If this guy is back and healthy for 160 games in '13 the Rockies will be better.
Whoa! What is this?! A post on Blake Street Bulletin. Say it ain’t so! And one from Travis?? Does he even still blog about baseball?
The fever is starting to catch. I want baseball. Last season was so abysmal I just needed some time off from writing about the Rockies. Apparently about four months of time off. I will try my best to pick up the pace heading into Spring Training.
Let’s look at last year’s roster, which is pretty much this upcoming season’s roster as the Rockies have done zilch this offseason, and see if what happens if the Rockies just stay healthy and the players perform to their career norms.
(All WAR values are from Baseball-Reference.com)
Catcher
- Wilin Rosario: Played in 117 games in 2012, expect that to increase slightly. 1.9 WAR in ’12 but got a lot better as the season progressed: giving Rosario a half win more in ’13. (+0.5 WAR)
- Ramon Hernandez: Played in 52 games in ’12, expect that drop slightly. Hernandez was worth about one win in four of the previous five seasons prior to ’12 but was worth -1.6 wins in ’12. If he performs up to his previous standard (and I understand he is old) I think we can say he will be worth about a half win in ’13. (+2.0 WAR)
The catcher position could increase in value by as much as 2.5 wins in 2013
Infield
- Todd Helton: Helton’s WAR by year starting in 2007: 4.2, 0.9, 3.0, 0.1, 2.3, -0.1. See the trend? He sucks in even years and 2013 is an odd year! He most assuredly will be worth at least 2 wins in 2013! OK, I also see the decline in odd only years from 4.2 wins in ’07 to 2.3 in ’11. I’ll settle for 1.0 WAR in 2013. (+1.0 WAR)
- Josh Rutledge: I still can’t get over Jim Tracy playing Rutledge at shortstop last season when it should have been apparent he needed the reps at second since Tulo would be back in ’13. Let’s assume Walt Weiss is smart and starts Rutledge for at least 140 games at second in ’13. Rutledge’s WAR was -0.2 in ’12 but it is safe to assume he is worth at least one win in ’13 as he matures. (+1.0 WAR)
- Jordan Pacheco: Do the Rockies have a better option at third? I guess not. For all the love Pacheco receives from the Root Sports team he was worth -0.7 wins in ’12 mostly due to a bad defensive value. Let’s assume his power develops just a bit more and his D tightens up a bit and he is worth a half win in ’13. (+1.0 WAR)
- Troy Tulowitzki: In the three seasons before ’12 Tulo was worth about five wins a year and last year he was worth only 0.3. If Tulo is back to form in ’13 that adds nearly five wins to the Rockies record. (+4.5 WAR)
- Chris Nelson, Jon Herrera, DJ LeMahieu or whoever is the utility guy, if all goes well, won’t see a lot of playing time and their contribution to the team will be negligible.
The infield could increase in value by six to eight wins
Outfield
- Carlos Gonzalez: Let’s hope last year was a fluke for CarGo. I mentioned it before in this space that his attitude was the reasoning behind him being traded twice before landing with the Rockies as a top prospect. Let’s hope the fat contract doesn’t diminish his drive. If it doesn’t and he was hurt last year or something then we can look for an improvement of about three wins in ’13 from CarGo. Maybe as many as five if we compare to his ’10 WAR. (+4.0 WAR)
- Dexter Fowler: There can’t be anyone happier to see Tracy gone than Fowler. He should see 160 games in centerfield in 2013. No more bench time and no more teasing him by sending him to AAA. With that being said Fowler has been consistently worth 2.5 wins each of the past two seasons and while there is optimism that he keeps getting better we will settle for the same, high quality, Dexter Fowler. (+/- 0.0 WAR)
- Michael Cuddyer: In the three seasons prior to ’12 Cuddyer was worth, on average, about 1.3 wins per season. Last year he was worth 0.4 and cut short due to injuries. I think he gets back to being worth about one win. (+0.5 WAR)
- Tyler Colvin: Hard to establish a track record with Colvin in his brief Major League career as calling him a yo-yo doesn’t really do it service. Let’s be happy with the same Colvin we got last year, mmmk? (+/-0.0 WAR)
The outfield could increase in value by four to six wins
Starting pitchers
- Jorge De La Rosa: In DLR’s previous years with Colorado he has been worth about 1.5 wins on average. Last year he was worth -0.6 in very limited work. Here’s hoping for the better, healthier, DLR. (+1.0 WAR)
- Jhoulys Chacin: For as bad of a year as many people would think Chacin had (really high expectations going into ’12) he finished with two wins above replacement and not that much worse than he was in ’11 when he was worth 3.6 WAR. Hard to predict him and we’ll say he sticks about the same. (+/-0.0 WAR)
- Jeff Francis: Francis hasn’t really been good since maybe 2008. Last year was his best year since ’08 in terms of WAR and, while I hate to say it, he could easily regress in ’13. (-1.0 WAR)
- Drew Pomeranz: Pomeranz was good at times in ’12 and then plain awful at times. He was worth 1.4 wins in ’12 and I think he takes another step forward in his production in ’13. (+0.5 WAR)
- Juan Nicasio: Another young pitcher and another player tough to gauge. He has looked pretty darn strong at times and I would love to see him throw 150 innings or more in a season and see what numbers are produced. At this point I am going to say he doesn’t add or detract from the value of the team per his previous performance. (+/-0.0 WAR)
Starting pitchers could either add value by one or two wins just by staying healthy or these group of guys could get worse by a win or two. Or they get injured and we get more Christian Friedrich which will certainly help pile up the “L”’s
Bullpen
I am not touching this. The bullpen was so crazy last year with Dan O’Dowd’s dastardly plan. I believe Belisle and Betancourt will be themselves and if the starters are allowed to throw more pitches than a little leaguer coming off of Tommy John the bullpen should be OK.
