Over the past few weeks, I’ve noticed a lot of people getting down on Jordan Pacheco. The majority of the complaints focus on his defense – one comment going so far as to call him a disaster at third base – while other complaints center around his relative lack of power hitting, especially since third basemen are historically considered power hitters. While there may be some merit to these complaints, they’re wholly unjustified when put into the context of the entire 2012 season. It also shows how fickle, and sometimes impatient, fans can be when they arbitrarily give up on players who deserve more consideration.
For starters, Pacheco has performed well in his rookie season. Let me repeat that, this is Pacheco’s rookie campaign. That alone should earn him some slack, but some people are incapable of looking past the surface. As of Sept. 13, Pacheco has put up a slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) of .307/.341/.416 in 401 at-bats while striking out only 51 times. He’s also managed to drive in 43 runs while hitting in every spot in the batting order, hitting .353 with runners in scoring position. Finally, he’s hitting .275 on the road while the team average is .238 and we all know the troubles Rockies players have hitting on the road. On the defensive side in 82 games at third base (that’s the position I’m focusing on for comparison purposes later), he’s made 9 errors in 172 chances for a .948 fielding percentage; good for 28th out of the 36 players with at least 100 chances at 3B. While he’s still got a lot of work to do, he’s a far cry from defensive disaster (see: Ryan Braun, 2007). People also tend to forget that Pacheco was a second baseman in college, a catcher in the minors, and made into a corner infielder in the majors. Is it any wonder that he’s not the best defender after all that shifting around? And again, I can’t stress this enough – HE’S A ROOKIE.
So, did the Rockies have a better choice this season? Since they didn’t trade for any third baseman during the season, their choices boiled down to Nelson, Jonathan Herrera, and DJ LeMahieu in the majors; Brendon Harris and Brandon Wood in AAA, and prospect Nolan Arenado in AA. Let’s take a look at the 2012 offensive numbers first (minor league numbers for Harris, Wood and Arenado).
| Pacheco | .307/.341/.416 |
| Nelson | .278/.334/.443 |
| Herrera | .241/.298/.332 |
| LeMahieu | .264/.293/.345 |
| Harris | .317/.407/.507 |
| Wood | .259/.313/.409 |
| Arenado | .285/.337/.428 |
With the exception of Harris, Pacheco’s outperformed everyone except Nelson’s slugging, and Harris’ career major league slash is .260/.318/.383, also a loser to Pacheco. Offensively speaking, Pacheco is and was the best option. How about defensively (full disclosure: advanced fielding metrics are dubious at best. My goal is to portray what they actually did, not what they might have done in comparison with what other players might have done)?
| Pacheco | .946 fielding (9 errors in 172 chances) |
| Nelson | .931 fielding (10 errors in 145 chances) |
| Herrera | .986 fielding (3 errors in 208 chances) – 0 errors in 20 chances at 3B |
| LeMahieu | .992 fielding (2 errors in 248 chances) – 0 errors in 6 chances at 3B |
| Harris | .901 fielding (15 errors in 152 chances) |
| Wood | .898 fielding (10 errors in 98 chances) |
| Arenado | .952 fielding (23 errors in 475 chances) |
At first glance, Herrera and LeMahieu appear to be superior until you take into account their lack of third base experience – Herrera has had a total of 38 chances at 3B in his 4-year career and LeMahieu made 4 errors in 22 chances at 3B last year with the Cubs. Arenado is almost dead even and Harris and Wood may or may not be using mitts. This leaves Nelson, who most people have mistaken for a great fielder. Not only has he been worse than Pacheco this year, he put up a .917 fielding percentage in limited time at third base last year. Oddly, this misconception has perpetuated throughout the season; becoming even louder over the last couple of weeks. I have no idea what fantasy land it’s coming from, but I’m guessing they ride unicorns there.
Taking offense and defense into the equation, it’s clear that Pacheco was the correct choice for this season, though not by a large margin. So, what should the Rockies do at third base going forward? Well, barring a pick-up through free agency or trades, we’re left with several different options involving the players above, plus, some options that are a little (or a lot) outside the box.
