What would Kevin do with Fowler? You may not like it....
With free agent season upon us, I’d like to take this opportunity to suspend reality by pretending that the Rockies have non-cheapskate owners and a general manager who doesn’t need his cage cleaned once a week, and look at how I would construct the roster for 2013 if I were in charge of this team.
For starters, the Rockies have $52M committed to seven guys in 2013. That may sound like a lot, but when you consider the rest of the roster makes the league minimum ($500K), for a 40-man roster we’re looking at a starting point of $70.5M. Last year, the team spent $81M, so even if my fake reality still has the Monforts, I can reasonably expect to be able to spend at least $11M on new players. I’m not going to get crazy and spend like the Dodgers, Red Sox, or Yankees, but I also believe the Rockies could easily spend $100M and still be profitable.
The first decision to make is what to do with the Rockies players who just became free agents – Jason Giambi, Jeff Francis, and Jonathan Sanchez. I’m also going to include Rafael Betancourt, since he has a mutual option for 2013 at $4.25M. Of the four, there is absolutely no way I re-sign Giambi. He was valuable in 2009 and 2011, but the magic and novelty have completely worn off, not to mention a 98-loss team cannot justify wasting a roster spot on a 41-year old pinch hitter. It’s time to move on.
Of the other three, I’m not keeping Betancourt or Sanchez. I’m already paying Matt Belisle $4.1M; I don’t need another expensive reliever in Betancourt, and between Belisle and Rex Brothers, I’ve got the 8th and 9th innings covered. Sanchez has been battling injury, he’s probably going to be expensive ($5.9M last year), and he was arguably the worst starting pitcher in baseball last year. That leaves Francis, who I’m keeping for three reasons – he earned it by stabilizing (at least a little) a chaotic pitching staff and situation (4-man rotation), I know he can pitch at Coors Field without being reduced to tears, and he won’t cost much. Having said that, I offer him a $1 million contract and discuss a possible move to the bullpen (I’ll get to the rotation in a minute).
I’m also not going to offer arbitration to Outman or Herrera, two guys to whom I have no intention of risking paying more than the league minimum. Besides that, the team is finally free of paying guys who play for other teams, so my current salary base is $71M. With that in mind, my current opening day roster looks like this:
Catcher – Wilin Rosario
First Base – Todd Helton
Second Base – Josh Rutledge
Third Base – Chris Nelson
Shortstop – Troy Tulowitzki
Left Field – Carlos Gonzalez
Center Field – Dexter Fowler
Right Field – Michael Cuddyer
Bench – Ramon Hernandez, Jordan Pacheco, Eric Young Jr., Tyler Colvin, DJ LeMahieu
Starting Pitchers – Drew Pomeranz, Jhoulys Chacin, Jorge de la Rosa, Juan Nicasio, Christian Friedrich
Bullpen – Matt Belisle, Rex Brothers, Matt Reynolds, Adam Ottavino, Edgmer Escalona, Rob Scahill, Jeff Francis
Assuming the Mets sign David Wright to a 6-year extension at an annual salary of $18 million (I’m guessing), I would trade Fowler, Nelson, and Hernandez for Wright and a first base prospect. Besides the obvious reason of Wright being a fantastic player, the biggest reason for making this trade is to end the merry-go-round that is the Rockies’ 3B situation. My net salary increase here is $12 million, though probably less when considering Fowler stands to get a substantial raise through arbitration. This deal works for both sides as the Mets get a young, potential All-Star in Fowler, a serviceable third baseman, and a catcher they wanted last year, all while shedding salary in the form of a guy they’ve managed to piss off in Wright. Sure, Fowler’s three years younger than Wright (30 in December), but now I can start Colvin in CF every day (or LF and Gonzalez in CF). I also don’t trust Fowler’s career year after three years of just a high OBP as proof he’s turned the corner, not to mention his horrendous baserunning skills including a low stolen base total for a supposedly speedy guy. I know a lot of fans love Fowler, but I’m selling high while I have the chance and Wright more than makes up for the loss of Fowler, even if Colvin regresses from last year.
With the conclusion of this trade, I can bring Charlie Blackmon and Andrew Brown to the bench and make Pacheco the backup catcher (and super utility-man for the corner infield spots). In order to replace the so-called “experienced catcher” in Hernandez, I ditch the current catching coach (Jerry Weinstein) and hire Ivan Rodriguez to come teach Rosario how to catch a baseball. Heck, he can even double as a hitting coach to augment Dante Bichette. While I’m at it, I also get rid of Jim Wright (the new old pitching coach – Rockies pitching coach in 2002) and Bo McLaughlin (assistant pitching coach) and hire John Smoltz, a successful pitcher who, I believe, would relish the challenge of proving that pitchers can be successful at Coors Field.
