The Rockies are in the midst of one of the best stretches of the season with a 4 game winning streak and 7 wins in their last 10 games. The 8 wins already in August has already surpassed July’s total (7) and even featured back to back wins for the starting pitchers. Much of the improved play has been a result of young players getting extended playing time thanks to under-performing veterans going on the DL. This week, we discuss if Todd Helton should return for 2013, if Josh Rutledge should begin to prepare for Tulo’s return, and who can provide the best protection for CarGo.
1. Do you want to see Todd Helton on the Rockies’ roster in 2013?
- Brendan: Absolutely. Todd Helton deserves a better end than what has happened in 2012 and he should be on the roster for 2013. He could even take a page out of Chipper Jones’ book: announce that 2013 will be his last year and take a final tour. I am not saying that he should be starting 100+ games for the Rockies, but a reserve/mentoring role is appropriate. Essentially, he could take over Jason Giambi’s role as a bat off the bench that can provide an occasional start to stay fresh. It is not like the Rockies have a whole lot of competition for first base and Helton has earned the right to end his career on his terms. Even though he is a shell of his former self, I would like to see Helton ride off into the sunset and I hope that #17 is in the dugout next season.
- Kevin: The Rockies will give Todd Helton a roster spot next year (he does have one year left on his contract), and that is a microcosm of what is wrong with this franchise. This organization refuses to make “difficult” decisions that will improve the product on the field. One of the difficult decisions is parting ways with aging veterans who cost too much and don’t produce on the field. Cuddyer MUST be traded. His salary is too big, and there are other players who are much younger, at least as good, and cost a fraction of the price. But, this organization likes “clubhouse guys,” whatever the hell that means. How has this clubhouse culture overhaul worked out, O’Dowd? So, with regards to Helton, I have no desire to see him on the team next year. Riding off into the sunset is fine and great when you’re actually good, but when all you do is hit poorly, field poorly, and play only one position, there is no sense in having that person on the team. I love Todd Helton; he is the best Rockie ever, a possible hall of famer, and unequivocally should have his jersey retired by the club. It would be unfortunate to see his career end this way, but it would be more unfortunate to see him play just as poorly next year while doing next to nothing to help the club win.
- Ned: A healthy Todd Helton playing at a high level would be terrific for the team. Helton has a career BA of .320, and average annual production of 103 RBI. A bat like that in the 3, 5 or 6 hole would be a welcome addition to any team. Problem is, he turns 40 next year, and probably can’t duplicate his historic averages. Slipping Todd into a Giambi-like role is probably the most likely scenario for the Rockies. Throughout his career, this guy has been the face of the franchise and as steady as a rock. We are very fortunate to have had him in Colorado. Next year, 2013, is the last year of his contract. Hopefully, the team will give him an honorable exit and well deserved final year of accolades. Plus, it would be nice to see Todd advance a few more spots in the career doubles standings where he already stands at number 22 with 570 doubles.
2. When should Josh Rutledge move to second base?
- Brendan: That depends on if Tulo is coming back. If Tulo is really going to be back this year, then Rutledge should move when Tulo is about 5 days away. However, if Tulo is going to shut it down for 2012 and start fresh in 2013, then Rutledge should stay at short. The current Rockies roster is at its best when Rutledge is at short stop and I am a believer in always striving to win (or at least compete) even when the season is lost. He played 22 games at second base in Tulsa and has all off season and spring training to become comfortable at second, so I think he will be fine for 2013 regardless. If we really do see Tulo again this year (and I am pretty convinced that we will), then a few games at second before Tulo’s return is appropriate for Rutledge to adjust to the new position. Moving him now makes the current Rockies an even worse team, and in the Year of the Fan, the Rockies owe it to everyone involved to put their best product out there (even if their best stinks).
