There have been a few pieces recently on Wilin Rosario and his chances of winning the National League Rookie of the Year award.
First we have this piece from Jon Heyman on CBS.com which includes this gem of a quote from Dan O’Dowd:
“He caught one of the worst pitching staffs in the history of the game,” O’Dowd pointed out. “There’s certainly room for growth, but somebody needs to cut this kid a break.”
(While I would love to jump all over this quote this is not what I am writing about today.)
Second we have Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com chiming in on Rosario’s chances to win the award.
Both of these pieces list some of the arguments detractors provide when discussing Rosario’s candidacy, but first I want to go over the glaring positives. Everything below will be National League only, obviously. If you are trying to figure out why I leave out Mike Trout from any of the stats below you should probably just close your browser and go back to doing something non-baseball related. It is easiest to compare Rosario to the two main offensive candidates for the NL ROY award: Todd Frazier and Bryce Harper. Wade Miley certainly has a stake in the fire but comparing hitters to pitchers is tough. I will touch more on Miley at the end.
Pros:
- Rosario has 27 home runs and that is eight more than Harper and nine more than Frazier.
- Rosario has about 170 fewer plate appearances than Harper and 54 fewer than Frazier.
- Rosario’s slugging percentage is over 100 points higher than Harper and 40 points higher than Fraizer.
- Rosario’s OPS+ (factors in park, competition, etc) is 112 which is basically the same as Harper’s 108 and Frazier’s 119. This, to me, eliminates the “Coors Field” argument, but we will discuss that in the cons below.
- Rosario doesn’t walk too much but his on-base percentage is only ~20 points lower than both Frazier and Harper (and fewer plate appearances).
- Rosario also has fewer strikeouts than both Harper and Frazier (and fewer plate appearances).
- According to Fangraphs WAR Rosario is nearly identical in value to Harper and only about 1.5 wins lower than Frazier.
- According to Baseball-Reference WAR Rosario is nearly identical in value to Frazier and about 2 wins lower than Harper.
- So maybe, when using WAR which takes into account base running, defense, offense, park factors, etc, Rosario is just as valuable as both Harper and Frazier. WAR is not as concrete of a stat as, say, on-base percentage, but it gives us a great starting point on a player’s value. And depending on which WAR you use Rosario compares equally to either Frazier or Harper. Many would say that Harper is much more valuable on the base paths than Rosario but according to Fangraphs Rosario is actually better running the bases. I think the value in defense of Harper over Rosario is clear, but the game is also played at the plate and Rosario has clearly been better at the plate than Harper this year in fewer at-bats.
Cons:
- In Heyman’s piece it is mentioned that Rosario is the catcher for a poor pitching staff. This is just dumb if any of the blame for the Rockies poor pitching in 2012 is put on Rosario. It has been proven many times over that the catcher behind the plate does not affect the pitcher. I think it is clear to anyone who actually wants to look that the Rockies pitching staff was bad before 2012, not just this year.
Home road splits aka the “Coors Field” argument for offensive players. Rosario’s home/road OPS is .960/.747. Harpers home/road OPS is .829/.731…gee…awfully similar to Rosario… But the real head scratcher is Frazier’s home/road OPS: .777/.906. That’s right, Frazier is a beast on the road and average at home, the opposite of Rosario and Harper. This is especially strange considering Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati is a notorious hitter’s park. In 2012 Coors Field is second in homers and GABP is third. Sure Coors Field routinely leads the league in runs scored but GABP is almost always in the top third in the league in runs scored. The fact that Frazier hits better on the road has to be a blip in what will eventually be his career stats. Even an all-time great like Chipper Jones, in his career, has a .977 OPS at home and .722 on the road. It is not uncommon for ANY ballplayer to hit better at home, by a significant margin and I am getting sick of it being used against Rockies players only because of Coors Field.- Finally the biggest con against Rosario is his defense and it is shown mostly in the number of passed balls he has allowed this year. The Rockies are third in baseball in walks allowed per nine innings and first in wild pitches (not passed balls, wild pitches). It isn’t an easy staff to catch because this staff has no control. None. Zip. Zero. Zilch. It is hard to defend Rosario when watching the games, but this staff is so bad that any catcher would allow a fair amount of passed balls when trying to catch this group of AA pitchers. O’Dowd actually has a decent comment about this, too:
“He has had to catch a lot of young pitchers and a staff that has struggled as a whole. He has gotten progressively better, and when you have to catch 190-plus pitches in a game and block 16 balls in the dirt, your defensive numbers may be a little skewed.’’
