The Rockies continued their improved play by splitting a 4 game series with the Miami Marlins and then sweeping the Mets in New York. The 13 wins so far in August make this the best month for the Rockies and are a welcome respite from the disastrous months of June (9-18) and July (7-17). Injuries continue to mount with the bug starting to bite the young players too: Eric Young was placed on the DL and both Dexter Fowler and Josh Rutledge are listed as day to day with leg injuries. The starting rotation was bolstered by the return of Jhoulys Chacin, who pitched well enough to earn a W in his first start since May. This week, we discuss the current hot streak, where Tyler Colvin should be playing, and what Chacin’s return means for the four man rotation.
What 3 words describe the recent stretch of improved play?
Brendan: It is cute. The wins are much appreciated and it certainly makes watching the games much more enjoyable, but this is still a deeply flawed organization. Beating up on the Brewers and Mets (two teams with worse bullpens than the Rockies) is nice, but don’t let a two week oasis distract from the desert of losing the season has become. The organization still refuses to make any managerial changes of significance and the body of work suggests that this is the aberration, not the norm. I was never convinced that a 100+ loss season would inspire any changes in leadership, so I am happy to see the Rockies on pace for “only” 96 losses. I don’t mean to disparage what the Rockies have accomplished so far this month, I am simply trying to focus on how lucky they are getting. For instance, allowing a base runner every single inning (as the Rockies did on Thursday) will not yield many 1-0 wins, but I will take them any way I can get them.
Kevin: Worst to First!!! OK clearly not this year, and probably not next year. But, the important thing to take away from this stretch is that with just average pitching, rather than historically bad pitching, this team can be decent. Of course, it helps to play the Brewers, Marlins, and Mets, all of whom are below .500 teams. This recent stretch highlights the fact that although the Rockies seemingly have done nothing but lose this year, there are actually quite a few bright spots. This team as a very good, young, offensive nucleus with guys like CarGo, Tulo, Fowler, Rutledge, Colvin, Rosario, Pacheco, and the recent emergence of EY2.
Ned: It’s about time. In spring training, most of us thought the Rockies would struggle early in the season until the pitching came around. But the pitching improvements we anticipated were the return of DLR and Nicasio, and the emergence of Pomeranz and White. Unless one had prescience not shared by mere mortals, you never anticipated that former Cardinals’ starter Adam Ottavino would be picked-up off waivers on April 3 and quickly become a bullpen mainstay. We did not anticipate that Jeff Francis would re-sign with the club in June, and become a reliable starter. We did not anticipate that relievers Belisle, Roenicke and Brothers would have 187.2 combined innings pitched on August 24, and that Rex Brothers would lead the staff with 8 wins. And we were not familiar with the phrases four man rotation and paired pitching. We expected the Rockies to play better sometime in the summer, but we thought it would happen earlier. We never expected the improved play to come with these pitchers, with the Rockies’ unique pitching strategy, and without Tulo, Helton and Giambi.
Is Tyler Colvin better suited for the outfield or first base?
Brendan: Colvin’s speed and athleticism make him a natural fit for the outfield, but the lack of prospects at 1B makes that a long term option too. The problem the Rockies have is what can they do with Cuddyer? If we ignore the Cuddyer clog and instead focus on the relative strength and weaknesses of this team, I would say that Colvin should play 1B. 1B might be Rosario’s eventual home if he cannot improve his receiving skills, but other than Pacheco who else is there? Plus, the Rockies have a glut of fourth outfielders (EY, Blackmon, Wheeler) that could handle the OF duties. But that is all without factoring in Cuddyer, who will play virtually every day when active. No Cuddyer and no Helton means that Colvin easily slides into the everyday 1B role, but jettisoning both of those aging players is a pipe dream. I think that with the way the Rockies are currently constructed, Cuddyer should play 1B and Colvin should be in the OF where his athleticism can be maximized as an asset.