- Kevin: At some point, Tulo is going to have to move to third base. Some people are clamoring for this to happen sooner rather than later. One argument espoused by some is defense, but this is weak. Troy is still one of the best fielding shortstops in the game, with the sixth best UZR ratings from 2010 to 2012. His immediate replacement, Josh Rutledge, has fielded poorly in the majors, albeit in a small sample size. Also, note that Tulo struggled mightily on defense when he first was called up to the big leagues in 2006. The point here is that the infield defense is at its best with Tulo playing shortstop. However, the defense is only at its best when Troy is on the field, which brings up the second argument. Health concerns are the real reason to consider moving Tulo to third. Troy has been significantly injured four times in his career, two of which happened while fielding (the other two were a broken wrist from a hit-by-pitch and a lacerated hand suffered from breaking a bat in frustration with O’Dowd’s inability to put together a decent team). The most important thing with Tulo is keeping him on the field as much as possible, and if that means playing him at third base, where he will be less involved defensively and less likely to get hurt, then that is what the team needs to do. All of this means that maybe Rutledge should stay at shortstop and not move to second.
- Ned: Rutledge is an excellent defensive shortstop—good range, smooth pick-up, quick transfer and strong arm. This year, in his first major league season, he has played in 27 games and has 1116 plate appearances. His average is .315 with a .940 OPS. Every time a small hole in his swing seems to be exposed, he quickly closes it. In short, Rutledge looks to be the real deal. And you have to love his body language—not quite a strut, but he clearly exudes justified confidence. Fans tend to become a little outraged when it is suggested that the smart move would be to move Tulo to third, and leave Rutledge at second. Such a move would likely significantly improve Tulo’s leg health, lengthen his career, and increase his playing time every year. But the Rockies won’t make that move, because the team never does make the truly smart move. As soon as Tulo returns, the Rockies will move Rutledge to second where his fielding will be above average, and where he will hopefully continue his eye-popping batting. This will leave the really nice-hitting Pacheco at third. With Colvin likely taking over at first, the Rox look to have a first rate infield going into 2013, which will be a welcome change from recent years. Now, if they can only fix the problem at catcher…
3. Who is the best candidate to bat behind CarGo to protect him in the lineup? (Author’s note: the question was posed prior to Cuddyer being activated from the DL)
- Brendan: Of the currently active players, I would have to go with Jordan Pacheco. Teams are justifiably refusing to let CarGo beat them and as a result he has seen a steady diet of off speed pitches and intentional walks (including the unintentional-intentional variety). A hot Tyler Colvin would be the best candidate, but he is too streaky to be a consistent threat. Rosario has potential too, but he struggles too much with breaking pitches to change how teams are pitching to CarGo. Dexter or Rutledge are both options, but the Rockies need those guys getting on base ahead of CarGo to force the opponents into the situation in the first place. Pacheco certainly has his faults too: poor OBP (.342) and not enough power to name two, but with runners on base his triple slash line is .320/.368/.406 and his batting average on balls in play is .339, so he has a chance of taking advantage of more base runners. The bottom line is that no one on the current roster can consistently protect CarGo and highlights one of the under-appreciated effects of Tulo’s prolonged absence.
- Kevin: Pacheco, while sporting an attractive .309 batting average, has just the eighth highest OPS among regulars (.747), so I would not pick him. But, there are a few intriguing options for the Rockies. First, they can hit Colvin behind CarGo. Colvin has the third highest OPS on the team (.867), and although lately he has been struggling somewhat, he can best protect CarGo without reshuffling the lineup. People like Jim Tracy might shudder at the thought of back-to-back lefties in the middle of the lineup, but let’s worry about crafting a lineup that can actually get the Rockies into a competitive late inning game before we start worrying about what we’re going to do in a close game. Also, CarGo and Colvin both have decent lefty-righty splits, so this really isn’t a big deal. Second, the Rockies can reshuffle the lineup. They could play EY everyday, even if it is in right field. EY would lead off, and either Rutledge or Fowler would hit second (or Fowler could lead off with EY hitting second), with the other hitting fourth. Hitting Rutledge fourth would be a lot to ask of the rookie, but hitting Fowler fourth would take-away at bats from Fowler, who gets on base as much as almost anyone on the team. Among these options, I like the lineup of (1) EY, (2) Fowler, (3) CarGo, (4) Colvin, (5) Rutledge, (6) Pacheco, (7) Rosario, (8) Nelson. Note that Cuddyer is absent from this lineup not because he is on the DL, but rather because he has no business whatsoever taking away playing time from a younger player. The youth is the future, and the future is now.