- Finally, overall team performance was mentioned in one of the pieces. This is just ludicrous. Just because the Rockies suck should have ZERO bearing on whether or not Rosario should win the award. Just like deciding who should win the MVP shouldn’t be limited to only playoff teams determining who wins the Rookie of the Year award should be based solely on the player. In fact, if anything, the player who plays on the bad team with good stats should get a BUMP in chance to win because he has no help around him. This is where using runs, RBIs, etc to judge a player is really dumb because obviously the guy on the team that wins more will score more runs and knock in more runs: he has quality players around him getting on-base.
I truly think Rosario deserves the Rookie of the Year award. A catcher who might approach 30 home runs by season’s end in just about 120 games played is worthy. Harper has all the hype, he basically won the ROY award when he was drafted because of all the hype. A 19 year old playing in the big leagues?! He must be good, let’s give him the award. While Harper’s defense is clearly better than Rosario’s (they both play a premier defensive position) Rosario makes up for it at the plate (and on the bases according to Fangraphs).
As for Miley I think he was probably the front runner after the first half. He posted a 3.04 ERA, .662 OPS against and a 1.093 WHIP in the first half of the season. He has tapered off, just a bit, in the second half in posting a 3.50 ERA, .703 OPS against and 1.275 WHIP. These are still very, very good numbers. Honestly I wouldn’t blink if he won the award over the three guys primarily discussed above. I tend to favor hitters for awards like this because Miley has played in 183 innings in 2012 while Rosario has caught 813 innings of baseball. Which is more valuable? 183 innings of work or 813?
If I had a vote I would put Rosario first, Miley second and Frazier third. In looking at the statistics I don’t think Harper even makes my top three. The kid is just that, a kid. He is most likely going to be a perennial All-Star and will most likely have the better career out of the four guys discussed here, but in 2012 I think he has been the least valuable out of the bunch.
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27 comments
RockedUp
September 26, 2012 at 8:47 AM (UTC -6)
Which came first, the chicken or the egg? Bad catching defense or horrendous pitching?
There is no doubt that the Rockies pitching staff has been a disaster, especially the rotation. However, they have been made to look even worse with an historically bad team defense behind them, and Rosario is the worst defender of the lot. Dan O’Dowd can make all the excuses he wants to promote Wilin’s ROY chances (and is he ever good at making excuses!), but there is no glossing over the 21 passed balls and bushels of wild pitches. Also, Rosario has airmailed more than his fair share of throws to second recently, actually regressing in that department.
All that said, he’s a credible ROY candidate and I would think he’s deserving if he wins it. Ryan Braun beat out Tulo with laughable defense at 3rd base. He required a position switch to leftfield. Rosario actually could be switched to LF too and has the speed to play in the outfield, but I think we give him a chance to work on his defense in the offseason and see if he improves in 2013 behind the dish before considering a position switch.
JD
September 26, 2012 at 10:07 AM (UTC -6)
This article is a huge REACH.
It cites WAR, but tries to make it into a positive for Rosario even though it’s not. Rosario is behind in WAR, and 1.5 wins is HUGE, not “only”. Similarly, 20 points of OBP is significant.
The rest of the article explains why Rosario’s not as far behind as he looks in various categories. You don’t win awards by being “not that far behind” your competitors.
Rosario has nice potential, but this year, hitting home runs is the only thing he does exceptionally, and it doesn’t cover his warts enough to make him a good candidate.
Now, let’s talk about that O’Dowd quote…
Travis Lay
September 26, 2012 at 10:26 AM (UTC -6)
I wouldn’t call it a HUGE reach…
If you use BR.com WAR than Rosario is equal to Frazier
If you use Fangraphs WAR than Rosario is equal to Harper
Which do you use? To me it shows that the three are pretty darn close…
As far OBP, all Rosario needs is about 8 more times on base to be equal to Harper and Frazier. 4 walks and 4 hits. 6 walks and 2 hits. 8 more hits. Whatever. That isn’t a lot when we are talking about 130 times on-base already. It isn’t like Rosario is right near .300 OBP and Harper and Frazier are closer to .350. 20 points over a full season in OBP isn’t that much.
JD
September 27, 2012 at 1:45 PM (UTC -6)
Your argument is still that he’s “only a little” behind. Since when does that win?