Kevin: Colvin fits well at both. Ultimately, whether he plays first or outfield depends on the development of Nolan Arenado. If Arenado shows that he is ready to be the starting third baseman next year, then Pacheco will shift to first, where he will split time with Helton (or Pacheco could become a super-utility player at first, catcher, third, and maybe even second). Then Colvin would shift to right field. All of this depends on the organization trading Michael Cuddyer because they finally realize the absurdly obvious fact that Michael Cuddyer does not fit on this roster. Either way, Colvin fits at both, which gives the Rockies good roster flexibility that hopefully they can use to their advantage.
Ned: Which is better: Reese’s peanut butter cups or Snickers bars? Same thing with Tyler Colvin–he is very good at both positions. Being left-handed and with his height (6’3”), butter-soft glove and quick reflexes, Colvin is best suited for first base. But remember that the Rockies have Cuddyer under contract for two more seasons. The question then becomes where does Cuddyer help most? Since Colvin is definitely a better right fielder than Cuddy, Colvin should be in right with Cuddy at first. This alignment would allow Helton to be used in a reserve role during his final season. The Stewart/Weathers trade for Colvin and LeMahieu continues to look like grand larceny on the Rockies part. Colvin should be a long-term Rockie at either first or right (and we saw him play well in center this week), and LeMahieu has good promise as an infield utility man.
What does Jhoulys Chacin’s return from the DL mean for the four man rotation?
Brendan: It means that the four man rotation is over (at least for now). Don’t get excited, though, because the much maligned 75 pitch limit is here to stay. The dirty little secret is that the four man rotation has functionally been over for a little while now – the arms just aren’t holding up. Pomeranz has been skipped a few times (similar to Friedrich before he was shut down) whenever he doesn’t get four days rest so it has been five different starters, just not a regular rotation. The most compelling argument in favor of the four man rotation is that it is an attempt to prevent the starting pitcher from going through the lineup a third time. If we assume 4 pitches per plate appearance (in 2011 it was ~3.8), it should take approximately 72 pitches to get through 18 plate appearances – two times through the lineup. It all comes back to preventing the third time through and the four man rotation and its 75 pitch count are both logical outcomes of implementing this strategy. With Chacin’s return, nothing about the final strategy has to change: the goal is still to prevent the starter from facing the lineup for the third time. The 75 pitch limit should be eliminated (since each starter will have full rest before making another start), but limiting the third time through the lineup part of the strategy should remain.
Kevin: Although the Rockies are going with five starters for the next week, they are keeping the 75 pitch limit. This indicates that the Rockies don’t know what is in store for the four-man rotation. It looks like they are keeping the five pitchers ready to return to the four-man, but they are waiting for the starters to distinguish themselves one way or another. I suspect the team will go back to the four-man soon and that Tyler Chatwood will be the odd man out. Chatwood has been throwing well lately, with the exception of his rough outing against Miami. Despite the current five-man rotation, this team looks like it’s going to resume the four-man and piggy-back experiment soon.
Ned: Nice problem to have. However, the fragility of Pomeranz, and the recent success of the four man rotation dictates that the four man rotation will continue for the balance of the season. Has everyone noticed that the “four” man rotation is often a “five” man rotation with spot starts from guys like Moscoso, Cabrera and Sanchez . In fact, the concept of a rotation seems to exist only in the sense that some guys have regular starting assignments, and some guys have regular paired assignments. Nevertheless, whatever name we choose to give this program, it has been successful in contrast to the pitching in first half of the season. Chacin’s first start since his return was excellent; however, remember that it is just one game. The Rockies won’t deviate from the program that has brought some success to the club based on one good start from Jhoulys. Even if Chacin strings multiple good starts together, do not look for the Rockies to abandon the recently successful paired-pitching program. Maybe, just maybe, the team has stumbled onto the solution to the eternal problem of pitching in Coors Field. And maybe the characterization of this pitching strategy will change from desperate to revolutionary. BTW, has anyone missed Bob Apodaca?