- Ned: Conventional wisdom dictates that you should have a right-handed bat behind Cargo, who should stay in the three hole. Despite the brain-dead reasoning of ex-managers like Tony LaRussa, it is a mathematical certainty that the higher a guy bats in the order the more plate appearances he will have over the course of a season. Does everyone agree that Cargo’s plate appearances should be maximized? Good. Therefore, keep him in the three hole. Without Tulo, he should be protected with Rutledge rather than Pacheco. While Pacheco is a very nice hitter, Rutledge’s power and average merits clean-up, and gives greatest protection for Cargo. By keeping Colvin in the fifth spot and batting Pacheco sixth, this looks to be a solid middle of the line-up until Tulo returns to reclaim the clean-up position.
Have a different take? Let us know in the comments below.
Got an idea for a future 3U3D discussion? Email us at BlakeStBulletin@gmail.com
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18 comments
JD
August 18, 2012 at 10:32 AM (UTC -6)
I hate to say it, but I’m piling on the Tulo-to-third bandwagon. I love the guy, but I think a lot of what makes him a great shortstop is his arm, which allows him to play deeper than other shortstops and still get outs at first. Playing deep gives him range despite mediocre speed for a shortstop. The downside here is, he gives up infield hits in front of him, and he puts on a lot of miles.
The one concern here is that neither Pacheco nor Arenado seem like 2B material, and I don’t want Nelson as more than a utility guy. Moving Tulo to third forces better bats to the bench in favor of Nelson-types. That’s what gives me pause, for now at least.
We should ride out this season with this:
RF EY2
CF Fowler
LF Cargo
SS Tulo
2B Rutty
1B Colvin
C Rosario
3B Pacheco
P Dinger (couldn’t be worse…)
Next year, what I’d REALLY like to see, after a spring to teach some guys their new spots, is this:
2B EY2
CF Fowler
RF Cargo
3B Tulo
1B Rosario
SS Rutty
LF Colvin
C New Guy
P De La Rosa
See what I did there? I put Cargo in RF to use his arm, EY2 re-learned 2B so we have someone decent there, and that allowed Tulo to go to third. THEN, Rosario’ bat made it into the everyday lineup as a 1B, since his defense is way worse than that of other young catchers, making me think he’ll never be that good there, and catchers sit too often for his bat! Arenado? He’ll have to learn 2B and push EY2, maybe over Colvin. Pacheco? No upside – terrible power and doesn’t walk. Bench player.
Kevin
August 18, 2012 at 10:20 PM (UTC -6)
Is question number 3 related to the rest of this season? If so, the answer is, who cares? I understand the exercise, but the reality is the season is over and it doesn’t matter who hits behind CarGo for the rest of the season. What matters is Tulo hits behind him next season. The real question should be is who should be hitting IN FRONT of him. Fowler’s done admirably, but it’s a good way to find out who can really hit, since they’ll see a lot of strikes. The rest of the season is audition time, whether the fans like it or not. Winning is great, but meaningless, and if this team is going to right the ship any time soon, they need to start now, not next season.
Tulo should not be moving to third base. This is a dumb argument – Tulo gets hurt because he’s always going at max effort. This will not change if he’s moved to 3B. The Rockies haven’t had a decent second baseman ever – now they finally have Rutledge. And Rosario should NOT play first base, he should catch. The guy is a rookie, the team stinks, so he should take his lumps and learn. Again, with the exception of maybe Iannetta, the Rockies have never had a decent catcher either, so let’s see if it can be him.