(I realize my coaching choices are pie in the sky, but has anyone actually asked these guys to coach yet?)
Next, I turn my attention to the starting rotation. The four free agents I’m targeting are Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, Joe Blanton, and Shaun Marcum, with the goal of signing two of them. Here are the stats that are important to me when signing starting pitchers to play in Denver.
|
Age |
GB/FB |
WHIP |
BB/9 |
ERA |
IP/Year |
|
| Dan Haren |
32 |
0.76 |
1.18 |
1.9 |
3.66 |
220 (8 years) |
| Edwin Jackson |
29 |
0.79 |
1.44 |
3.5 |
4.40 |
193 (6 years) |
| Joe Blanton |
31 |
0.80 |
1.34 |
2.4 |
4.37 |
178 (8 years) |
| Shaun Marcum |
30 |
0.64 |
1.22 |
2.8 |
3.76 |
166 (5 years)* |
* Missed 2009 from Tommy John surgery
I think all four of these guys can be signed for $12M per year; the only difference being the length of the contract. I think all four of these guys can be successful at Coors Field because they have good walk rates and are close to the league average in GB/FB ratio (0.80), with the exception of Marcum. Of the four, I prefer Haren and Blanton because they walk fewer batters, are durable, and both have experience pitching in the NL West. I especially like Haren because he thrived at another hitter’s park in Phoenix and has the best numbers of the four of them. Sure, they’re the oldest of the four, but that just means I sign them to four year deals instead of five or six year deals. The red flags for the other two guys are that Jackson’s WHIP has bounced crazily throughout his career (from 1.21 to 1.76) and Marcum has had injury issues, including the afore mentioned Tommy John surgery.
Now that I have Haren and Blanton, I can move Nicasio to the bullpen (where he should have been all along), and send Friedrich back to AAA for more seasoning, alongside Tyler Chatwood and Alex White. With these three guys, I have options in case de la Rosa continues his abysmal cameo from last year, any of the starters get injured, or as trade chips for the right opportunity.
Now that I have my roster, take a look at the potential starting lineup I’ve created.
CF – Colvin
2B – Rutledge
LF – Gonzalez
SS – Tulowitzki
3B – Wright
RF – Cuddyer
C – Rosario
1B – Helton
This lineup would scare the bejeezus out of every manager in the league, especially if Rosario develops better plate discipline. Plus, the Rockies’ pitchers would be pitching with leads more often, which is always a good thing.
After all is said and done, I now have a pair of very good pitchers to anchor what was a criminally inexperienced pitching staff, a vastly improved third base, a more cost-effective bullpen, no wasted roster spots in 41-year old pinch hitters who can’t run or play multiple positions, a versatile bench with bats on both sides of the plate, and coaches who have actually played baseball and had success. And all of this for the reasonable price of $107M.
The best thing about this whole plan is that it is both tactically and strategically smart. In the short term, it shows the fans that the team is actively trying to get better and win now rather than later. And, even if 2013 is simply an improvement to .500, that’s an increase of 18 wins and puts the team on the edge of playoff contention. With Helton and de la Rosa coming off the books after next year (at $16 million combined), the team can plug in a cheap replacement level player to replace Helton (doesn’t even have to be a first baseman if Cuddyer moves to 1B in 2014) and find another starter through free agency, the minors, or trade (Nolan Arenado becomes a valuable trade chip with Wright signed for several years).
In the long term, I’ve built a team with a solid core for the next four years that promises to be competitive and entertaining, while maintaining a realistic budget around $100M every year and keeping the franchise profitable. When you throw in the $25M television windfall every team will get after next season, there is absolutely no reason this scenario can’t be attempted. It’s just a shame this fantasy has to come to end.
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35 comments
moses
November 21, 2012 at 7:33 PM (UTC -6)
The problem with this is it makes too much sense
BA Baracus
November 21, 2012 at 7:45 PM (UTC -6)
You forgot Josh Hamilton. Rutledge, Cargo, Hamilton, Tulo, Wright, Cuddyer, Rosario, Helton. Opposing pitchers would just start losing bodily function control if they had to play in Denver against
that lineup.