If we add all of this together the Rockies, with basically the same team as ’12, could win 13-17 games. If they could win 17 additional games they would finish with a record of 86-76 and that would tie them with the Dodgers from last year.
This is all very optimistic, of course. Having CarGo and Tulo in the middle of the order for the full season will most certainly help. I think giving Rutledge full playing time will also be beneficial. As last year, and most any year for the Rockies, the biggest question is the starting rotation. If DLR and Chacin stay healthy and perform to their ability it will greatly improve the numbers from the starting five. If Nicasio can pitch a full season, get a little more control, and continue to throw gas the rotation suddenly doesn’t look that bad. There are a few teams with tremendous starters in all five slots but many would be ecstatic to have three decent to high quality starters in the same rotation.
There is some reason to have some optimism going into 2013!
…I think I convinced myself to believe this on a sunny day if I get a solid eight hours of rest the night before. Don’t ask me on the morning after my kiddo wakes up three or four times, I might be a little more pessimistic.
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15 comments
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CodenameDuchess
January 22, 2013 at 3:36 PM (UTC -6)
Welcome back!
Good post even if it is optimistic. My thoughts…..
Nelson earned the 1st look at 3rd with the way he closed the year, IMO. If Walt Weiss can get the defense cleaned up a bit, 3rd base may not be the black hole it was last year.
I expect Rosario to perform better. Defense is still a huge question but he was great at the plate in the 2nd half and a healthy Tulo should take some pressure off.
I think the bullpen will actually be a bit better. The addition of Lopez and the continued development of Brothers will hopeful exceed any regression from Belise and Betancourt.
I hold out hope that the organization can figure out a way to move Cuddyer. Nothing against the guy I just think he clogs up the lineup. I’d rather see Colvin starting in LF and providing relief to Helton and someone like EY2 filling in for Colvin on the days he plays 1B. Move Cargo to RF and take advantage of his arm. If Helton gets hurt you can transition Colvin, Pacheco or maybe Wheeler to 1B.
My opening day lineup….
CF – Dex
2B – Rutledge
RF – Cargo
SS – Tulo
1B – Helton
C – Rosario
LF – Colvin
3B – Nelson
P – Chacin
Football is pretty much over, bring on spring training!
Travis Lay
January 23, 2013 at 7:54 AM (UTC -6)
I would be OK with that lineup. Cuddyer costs too much for the Rockies to sit him and probably too much to trade him. Another reason to thank O’Dowd.
CodenameDuchess
January 23, 2013 at 11:51 AM (UTC -6)
You are probably right but Seattle was sniffing around and I think Buster Olney mentioned a handful of teams that could use a right handed bat and specifically mentioned Cuddyer. I’m not saying we would get equal value but getting rid of that salary and clearing up the lineup would be worth it, IMO.
A lot of people on this board and others have talked about the most efficient way to improve this team is to clean up the defense. Replacing Cuddyer with Colvin full time is a pretty good first step and would give the rockies the most athletic outfield in the league.
JD
January 23, 2013 at 1:13 PM (UTC -6)
That is the optimal lineup unless Helton’s regression requires Colvin to swap with him. Pacheco is more suited to a PH role given his defensive issues and middling OPS. But he’ll sit behind EY2 and whoever our bench power bat is.
Diamond Mobbley
January 31, 2013 at 1:46 PM (UTC -6)
I liked your thoughts on the improvement possibilities, but if there was a 17 win improvement it would mean the Rox go from 64 wins to 81 wins…. Tha puts us right at .500 and nowhere near the playoffs. Is my math bad or is yours?