Helton will not be a pinch hitter. Has no one ever noticed that the more he sits, the worse he hits? If he’s healthy next spring, he’s the best option at 1B (and his defense is still fantastic). I say play a healthy Helton as much as possible and if he breaks again, he’s done. Colvin is too streaky (and low OBP) and Cuddyer seems to be just as frail as Helton. There are no real prospects in minors either, so this is really a no-brainer. And before any of you respond that I’m a fool, I’ll say it again – he must be healthy or no go. He proved that he still had some gas left when his back was fixed, so he’s earned the benefit of the doubt.
Kevin Giles
August 20, 2012 at 5:03 PM (UTC -6)
A few things…
1) The point of moving Tulo to third in order to keep him healthy makes sense, assuming that Tulo gets injured by playing defense. At third, he will have fewer plays, which means fewer opportunities to get hurt.
2) Tulo should still play shortstop.
3) Defense is very difficult to measure statistically, so much of determining a player’s defensive value is based on observation. From what I have seen, Helton’s his glove work is still about as good as it gets, but his range to either side is about 17 inches. So Helton, who at one point in his career was a fantastic defender, is far from that now.
4) This year Todd’s OBP is .343 and he is slugging .400. Colvin’s OBP is .328 and he is slugging .537. Are you willing to sacrifice 137 slugging points for a mere 15 on base points?
Kevin
August 21, 2012 at 9:30 AM (UTC -6)
I am willing to take a chance on Helton returning healthy. If Helton returns to last year’s form, he gets 66 slugging points back, plus 42 more on base points. Add those 15 you mention and they break even (if OPS is what we’re concerned with here). Not to mention Helton strikes out far less than Colvin and works AB’s much deeper.
I’m mostly basing my opinion on track records and I’m not willing to anoint Colvin, who was atrocious for the Cubs last season, just yet. If the Rockies’ plan really is Colvin as successor, they need to come out and say it, let Giambi go, and split the time between the two of them next season. What cannot happen again is allowing Helton to play for more than a month injured. They won’t let Tulo do it, so why would they let Helton do it?
Bottom line is if the Rockies want to move past Helton, they need to tell him next year is it (like was done with Galarraga) and ride him as much as his body allows next year (like the Braves have done with Chipper). Colvin would have to go absolutely bonkers the rest of this season for me to reconsider.
JD
August 21, 2012 at 10:08 AM (UTC -6)
You can’t condemn Colvin for his 2011 without mentioning his 2010. This year isn’t the outlier you make it out to be. I agree that the Ks are a problem, but there’s a bigger factor: we will not contend in 2013. We should be developing guys for the longer haul, not blocking them with players who have no future.
Kevin
August 21, 2012 at 1:36 PM (UTC -6)
I’m not condeming Colvin, I’m advocating for a decision to be made. That being said, there’s no way Giambi comes back next year, so Colvin will get plenty of playing time when Cuddyer and Helton sit, so this won’t even be an issue. Helton has 15 years of proven track record; Colvin has 2. Throw in Colvin’s minor league numbers and you’ll notice we wasn’t exactly tearing it up, building an even stronger case for Helton – and I can’t stress enough, a HEALTHY Helton – to finish his contract starting at 1B next year.
One more bit of info, Colvin is 27 next month, pretty much ending the development phase of his career. I’ll say it again, he should get the job only if he goes vintage Albert Pujols for the rest of the season and spring training or Helton doesn’t recover from his injury. I know people hate to hear it, but baseball is still a business and people are going to want to see Helton finish on a good note (if his body allows it) for a team that won’t compete next year over developing a 27-year old who’s played for the team for 1 season (and is going to play a lot anyway).
