There are some players that I love to watch. They might not be All-Stars or maybe not even great everyday players, but they are fun to watch.
I grew up watching the Chicago Cubs on WGN and Shawon Dunston is one of my all time favorite players. In my baseball card collection I have a book just for Cubs cards and Dunston, Mark Grace, Andrew Dawson, Kerry Wood and, yes, even Mark Prior have pages dedicated to their cards only.
Dunston wasn’t an offensive force by any means. He did play 18 years in the big leagues and only OPS’d .712 for his career. In only five of those 18 seasons did he finish with an OPS+ over 100 (100 being league average). He stole double digit bags 10 times in those 18 years and if you were selecting an All-Star team he probably wasn’t on it (only two invites in his career), but, man, COULD HE THROW! That one aspect of his game, that freaking hand cannon he called an arm…might not be the best use of one of the greatest Pulp Fiction lines…was awesome. To this day I compare every shortstop’s arm to Dunston’s.
Eric Young Jr. is this kind of player for me. He doesn’t field particularly well and his career OPS+ of 75 says he can’t hit. He gets on-base OK at a career .340 clip but his career slugging is a measly .342. BUT THE DUDE CAN RUN! After the All-Star game I wrote that I would love to see a skills competition sort of like those old NFL competitions: I want a bracketed “Fastest Man in Baseball” 90 foot dash (or 40 yards, whatever). And I might put a lot of money on EY2.
Now here we are in the middle of August and many fantasy websites are declaring EY2 the hottest hitter in baseball, and he might be. Going back to August 4th EY2 has started 10 games (pinch hit in an 11th) and accumulated 50 plate appearances. During this stretch of baseball EY2 has a triple slash of .478/.510 and…wait for it…wait… SLUGGING .739!!! During this stretch of baseball he has three doubles and three home runs! In the 610 plate appearances prior to these last 50 he has two home runs. What gives?
He hasn’t been hanging around with the Melk Man, has he?
That is in 100% jest, I hope you know. I kid, I kid.
After this hot streak EY2 is now batting 323/.384/.466 with a 115 OPS+ in 2012. Well above his .267/.340/.342 and 75 OPS+ for his career. Many say that to truly evaluate a player in baseball they need to have around 1,000 plate appearances before any true conclusion can be made about that player’s bat. I don’t think, for one second, that EY2 has any chance of hitting 10 home runs a year but his career on-base percentage in the minor leagues (over 3,000 plate appearances) is .388. His .384 OBP this year isn’t a lot higher than previous big league seasons and pretty much right inline with his minor league numbers.
If EY2 can get on-base nearly 40% of the time then the Rockies do need to find a place to play him everyday. The one thing I love about EY2 is his speed and if he is on-base that often he will get to showcase it and he has to be worth 40 steals a year if he gets 600 plate appearances. He does have 61 career stolen bases in 660 big league plate appearances and many of those steals came late as a pinch runner when teams know he is going to attempt a swipe.
Where do the Rockies play him? That’s a tough question. He doesn’t profile as a corner outfielder because those positions are usually reserved for power. He looks like a second baseman in size and no way his glove plays at third base. After watching Josh Rutledge over the past few weeks that kid needs to see regular time at second base and team up with Troy Tulowitzki to possibly combine to create one of the most powerful middle infield combos in baseball. He has to play right field, even though his weak arm makes him an even less likely candidate for the position.
Look around at some of the best right fielders in baseball: Jose Bautista, Hunter Pence, Mike Stanton and Jay Bruce lead the list and are all big time power producers with above average arms. But the Rockies can’t play him in center because Dexter Fowler owns that position and in left you have Carlos Gonalez and he isn’t going anywhere, or should he? Traditionally the best arm in the outfield is in right field because more balls are put into play there and you need a strong arm to throw someone out going to third or home plate (farther from right field to third then from left field). But at Coors Field left field is harder to play because it is so expansive…but couldn’t EY2′s speed play well in right field at Coors? He has the speed, more than enough of it, to cover all of that space. And half of the games the Rockies play it doesn’t favor left field as being so much bigger than right, so CarGo’s superior arm can come into play in right. *Pot shot warning* And it isn’t like CarGo’s half-assed jogging play in left field has been a good fit this year for all of that space at Coors.
For the rest of the year EY2 should play left field and move CarGo to right, where his arm is better suited (who doesn’t want to see him gun down guys trying to go first to third on singles to right?). And while we are at it move Rutledge to second base now; no sense in him getting reps at short when it is clear to everyone (or at least it should be) that Tulo has that position locked down.
7 – EY2
4 – Rutledge
8 – Dex
9 – CarGo
2 – Rosario
3 – Cuddyer
5 – Pacheco
6 – Herrera (or if LaMahieu can play here)
1 – pitcher
When Tulo returns he bats fourth with CarGo and Dex both moving up and dropping Rutledge to sixth in the order.