Kevin Jordan
November 22, 2012 at 8:44 AM (UTC -6)
For salary reasons, if I get Hamilton ($25M), I don’t get Wright and now I have a problem in the outfield because I still have Fowler. If I can get rid of Cuddyer ($10.5M) and Hernandez ($3.2M), Nelson stays at 3B, I still use Pacheco as backup catcher, and Colvin slots in at 1B wtih Helton, taking over full time in 2014. I think this works and keeps me around $107M. That gives me Fowler, Rutledge, Hamilton, Tulo, Cargo, Rosario, Helton, Nelson as a potential lineup.
But, you’re right; your lineup would be insane.
Michael
November 21, 2012 at 9:52 PM (UTC -6)
If Guthrie got 3 years 25 million I doubt you could get any of those pitchers for 4 years 48 million especially considering pitchers hatred of Coors and the debacle that is Rockies management/coaching. Also I like Wright but why fill 3B with a 20 mil a year player when it is becoming obvious that Tulo will need to slide to the hot corner just to keep him on the field.
Kevin Jordan
November 22, 2012 at 8:18 AM (UTC -6)
I don’t buy into the notion that Tulo is any less likely to be injured playing 3B than SS. His fielding injuries come from quick movements; movements that he has to use at 3B as well. His other injuries came while hitting. Regardless, he is the best defensive SS in the game and it’s what he’s paid to do. If you can provide an example of a marquee shortstop moving to third to avoid injuries, I’d be glad to hear it.
If I get John Smoltz as my pitching coach, I bet a lot of pitchers suddenly stop fearing pitching for the Rockies. Maybe those four cost $13-14M a year to get them in Denver, but that still keeps my imaginary salary below $110M. Besides, $12M/yr is more than any of those guys made last year, except Haren – Blanton $8.5M, Haren $12.75M, Marcum $7.75M, Jackson $11M – and Haren is coming off a down year with back issues.
(Not to mention the Royals have a history of overpaying pitchers.)
Rico Rodriquez
November 22, 2012 at 1:21 PM (UTC -6)
Why would the Mets make that trade? I like Fowler, too, and I suppose if he played in that canyon the Mets call home he could lead the league in triples or something, but what’s the upside? Wright is their most popular player. Why would Wright sign with the Mets only to be traded to a franchise in worse shape than the one he came up with? What good is Chris Nelson to them? Plus, you want a ‘first base prospect’? Who, exactly?
The Cubs are a team desperate for good starting pitching, and they cancelled the trade for Haren because of health concerns. So Colorado should sign him? Why? So bloggers, and Mark Kiszla, have something to complain about next season? Blanton is terrible, and would be Moscoso-like in watching balls sail out of the park. Honestly, you’d have to overpay any of those pitchers with Neagle-style deals just to get them to come here. It’s bad business. A guy like Marcum or Jackson is more likely to go to San Diego or some other pitching friendly park to inflate their value for a longer deal. I’m also guessing that Smoltz is pretty happy with his life after baseball, which by all accounts means mostly playing golf. Why take the worst coaching job in MLB?
I do agree on moving Betancourt, as Belisle/Brothers could certainly handle the spot, and I see no upside in trying to salvage a broken Sanchez unless it’s, literally, for peanuts. I think counting on De La Rosa for anything next season is probably optimistic, but we’ll see.
I understand this exercise is all just a big ‘what if’, and some of it makes sense, but the fact is that nothing will happen in this offseason. A couple of journeyman picked up, a couple of journeymen moved. This is a team that needs to consider anything in an attempt to right the ship, but with management/ownership involved, we know that nothing will happen. I like the Weiss hire, but, in the end, what difference will it make?
Logan Burdine
November 22, 2012 at 9:32 PM (UTC -6)
Yeah, there won’t be any pitcher of value signing as a free agent with the Rockies. I also think Dex was their best player last year, but no way the Mets go for that.
Kevin Jordan
November 22, 2012 at 10:57 PM (UTC -6)
Crazier things have happened in reality (see: Dodgers/Red Sox mega-trade and Blue Jays/Marlins mega-trade). The Mets are still fighting financial issues and their relationship with Wright isn’t exactly friendly right now. Considering they aren’t close to contending right now, it wouldn’t surprise me if they really do move Wright or simply let him finish the last year of his contract and walk. Plus, if the Cardinals are willing to let Albert Pujols walk, anything is possible.