Michael
August 19, 2012 at 9:05 AM (UTC -6)
Well I swore I wouldn’t do it but I went to the game last night and my two biggest takeaways being there in person are; Pacheco has a lot of work to do to be a real 3rd baseman. I hadn’t noticed from TV but live he reacts to every ball late, I know he is popular and maybe it was a bad game, but he didn’t look like a serviceable 3B to me. Second Jim Tracy really is the worst manager in baseball. In the 8th men on 2nd and 3rd no outs the pitcher comes up, at first Tracy actually sends Moscoso up before he realizes he can’t waste an out bunting someone over a base. So instead he sends up right handed Hernandez hitting a robust 215 to for the year to face righthander Heath Bell. He predictably strikes out and the Rox only get one run in the inning off a Sac fly. He then double switches Hernandez to 1B. This when Cuddyer would have come up third to bat in the 9th. So he sent a terrible batter in a poor situation (right on right), then weakened the defense by playing someone out of position, then arranged so you would have to PH the next inning instead of leaving the pitchers spot in the order 7 batters away. Awful. and oh by the way the player who pinch hit in the ninth was a switch hitter named Herrera who got a single of righthander Ciszek. I cannot believe we have to watch this stuff. The best part of the game was the HR Giancarlo Stanton hit in the first, I have never seen a ball leave the park so fast.
Seth
August 19, 2012 at 10:28 AM (UTC -6)
I agree that it was a very dumb decision by Tracy to do what he did in the 8th and 9th inning. But that is all he had left on the bench. Only Hernandez and Hererra were the only position players left by then so he had no other options. Now I agree that he should not have made the double switch with Cuddyer, because he essentially took out one of the lone power hitters in the lineup at that time. So not only was it bad managing at the end of the game but also poor managing throughout the game to let that situation occur. So overall Tracy is a terrible manager (as we all know) but it also doesnt help when you have crap players like Hernandez, so for that you have to thank Odowd…or Geivett…..or or whatever nut job we have who has the title of GM now…..
Seth
August 19, 2012 at 3:41 PM (UTC -6)
Nevermind Cuddyer was injured, Tracy is still an idiot though.
Kevin
August 20, 2012 at 9:10 AM (UTC -6)
Completely different topic, but has anyone noticed Jeremy Guthrie’s numbers with the Royals so far? Completely different pitcher. Plus, he took a no-hitter into the seventh yesterday. How else can this season get worse?
Joel
August 20, 2012 at 12:47 PM (UTC -6)
Please see my comment on the EY2 as a slugger piece. The game is called “Not Good Enough to be a Rockie.” I’m not saying the Guthrie is an All-Star or anything, but I would say he’s better than Sanchez. Why did Jason Hammel go? I know that he was hit-or-miss every start, but he was better than what we got now. Seth Smith, the guy was clutch, now helping the A’s contend for a Wild Card. I’m not saying the Rockies would be contending with them, but it would help if we had some talent.
Steve
August 20, 2012 at 4:56 PM (UTC -6)
There is just something really wrong with the Rockies “Top to Bottom!” They can do nothing right . I am turning my attentions to the Broncos and Peyton Manning.
Daniel T
August 20, 2012 at 10:08 PM (UTC -6)
I have read quite a few articles that you have written on the Rockies pitch count limit ,but have yet to see one comparing the Rockies pitch count limit to the Little League World Series teams 85 pitch limit. This is a great time to compare the Rockies pitchers to Little League pitchers!
Dennis
August 23, 2012 at 7:34 AM (UTC -6)
To JD’s comment about EY Jr. relearning 2nd base, he never learned it in the first place. As far as one player “protecting” another, help me out here: If player D is protecting player C ( presumably making player C a better hitter,) then won’t that mean that the pitcher must now be careful not to walk player B because of player C behind him ( and on and on, back through the lineup.) This rational would lead to the conclusion that a good hitter in the lineup makes everyone else better. So why worry about who “protectsf” whom? Plus, does anyone think an opposing pitcher will be thinking to himself, “Gee, I had better throw some hittable pitches to Cargo, because I sure as hell don’t want to walk him and face Tulo?”
