**This was written before Monday night’s game against the Giants. Some stats below might not be totally accurate.
Is it just me or does it seem like the Rockies pitching has been a lot better over the past month or maybe even six weeks? It could just be recent memory since the team has allowed three or fewer runs in six of their past nine games, but, dare I say it, it feels like the 75 pitch count/starter+piggybacker strategy is working. Since August 1st the Rockies have held their opponent to three runs or less 17 times. That, to me, feels a lot better than the pitching performed early in the season. Before the All-Star break it seemed like whoever the starter was for the day they were going to allow four or five runs by themselves before they got the hook.
I wanted to take a look at how some of the key pieces of this new strategy have performed since June 19th when this decision was implemented and then also since August 1st – a date I picked completely arbitrarily because of feel. First up are the starting pitchers and I only used pitchers who pitched at least two starts on both sides of August 1st. After the starters we will check out the piggybackers (those pitchers who are first out of the bullpen after the starter hits his 75 pitch limit).
Starters
Since June 19th
- Jeff Francis: 17 GS, 83.1 IP (4.9 IP per start), 1308 pitches (76.9 pitches per start), 4.64 ERA, 1.356 WHIP
- Alex White: 10 GS, 39.1 IP (3.9 IP per start), 783 pitches (78.3 pitches per start), 5.03 ERA, 1.73 WHIP
- Drew Pomeranz: 13 GS, 57.2 IP (4.4 IP per start), 973 pitches (74.8 pitches per start), 4.84 ERA, 1.335 WHIP
- Tyler Chatwood: 11 G (8 GS all after August 1st), 5.26 ERA, 1.729 WHIP
Since August 1st
- Jeff Francis: 8 GS, 37.1 IP (4.66 IP per start), 625 pitches (78.1 pitches per start), 5.30 ERA, 1.580 WHIP
- Alex White: 8 GS, 33 IP (4.1 IP per start), 630 pitches (78.8 pitches per start), 3.55 ERA, 1.545 WHIP
- Drew Pomeranz: 8 GS, 32 IP (4 IP per start), 592 pitches (74 pitches per start), 4.50 ERA, 1.406 WHIP
- Tyler Chatwood: 8 GS, 34.1 IP (4.3 IP per start), 589 pitches (73.6 pitches per start), 4.46 ERA, 1.573 WHIP
What jumps out? First of all these are both really small sample sizes for pitchers. To get a good feel on a starting pitcher I would rather have a full season of work and 150 innings pitched or more. Most starting pitchers make 35 to 37 starts a year and at these rates the Rockies starting pitchers won’t touch 150 innings in a season going forward if the organization employs this strategy for an entire season.
Beyond that and for the point of this article, whatever that point may be, I don’t see much of a change. The stats since the 75 pitch inception and since August 1st look similar.
Looking at a pitchers WHIP (walks plus hits divided by innings pitched) is a better indicator of how well he is pitching than ERA. Once a pitcher creeps over a 1.300 WHIP they start to get risky with runs and as you can see the Rockies starters are closer to a 1.500 WHIP which is downright bad. Sure White has an ERA under four since August 1st but the fact that he is allowing one and a half base runners per inning is worrisome.
Piggybackers
Since June 19th
- Adam Ottovino: 28 G, 51.2 IP (1.8 IP per app), 863 pitches (30.8 pitches per app), 4.18 ERA, 1.297 WHIP
- Carlos Torres: 20 G, 37 IP (1.9 IP per app), 598 pitches (49.8 pitches per app), 4.14 ERA, 1.162 WHIP
- Guillermo Moscoso: 10 G, 16.2 IP (1.6 IP per app), 304 pitches (30.4 pitches per app), 6.48 ERA, 2.400 WHIP
- Josh Roenicke: 24 G, 41.2 IP (1.7 IP per app), 683 pitches (28.5 pitches per app), 2.81 ERA, 1.344 WHIP
Since August 1st
- Adam Ottovino: 12 G, 30.2 IP (2.5 IP per app), 482 pitches (40.2 pitches per app), 1.76 ERA, 2.583 WHIP
- Carlos Torres: 13 G, 25 IP (1.9 IP per app), 424 pitches (32.6 pitches per app), 6.12 ERA, 2.923 WHIP
- Guillermo Moscoso: 6 G, 10.1 IP (1.7 IP per app), 178 pitches (29.6 pitches per app), 3.48 ERA, 2.167 WHIP
- Josh Roenicke: 13 G, 21 IP (1.6 IP per app), 356 pitches (27.3 pitches per app), 3.86 ERA, 2.538 WHIP
And what do we see here? Look at those WHIPs!! Sure Ottovino has an ERA south of 2.00 but he allows two and a half base runners per inning pitched! That is atrocious. And the same can be said for the other pitchers.
