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Eight hole hitter?

Given the Rockies recent struggles at the plate, discussing who should hit eighth might seem a little out of place.  Let’s be honest – when a team scores more than three runs only once over their last eight games (and nearly get no-hit twice), the last thing they should be worried about is who should be hitting eighth.  But a recent question asked by a reader whether or not Todd Helton should hit eighth led to a couple of interesting ideas about what the eighth hitter should be (not necessarily who).  One person suggested a guy who can drive in runs, another suggested a high on-base percentage guy who can turn over the lineup, a third suggested it doesn’t matter as long as the productive hitters are grouped together higher in the order, and I suggested a speed guy.  Each of these has its merits, but how do we know which one is the best choice?

To answer that, it’s important to know which situation is the most likely to come up and which of these philosophies applies.  I went through all of the Rockies games played through 5/13 this year (38 games) and counted how many times each situation occurred, i.e. number of outs, number of base runners, and where those base runners were.  Below is the number of occurrences for each situation.

The philosophy we hear the most, especially from television announcers, is that the eighth hitter’s most important job is to roll the lineup over.  While that is important, it implies that we should expect a disproportionate number of 2-out situations in order to justify putting a high-OBP guy in that spot.  However, when you add the number of times that situation occurs (regardless of base runners), it’s 49 out of 149, or 33%.  In other words, it’s exactly what we would expect in a random sample of three possible outcomes.  Considering we can throw away one or two appearances per game due to pinch hitting for the pitcher (assume 1.5 for this calculation), 38% of them don’t apply (or 19).  This leaves us with just 30 appearances where this is a concern, or 20%.

Now, let’s look at RBI situations, i.e. runners in scoring position.  Adding these up, we get 30 out of 149 and we know that’s 20% of the time.  Furthermore, the opposing team is much more likely to intentionally walk the eight-hole hitter with runners in scoring position and two outs, which occurs in almost 67% of those situations (19 out of 30), rendering that hitter moot.  This situation and rolling the lineup over only account for 40% (at most) of the total appearances, so it’s not looking very good that either of those should be the only consideration when filling out the lineup card.

This leaves us with “don’t care” and “speed.”  “Don’t care” is harder to analyze since the assumption is the hitters before the eighth man will drive in all of the runs.  We can use that same RBI situation number of 20% and say that 80% of the time, the eight-hole comes up in a situation that is fairly irrelevant since the pitcher is probably going to make an out anyway.  While this is sort of true, it’s the kind of non-strategic thinking that causes rallies to die and leads to multiple innings a game where no runs are scored simply because not enough thought was put into the entire lineup.  Rolling the lineup over or trying to drive in runs still covers a significant portion of occurrences and can mean a difference of several wins on the season just by increasing the number of runs scored.  It’s also pointless to try to come up with numbers here because of course the better hitters are going to hit higher in the lineup because you want those guys to get more at-bats.  The point here is to try to maximize the output of the eighth spot, not simply ignore it based on the theory that a team might score a lot with the rest of the lineup.

This leaves the “speedy guy” option, which is a little more complex than the other theories.  In suggesting this, I was thinking of a couple of things.  One is that I wanted a guy who could start a rally and another was to have a guy who avoids making extra outs, i.e. avoid double plays.  Looking back at those tables again, we see that the spot comes up with zero outs slightly less than 33% of the time, the majority of them with the bases empty.  If he gets on base, instead of sacrificing with the pitcher (and giving up a sure out), the speedy guy could steal second.  This would also eliminate the need to constantly sacrifice the pitcher, allowing him to swing and potentially get a hit.  Considering the top of the order guys are typically more line drive and ground out guys, it’s not worth bunting him to third.  As a final nail in that coffin, a speedy guy is going to score on pretty much and base hit, so again no more bunting.

(I realize I’m going to catch flak for not bunting the pitcher, but I’d rather give the pitcher a chance than always take the out.  Sabermetrics fail to take into account how demoralizing it is to give up hits to the pitcher.  Feel free to throw numbers at me here.)

Taking into account double plays means considering 32 of those 149 situations.  A speedy guy is less likely to hit into a double play and also has the added bonus of rolling the lineup over.  The problem is that I don’t know how valuable this is compared to the RBI situation and probably is a very low number anyway.

After all of that, I don’t think there’s any right answer as to who should hit eighth.  The numbers show an even spread of appearances for any amount of outs and a couple of solutions are more predicated on run production as a mere possibility.  This brings us back to the original question – should Helton bat eighth?  As with most situations, it depends on the philosophy of the person running the team and unless those numbers start to favor a particular situation, that person’s philosophy will be correct regardless of what it is.  But there’s another aspect to consider.

Looking at the Rockies current roster, they have an abundance of speed guys (Rutledge, Young, Blackmon, and Fowler) and an abundance of guys with a low OBP (Rosario, Arenado, Rutledge, Young, Herrera, Blackmon, and Brignac).  If all we are looking to do is roll over the lineup, Helton should hit eighth, but then we increase the odds of a double play (even on bunts, with the slow running Helton).  Helton is also driving in more runs per plate appearance than everyone on the team except Tulowitzki (Tulo is at .3 R/PA; Helton at .2 R/PA; everyone is below .2 R/PA).  So, the argument calling for an RBI guy eighth is sound, except given those numbers one could argue that Helton really should be hitting fifth or sixth to maximize RBI situations.  And, if we put him behind a bunch of guys who aren’t getting on base much, the RBI chances go down.