Anyway, I’m very aware the Rockies aren’t going to make a splash this offseason and pitchers don’t really want to pitch here and their front office is a joke. I even acknowledge said management in the first paragraph of the piece. But rather than bitch and complain for four months, I thought it would be more fun to play with some scenarios than stew on a rotten team. There’ll be plenty of time for that when the season starts up again.
So, rather than just tell me how my idea can’t happen in real life, offer up another scenario. Who would you go get?
Brett
November 23, 2012 at 10:27 AM (UTC -6)
I think a Kevin Youkilis signing is not only more plausible than miraculously landing Wright, but it makes more sense. I think he would be a good fit at Coors and after all the drama in Boston, he may welcome some mile-high respite from the national media. Plus, he could boost his offensive numbers and move over to first after Helton is gone the following year–making room for Arenado (assuming Arenado bounces back this year). Other than Youkilis, I can’t see any other significant free agent signings that would be both financially realistic and have enough of an impact to merit discussion.
**On a side note, would you really want Rosario and Pacheco as your two backstops? Good luck signing any free-agent pitcher with the notion of that.**
Logan Burdine
November 23, 2012 at 4:34 PM (UTC -6)
If I were GM of this team, I would make defense my number one priority. That means finding a realistic option at third, ie a vet like Polanco or Rolen, and making sure that Cuddyer never steps foot in the outfield. Start there, leave Dex and CarGo alone, pray Rosario improves, and Tulo comes back healthy. Defense is the quickest way to improve the entire pitching staff. It was once a point of pride with this org, and is probably the biggest factor in their success in 2007 and 2009, but they’ve let it slip to the point where they were one of the worst fielding teams in baseball last year. They have to get back to that. If they can make a deal for a quality starter or two, great, but those are hard to come by. And free agency isn’t a great option bc they’ll have to grossly overpay to get anyone to come to Coors. So you have to start with the easiest and most dramatic area to fix. The Rays are a great example of this.
Michael
November 23, 2012 at 5:19 PM (UTC -6)
I agree 100 percent with you Logan, an outfield of Cargo, Fowler, Colvin/Blackmon, sounds great. Those are three guys who could play CF which is what you need in Coors. I still would prefer finding a young option for third (what happened to all the Arenado love this blog used to have?) and focusing on creating a quality bullpen. The great things about these fixes are they are cheap enough the Rox might actually do em.
Kevin Jordan
November 23, 2012 at 7:23 PM (UTC -6)
I like the idea of Youkilis, as long as I don’t overpay for him. This direction leaves me more budget to overpay two starting pitchers.
I know Rosario and Pacheco are both raw; I gave that a lot of thought and is why I have to bring a real catching coach like Ivan Rodriguez. I also trust Pacheco defensively behind the plate. From what I saw of last year, he catches a pretty good game. Since I’m giving Rosario another year to get better and I don’t want to overpay a backup veteran catcher, a good coach is my next best option.
Rico Rodriquez
November 24, 2012 at 5:49 PM (UTC -6)
I’ll be honest, I really don’t know. The trade value on all but a couple of Rockies players is just about nil, and if you trade CarGo, what do you get for him? I’m weary of ‘pitching prospects’, because they are such a crapshoot for any organization, not just this one. The coming elephant in the room is going to be the first base position. While I wish Helton would retire quietly this offseason, he’s not going to. If there is some thought that Colvin can play a decent first, then maybe that’s the answer, but I don’t know if he can on a full-time basis. I’m also concerned that he may be just another Coors aberration, and we will see a drop in his numbers the more at bats he gets. Cuddyer would likely be fine there for a couple of years, though. Again, Helton is in the way.
There is one player out there, possibly available, who I would give up anything for the Rox to get. What would it take to pry Giancarlo Stanton off Miami? Imagine him in Coors on a full-time basis. He may hit 60 home runs. There is no other player I can think of I’d like to see come here more. Does Colorado have the prospects available to get him? I don’t know. Toronto gave up nothing, but took on big contracts, which Stanton doesn’t have. If I’m O’Dowd I examine this from every angle; outside of Tulowitzki, nobody should be off the table.
Kevin Jordan
November 24, 2012 at 10:09 PM (UTC -6)
Now that is an interesting idea. I’d throw Arenado, Colvin, and one or two random minor leaguers at Miami and see if they bite. A package built around Pomeranz would probably do the trick as well. You don’t have to worry about trading Tulo or Cargo because Miami doesn’t want the big contracts.
Let’s say the Rockies pulled off a trade for him. They either need to offload Cuddyer somehow or convince Helton and Cudyer to platoon at first base. Or, they could go really extreme and shift Cuddyer to 3B, ala Miguel Cabrera for Detroit. It’s not like the defense can get much worse than last year.