Have a different take? Let us know in the comments below.
Got an idea for a future 3U3D discussion? Email us at BlakeStBulletin@gmail.com
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11 comments
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Kevin J
August 24, 2012 at 1:51 PM (UTC -6)
3 Words – Keep some perspective. Brendan and Kevin accurately point out they ran into three teams almost as miserable as themselves. Kevin, be careful uttering the words “very good, young, offensive nucleus;” DOD has touted that garbage for over a decade.
The Colvin question won’t be a big problem next year, as Helton and Cuddyer both can’t seem to stay off the DL. My guess is, barring an unlikely Cuddyer trade (by the way, he hasn’t been the disaster everyone keeps asserting; just overpaid), and Helton returning healthy in the spring, it’ll be Helton at first and Cuddyer in right, with Colvin getting 4-5 starts a week when the other two sit, with the early season dictating from there. Done correctly, Helton and Cuddyer should not sit on the same days, creating more opportunity for Colvin.
Ned, the four-man rotation has decidely not brought success. Prior to this winning streak (and a Mets team that decided bats were optional), the Rockies’ previous 8 games featured one game yielding less than 5 runs (3 on 8/16), the team going 4-4 thanks largely to loads of hitting. The Rockies won’t deviate from it because they have crappy management and no reason to change for this season and the biggest reason – it didn’t make things worse. The only reason it “appears” to be working now is because the team has managed to finally win some games. What it has proven, that no one is talking about, is that multi-inning relief pitchers are more valuable than single inning pitchers and that left-left/right-right matchups are also overvalued. Maybe it’s also shown that the so-called piggybackers might be better pitchers than the guys starting in front of them. The bottom line is when the pitchers throw more strikes and make better pitches overall, they are going to have success. The sooner they go back to a typical 5-man rotation, the better off the team will be for the future. If they don’t ditch it, the better pitchers are going to ditch the team as soon as possible, no free agent will come near the franchise except as an opponent, and draft picks might refuse to sign.
As for the whole “eternal problem of pitching in Coors Field,” the same solution applies. The Rockies have had success when their pitchers cut down their walks and kept their pitches down in the zone (also not a new discovery). The altitude causing longer recovery times and injuries is only backed by anecdotal evidence (unless there are numbers I don’t know about) and seems to be an excuse for bad training and poor coaching. If it’s such a big deal, maybe they should try making their players train in Colorado for part of the off-season rather than at lower altitudes to see if that makes a difference (though I can already hear the arguments that this will simply speed the process of deterioration). This altitude issue doesn’t seem to affect the Avalanche or Nuggets who play sports in which their players don’t stand around for the majority of the game, which makes it sound like an excuse in place of taking responsibility. Besides, if the idea was to cut down on wear-and-tear, a six-man rotation would have made much more sense (and as you point out, is kind of what they ended up with anyway).
Anonymous
August 28, 2012 at 9:24 AM (UTC -6)
Although I agree with most of your post, I think the additional wear on the pitchers comes from trying to throw the ball harder.
The two key ingredients for making a ball break are velocity and air resistance. With lower resistance, the ball must travel faster to break the same. This is physical law, nothing really speculative about it.
Perhaps our pitchers are so worn down from trying extra hard to make their pitches break?
The real question is why don’t the Rox focus on pitchers who can first and foremost locate pitches, particularly fastballs. Any pitcher that relies on a breaking pitch will ultimately fail at Coors Field.
Kevin J
August 24, 2012 at 3:06 PM (UTC -6)
Three words: Keep some perspective. You guys correctly point out the last three teams the Rockies have played are only slightly better than Rockies. Kevin K – be careful using the phrase “very good, young, offensive nucleus” – a phrase we’ve heard from DOD for over a decade.