Given that information and the current construction of the roster, the most advantageous lineup will be the one with Helton batting sixth or seventh and speed guys in the second and eighth spots.  That is unless you simply don’t care.

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Mets players "warming up" and playing catch in the snow. Thanks to Thomas Harding for the picture.

Besides the eternally optimistic (and smoke-blowing) Dick Monfort, did anyone think the Rockies would end April on top of the NL West?  Heck, did anyone think they would even be at .500, much less 16-11?  This was a 98-loss team whose biggest off-season acquisition was a middle reliever.  Even die-hard Rockies fans were predicting another season in which the team would flirt with 100 losses, never see the right side of .500 or sniff first place after the first week.  In case you haven’t been following the team, here’s the good, the bad, and the ugly from the first month of the season.  You can decide which is which.

The biggest move of the offseason wasn’t a trade, free agent signing, or contract extension, it was the backstop being moved six feet closer to home plate.  This was done with hardly any media attention and will serve two purposes – one to get the fans a little closer to the action and the other to help negate the myriad of wild pitches and passed balls expected from Wilin Rosario.  The down side of this move is Dinger’s head looking that much larger to whoever is pitching the ninth inning.

Speaking of moves, the biggest player move the Rockies made was trading starting pitcher Alex White to Houston for middle relief pitcher Wilton Lopez.  On the surface, this seemed like an incredibly stupid trade, as Alex White is only 23 years old and very recently a highly ranked prospect.  On the other hand, Lopez is a middle reliever whose arm may or not fall off, depending on who you ask.  As it turns out, White will miss the entire season and some of 2014 due to Tommy John surgery and Lopez has been anything but the groundball-inducing, run preventing monster he was being touted as.  Lopez is currently sporting a 6.17 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and been shellacked for 21 hits in 11 innings.  You be the judge on who’s gotten the worse end of the deal so far.

On the positive side of player acquisitions are the dumping of Ramon Hernandez and Jon Garland falling into the Rockies’ lap.  Getting rid of Hernandez and his $3.2 million salary was fantastic, yet somehow the Rockies convinced the Dodgers to throw in $1 million on top of it.  However, Garland has been the real find.  He’s gone at least six innings in all five of his starts and would be 5-for-5 in quality starts if not for a beating from the Braves in sub-zero temperatures.

And, how about that weather?  Due to exceptionally strange weather (even for Colorado) in April, the Rockies spent more time shoveling snow than playing baseball.  Three cancelled games later, they ended up playing two double headers in two weeks in 20+ degree weather.  Naturally, a lot of whiny writers and some equally whiny team executives complained about being “forced” to “play baseball.”  I think I speak for everyone who doesn’t get paid to play a game, write about a game, or manage a game for a living to bite me.

Everyone’s big complaint about the offseason was that the Rockies didn’t make any acquisitions to strengthen the team.  In fact, most people viewed the team as weaker after the Rockies lost Josh Roenicke on waivers and traded Matt Reynolds away.  The response from the front office was that the team would be better simply by getting back all of the players lost to injury during 2012, namely Troy Tulowitzki, Jhoulys Chacin, Todd Helton, Juan Nicasio, Michael Cuddyer, and Jorge De La Rosa.  They said if those guys stay healthy, they believe the team will be competitive in 2013.  So, was anyone really surprised when Chacin and Helton both hit the disabled list and Tulo scared everyone by jarring his shoulder on a slide at home plate, causing him to miss a couple of games?  Nicasio and De La Rosa better stay away from those guys lest they catch the injury bug again as well.

With those injuries, there is good news and bad news.  The good news is the team has survived in the short term without those guys (though any more than two days without Tulo is more than anyone wants to think about).  Jordan Pacheco is proving that last year was no fluke, hitting .339 with a .391 OBP and Tyler Chatwood has turned in two decent starts in place of Chacin.  The bad news is Chacin was rolling at 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.89 WHIP and interruptions like injuries tend to derail streaks like that.  Here’s hoping this isn’t one of those times.  In addition, Helton was heating up at the plate, raising his average from .095 to .268, with three doubles, one home run, and eight RBI in the seven games before his mysterious forearm injury.

Dex trotting the bases

As expected, the lineup really is hitting better with Tulo back healthy and Dante Bichette as the hitting coach.  Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, and Rosario are hitting exactly as everyone predicted, but the surprises have been Cuddyer and Rutledge.  Rutledge is surprising in a negative way, as he is struggling quite a bit at the plate with a slash line of .229/.292/.354.  On the flip side, Cuddyer has been crushing the ball at .316/.382/.561, though this really shouldn’t be that much of a surprise – that’s what he was signed for.  What’s nice is that it’s shut up all the people who screamed that he absolutely had to be traded.