Michael
November 25, 2012 at 12:50 PM (UTC -6)
I would think it would take at least Arenado, Pomeranz, Blackmon (to replace Stanton cheaply in their outfield) and lower minors prospect or two to even get the conversation started. That is of course unless Giancarlo pitches such a fit about the team being gutted they have to stop the negative press bleeding, then the price might go down a little but I doubt it.
BA Baracus
November 26, 2012 at 10:21 PM (UTC -6)
I thought of Stanton, but figured it was unrealistic since Miami doesn’t have any stars left and he us their only draw. This would be the classic case of if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em or better yet buy ‘em. He definitely put on a show when he came to Denver, it would be fun to see that all the time. Coors would get back to being an advantage with Giancarlo, Tulo, Cargo and Rosario.
Mike
November 26, 2012 at 8:30 AM (UTC -6)
Honestly. I know the Rox love Helton (I truly do too). If he won’t retire, then release him. I thought the Rox should have encouraged him to retire last year the _first_ time he went on the DL, and if he refused, then they should have simply recognized a sunk cost and released him then. I know they would really like to some day have a player in the hall of fame, but it won’t be Helton because nobody from outside Denver will ever believe he was actually a good hitter (he really was!). I am fine with bringing in any young pitcher provided (1) he did not walk 4 batters per 9 innings in the minors) and (b) he is not an extreme fly ball pitcher and (c) he actually strikes out more than one batter every 2.5 innings (in other words, no O’Dowd 7th starter specials). If Cuddyer ever plays another inning in the outfield in Denver then that will be too many. Like somebody above mentioned, you could platoon Helton and Cuddyer at first base because both are sunk costs; heck, maybe that would get Helton to retire. One thing you don’t have to do is to convince those players to agree to a platoon….they are employees and should not be calling the shots! The last thing the Rockies need to do is NOT overpay for a mediocre free agent….we all know how well that worked out with Neagle.
Quentin
November 26, 2012 at 1:23 PM (UTC -6)
You would need to offer ridiculous amounts to get any worthy free agent pitcher to come ruin their career in Colorado.
TroyF
December 2, 2012 at 6:20 PM (UTC -6)
This is the Rockies we are talking about. The idiots who still have O’dumb ass on their payroll, the acting “gm” with an office next to the locker room and a manager on a one year contract.
The way to predict what they will do is to simply look at the likely options they will do and make sure they aren’t smart.
So I will start:
They will trade Fowler for ten cents on the dollar. Maybe a mediocre 3rd starter (because that would be an upgrade from all of our mediocre 4th starters). Maybe for a mediocre third starter and a SS prospect.
They will continue to publicly bash Arenado (who played fine last year and should have been promoted in Septemeber by a real organization) and then trade him after his value is at its lowest. Maybe they’ll throw him in with Fowler for the mediocre 3rd starter and a CF who hits 290 with an OBP of 295. (remember, this is the Rockies, they do not understand those fancy stats like fly ball/ground ball pitcher or OBP or OPS.
So what fits? I’m thinking Coco Crisp and Dallas Braden + a prospect for Fowler and Arenado.
Something in that range. Then maybe they’ll sign a couple of bottom of the barrel FA that they can spin somehow. Lets go with Scott Rolen and James Loney. just old enough they can be overpaid, but with enough “success” the Rockies can sell them as character guys who can help us win.
then they’ll finish the lipstick on the pig and tell us to expect an 85 win or more team and that everything is now fixed.
Mike
December 4, 2012 at 7:37 AM (UTC -6)
Wow…. somebody even more down on the Rox than me! In this era of over-valuing prospects, I really hope it is unlikely that the Rox package Arenado with Dexter Fowler….but I would not be surprised in the least if they traded off Fowler for $.10 per dollar. After all, we do need more #7 starters who don’t strike out anybody and give up lots of fly balls!
Rico Rodriquez
December 4, 2012 at 10:47 PM (UTC -6)
To be fair, Kevin Goldstein, a respected scout who was just hired to oversee Houston’s scouting department, commented on more than one occasion that there were many people who had major problems with Arenado’s attitude, makeup and demeanor this last season. He’s young, and was likely disappointed that he didn’t get to make the team out of spring training, but he needs to change that around.
