Can Fowler hit 20 triples and 20 homers in 2013?
Bored at work. I woke up way too early this morning (3:45) and it hit me like a ton of bricks about 8am. I was literally falling asleep at my desk. I decided to walk over to Wal-Mart and buy a Naked Juice in hopes that the walk and the cold would wake me up. It did, but I need to keep stimulating my brain until beer 30 rolls around and I can head to Dry Dock for their Firkin Friday green chili double IPA. So, why not browse the play index at Baseball-Reference.com and see what kind of fun things we can set as goals for Rockies players? And then see what sort of company it would put them in if they could meet those goals.
Troy Tulowitzki: 30 homers, .300 batting average and 100 driven in.
My first thought is if Tulo achieved all three of those numbers that would have to put him with rare company at the shortstop position, and it would. Since 1901 there have only been 12 occurrences in which a shortstop hit 30 bombs, drove in 100 and batted .300 and of those 12 seasons only six players have done it, including Tulo in 2011. I am guessing you can name the other five…Ripken, Rodriguez, Banks, Tejada and NomAH.
That level of production from Tulo would be huge for the Rockies chances of touching .500 this year.
Carlos Gonzalez: 30 homers, 30 stolen bases, .320 average and 100 driven in.
How many outfielders have reached those numbers in a single season? Six. Larry Walker in 1997, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun (I never think about Braun as a stolen base threat) and Jacoby Ellsbury in 2011, Vlad in 2002 and then we go way back to 1922 when Ken Williams did it (30 bombs then was a big, big number). I think CarGo can become the seventh player to reach all of those numbers in a single season while playing the outfield. I think he can do it easily.
Todd Helton: 100 games played, .300 average and 20 doubles at the age of 39.
This is also pretty rare territory for a guy of Helton’s age. I think these expectations or goals for Helton are pretty realistic, right? Or am I being too optimistic? There have been 21 such seasons like this in baseball history.
Wilin Rosario: 120 games played and 30 homers
Maybe we are stretching things here. Will Rosario even get 120 games at catcher in 2013? I think it would be best for the Rockies if he did. In baseball history, among catchers 25 years or younger, only three players have caught 120 or more games and hit 30 bombs and it is a short list of the best catchers in baseball history: Bench (twice), Carter and Piazza.
Can Rosario hit 30 home runs in only 120 games? If so, then they should move him to first base because at that rate he would hit about 40 a year and not penalize the team behind the plate.
Dexter Fowler: 20 homers, 20 triples and 10 stolen bases
Dex has been given the “green light” by Walt Weiss already, but I am not sure if that is a good thing considering his ability to steal bases (67% in his career). Dex has never had more than 13 dingers in a single season and never more than 15 triples but he has also never played in more than 143 games. I think with enough playing time and with his improved hitting he has a chance at 20/20/10. Of course, in all of baseball history only Rollins, Granderson, Brett, Frank Schulte, Mays, Jeff Heath and Jim Bottomley have done it before. And each only did it once. It isn’t an easy accomplishment.
What other goals should Rockies players have in 2013? I can’t really think of any good goals for the Rockies pitching staff…keep the team ERA under 6.00?? What goals do you think the players should have for 2013?
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10 comments
Carmelo Corica
February 17, 2013 at 10:37 AM (UTC -6)
For the Rockies, the team goal will be 63 wins. But they might have a better chance at Fowler hitting 30 homers and Rosario stealing 30 bases.
CodenameDuchess
February 18, 2013 at 11:10 AM (UTC -6)
I’m not very bullish on the team either but if Tulo and Chacin stay healthy they’re at least 10 games better than they were in 2012.
CodenameDuchess
February 18, 2013 at 12:04 PM (UTC -6)
IN regards to your goals I think they’re a little strong but goals should be.