Travis Lay
September 27, 2012 at 1:52 PM (UTC -6)
Since when does OBP factor into the MVP award? It should, but it rarely does.
Pete
September 26, 2012 at 11:24 AM (UTC -6)
ROY is fun to discuss but doesn’t mean much. Your stats are fine, but the voting is rediculously biased toward media attention and hype. Harper was put into the ALL-STAR game for crying out loud! The low point of embarassment for baseball in my opinion. Barring career ending injury, the media will hype Harper to a minimum of 15 AS appearances, 10 GGs, a first ballot HOF election and 5 MVPs. Or overhype I should say.
But ignore all that, its just me spouting off cause I hate the hype. Let’s talk of Rosario’s defense or lack thereof. It’s awful, but I think maybe I have an explanation. Here me out. While coaching baseball a few years back, we had a young catcher that was a good bat, decent behind the plate. One game, he can’t catch anything, pitches are just going thru him at random. Is he sick? Says no. Hurt? Girlfriend problems?, schoolwork? Seems distracted but who knows. Game goes on and he just keeps getting worse, finally we have to pull him from behind the plate and sit him down, I talk to him, nothing seems wrong. His Dad shows up at game and speaks with him briefly, then comes over to me and tells me he hasn’t taken his ADHD meds today, and this is typical reaction when he doesn’t. I still remember that game every time I see a PB go thru Rosario (not all of them are in the dirt, some he just misses). And I wonder if he has ever been tested for ADHD. Seriously, it would explain why someone of his ability has problems catching the ball. It would certainly be worth it for the ROX to check.
TroyF
September 26, 2012 at 6:05 PM (UTC -6)
I do not think he’s the rookie of the year. Miley likely deserves it.
That said, there is another pro you didn’t mention. Look at his second half numbers. .307/.354/.570/.924
The kid is getting better. Remember when I said he had 40 HR power? How many people here agreed at the time? Anyone have an issue with that now? His defense hasn’t been good, it also hasn’t been as bad as people think. He’s one weak link of a defensive effort that has been horrible all year.
Pacheco is the worst 3B in the league. Cargo has been terrible. SS has been an abomination this year. Rosario has been bad, but he isn’t alone. The Rockies pitchers actually pitch better with him behind the plate and have from the first game on.
Oh, and he’s 23 and the Rockies have him under control for 5 more years at a cheap salary.
One of the truly bright spots of this organization this year, yet we have plenty of people who act as though he’s what’s wrong with this team. I don’t get it.
Kevin Jordan
September 26, 2012 at 6:36 PM (UTC -6)
No argument here, especially regarding Harper. He’s been decent, but definitely not ROY. We definitely need to talk about those 2 DOD quotes (also, we should be saving these in some kind of folder for future reference and derision). First quote – why are we cutting him slack? What does catching a terrible pitching staff have to do with anything? Regardless of how many pitches are being hit, Rosario still needs to actually catch the ones that aren’t. The break we are cutting him is allowing him to redeem himself in 2013.
Second quote – is DOD even watching the games? 190+ pitches per game? Does he think the Rockies play 11-12 inning games every day? Even before doing the math, this number is obviously preposterous. If we do the math, they average 152 pitches per game. Plus, 62% of the pitches are fastballs, meaning 48 pitches are off-speed types. 16 balls in the dirt (fastballs rarely go in the dirt) means 1/3 of off speed pitches go in the dirt. Um….no; not even Rockies pitchers are that bad (disclaimer: I couldn’t find any stats tracking the number of pitches that hit the ground).
You’re definitely being too kind to Rosario on the defensive end. He’s allowed 59 WP in 98 games – more than all but three other TEAMS (in 154 games). And there’s nothing to suggest Rockies pitchers are any wilder than other teams. Their pitches per PA is 3.85, right at league average. Their walks are high, but not anything crazy, especially if you take into account their unusually high number of IBB (59 to a league average in the low 40′s). They even throw a higher number of fastballs than the average team (more fangraphs calculations), which means he should have relatively fewer WP. Toss in his 20 PB and 13 errors so far and there is no way this is possibly the fault of a young pitching staff.
The correct thing to say should have been: “Rosario is very disappointed in his performance behind the plate and is determined to improve over the off-season and turn that into a better 2013 season.” Seriously, how hard is that? If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it’s probably a duck.
Dennis
September 26, 2012 at 9:14 PM (UTC -6)
Could it be that Rosario, like Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn, simply needs a pair of those thick- rimmed glasses, the ones that we often referred to in the military as BCG’s ( birth control glasses?) With apologies to Willie Mays Hayes, it might be “….that important.”