My initial feeling was that the Rockies pitching has been better, but maybe they just ran into a really, really cold Atlanta Braves offense to start this week. Looking at the numbers this staff is still awful, just plain awful. Even if a pitcher only throws two innings every time he touches the mound (or just less than two) he cannot succeed allowing that many opposing batters to reach base. Sooner or later it will catch up and those innings in which two runners reach and he somehow weasels out of it will turn into five run innings.
Outside of Jhoulys Chacin (1.27 ERA since returning from the DL) the Rockies do not have a pitcher they should count on going into 2013 to start for the team.
Speaking of starting pitchers…
Since Jeremy Guthrie was traded to Kansas City, here are his stats: 10 GS, 3.23 ERA, 1.101 WHIP, 3.7:1 K:BB ratio and seven quality starts. Seven of his last eight outings have lasted six innings or more and six of his last seven have been seven innings or more. This includes outings against Texas (twice), Oakland, Detroit and the White Sox (twice) who are all potent offenses. This isn’t a Coors Field problem, it is a Rockies problem.
In 43 innings pitched for the Cleveland Indians Esmil Rogers has a 2.68 ERA and 45 strikeouts verse nine walks.
In his first full season with the Boston Red Sox Franklin Morales has thrown 76 1/3 innings for the Sox (with nine starts) and a 3.77 ERA. He has well over a 2:1 K:BB ratio with 76 K’s and 30 walks issued.
And Aaron Cook joined Morales on the Red Sox this year. Cook has had a few really poor starts, but in 14 games started he has thrown 76 2/3 innings with a 5.17 ERA. The ERA isn’t that great but what is really interesting about Cook’s season is that in those 76 2/3 innings he only has 16 strikeouts.
Ubaldo Jimenez is also having a rough time away from Colorado. He has made 28 starts this year for the Indians and currently leads the league in losses. In 161 1/3 innings pitched he has a 5.58 ERA and a 1.605 WHIP. He only has 134 strikeouts which is low for a guy who used to strikeout one per inning and this year he has 80 – EIGHTY – walks issued. Looks like his loss of control on 2011 was not Coors Field related either, he just started to suck.
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19 comments
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Mike
September 11, 2012 at 9:00 AM (UTC -6)
I totally agree. The Rockie’s pitching sucks. What is less apparent but still true is that the hitting also sucks. It is obvious on the road and not at all obvious at home…but outside of a very few players most of these guys are replacement level players…which leads to an outlook of last place for the next few years.
Jeremy
September 11, 2012 at 1:10 PM (UTC -6)
Hitting on the road always has been, and always will be a problem.
However much Coors Field helps hitters at home, it hurts them on the road. They constantly have to readjust to what a pitch will do once it leaves the hands….reading it as it leaves the hand is the same, but the way it moves changes.
How can hitters consistently have success when they cannot rely on anything consistent with regard to reading pitches?
Rutledge, Dex and probably Colvin are not replacement level. Cargo needs to pull his head out of his ass and stop feeling sorry for himself in that Tulo isn’t there to protect him. Rosario is making strides and already becoming a better hitter.
So, except for 1st and 3rd base, I don’t see a team of replacement level hitters at all. Maybe you need to look again.
JD
September 11, 2012 at 6:31 PM (UTC -6)
The net of the catching is replacement-level, given Hernandez’s suckitude and Rosario’s OBP. 2B has been replacement-level all year, as Rutledge hasn’t played there.