To start with, we can eliminate Harris, Wood, and Herrera. Harris and Wood are perennial minor leaguers, plus Harris will be 33 next year, and Herrera has proven to be a valuable utility man at best. Now it gets a little more difficult. We can probably count Arenado out for next year as most scouting reports have him at least one year away from the majors. The only way he starts at third next year is if he goes absolutely bonkers in spring training and I mean to the tune of hitting .700 with 15 home runs. Of the remaining three, LeMahieu has the weakest bat, so unless he turns into Mike Schmidt during the off-season, he’ll begin 2013 as a backup infielder. That leaves Nelson and Pacheco, who are basically the same hitter and fielder. Pacheco has slightly better numbers on both sides of the ball, but the clincher is that he is one year younger. This decision is made easier by the fact that Nelson was given the job at the beginning of the season and lost it to Pacheco. But what about other ideas?
Scenario 1: Helton goes to the bench, Pacheco plays 1B, and Nelson plays 3B. Assuming Helton is healthy, this option degrades both the offense and the defense. Even crippled, Helton’s numbers were very similar to theirs (.238/.343/.400).
Scenario 2: Tulowitzki moves to 3B, Josh Rutledge moves to SS, and either Pacheco or LeMahieu plays 2B (Take away Helton again and you can play all four of them). This scenario satisfies the extremists who believe Tulo should move to 3B, but this option will never happen. Do you really want to move a once-in-a-generation shortstop simply to reduce the risk he might get hurt again and increase the risk he plays worse because he’s angry about the move? Yeah, me neither. And it goes without saying that anyone else at shortstop is a major defensive downgrade from Tulo.
Scenario 3: Rosario moves to 3B and Pacheco catches. This scenario has become much more plausible (and frightening) due to Rosario’s inability to catch a baseball, regardless of where it is thrown. He’s allowed 19 passed balls and 49 wild pitches as catcher this year and is making everyone wonder why they didn’t leave Pacheco to catch and teach Rosario 3B while they were in the minors. However, it does satisfy the nitpickers who think it’s critical that a corner infielder hit with power, even though the Rockies have two power-hitting middle infielders when middle infielders are traditionally non power hitters.
So, what do I think the Rockies should do? Unless the Rockies’ pitching improves by several orders of magnitude, next year is a throw-away year, the so-called heir-apparent, Nolan Arenado, is at least a year away from the majors (and the Ian Stewart wounds are still fresh), and the Rockies still have to solve the Michael Cuddyer/Tyler Colvin/Todd Helton logjam at 1B. Given those things, I think Pacheco has earned the job for 2013. And who knows, if Pacheco goes to the same Tulo/Giambi training camp that helped Dexter Fowler develop some power, maybe Pacheco will become the next Mike Schmidt.
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12 comments
Pete
September 14, 2012 at 10:49 AM (UTC -6)
I really like Pacheco. He hit’s the ball to all fields, taking advantage of the wide open expanse of Coors field. He doesn’t strike out much and is tough to defend. He still has some work to do, increasing his walks and power, but he has the fundamentals to be a good hitter for a long time, kind of a Jeff Cirillo type I think. Probably a two spot guy in the order. Like I said, I really like him.
Spin it anyway you like, but his defense sucks. I’ve haven’t been able to watch very many games lately, so it is possible that he is greatly improving as the season goes, but he was brutally bad early on.
1. Left handed batter hits 4-hopper pretty hard down third. Pacheco totally misplays ball, hesitating, doesn’t go down for it on the short hop and attempts to flag it down from behind, very awkwardly, after the ball bounces right next to him. Hitter ends up with double. No error, routine play for little leaguer, pitcher glares daggers, commentator mentions that play has to be made, run scores later.
2. Medium grounder hit toward hole, Jordan steps and dives and ball trickles off glove. Except he had time to take at least another step, he just reacted slowly, should have been easy play. Tulo has to make play and actually gets off throw. Goes as hit. This is the play, again early in season, that caused me to realize that Pacheco’s lack of initial first step quickness and resulting reduced range meant added pressure on Tulo at short.
