recent years is when national media criticizes Rockies hitters because of their home splits but doesn’t give due to pitchers who also pitch here and are successful (obviously not applicable this year….but in recent years with guys like Ubaldo).
CodenameDuchess
August 9, 2012 at 2:35 PM (UTC -6)
Well said however you forgot to mention that they never discuss home/road splits for other players. Ted Williams had some pretty significant home road splits and people aren’t obsessed with talking about how Fenway helps lefties.
Is it a surprise that Curtis Granderson became a power hitter after landing in NY which is a launching pad for lefties? Can we call Koufax over rated because he got to deal in Dodgers Stadium?
Jeremy
August 9, 2012 at 4:24 PM (UTC -6)
Agreed!
And people were raving about Carlos Beltran before the ASG bug his home/road splits were worse than Cargo’s at that point (and may still be).
It just seems like people automatically latch onto the Coors Field thing without actually analyzing everything in play. Is it impossible that some of our guys really are that good? Matt Holliday kept up his success even after leaving Coors and aside from 2007 his splits saw similar drops on the road.
Helton’s home/road splits should have absolutely nothing to do with his HOF candidacy…the Coors Field phenomena has hurt his stats as much as they have helped them.
Kevin
August 9, 2012 at 3:14 PM (UTC -6)
Finally, I think we’re starting to agree. Helton shouldn’t have been getting AB’s after getting hurt. But are you telling me that a healthy Helton should still be sitting next year? The Rockies do not have a suitable replacement in the minors and replacing his AB’s with Colvin’s 0.7 oWAR gains nothing (not to mention Colvin’s 2011 WAR of -1.7). Yes, Helton’s career is coming to a close, but unless the offseason sees a free agent signing bringing a real first baseman, Helton is the best option. Everyone thought Chipper Jones was done and look at the season he is having. I’d rather take a chance on that than adding 0.7 oWAR. If Helton comes out next April and stinks up the joint, by all means, they should bench him.
And since you brought up Guthrie, by that reasoning Strasburgh (0.8 oWAR) could be playing first base over Colvin. All you’ve proved is that oWAR is a flawed statistic; even by all of the different sites that calculate it note that it makes assumptions, attempts to evaluate, etc. (But we can discuss oWAR and every other WAR another time).
Reread my original comment and the whole string – not once do I ever ask if Helton should be fired and my question remained the same. The point wasn’t to compare different jobs, simply to point out that we as fans should not be clamoring for Helton to retire, we should be clamoring for the team to get rid of him (which you do) if he is unable to perform next season. And thank you for agreeing with that stance – you wouldn’t quit either.
Mike
August 13, 2012 at 8:29 AM (UTC -6)
I also don’t think that Helton should be fired. However, I also thought that it was a mistake ever taking him off the DL this year; in that way, the organization would have been encouraging him to think about retirement this offseason while keeping a roster space open for a healthy player AND playing Cuddyer at 1st base where he hurts the team the least. This is not germane to the Helton conversation, but I kind of wonder why the team didn’t trade Cuddyer WITH either Betancourt or Belisle…as in, if you want the pitcher you also need to take the hitter; we are including the pitcher with a decent contract as part of your taking the bad hitter’s contract.