With Rutledge and Tulo together, we have five above replacement level, but so far this year, it’s always been four. Which means four are at replacement level. That’s bad, even for a team without disastrous pitching.
Jeremy
September 12, 2012 at 2:32 PM (UTC -6)
I was more just pointing out that if you have a team and you can only legitimately complain about 2 position players, you are probably doing OK in that department.
And even playoff teams will complain about 1 or 2 players, and we are certainly in a market where we should never expect to have that caliber player at every single position.
Charlie
September 11, 2012 at 9:54 AM (UTC -6)
Updating this story after last night, we should jump on the Alex White HR bandwagon. Even if the pitchers’ WHIPs suck, maybe we can get them to start helping their own cause and use Coors Field to their advantage as batters. Remember Mike Hampton hitting home runs?
(This post is only half sarcastic, since this is the point of desperation I’m at with the Rockies…)
BA Baracus
September 11, 2012 at 10:26 AM (UTC -6)
I’ve always wondered why pitchers can’t spend more time on batting. When they played in high school, I would bet the majority of MLB pitchers were great hitters since they were probably their teams best overall athlete as well. So if they play college they never hit, and they don’t hit in the minors unless both minor league affiliates are NL and AA or AAA. No practice means bad hitting.
The Rockies really need the next Babe Ruth, the great hitter and pitcher, that guy would be worth $40,000,000 per year today.
Brian
September 11, 2012 at 9:55 AM (UTC -6)
It seems pretty evident from the stats that the innings being eaten by the bullpen are starting to take their toll. Aside from Moscoso (who was so bad he couldn’t do anything but improve) the performance of the piggyback relievers has declined. I think we have started to see the flaw in this system, including in last night’s game. Although his pitch count was high, White was pitching well, did not walk any batters, and deserved the opportunity to pitch another inning or two, and possibly earn the win. Instead White came out and our overworked bullpen almost blew the game again for us, as they did a few times on the road trip, even though White could have (and deserved to) work at least one more inning. I think the improvement by the starting pitchers is due to experience; realistically, White, Pomeranz, and Chatwood should have all spent most of the year in AAA, honing their craft, but due to the failure of O’Dowd to create a competent pitching staff they have been forced into the majors before they should have. But as they have faced major league batters and gained that experience, their pitching has slightly improved. I don’t think the 75-pitch limit can be credited for the improvement of the starters, and its impact on the bullpen is clear through W-L ERA, and WHIP stats. I just can’t see it being viable through an entire season.
Kevin J
September 11, 2012 at 10:10 AM (UTC -6)
Maybe the pitching has just gotten luckier. As you say, allowing more than 2 base runners per inning is a recipe for disaster. But, maybe, they’ve reduced the number of big hits they’ve given up. What are the fly ball and home run rates for these guys before and after? Pitchers have a much bigger margin for error if they are only giving up singles and walks.
Travis Lay
September 11, 2012 at 6:12 PM (UTC -6)
There is definitely a lot of luck involved in the results right now.
joe
September 11, 2012 at 11:23 AM (UTC -6)
i wish that the rockies would re-employ the idea of a long reliever in the way that teams circa 1975 treated long relief instead of the “piggyback system” they currently have been trying. i like the fact that they have young pitchers and appreciate that there will be times throughout the year where they are unable to get to the fifth or sixth with those young starters. hopefully they can escape the jams in the third, fourth and fifth with guys like brothers, roenicke and reynolds to get out of the early inning damage and allow pitchers like ottavino, chatwood and torres to carry them from the fifth to the seventh. that system could still allow pitchers to develop, with a strong middle and long relieve without affecting the late inning strength of belisle and betancourt.
joe
September 11, 2012 at 11:28 AM (UTC -6)
i wish that the rockies would re-employ the idea of a long reliever in the way that teams circa 1975 treated long relief instead of the “piggyback system” they currently have been trying. i like the fact that they have young pitchers and appreciate that there will be times throughout the year where they are unable to get to the fifth or sixth with those young starters. hopefully they can escape the jams in the third, fourth and fifth with guys like brothers, roenicke and reynolds to get out of the early inning damage and allow pitchers like ottavino, chatwood and torres to carry them from the fifth to the seventh. that system could still allow pitchers to develop, with a strong middle and long relieve, without affecting the late inning strength of belisle and betancourt.
this could also allow them to create some sort of a true “hybrid” pitcher with a couple of long relievers seeing occasional starts each year creating more rest for young starters in coors field and something closer to a six man rotation than the original four man rotation.