Michael
December 4, 2012 at 12:57 PM (UTC -6)
At this point with the constant stories through their local reporter mouthpieces it seems likely Fowler will get dealt. I would feel better about this if I had any faith in the Rox ability to identify the types of pitcher that can succeed in Coors. The other problem is that Fowler is an above average defender thanks to his range, the players on the roster right now to replace him would be Young Jr. or Colvin, both poor center fielders. If you want to help young pitchers having good defense behind them (especially up the middle) seems pretty important. The other problem with trading Fowler is the market for CF; 15 mil a year for Upton, 10 mil a year for 31 year old Pagan who has never been a everyday player until a year ago, this makes Fowler and incredible deal which is why teams want to steal him from the Rox. If the Rockies are truly in need of a total rebuild (what? last year I thought we just needed some steady veterans to go back to the playoffs) they need to start with the players that do not deliver value and will be to old when the Rox turn it around. That means dumping Cuddyer, Helton, possibly even Cargo or if you are really serious Tulo. Fowler is younger than all of them and still on his rookie deal for several more years, meaning you don’t need to pay him until your prospects are in the bigs and you are ready to compete again. It is the half-hearted directionless way the Rockies front office does everything that makes me sad, angry, and hopeless as a fan.
Rico Rodriquez
December 4, 2012 at 10:44 PM (UTC -6)
Agreed on much of this. Even the discussion of trading Fowler, after he finally had the kind of year we’d always hoped he could have, strikes me as a level of idiocy I can’t comprehend. Which means they’ll probably do it, and get ‘pitching prospects’ in the deal, who will never be anything but middle relievers, at best.
I hate the fact that I still care about the worst run team in the sport. O’Dowd and his lapdog are a cancer. I like the hiring of Weiss, as opposed to some stupid old boys retread, but if they just handcuff him by taking away talent in hopes for lucking into competence, then what’s the point? I have no faith in this team. None.
Kevin Jordan
December 5, 2012 at 12:15 PM (UTC -6)
I disagree with dumping Cargo and Tulo, unless the only point is dumping salary. You’re essentially saying you would rebuild a new team around Fowler. Because of his salary and career year, he is the perfect trade candidate to bring back something of value (please set aside our incompetent management for this conversation). But I also agree that he shouldn’t be traded for less than value (which is why the asking price is really high). Any trade should net an established #2 or #3 starter at a minimum, or something like the Wright trade I suggested. Anything less should be refused.
If we’re only talking defense, there are a couple of options to replace Fowler you didn’t mention. 1) Cargo can play CF and anyone can play LF. 2) Blackmon can play CF and is just as fast as Fowler with a better arm.
Watch Fowler more closely and you’ll notice he often gets terrible reads on batted balls, but makes up for it with speed. I’ve seen Fowler get lazy far too often with fly balls and even ground balls resulting in dropped balls. Fowler has a very average arm and gets run on quite often. Of course those are my opinions based on viewing, but both standard and advanced defensive metrics have him costing the team runs every season of his career. Fowler is most definitely an overrated fielder by the organization and talking heads.
My point is that any trade involving Cargo and Tulo almost assuredly would net negative return, due to their salaries, drawing power, and skill sets – in other words, they are extremely valuable to the Rockies. Maybe Fowler gets better the next couple of years, but he also gets more expensive to other teams, as his salary goes up through arbitration (he’s expected to get $5mil this year) which will decrease his trade value. There probably won’t be a better time to trade him to maximize the return.
Just so we’re clear, I’m not advocating trading Fowler; I’m simply pointing out that a 98-loss team with multiple options at CF should at least be listening to any trade offer for Fowler, the team’s most valuable trade chip.
Rico Rodriquez
December 6, 2012 at 4:43 PM (UTC -6)
Good points. I suppose it would be foolish to dismiss the idea of trading Fowler when, for all we know, he may just revert back to his previous, underwhelming form. But, if they do, I would hope they would get maximum value for him. That’s my biggest concern. I was all for trading Jiminez when they did, because I figured that we’d already seen his peak years. Fowler strikes me as a different kettle of fish, though.
I would never trade Tulowitzki, and only entertain CarGo in a Stanton-type deal, which will obviously never happen. Fact is, partly due to ballpark factors, CarGo’s value in Colorado is substantially higher than it would be in, say, Cleveland. He’s more valuable to Colorado than most other teams.