Where should EY2 play? Should he play everyday? Le me know in the comments.
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21 comments
Brian
August 16, 2012 at 12:43 PM (UTC -6)
Last year I would always cringe when Jim Tracy would throw EY in the outfield; he didn’t look comfortable and played subpar defense. I never thought I would be an advocate of EY being an outfielder, but, his play in the outfield has improved tremendously compared to last year, and I think it is where he its best. The Rockies don’t need another infielder; we have solid starters in Ruteledge, Tulo, and Pacheco, as well as serviceable backups in Nelson and LeMahieu. That leaves the outfield, where you already have (and can’t take out) Cargo and Dex. Sure EY’s arm is comparatively weak, but I think that is somewhat offset by the speed he possesses. And let’s be honest, can he be any worse defensively than Cuddyer is/was? I’ve never ascribed to traditional baseball wisdom that corner outfielders have to be power positions; sure, that would be great, but at the same time the Rockies are already getting power from shortstop and catcher—two positions that are not considered power positions. If EY can get on base at a 40% clip I’d take it. We all know the havoc EY can cause once he gets on base. Not only does he serve as a distraction to the pitcher, but just take a look at yesterday’s game. Not many players in the MLB could’ve scored on Colvin’s double; EY’s speed was the difference-maker. It’s interesting to note that, since EY has been starting regularly, the Rockies have been doing better (the 3-3 roadtrip followed by the sweep of the Brewers). Obviously there are a lot of factors going on there, but the young lineup we have had for the past couple weeks has really come through, and EY has been a big part of that. EY has earned, and deserves, the chance to be the everyday starter for the rest of the season. Since the Rockies aren’t going anywhere it makes sense to start him and see what he can do given the chance to have regular ABs. He is too valuable of an asset to keep on the bench. Unfortunately, Cuddyer is going to be coming back soon, and undoubtedly he will get regular starts over Young (or Colvin), even though it makes little sense to start Cuddyer, both offensively and defensively. I would put EY in right and Colvin at first; the young guys are obviously the future of this team, and we should give them experience and see what they can do.
Travis Lay
August 16, 2012 at 1:04 PM (UTC -6)
I agree that the power generated from SS, C and 2B allow the Rockies some flexibility with have no power at 3B or LF (or RF wherever EY2 plays).
Supposedly Cuddyer will play 1st when he returns, leaving EY2 in the OF. But we will see…
Dan
August 16, 2012 at 2:15 PM (UTC -6)
Trade Fowler for a controllable pitcher, like the Braves’ Tommy Hanson. EY2 and Tim Wheeler can cover CF until David Dahl is ready in a couple years.
Dan
August 16, 2012 at 2:26 PM (UTC -6)
Obviously that is for next year, I guess keep him in right for the rest of the season. Cuddy at 1B and Colvin starting in the OF/1B 3-4 days per week??
JD
August 16, 2012 at 4:22 PM (UTC -6)
Do NOT trade Fowler. That would be a bad move. Fowler has more value than EY2. EY2 has had one little hot streak and otherwise been a bad player throughout his career. It’s not time to go all-in on him yet.
I’d like to see Cuddyer moved so that Colvin can play 1B and then EY2 in left and Cargo in right. If Arenado pushes Pacheco off 3B, so be it. Else if Colvin or EY2 falls off, move Pacheco to 1B and Nelson/Arenado at 3B.
But let’s wait a few months and see what EY2 sustains.
CodenameDuchess
August 16, 2012 at 5:17 PM (UTC -6)
First let me say that I agree with you completely. EY2 in LF, Cargo in RF and Colvin at 1st. That said I think the only way that Cuddyer gets moved is if he closes out the year strong and he can’t do that from the bench. I think Colvin has earned a shot at a full time position next year (preferably 1st) but for the rest of the season I think he would be best used in spot starts at 1st and in the OF. Cuddyer needs to play and shine in if there is any hope at moving him.
Lastly, I’m really enjoying this EY2 surge but maybe it presents an opportunity to sell high? Could he be moved for some decent pitching or perhaps a Chris Iannetta type catcher (solid if not spectacular)? Could that be accomplished with an EY and Cuddyer package? Under this scenario potential you position Colvin in RF full time, roll Rosario to 1st and the new catcher slides in?
JD
August 16, 2012 at 4:20 PM (UTC -6)
Do NOT
Rico Rodriquez
August 16, 2012 at 5:37 PM (UTC -6)
You do realize that Tommy Hanson is utterly damaged goods, yes? You are aware that most people think his shoulder is completely shot, right? Yeah, you probably don’t.