Colvin should be playing the outfield given the options. Plus, this will probably end up moot next season depending on who gets injured first between Cuddyer and Helton. My guess for next season, barring a Cuddyer trade, and assuming Helton returns healthy, is Cuddyer in RF, Helton at 1B and Colvin playing 4-5 days a week for whichever of the other two is sitting (done right, Cuddyer and Helton never sit on the same days).
Ned – the four-man rotation is most decidedly not a success. Prior to the current 5 game winning streak (in which the Mets decided bats were optional), the eight previous games featured one in which less than 5 runs was given up (3 on 8/16) and the team went 4-4. It only appears successful lately because they’ve managed to win a few games (Chatwood pitched 3 innings in his last start; that is not an indicator of “working”). The bottom line is that the pitchers need to cut down on walks and keep the ball low in the zone (not a new discovery and worked for them in the past). If this system has proved anything it’s that the so-called piggybackers might actually be better than the starters, that multi-inning relief pitchers are more valuable than single-inning guys, and that lefty-lefty/righty-righty matchups are overrated. There is no magical/revolutionary solution to pitching at Coors Field just like there is no magical/revolutionary pill to make people skinny. It’s the same as it ever has been – work. Keep the ball down and throw strikes.
Going forward after this season, the Rockies cannot keep up the 4-man rotation or the 75-pitch count unless they plan on having a pitching staff entirely made-up of long-relievers or washed up starters. In the long term, it will lead to starters bolting at the first opportunity, zero free-agent pitchers, and draft picks potentially not signing with the club. It was a move made out of desperation to avoid exposing young, inexperienced pitchers to too much failure since most of them weren’t ready for the majors. If this nonsense continues next season, we might finally see fans revolt and smaller crowds watching what amounts to a Little League strategy.
JD
August 24, 2012 at 3:32 PM (UTC -6)
Three words: Proof of Nothing
The last thing I want is another three years of O’Dowd justified by a few injuries and a hot stretch that say “see, his team’s not that bad!”
We have decent, but not superb, positional talent. At Coors, we’ll produce above-average offense. But pitching is still a disaster, and it’s not just Coors. That 1-0 win with baserunners on in every inning just shows we’re playing over our heads right now.
Kevin
August 24, 2012 at 5:12 PM (UTC -6)
Three words: Keep some perspective. You guys correctly point out the last three teams the Rockies have played are only slightly better than Rockies. Kevin K – be careful using the phrase “very good, young, offensive nucleus” – a phrase we’ve heard from DOD for over a decade.
Colvin should be playing the outfield given the options. Plus, this will probably end up moot next season depending on who gets injured first between Cuddyer and Helton. My guess for next season, barring a Cuddyer trade, and assuming Helton returns healthy, is Cuddyer in RF, Helton at 1B and Colvin playing 4-5 days a week for whichever of the other two is sitting (done right, Cuddyer and Helton never sit on the same days).
Ned – the four-man rotation is most decidedly not a success. Prior to the current 5 game winning streak (in which the Mets decided bats were optional), the eight previous games featured one in which less than 5 runs was given up (3 on 8/16) and the team went 4-4. It only appears successful lately because they’ve managed to win a few games (Chatwood pitched 3 innings in his last start; that is not an indicator of “working”). The bottom line is that the pitchers need to cut down on walks and keep the ball low in the zone (not a new discovery and worked for them in the past). If this system has proved anything it’s that the so-called piggybackers might actually be better than the starters, that multi-inning relief pitchers are more valuable than single-inning guys, and that lefty-lefty/righty-righty matchups are overrated. There is no magical/revolutionary solution to pitching at Coors Field just like there is no magical/revolutionary pill to make people skinny. It’s the same as it ever has been – work. Keep the ball down and throw strikes.