Kevin Jordan
September 11, 2012 at 7:09 PM (UTC -6)
If we go back to 1975, we’re talking about getting rid of closers and “specialists,” which I am all for. Thes are the most overrated players in all of sports. All teams have long relievers today, they just don’t have 3-4 like the Rockies.
JD
September 11, 2012 at 6:33 PM (UTC -6)
I said it before and I’ll say it again. We need to dump the extra 1B spot from our positional roster and start carrying 13 pitchers and 12 position players, instead of the reverse, which is what everyone does today. Then we can afford shorter outings from our starters more.
Imagine five starters, five long men, a setup man, a closer, and a LOOGY. Of course sometimes the long men wouldn’t go, so they could be reused on other nights.
Kevin Jordan
September 11, 2012 at 7:16 PM (UTC -6)
If the Rockies can’t do with 12 pitchers, they should quit. Five long men is too many, four is really too many as well, under normal circumstances. However, I’d rather see a staff made up of 5 starters and 7 long men. Joe Posnanski wrote a great column a few months ago showing that in the last 40 years, closers have made absolutely no difference in team winning percentages when the team is winning going into the ninth inning. If the Rockies were an AL team, they could get away with 12 position players. With Jim “pinch-hit, then pinch-run in one at-bat” Tracy running things, even 13 position players is sometimes not enough.
A true “piggy-back” scheme would ideally see the starter go 6 and the piggy-back go 3.
joe
September 12, 2012 at 1:36 PM (UTC -6)
nationals dont have a long reliever, braves dont have a long reliever, the cincinnati reds, cards and giants dont have long relief. to say that every team has a long reliever is a bit of an overstatement
Kevin Jordan
September 12, 2012 at 6:11 PM (UTC -6)
Thanks for the correction; apparently, I’m living in the past. Out of curiosity, how did you determine that?
Simone
September 11, 2012 at 8:09 PM (UTC -6)
Is the Rockies pitching getting better?
The answer is: NO
So they’ve had a better than normal streak, but even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Mike
September 13, 2012 at 8:37 AM (UTC -6)
Exactly!
Pete
September 13, 2012 at 12:09 PM (UTC -6)
Pitching Better? No.
I can only assume that the continuation of the 75 pitch limit is intended to protect young arms for the rest of this year and hope that we have a plethora of healthy pitchers next year from which to choose a normal rotation. It doesn’t make sense to have Francis on that limit anyway, his arm isn’t going to get better no matter how many pitches he throws or doesn’t throw. I also think they are trying to force the young kids to throw strikes and get through 5 in order to get decisions. That also doesn’t seem to be working as White and Pomeranz continue to be among the league leaders in BB/9. Chacin is the only pitcher in the rotation right now that I would continue to limit. This season is toast, so the Rox should be gearing for next year already, that means starting Ottavino and Torres under the 75 pitch limit and see if they might have value as starters, at least flip them with one of the rotation guys and see what they can do. Again, Francis isn’t going to change in the next few weeks no matter what….why is he starting?
Defense better? No.
Haveto address this next year as well, can’t go another season where our awful defense costs us game after game all year long. I agree with some others that Cargo is just going thru the motions on dee. If he doesn’t correct this soon, he will give up any chance of another GG in his career, the media or whoever votes on these things really remember crappy defesive years for ever. The Rox just ignored defense this year and it cost them, but it has to be addressed before the season stats next year.
Can’t wait for this painful season to be over.
Selling Snake Oil (aka Paired Pitching) - Blake Street Bulletin » Blake Street Bulletin
October 12, 2012 at 1:44 PM (UTC -6)
[...] on September 11, Travis Lay laid out a comparison of the starters’ and piggybackers’ stats before and after August 1. He showed [...]