Cargo, Tulo, Rosario are all 30 HR threats. Cuddyer and Colvin should each get 20. Fowler, Rutledge and Nelson/Pacheco should be good for 10-15 each. That’s potentially a 160-175 HR team plus another 10-15 from Helton and the bench guys. That seems like a lot until you see that they hit 166 last year without much of a contribution from Tulo, Cuddyer and Cargo (2nd Half)
Besides that I just want to see good ABs. If Coors Field is so hard on pitchers then this team needs make pitchers work. I know Tulo likes to attack the first pitch but I’d like to see him work the count more. A friend who was a much better player than I ever was used to tell me that 0-0 your mind set should be 1 pitch 1 location, meaning if you get that fastball exactly where you want, crush it, otherwise take the pitch. If the pitch is a strike, expand your zone a bit, if it’s a ball, repeat step one.
Brett
February 18, 2013 at 12:26 PM (UTC -6)
While a little lofty, overall solid goals offensively. The only adjustment I would make is for Cuddyer:
Cuddyer has an excellant first half, with good home/away splits and we are able to trade him for a B-level pitching prospect. Make room for Colvin to play everyday, allow EY or Blackmon to takeover as the 4th outfielder, and clear salary room from the Cuddyer contract.
Obviously, its not the most optimistic of goals to hope for someone to play good enough to get traded–and it’s not that I don’t like Cuddyer, I do–but this might be the most realistic goal we can set for Cuddyer.
Mike
February 19, 2013 at 12:17 PM (UTC -6)
I like the goals for all of the players listed; as somebody else commented, goals should be optimistic. However, I would put the over/under on games played by Helton at 50 (and might still take the under), and see little chance for Dex to hit those power numbers. I like the pitching staff goal of coming in under 6.00 ERA but still wonder if the Rox are not secretly trying to set the all-time record for most runs allowed, season, team. Of course, if Helton is as cooked as he looked last year, the under is actually good since then (presumably) Cuddyer will be improving the outfield defense quite a bit by playing first base.
Did Rosario set the modern record for passed balls last year? If not, with 120 or more games caught this year he has a real shot….
Goldgarf
February 25, 2013 at 1:52 PM (UTC -6)
Given that the Rockies still play at Coors Field, these goals seem like odd choices. The players listed above all have decent chances of making those goals because of Coors Field, but don’t mean that much if they can’t get on base and hit on the road. (and why are there no OBP goals?).
TroyF
February 25, 2013 at 4:05 PM (UTC -6)
Goals should be very simple. We need O’Dumbledorf tand any minion he ever trained to resign.
OK, serious ones? For the actual future of the franchise?
How about these:
1B – Helton to have a decent year, but not too good. Then retire.
2B – Rutledge to play better D and hit in that 285 range to keep his prospect status
SS – Tulo, stay healthy. Please, for the love of everything holy, stay healthy.
3B – Arenado – Yeah, I didn’t mention anyone else, because nobody else should be playing the position. The quicker the team gets rid of the brainlock the better.
C – Rosario – Improve the defense, make sure you don’t get pull happy.
LF – Cargo – Ummm, how about actually EARNING the gold glove this year instead of just having it on your dresser.
CF – Fowler, a better start. Please, for the love of God, a better start
RF – Cuddyer – Play decent and be tradable by the deadline. That’s all I ask.
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Matt R
March 6, 2013 at 6:46 PM (UTC -6)
Pacheco hit .309 last year….just sayin
GoRox
February 26, 2013 at 10:20 AM (UTC -6)
I want Pacheco to be playing 3rd base. I hope his D improves and Pacheco can be starting @3rd over 150 games this season. He can straight up hit! Not a lot of power but he gets on base. And with as good as the entire lineup has been on the offensive side it doesn’t matter if he is low in the order and someone will be able to hit him around.
My goal for Tulo: Win the MVP. A couple seasons ago he was predicted to win the NL MVP by MANY people, and if the rox pitching improves this season, and Tulo stays healthy, the Rox can make a WildCard run, or win the friggin division finally! And if that happens, Tulo will be getting another Gold Glove and Silver Slugger, and should be getting an MVP.
Michael
February 26, 2013 at 7:51 PM (UTC -6)
The problem with Pacheco is that he does not get on base. He walked 22 times in over 500 plate appearances last year, a slight hiccup to his BAbip and he has almost no value (minus defense, no power). If we want to talk about goals for next year my biggest one is that the Monforts either sell the franchise or get out from under the ODowd and friends regime that thinks one productive player (Cargo) out of the 4 corner positions is an acceptable plan.