Fowler is finally showing all the tools Rockies fans had long heard about, so the obvious solution is to trade him for some middling pitcher, because we are GUARANTEED that some guy in A Ball will be able to take over ‘in a couple years’. You know for all the talk on this site, and elsewhere, about how dumb Dan O’Dowd is, the fact of the matter is that the blogger/commenter consortium is about 300 times more stupid about the game than a guy like O’Dowd or Tracy is.
OMG Trade Tulowitzki for Kershaw and Kemp, play EY at shortstop and bat him cleanup! Yeah! Problem solved!
Idiots.
Dan
August 17, 2012 at 8:30 AM (UTC -6)
I think trading Cuddy’s contract for Kershaw and Kemp would be a better fit.
Brendan Giles
August 16, 2012 at 3:12 PM (UTC -6)
I whole heartedly agree that EY needs to play everyday and together with Rosario, Rutledge, Colvin, and to a lesser extent Pacheco and Nelson there is a lot of potential. And that doesn’t even include the rumored greatness of Arenado. Combine all of that with Tulo, Dex, and CarGo and it looks like a very nice lineup.
This then leads to the next question: how much credit does DOD get for assembling the young position-player talent? We can all agree that the Cuddyer signing is regretable and the top of the drafts have been awful, but like it or not, this is a nice group of young position players assembled by DOD. Is it a matter of sheer luck? Are the young guys only good in comparison to the crap that the Rockies have force fed us all year? It is hard to say, but his reassignment to the minors seems to be the perfect fit. He can’t evaluate college/high school talent (see the draft results) or major league vets (see the guys brought in this year) but he might actually have a knack for minor leaguers (CarGo and Colvin). Pretty narrow specialty for the GM, but a skill nonetheless.
JD
August 16, 2012 at 4:26 PM (UTC -6)
Don’t go overboard. This is still a streaky offensive team that plays at Coors, and the pitching is dreadful. You’re evaluating during a hot streak, which is generally foolish.
EY2, Nelson, and Pacheco have very low ceilings, and Rosario has a lot of work to do on his average and defense. Rutledge is more encouraging, but even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
Rico Rodriquez
August 16, 2012 at 5:38 PM (UTC -6)
Yep. See, now this guy is sensible.
Rico Rodriquez
August 16, 2012 at 5:40 PM (UTC -6)
I think it’s a safe bet that, by the time the Rockies are a decent team again, guys like Pacheco, Nelson, Young will be long gone. They have abilities, but are nothing to hang a hat on. Rutledge, hopefully, can solve the never-ending problem at second base, and Rosario’s bat will find a home somewhere. Other than that? I’m not seeing it. Pacheco has, literally, no power what-so-ever.
Travis Lay
August 16, 2012 at 6:28 PM (UTC -6)
In looking for something positive to write I chose this.
In reality I agree with many of the comments above. This is a hot 10-12 days for EY, let’s see if this is even remotely close to how he performs for the remaining 5-6 weeks of the season. Cuddyer does need to go and that signing was awful from day 1, but who is going to take him at 2 years and 20 million owed? No one.
The pitching on this team is so bad that there is no way they are ready to compete in the next 3-4 years. There isn’t enough available on the open market (and what FA would want to come here anyway to pitch 4 innings a night?!) to build an even competent staff next year. It will take time and development to get a good staff….something the Rockies have not been able to do. Ever.
(except a few fluky years with guys like Morales coming out of nowhere)
Kevin
August 18, 2012 at 9:58 PM (UTC -6)
I’ve said it before, and someone above said it as well – trade Fowler while he’s worth something, for some starting pitching. If not, trade EY for the same. The Rockies have a terrible record of hanging on to players too long (Ian Stewart, Neifi Perez, every closer they’ve ever had) instead of selling high on them. The one exception is Ubaldo. Fowler is a streaky hitter who strikes out too much, thinks he’s a power hitter, and stinks on the bases. If they won’t trade Dex or EY, then trade Rutledge (or even Pacheco). But, I also agree with Travis – let’s see the rest of the season of EY before making any crazy decisions.
(Regardless, they should sell high on Dex. EY or Charlie Blackmon can cover just as much grass as Fowler).
JD
August 20, 2012 at 2:22 PM (UTC -6)
I’ve been first among the sell-high complainers (Atkins, Hawpe, Stewart), but I don’t see Dex in the same mold. I think he’s a sustainable good performer, not an overachiever.
Kevin
August 20, 2012 at 4:02 PM (UTC -6)
JD, your list is interesting, but I’ve always had a problem with people getting down on Atkins. He was a good third baseman and a good hitter from ’05-’08. I truly believe that the continued noise about Ian Stewart (it went on for years) broke him mentally. The Rockies should have traded Stewart when he was a bally-hooed prospect; he would have netted a lot more than what they eventually got. Instead, they essentially killed Atkins and Stewart was a bust; now they have no third baseman until Arenado develops (or longer).