Logan Burdine
September 27, 2012 at 2:15 PM (UTC -6)
I’m not going to throw out the Coors Field thing bc it’s lazy, but Wilin’s splits are worth noting. I’m going with Harper here, not because he’s hit significantly better, but because the offense is comparable and Harper’s D is far superior.
I’m not one to champion a positional move for Rosario — moving him elsewhere cheapens his bat — but his defense was a pretty large problem all year and needs to improve immediately. I don’t think we should just look at offense when voting for these awards. But, I will say this, if you are going off just offense alone, Rosario should be the winner. So, when these BBWAA guys start giving reasons they voted Harper ROY, I better hear something about the D.
TroyF
September 28, 2012 at 8:15 AM (UTC -6)
I’m not sure if anyone but me has noticed. . . Rosario is a sensational offensive player whose bat would be highly regarded at any position. In fact, I’d argue it’s wasted more at catcher because he has to sit every fifth day and the damage it will do to his knees isn’t worth it.
One thing I get VERY frustrated by with Rockies players is home/road splits. I want you guys to think about something for a second:
The Rockies play 27 road games a year in SD, LA and SF. What are those three parks? Maybe three of the toughest parks in the league to hit and score runs? That’s over 25% of their road games in difficult parks to hit.
I’d argue that there isn’t another team in baseball who has to deal with a situation like that. The balance in the west goes from great hitting parks to three brutal parks to hit in. Anyone not in the West gets to hit in those parks 10 times a year (or less if they rest) That’s 17 games fewer than west teams. If you don’t think that those at bats make a difference, you are crazy.
McCutcheon hit great at Dodger stadium. He went 5/25 in SF and SD with no extra base hits. If he would have hit better in those parks, he’d be a lock for MVP now.
Logan Burdine
September 28, 2012 at 8:38 AM (UTC -6)
To say that the Rockies only hit poorly when the go to SF, LA, and SD is off base. Sure, that’s a factor in their splits, but this team doesn’t hit well on the road. I don’t think it should be held against them, but it is what it is. It’s obviously an adjustment every time they leave Colorado.
As far as Rosario, I don’t think I’m ready to label him as a “sensational offensive player”. He had a very good rookie season. Let’s see if he can continue to develop, but there is still much work to be done on his approach at the plate. If that walk rate goes up some, then I’ll be ready to label him as sensational.
However, moving him should be a last resort. His line plays out a lot better at catcher than it does at first base. He’d be an above average hitting first baseman, whereas he has a chance to be an elite offensive catcher. He is just more valuable if they can keep him behind the dish.
JD
September 28, 2012 at 3:24 PM (UTC -6)
That’s only if we have a first baseman who’s a BETTER hitter than Rosario. We don’t.
Get that positional crap out of your head and think simply here. If you have two hitters, and one can play 162 games, and the other will play barely 110 games, then you want the better one to play the 162. It’s that simple.
Of course, differences on defense could swing that argument, but in this case, defense is another reason to move Rosario. His catching has been terrible.
I find it reasonable to believe that we could train Pacheco to be a better defensive catcher than Rosario, given a solid offseason, and move Rosario to 1B without changing the roster. That would improve our offense AND defense.
Logan Burdine
September 28, 2012 at 6:34 PM (UTC -6)
Have you seen Pacheco catch? They tried that for two years in the minors. There is a reason he is emergency use only now.
I’m well aware of Rosario’s defensive issues, but their best offensive lineup is Cuddyer at first, Colvin in right, and Rosario behind the dish. They’re playing Cuddyer if he’s healthy and he hurts them the least at first.
Beyond that, they dealt Iannetta because they were committing to Rosario’s development. One season is too quick to throw in the towel.
Of course, you go outside for help. I think the roster could use a little change.
Logan Burdine
September 28, 2012 at 6:37 PM (UTC -6)
Also, it is just a lot easier to find a productive first baseman than a productive catcher. Call it positional crap if you want, but quality offensive catchers are hard to find. That’s a fact.
TroyF
September 28, 2012 at 8:54 PM (UTC -6)
Don’t underestimate those three stadiums. This year is a little bit of an anamoly as the impact hasn’t been huge.
Last year the Rockies averaged 2.92 runs per game in the 27 games in those three parks. They averaged 4 runs a game in all other road games.