3. Left handed batter hits end of bat squibber toward third and Pacheco is slow reacting, so no play is made even though most players at least get a throw off. I realize that as catcher/2B he hasn’t had much practice with these types of hits, but third sees them all the time and he is slow reacting to them. Again, limited range.
4. First batter of the game walks, second batter hits chopper to third. Double play is in order, but he can’t get the ball out of glove cleanly and ends up throwing to first for the out. Two runs later score in first inning and we lose game. No error on play due to out at first.
He needs to have much faster reaction initially. Vinnie and Brooks were never known for their foot speed, but they reacted quickly to the ball coming off the bat and made the plays, that’s what we need. Even Stewart could field. I think if they are going to try him at third beyond this year, then it is imperative that he go play winter ball somewhere and work on his game. I still have doubts as to ability to increase range and first step quickness, playing 2B in college just makes me wonder more why he has so much trouble with routine plays.
Brendan Giles
September 14, 2012 at 3:36 PM (UTC -6)
Love the Cirillo comp. I’ve been seeing that too: gap to gap power and consistently good at bats. I agree that errors don’t tell the whole story. Especially early on in the year (before he was sent to AAA), he seemed lost out there. I also don’t think that Tracy did him any favors this year by jerking around his playing time (early), moving an already uncomfortable defender around the infield (more recently), and moving him up and down the lineup (all year). If anything, his continued success with the bat despite being asked to do different things (set the table vs. cleanup) on a virtually daily basis has been the most impressive thing about him.
Kevin Jordan
September 14, 2012 at 3:50 PM (UTC -6)
Excellent points.
Seth
September 14, 2012 at 10:57 AM (UTC -6)
I agree 100% with this, Pacheco deserves the shot at 3rd next year unless, like you said Arenado goes bonkers. I dont expect that to happen but I do expect Pacheco to spend the offseason working on defense at 3rd base and will be improved to where there will be no questions about him or Nelson getting the bulk of the work at 3rd next year. I do not agree with the notion that there has to be power at certain positions, because you can get power from anywhere if you have the right guys (i.e. Tulo as SS, Rutledge at 2nd, and Rosario at C.) I think he is a great guy for any team as he consistently hits well and is a great situational hitter. Now do I think he will be a super star major league player…no. But he is the right guy for now and will be better this coming year in all aspects of fielding and hitting for power.
JD
September 14, 2012 at 11:11 AM (UTC -6)
I’m going to hang you with your own numbers, Kevin.
First, Pacheco’s OPS, right out of your table, is .757. Nelson’s is .777. Do you know what league-average for a 3B is? For a 1B? Higher than Pacheco’s. An that’s not even factoring in Coors, which should raise our standards for all hitters. When you add the fact that his defense is below-average for both positions as well, you begin to understand by ESPN lists him with negative WAR:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/3b/league/nl/sort/WARBR/order/false
And there’s his buddy Nelson right by him!
This guy is on no scout’s “top prospect” list, because nobody sees a lot of growth potential from him. In fact, he’s probably playing over his head right now in terms of batting average. And errors don’t tell the whole story on defense, either. He’s worse than his errors suggest. I know advanced stats are hokey on defense, but they’re pretty glaringly bad on Pacheco! He also fails the eye test. Miserably.
But mostly, you’re making a straw man argument. You restrict the scope of the conversation to “what alternative did the Rockies have in the middle of the 2012 season?” NOBODY’S ARGUING THAT! We all agree that Pacheco is the best we have right now. When we complain, we complain that O’Dowd didn’t do better before the season started and doesn’t have better in the pipeline. We get it, O’Dowd sucks, but I don’t think anybody believes the Rockies can contend just by rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic – aka the current organization. We all KNOW we don’t have a good replacement in the organization. That doesn’t mean we can’t argue that Pacheco should NOT be the plan for 2013 and beyond, which is what every Pacheco opponent is saying.