Going forward after this season, the Rockies cannot keep up the 4-man rotation or the 75-pitch count unless they plan on having a pitching staff entirely made-up of long-relievers or washed up starters. In the long term, it will lead to starters bolting at the first opportunity, zero free-agent pitchers, and draft picks potentially not signing with the club. It was a move made out of desperation to avoid exposing young, inexperienced pitchers to too much failure since most of them weren’t ready for the majors. If this nonsense continues next season, we might finally see fans revolt and smaller crowds watching what amounts to a Little League strategy.
CodenameDuchess
August 24, 2012 at 8:05 PM (UTC -6)
A. Really friendly scheduling. Nothing more. it’s been nice to see a couple of wins but the sun even shines on a dogs ass some days.
B. Outfield. His athleticism is wasted at 1st. I love to see them move Cuddyer but I just don’t think it is feasible. Hopefully next year they decide to start Cuddy at 1st and Tyler in RF and have Todd platoon with Cuddyer. In fact Todd could play 3x week at 1st plus be 1st bat off the bench while Tyler could gets replaced by Cuddy 1x a week if we need an extra RH bat one day or if he needs a break.
C. That its a 5 man rotation. Injuries have already made it a 5 man rotation and and think they really like the idea of the 75 pitch count / 2x lineup ideology. Hopefully it means Moscoso will not make another start.
Scott
August 26, 2012 at 10:05 AM (UTC -6)
A- Saying that August has proven anything is hilarious. They just finally hit a stretch of games against teams that are just as bad as they are- nothing more.The Marlins are awful, the Brewers are the worst road team in the world by a huge margin, the Mets have fallen into a black hole of Metball, and the Cubs…everyone knows about the Cubs. September will be business as usual, right back to the norm of single-digit wins for the month. They can get everyone back from the DL, everyone can play to their potential, and this is still a 65-70 win team. They just aren’t good on a consistent basis.
B- There isn’t a choice. He has to play 1B.
C- 4 man, 5 man, 75 pitches, 300 pitches….it’s still a terrible staff without anyone good enough to be better than a #4 on any respectable team. O’Dowd and the Monforts have destroyed any chance the Rockies have to be a contender for anything but a good draft pick for the forseeable future. No amount of gimmickry is going to change that.
Kevin
August 26, 2012 at 11:06 AM (UTC -6)
Not sure why my last comment is still awaiting moderation, but my responses are there. Scott – you’re wrong, there is a choice. Notwithstanding off season moves, Colvin is the best option for RF, not 1B.
Kevin Giles
August 28, 2012 at 10:56 AM (UTC -6)
I still think that there is a very good offensive nucleus. It might not be terribly young, but here are the numbers…
Josh Rutledge – Age 23; OPS+ 146 (Everyone has a hunch he will slow down as he gets more ABs, but he put up impressive numbers in Tulsa this year and Modesto last year)
Carlos Gonzalez – Age 26; OPS+ 127
Dexter Fowler – Age 26; OPS+ 123
Tyler Colvin – Age 26; OPS+ 120
Troy Tulowitzki – Age 27; OPS+ 112 (this number will probably go up next year, barring injury)
Eric Young, Jr. – Age 27; OPS+ 109
Wilin Rosario – Age 23; OPS+ 100 (OK, he’s average, but he’s just 23, so look for this to jump to above average soon)
Here we have five starters with plus bats who are 27 or younger. There is also Rosario, who looks like he will be an above average bat in the near future. Looking forward to next year, it’s very possible that the Rox will have six plus bats in the lineup that are 28 or younger. So yes, I think there is a very good offensive nucleus, and although the nucleus might not be very young, it is made up of guys who are either in their primes or are approaching their primes.
Also, EY, in my humblest of opinions, should be given a larger role. Think about him in CF.
Kevin Giles
August 28, 2012 at 10:56 AM (UTC -6)
note that the OPS+ numbers are just from 2012
JD
August 28, 2012 at 5:40 PM (UTC -6)
The Cleveland Browns have a good defensive nucleus, but they’re still a bad team. An “offensive nucleus” doesn’t mean much with this pitching staff.
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