JD
January 22, 2013 at 10:50 PM (UTC -6)
Yeah… no. Just no.
It’s no small matter for a player to improve by a full win from one year to the next, and here you just assumed that essentially ALL of the Rockies will do just that. Hey, maybe all of the other teams in baseball will see the same improvement and everyone in the league will win at least 90 games!
Haven’t we learned by now that we shouldn’t expect improvement from every Rockie under 30 just because O’Dowd calls them “prospects”?
Pacheco overachieved last year and will regress. Cuddyer and Helton will trend down, not up. Hernandez is done. Colvin will probably regress. Cargo will not improve THAT much, as he’s still moody, streaky, and stuck on a bad team.
And someone will get hurt.
Travis Lay
January 23, 2013 at 7:57 AM (UTC -6)
I agree, it is very optimistic, but that is what Spring Training is supposed to be about.
I do think that many Rockies under performed or were hurt last year and if they return to normal production the team will improve and I don’t think that is a far stretch. This is still the same team many thought would compete for the division just a few years ago. Minus Ubaldo (which is looking better and better) and this is about the same team going into 2011.
Of course the Dodgers will be a mega force this year and the Giants should still be really good. I think the Rockies flirt with .500 this year which would be a lot better than last. That is if Tulo, CarGo and DLR can stay healthy.
JD
January 23, 2013 at 1:11 PM (UTC -6)
The offense wasn’t that atypical last season, and would have been good enough to make the playoffs with MLB-average pitching numbers (that’s no small feat at Coors…). Yet you’re projecting massive improvement based not on pitching becoming passable, but on the offense leaping into the stratosphere.
If even YOUR optimism can’t foresee significant WAR improvement in the rotation, then no offense can keep us out of last place.
Don’t forget that pre-2011 projections included the expectation that Ian Stewart would have a breakout age-27 season, Iannetta would compete for an All-Star berth, Helton was still a plus player, Ubaldo was a Cy Young contender, DLR and Chacin were plus pitchers beside him, and Cook and Hammel were good by bottom-of-the-rotation standards. The present team is NOT “about the same”, even with your rosy outlook.
You need to respect the full horror that is the mismanagement of Dan O’Dowd. To say we could dig out of this hole soon is to disrespect the level of damage done.
Travis Lay
January 24, 2013 at 11:17 AM (UTC -6)
Debbie downer.
Michael
January 25, 2013 at 9:34 PM (UTC -6)
Travis I really appreciate what you are doing here and thank you for trying to bring some excitement or at least hope to the new year but I have to agree with JD. I have been so let down by this team the past couple years (last felt like the organization was trying to kick me in the nuts so hard it would not just to cause me pain but make me sterile) one offseason is not enough for me to forget and become hopeful. Still I want the Rox to succeed and I desperately want you guys at the bulletin to keep trying to convince me this could be our year.
Dennis
January 26, 2013 at 8:11 PM (UTC -6)
The elephant in the room is still Todd Helton. I think he is done, a wasted roster slot.
CodenameDuchess
January 28, 2013 at 5:04 PM (UTC -6)
He is. But this organization is loyal to a fault and incapable of making hard decisions. My hope is that 1B is split between some platoon of Helton/Cuddyer/Colvin where Helton is only starting 3 games a week and can be the primary pinch hitter on off days and retires at year end.
How awesome would it have been if he would have retired at the end of 2012 and just transitioned into the hitting coach role? Watching the whole team work 8-10 pitch ABs would have been awesome.
Brett
January 27, 2013 at 7:37 PM (UTC -6)
I realize that O’Dowd has a ridiculous level of immunity among the Rockies organization, but surely his future as a general manager (for any team) hinges almost entirely on the development of David Dahl. While Arenado, Matzek, Bettis, and Storey will be interesting to follow this year, I think Dahl is single-handedly O’Dowd’s final career savior. Even with an executive that ostensibly doesn’t employ a front office based on merit or job performance, surely O’Dowd will be done for if Dahl doesn’t pan out.
CodenameDuchess
January 28, 2013 at 5:09 PM (UTC -6)
I hope his leash is shorter than that. Dahl is still a couple years away. That is too long to wait. If Arenado isn’t a mid-season call up and starting by the end of the year I hope DOD is axed. If Pomeranz or Friedrich aren’t solidified starters by the end of the year he should be axed.
Kevin Jordan
January 29, 2013 at 10:51 AM (UTC -6)
I hope his leash is on fire. There is absolutely nothing that can happen that should save O’Dowd’s job. And by nothing, I’m including winning the World Series, as that would clearly be achieved despite O’Dowd. At this point, any success the Rockies have this year will be by accident.
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