It’s a huge hinderence and should always be looked at when you consider the Rockies road “woes”
Look, people can say what they want and we can all have our opinions. In my mind, Rosario is a sensational hitter. He’s a 23 year old kid who has gotten better his second and third time through the league. He has monumental power to all fields and now that he has gained some patience, what we see isn’t going to stop. That isn’t to say he may not be a little like Fowler in the fact he’ll be streaky at times, but the kid can flat out hit the baseball and I do think a 40 HR year is in his future.
I’d rather see him playing 150+ games than 110.
Logan Burdine
September 29, 2012 at 7:56 AM (UTC -6)
I don’t understand why he has to be limited to 110 games if he’s a catcher. The plan wasn’t for him to be a full time guy this year. I expect that to change next season.
TroyF
September 29, 2012 at 5:50 PM (UTC -6)
As a rule, only 5 to 7 catchers a year catch more than 115 games. Knee injuries and fatigue usually end up getting the best of them.
There is a reason there are very few big hitting catchers. . . unless a guy is legendary on defense (Bench, Pudge, etc.) the best hitters get moved to other positions to save their legs and allow them to play more games. Biggio is a great example.
Mauer has demanded to stay at catcher, or I think the Twins would have moved him a long time ago. Weiters is in that legendary defensive category.
Logan Burdine
September 29, 2012 at 5:57 PM (UTC -6)
It’s more like 10-15 every year. Go look it up. Rosario is young with a strong lower half. There is no reason to assume he can’t hold up to the daily rigors of catching.
CodenameDuchess
October 1, 2012 at 8:19 PM (UTC -6)
Same reason they moved Bryce Harper.
Logan Burdine
October 2, 2012 at 10:12 AM (UTC -6)
Come on. Moving a 17 year old kid who happened to catch in high school is a lot different than moving a 23 year old who has been groomed as the franchise’s future behind the dish for the last five years. Plus, Harper will eventually win a Gold Glove in the outfield.
I can’t believe people are ready to move this kid to another position. Blows my mind.
CodenameDuchess
October 2, 2012 at 12:10 PM (UTC -6)
You’re right it is not the same and I’m okay with seeing what Rosario can do next year as a catcher. However, when did we sign this kid? 17/18 years old? He’s been getting professional instruction for 5+ years what type of learning curve should we expect?
Logan Burdine
October 2, 2012 at 12:53 PM (UTC -6)
Yeah, 17, I think. I’m wondering about that as well. A lot of people said he was bored last year in AA, which doesn’t make sense to me, but whatever, I’ll take it with a grain of salt.
I’m not trying to say his defense doesn’t bother me. It bothers me tremendously. I just think they need to try one more season to see if he progresses. His ceiling as a catcher is so high.
Logan Burdine
October 2, 2012 at 12:54 PM (UTC -6)
And obviously, any question about the Rockies’ ability to develop young talent is always valid.
RockedUp
September 29, 2012 at 10:04 AM (UTC -6)
Troy, in your comment above you said the Rockies are the only team to have to play 27 games a season in LA, SF, and SD. What about the Diamondbacks? Also, it’s not just “over 25%” of the road schedule in those three cities. It’s one-third (27/81).
I’d like you to post a table showing the Rockies average runs/game, by season, in those three cities compared to all other cities on the road. And you should go back at least 10 years (when Petco opened)
You should do that if you wish to prove your point, and also you should do the same thing with the Diamondbacks to see how to the two teams compare. Now, that would be some diligent and rigorous analysis that I would love to read!
Ned Giles
October 2, 2012 at 11:55 AM (UTC -6)
Rosario is interesting. His offense improved greatly over the 2012 season. He had the eye-popping power in April. Now, late in the season, he is taking walks, and appears to recognize breaking pitches–and he is starting to hit the breaking ball. He has a great arm, and his pop time is excellent. Unfortunately, he is a devastateingly poor receiver. When Jim Tracy, who wouldn’t say negative things about Josef Stalin, finally says that Rosario’s catching is killing the pitchers, even the blindest Rosario fan knows how bad his receiving really is. ROY he is not. But Rosario is a player that the Rockies should work-on over the winter to improve his receiving, and it sounds like that is just what the team plans on doing. If this kid could learn how to be just an average receiver, forget about ROY– he would have HOF potential.
Logan Burdine
October 2, 2012 at 12:55 PM (UTC -6)
Agreed 100% Ned. He could be an amazing player. He’s not right now.