Kevin Jordan
December 6, 2012 at 9:47 PM (UTC -6)
While we’re on the subject of trades – my general rule of thumb is hitters are a dime a dozen, but pitchers are much harder to come by. I didn’t like the Ubaldo trade at the time because it felt like the Rockies were bad-mouthing him (like they do with everyone; look at what’s being said about White right now), but at least they got a potential decent return. In my opinion, any time a #1 pitcher (which he was at the time) is offered for prospects, you take the deal. As the saying goes, a bird in hand is worth two in the bush. Now that White has been traded (and how the hell do they already give up on a guy who was a key component of that trade, a top 50 prospect, with very little AAA time and still only 24 after just a year and a half?!?!), Pomeranz is the last chance to say the Rockies got the better of the deal, because right now I’d say both teams lost. (And if I could undo this trade, I would in a heartbeat).
I felt this way when the Yankees stubbornly refused to give up Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy for Johan Santana several years ago. Neither did much for the Yankees and they missed out on Santana. Cleveland at least gets credit for doing the smarter move and Jimenez at least eats up innings (not much of a consolation prize, but Pomeranz and White can’t even claim that).
Seth
December 6, 2012 at 10:42 PM (UTC -6)
The reason why the Rockies are going to win the Ubaldo trade is going to be because of Joe Gardner a big hard throwing righty who is a ground ball machine. He was just a thrown in when the trade happened but has put up good numbers and was put on the 40 man roster this offseason, could potentially grow into a starters role if not be a very solid bullpen guy.
Kevin Giles
December 7, 2012 at 4:21 PM (UTC -6)
I think the Rockies made the right move in trading Ubaldo. Ubaldo’s numbers since they traded him have been horrendous. His Ks are down, walks are up, homeruns are up, ground balls are down. At this point, Ubaldo probably does not belong in a decent major league rotation. His WAR last year was 0.2. I can’t stress enough how bad he has been.
I’m not sure anyone in the league considered Ubaldo a number one when they traded him. Only a handful of teams, such as Cleveland, even considered him a number two.
Although I blame the Rockies for running him into the ground in 2010, I also give the Rockies credit for realizing that Ubaldo was done and trading him while he still had value. I would not undo the trade; I think that Pomeranz could still be good. What I would undo is constantly having him throw 115+ pitches in 2010.
Simone
December 5, 2012 at 9:47 AM (UTC -6)
All I have to says is…thank God we have the Broncos and and at least 1 owner in Denver that’s willing to pay $$$ to see his team win.
Kevin Giles
December 6, 2012 at 2:44 PM (UTC -6)
I fully support the Rockies trading Fowler. He is coming off a break-through year, so his value, which appears to be very high, is still somewhat unknown. If the team can obtain a return that is the equivalent of Dexter’s higher-end value, then they should pull the trigger on a deal.
His replacement in centerfield should be EY2, who would bring a defensive upgrade but an offensive downgrade. Charlie Blackmon could also be a defensive upgrade, but I have little faith in his offensive ability, and I doubt he has the speed to cover the enormous Coors outfield. CarGo has no business playing centerfield – he was a bad left fielder, and he would make an even worse center fielder. His winning the gold glove this offseason just perpetuates the fraud that is the gold glove award (e.g., Raphael Palmero winning the 1999 first base gold glove with 28 games played at first).
Now that I’m talking about CarGo, let me say that the team should trade him this offseason, too. In fact, if they were to trade one player between CarGo and Dex, the correct answer is clearly CarGo. Cargo dogs it in the outfield (sure, so does Dex) and mailed it in last summer, a la Larry Walker circa 2000. Cargo is an overrated outfielder who costs the Rockies runs (sure, so is Dex, but more people think cargo is really good…just look at his gold glove). He is a much bigger name than Dex, which would allow the Rockies to get more in a trade, he is more expensive than Dex, and last year they were basically equally good (disagree? compare their WAR stats). So, when you think about it, trading Cargo could mean losing less and getting more when compared to a Dexter Fowler trade.
Kevin Jordan
December 7, 2012 at 10:19 PM (UTC -6)
Does anyone have Blackmon’s times in the 60 or first to third? From watching, I think he has plenty of speed to cover the outfield. On Cargo, according to baseball-reference, he’s right on league average when he’s played CF, plus he has a much better arm than Fowler. So there’s actually an argument that Fowler and Gonzalez should be swapped anyway. Even if Cargo really is overrated, by all defensive metrics, he’s better than Fowler. You’re right about Cargo slacking off – that is inexcusable – but he’s not a bad fielder. I think you overestimate his trade value though – his contract alone means he would most likely return less in a trade than Fowler would right now. At this point though, either one would probably fetch a starting pitcher, so would be worth it (a #2 pitcher, minimum though).