Kevin Giles
August 23, 2012 at 8:18 AM (UTC -6)
Dennis, here is how I think about it…
If the lineup doesn’t go A, B, C, D, and D hits eighth rather than fourth, D’s protection of C is negligible. The protection idea only works where the strong protector is right behind the protected. If the protected was immediately followed by a garbage protector hitter, then the protected will simply receive fringe strikes and a heavy dose of offspeed pitches because the pitcher is not concerned about walking the protected because the garbage hitter behind him is easy to retire. If you create a gap between good hitters that is filled with mediocre hitters, the pitchers can pitch around the good hitters and retire the mediocre hitters; on the other hand, if the good hitters immediately follow each other, then the pitcher cannot pitch around any of the good hitters with the exception of the last good hitter. So, it does matter where you place hitters in a lineup for protection purposes,
Protecting hitters requires that you put the the best hitter available behind the protected hitter. When boiled down, you could almost say our discussion was “who is the second best hitter in the Rockies lineup?”
As to the last point, I think almost every pitcher in MLB (with Aroldis Chapman being a notable exception) thinks that they better throw strikes to CarGo (which generally means more fastballs) because they don’t want to walk him and face Tulo.
Kevin
August 23, 2012 at 9:55 AM (UTC -6)
Dennis, you are correct and are pointing out one of the goofiest trends in baseball in recent years where someone came up with another way to say what they’ve been doing for decades. The best two hitters have always hit 3-4 and the term “protection” is relatively new. And you’re right, pitchers don’t suddenly throw Cargo meatballs just to avoid walking him (note: they should be throwing outside curveballs and sliders to him; he still can’t lay off them). Checkout Cargo’s monthly walk totals: 9, 12, 6, 11, 11. If he was truly such a threat, why isn’t he getting walked more with “no protection” behind him? Either he’s swinging at more bad pitches or pitchers are just throwing better pitches.
Bottom line is nobody wants baserunners period, so pitchers try to throw strikes. If a pitcher is worried about the next guy hitting instead of the current guy hitting, he’s already in a bad spot.
Brendan Giles
August 23, 2012 at 11:52 AM (UTC -6)
Advanced stats will tell you that “protection” in the lineup is meaningless, but I have never been fully convinced of the analysis. IMO, lineup protection only matters in high leverage situations and/or late in ball games and as such the sample size dwindles (and makes it difficult to fully analyze). Does it matter who is “protecting” CarGo in the first inning? probably not, but what about with 2 outs in the eight and the go ahead run at second? In the latter scenario, I think it really does make a difference if the batter behind CarGo is Tulo or not. To Kevin’s point above, an essential element to being “protected” is indeed laying off bad pitches, something that CarGo must improve. I believe that lineup protection is a subtle – but real – phenomenon, that usually involves pitch selection. For example, in a late inning situation in a close game CarGo is batting with a 2-0 count. Does the pitcher “give in” and throw the fastball or does he bury a breaking pitch? The expected outcomes would be that although the fastball is more likely to result in a strike, it also is more likely to be hit hard and that although the breaking pitch is less likely to be hit hard, it is also less likely to be a strike (obviously that is a gross over-simplification). Forcing that type of decision making is what it is all about. Does it really matter for this Rockies team? Not really (because there are not any good options), but anything that lets CarGo see a couple more fastballs over the course of each game should help him out.
Kevin
August 23, 2012 at 12:24 PM (UTC -6)
Good points…situational differences have to be considered. But it also speaks to the extreme conservativism of today’s managers and coaches. These guys are so concerned about keeping their jobs, that they are more likely to call for those late inning walks than go after a guy or call that 2-0 fastball. These pitchers are major league pitchers and shouldn’t be there if they can’t throw a breaking pitch for a strike on any count, including a 2-0 count. I know I’m generalizing, but I also pitched for the better part of my career and did that myself. Most hitters, including the majors, anticipate 2-0 fastballs and have already decided to swing, regardless as to what is thrown. This makes it an easier decision to throw that breaking ball with a positive result.
I especially hate any intentional walk when there are two outs and love when the next batter follows up with a hit or walks with the bases loaded. It’s the equivalent of punting on 4th and 1 from opponent territory in football. Besides, the idea that “I don’t want so-and-so to beat us” is cowardly and anti-competetive.