You tried to talk about next year, but forgot about several of our players! Next year, Cuddyer is the best 1B we’ll have, with Colvin in the OF (unless EY2 holds a job in the OF and Colvin plays 1B). After that, with Tulo and Rutledge, we only have one spot left. Failing other options, that should go to Nelson over Pacheco, though Rosario would be even better. Hernandez disaster aside, one CAN find a decent catcher on the market, and we should be looking.
Retraining EY2 at 2B wouldn’t be a bad idea either, with either Tulo or Rutledge to 3B.
Troyf
September 14, 2012 at 12:13 PM (UTC -6)
JD summed it up pretty wll.
1) his power, especially with Coors as a backdrop, is terrible. He does not walk a ton either. In fact, be ardl ealks. Rosario as walked more times this yea in 75 fewer at bats. (does that put it into perspective?)
2) try to justify the defense anyway you desire. The reality is e is terrible at third. Defense is more an errors. I realize that deensive metrics ar young, but they are a good indicator. Fangraphs lists Pacheco as the 76th best defensive 3b (of players who hav played at least 110 innings at third) This is out of 77 players. Chris Nelson is 66th, but nobody is talking about making him a corerstone of th team.
3) he has little speed
4) While he is a rookie, he is a 26 year old rookie who turns 27 in the off season.
So the question becomes what oes all of that add up to? A one dimensional player who excels in the least important stat on the field. Sorry if you disagree, but ops, obp, slg, defense and speed all top batting average when it comes to skills. Pacheco has a 95 wRC+ Rosario clocks in at 107 for example.
Does ths mean I hate Jordan Pacheco? No. I love the guy. He is a good spot starter, a good bat o have offte bench and if h can get into a long term utility role, he will be a very useful player. He also deserves to start this year as nobody else was ready. But I do not want him to have a long term role as a starter on this tem either.
Now, he starts hitting with more power and gets that slg up in te high 4s? I am ok with him starting. I highly doubt he will get there considering his age.
JD
September 14, 2012 at 5:14 PM (UTC -6)
I forgot to mention age. That’s another strike. As for starting to hit for more power, he won’t without revamping his swing, which he won’t do at this stage of his career with any success.
Kevin Jordan
September 14, 2012 at 3:49 PM (UTC -6)
Pete – thanks for the examples. I didn’t watch much early in the season, but he has gotten better with the glove.
Troy and JD – I am in no way trying to say Pacheco has had a good year defensively; he hasn’t. But, I’m simply not going to site stats that are young and unrefined that only try to estimate what a defender may have been able to do. For me, I want to know if they fielded the balls they DID get to and Nelson is worse at this than Pacheco.
Troy – all I’m saying is he deserves another year, based on a solid rookie season, and you agree with this. This was the entire point of the column.
JD – So “playing above his head,” “he’s worse than his errors suggest,” “he also fails the eye test. Miserably,” are meant to be compliments? I’m sorry, but when folks say Pacheco sucks, or the things you said above, it doesn’t sound like an endorsement to me. It sounds like what it is – a denunciation of Pacheco. You don’t even manage to finish your own comment without contradicting yourself … “We all agree that Pacheco is the best we have right now.” Followed by “that should go to Nelson over Pacheco.”
And since OPS is the only number you chose to “hang me with,” I followed that link and found that of the 40 players listed there, Pacheco ranked 13th. Almost your entire comment is based on conjecture and guessing and the link you sent me puts Pacheco in the upper half of NL third baseman by OPS (we can argue the merits of WAR , another stat seeking to estimate shoulds and coulds and not dids, another time). So I’ll ask bluntly, how can you so easily dismiss Pacheco when he’s just a rookie with a solid season?
JD
September 14, 2012 at 5:24 PM (UTC -6)
None of those quotes were meant to be compliments – I don’t see how you thought they were. It is a denunciation. I did not contradict myself – Pacheco has been the best we’ve had at stretches. There was the early season when Nelson hit terribly, all the time Nelson was on the DL, and now, with EY2, Cuddyer, and Helton out, where we have Pacheco at 1B and Colvin in the OF. It is inaccurate to say that in preferring Nelson at 3B for NEXT year, I contradicted my statement about playing Pacheco THIS year.