Rico Rodriquez
December 8, 2012 at 9:56 PM (UTC -6)
Eric Young in centerfield, or any outfield position, is a defensive downgrade so overwhelming I don’t even know if there’s a number to measure it. He is not, in any way, shape or form, an acceptable major league outfielder.
I would trade Fowler any day over CarGo. What exactly do you imagine you are gaining by moving one of the team’s only truly above-average players? For what? A ….let’s say it together….’pitching prospect’?
Blackmon is a fourth outfielder on a mediocre team. He’s the kind of guy the Minnesota Twins crank out every year with little to no value. But then I’ve seen people on here imagine that Jordan Pacheco could be a regular major league catcher, which is so preposterous it reads like internet trolling.
If management followed the prescription you’re offering, they would lose 140 games in a season.
Kevin Giles
December 11, 2012 at 8:22 PM (UTC -6)
According to defensive metrics, EY2 was the second best outfielder on the team last year. Granted, the sample size is small, but he actually saved runs while Fowler and Gonzalez cost the Rockies runs.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=19&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
The logic behind trading Gonzalez rather than Fowler boils down to this: They are basically just as good as each other and the same age, but Fowler is cheaper. Gonzalez is more highly regarded throughout the league (yes, this is an assumption). I think Gonzalez would fetch more in a trade (assumption #2). Gonzalez is owed a lot of money, but he is under contract for the next five seasons.
I am fine with the Rockies trading whichever player gets more in return, and if both Gonzalez and Fowler could fetch huge returns, trade them both. This team is going nowhere fast, so it might as well pick up some prospect hauls where it can.
That being said, I am fine keeping both players. The Rockies need to be blown away by an offer in order to bite on a trade.
Pete
December 11, 2012 at 3:49 PM (UTC -6)
Why look at SP that have MLB average groundball/flyball ratios? Don’t we need pitchers that excel in that area. Kevin Correia (Unfortunately just signed with Twins) and Jake Westbrook come to mind. I believe Westbrook is signed for a few more years, so a trade would be required, but I believe Cards are looking to move two of their young bullpen arms to the rotation so he may be available. Either way, we need at least 2 vets with short memories to teach the young guys. I would keep Betancourt, he is reliable and very cheap for a closer (Plus neither Brothers or Belisle did well in their 9th inning chances). Love Helton’s defense but you need more out of a 1B bat. I would platoon Colvin/Cuddyer there and have Colvin get time filling for Fowler and EY (In right). I think we need EY in the line-up, he is electric. He drove that offense in August (There only half-decent month). They say you need a power bat in right, but not if you have them at C, SS and 2B (And hopefully 1B). I hope Nolan is ready to step up at 3B but if not Nelson showed huge improvement. I believe we need a vet to show Rosario the ins and outs of defense. Would love to see Pacheco there, but probably need a vet. Smoltz and all his ATL boys hated pitching in Denver, the last thing we need. Love the idea of Pudge. Fowler also worries me, but would have to get a great deal to trade him. Also don’t believe Mets would touch that deal.
TroyF
December 18, 2012 at 12:06 PM (UTC -6)
There were only three Rockies regulars who had an offensive war of 2.0 or higher last year. Fowler, Cargo and Rosario.
I’ve now heard from people on this board who believe in trading all three. Along with Tulo, those are the only guys who should not be dealt.
27, 27, 24 are the ages of the three players on opening day next year. Guys, 26-30 are your peak years. So we have one guy who it two years from that, and two guys who are a year into their peak year and we are going to trade them?
Look, if there are any Will Myers type of players around, lets light this candle. The reality is you are going to get mediocre pitching prospects for any of the three. They should be smacked upside the head for even talking about dealing Dex.
If the Rockies had brains (and they don’t), this is what they do:
Starters:
Rutledge, Tulo, Arenado (assuming he hits well in spring), Rosario, Cargo, Dexter
Trade Cuddyer for anything you can get. Tell helton he was nice to have, but now he’s either a bench player or cut. Bring in a cheap OF to compete in RF. I odn’t care who you put at 1B.
Let the first six names above play and see what you have with all of them. They certainly won’t be worse than what you threw out there last year. Bring up a couple of the young pitchers and find out if they have any improvement from last year. Pomeranz, Chatwood, etc.
Then if things are going poorly or you decide on some things, make a trade in mid season. (why they didn’t trade Betancourt last year still has me baffled.