Same thing with Brad Hawpe and Seth Smith. Hawpe was a very good hitter from ’06-’09 and nobody stretched to third base on his arm in right field. Throw in all the clamoring about Seth Smith (again, went on for years) and you have another guy not feeling appreciated and Smith essentially being tossed away for peanuts.
Now compare those two stretches to Dex ’09-’11 and you’ll see why I haven’t bought into Fowler just yet (Dex only compares favorably in OBP).
I have no problem with keeping Dex, but the team has plenty of CF options and Dex would bring the biggest haul in a trade. Tulo and Cargo are going nowhere, the team has no uber-prospects in the minors, making Dex the logical candidate to trade as part of a rebuilding effort. EY and Blackmon are both speedy outfielders that profile exactly like Fowler, but without his odd fear of stealing often. There isn’t the same clamor over EY and Blackmon to displace Fowler (like those other cases) and the difference was that Atkins and Hawpe were key pieces in the World Series team of ’07, where Fowler merely played for the ’09 wild card team.
JD
August 21, 2012 at 10:06 AM (UTC -6)
I was down on Atkins because of what I saw watching him hit, not his numbers. He was overachieving. As for Hawpe, I knew he was streaky and weak vs lefties, so his AS performance in the first half of 2009 made me want to sell him at the deadline (also, Smith was looking like an equal replacement). I never wanted to sell Smith – that was a stupid giveaway that led directly to the Cuddyer signing. Stewart should have gone when his work ethic issues became clear in 09-10.
Dex doesn’t look like he’s overachieving except in the HR department. His OBP is a legit reason to keep him. I don’t see EY or Blackmon nearly matching Dex’s offense. Ever.
Kevin
August 21, 2012 at 1:16 PM (UTC -6)
Fans like you are exactly what I’m talking about when it comes to Atkins and Hawpe. You were down on Atkins because of what you saw watching him hit, not his numbers. What the hell does that mean? So four years of consistent, good hitting and good numbers is meaningless? And complaining about Hawpe’s weaker numbers vs lefties, as if he’s the only hitter in the majors that has splits like that; again, ignoring four very good years of hitting? If DOD wasn’t so bad at his job (or the owners weren’t so cheap), they would have cashed in Smith and Stewart when they were prospects for some good returns. Had they done that, we could still be watching two of the Rockies’ better hitters in their early 30′s (having not had their confidence eroded by constant yammering for Smith and Stewart), we wouldn’t have a huge hole at 3B, we wouldn’t have Cuddyer’s contract, and might even have starting pitching that doesn’t make you want to cover your eyes. I, for one, would rather have a proven product that one that has mere potential.
Which brings me to Dex. How can you say Hawpe and Atkins overachieved, but think Dex is not overachieving (look at his three previous years)? If he’s turned a corner, great, even more reason to trade him since he’s more valuable. This team is not going to contend with Dex and no pitching, so the logical choice is to trade him (caveat this with DOD getting fired, so someone with actual brains can execute a good trade). I realize I’m saying almost the exact opposite about Dex than those other two, but the difference is they played for a contender, while this team is a joke.
And just so you don’t think I’m over-praising Hawpe and Atkins, them being traded would also have been a logical move – they had value and Smith and Stewart were waiting in the wings. After all the dust has settled, Hawpe and Atkins were straight up dumped (no trade) and Smith and Stewart were traded for castaways and reclamation projects.
Joel
August 20, 2012 at 12:27 PM (UTC -6)
At least for once we allowed ourselves to see if a guy like Dex was worth the money. There have been a lot of times when O’Dowd shipped a kid out long before we knew what we had and the kid ends up be a key piece of a contending team. It’s a game I like to call “Not Good Enough to be a Rockie.” And then you look at the player we got in exchange for the kid, and he either never makes it to the bigs or he’s a way past prime veteran. The Cuddyer trade would have been great 5 years ago, but now he’s past prime.
Kevin
August 21, 2012 at 12:36 PM (UTC -6)
Joel, who are you talking about? The only kid I can think of that was let go early was Brad Ausmus way back in 1993, their inaugural season in which they couldn’t have already assessed him (plus, trading for two major league starting pitchers and all you give up is a prospect is a deal you make every single time). Please provide names of these kids that became key pieces on contenders, as I am honestly coming up a complete blank on Not Good Enough to be a Rockie.
As I said earlier, the Rockies have a nasty habit of giving players far too much time to realize their potential (Smith and Stewart), often protecting prospects to the point of absurdity.
(And please don’t respond with Seth Smith and Jason Hammel. Each of them spent several years with the Rockies as regulars before getting traded. Smith is hitting below his career norms, which weren’t great to begin with, and Hammel’s four starts before going on the DL ranged from mediocre to pummeling. Hammel was a silly trade simply because the guy chewed up 170+ innings the last three years with decent numbers for 4 or 5 pitcher (lopsidedness of the trade went up as Guthrie imploded and now is gone).)