My compliment to Pacheco is that he’s overachieving, which takes effort. That is my only compliment.
As for the ESPN link, it lists all 3Bs, regardless of number of ABs. Taking the OPS of guys with 40 plate appearances is hardly relevant. In fact, what’s impressive is that Pacheco’s WAR is lower than that of guys who have 40 ABs and hit .100 in them (that’s a testament to being below average for an extended period of time). A true MLB average for players at a given position will be influenced most by the guys with the most ABs, not weighed down by AAA scrubs. Those averages are higher than Pacheco’s numbers.
In short, I rate Pacheco on his performance, and his performance is “26-year-old with inside-out swing, no power, no plate discipline, no speed, and the defensive profile of a designated hitter. But he does hit a lot of line drives!”
Buying the crap O’Dowd sells us is the path to continued mediocrity. Pacheco is an O’Dowd “prospect”. We should not go into next season expecting him to start anywhere. He should be a utility player.
Kevin Jordan
September 14, 2012 at 6:02 PM (UTC -6)
Sarcasm, buddy. It’s quite obvious what you thought. You’re complete refusal to even allow the possibilty Pacheco improves is astounding. Try guessing who the following stats belong to.
Age 23 Season – .502 OPS, -1.0 WAR
Age 24 Season – .405 OPS, -0.3 WAR
Age 25 Season – .755 OPS, -1.2 WAR
Age 26 Season – .753 OPS, -0.8 WAR
Age 27 Season – .718 OPS, -0.2 WAR
Age 28 Season – .757 OPS, 2.8 WAR
Age 29 Season – .995 OPS, 6.6 WAR
Age 30 Season – 1.055 OPS, 7.7 WAR
Age 31 Season – .885 OPS, 3.2 WAR
After five years, I’m guessing scouts were saying the same thing about this guy – utility player at best. The Rockies aren’t going to make any outlandish trades or free agent signings, so Pacheco deserves a chance to grow and prove that he can get better, especially since he’s had ONE season in the majors. And this has nothing to do with DOD; it’s an objective look at current players.
By the way, that player above – Jose Bautista.
Anonymous
September 14, 2012 at 8:39 PM (UTC -6)
The real problem there Kevin is that Bautista is a statistical freak. He’s an outlier, not a normal player. He always had raw power, nobody could figure out why he wan’t hitting for it. A change of scenery did the trick, but you won’t find lots of guys who replicate his data. Pacheco has never hit for power and it isn’t likely he will not. Also, even with Bautista, look at how he was in the bigs a full 3 years before Pacheco was.
My dream scenario for Pacheco would be to see him become the utility guy next year. That means having options ahead of him at both third and first. Again, it doesn’t mean I don’t like him, I just don’t see him being a long term starter on a good team. As for defense, he might get better, but I doubt it. I know Ned will fire questions at me now, I’ll go ahead and answer them before he starts:
why do I think Rosario deserves a shot to improve his poor d? he’s 23, he does one thing VERY well at his position (the arm), and his bat is WELL above average at the position. In the second half, he’s sixth in the league in OPS for everyday catchers. Think about that one for a second.
Pacheco is bad and is 26 (soon to be 27) He doesn’t do any specific thing very well outside of hit for average. I will LOVE Pacheco as a player in a utility role, I will LIKE a Pacheco if he is the everyday guy and we don’t have any other options. I will HATE Pacheco if he’s starting over a more deserving player or if the team decides to make him a cornerstone and delays the progress of better options so they can continue to watch Pacheco his .312 with no peripherals.
JD
September 15, 2012 at 12:35 AM (UTC -6)
Well, the Rockies have a lot of crappy players in their mid-20s, so good news! They’re all going to be Bautistas!
You can have your lotto ticket. I’d rather try something with better odds.