Equally unexpected has been the performance of the pitching staff.  With the exception of Lopez, the bullpen has been near perfect, though people are giving Betancourt far too much credit for his eight saves as he has yet to enter a ninth inning with less than a two run lead (one save came when he entered with a four run lead, two outs, and two on in the ninth inning).  That’s not to take anything away from Betancourt; just pointing out that he’s not exactly pitching in high leverage situations.  But the starters have been the real story so far, as they are walking fewer hitters, giving up fewer runs, and pitching deeper into games (because they deserve to and not just because the 75-pitch count, four-man rotation idiocy is gone).  They’ve already racked up fourteen quality starts against twenty-seven all of last season.  Having said that, Nicasio and Francis need to get better as both of them are pitching worse than their career norms so far.

So what can the Rockies do to avoid a repeat of 2011 – when they started off 17-8 in April, then only won eight games in May – or avoid meeting the 100-loss expectations of some?  To begin with, they’ve already taken one step by finally cutting the cord on Chris Nelson and bringing up top prospect Nolan Arenado.  Nelson was given every chance to prove his worth and earn the starting third base job and failed.  He temporarily fooled people by putting up great second half numbers in 2012, but regressed back to the replacement level player he has proven himself to be.  Arenado is an upgrade both offensively and defensively, not to mention was inevitable after Arenado’s spring and start in AAA.  As I write this, news broke that the Rockies were able to work out a trade with the Yankees, receiving a player to be named later and cash in exchange for Nelson.  In all seriousness, good luck to Nelson; maybe a change of scenery will be a good thing for his career.

Nelson isn’t the only guy they should consider cutting ties with.  If the team is truly going to stay competitive, then Francis should be on an extremely short leash.  Count me as one who thinks Francis still has some good starts left in him, but a couple more disastrous starts should push him to the bullpen or the released list to make way for Chatwood or whichever young pitcher in Colorado Springs has earned a call-up.

They also need to keep preventing runs through their improved defensive play and better pitching.  So far they are allowing 4.30 runs/game versus 5.49 runs/game last year.  Couple that with the offense scoring 5.22 runs/game vs. 4.68 runs/game last year and this is suddenly a very competitive team.  If the Rockies can tighten up their horrifying base running and see continued improvement out of Rosario behind the plate, that ratio will get even better.

Perhaps most importantly, the team needs to continue playing with a chip on its shoulder for all of the people who wrote them off before the season began (including me).  They need to keep the attitude that they should be winning rather than trying not to lose.  They need to do everything they can to give Helton one last shot at the playoffs.  They need to stop using Coors Field as an excuse for losing and make it a reason for winning.  Finally, they need to continue picking themselves back up off the mat whenever one of the elite teams gives them a whooping.  The longer they can do all of those things, the longer the season will remain interesting.  And, if we’re lucky, maybe another snow out or two in October.

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Helton on the left and Nicasio on the right?

“Maybe these guys ain’t so fu**in’ bad.” That’s the thought running through my head, as well as the rest of the Rockies’ fans. When they started off 5-1, it was easy to dismiss considering they had played a mediocre team in Milwaukee and a much worse team in San Diego. After the Giants took the Rockies behind the woodshed for a serious beating, that 5-1 start looked like a distant memory and the bad team we all expected was back. But, then a funny thing happened – instead of folding over like last year’s team so often did, the Rockies went into San Diego and dominated, then came home and took three more from the Mets; two in come-from-behind fashion. Now, we’re staring at an 11-4 team in first place and that thought is still there – maybe these guys ain’t so fu**in’ bad.

After thinking about this line for several days and seeing the same sentiment in dozens of articles, I started to think about the Rockies in the context of the source of that line – the movie Major League. You remember; it happens about halfway through when the guy in the coffee shop says it, followed by the construction worker who adds an F-bomb. And, like some of the more cynical, negative Rockies fans – the two groundskeepers who say they are still shitty. The more I thought about it, the more I realized how much in common the two had.

To begin with, think about the first scene of the movie where the front office is looking at the list of names the owner wants to invite to spring training. One of them says “I never heard of half these guys and the ones I do know are way past their prime.” Doesn’t that describe the offseason and beginning of last season? Josh Outman, Guillermo Moscoso, Tyler Chatwood, DJ LeMahieu, and Tyler Colvin were the guys we’d never heard of and Marco Scutaro, Jason Giambi, and Ramon Hernandez were the guys way past their prime. Now, I know what you’re thinking – I forgot Jamie Moyer in that list. Remember this line – “This guy here is dead. Cross him off then.” I guess they forgot to cross him off.

The bizarre roster building of last year points to the next similarity – an owner who only seems to care about money and a general manager who is basically a well-paid lap dog to said owner. The only positive thing about the Rockies’ owner over Rachel Phelps is that he isn’t trying to relocate the team to another city. Though, he’s not forcing them to ride busses across the country or use motorboat engines for Jacuzzis, so that’s two positives.

(Side note: Is it prescient that the film depicted Phelps as a money-grubbing owner trying to get to Miami and that’s exactly what the Marlins have? Of course, Phelps is tame in comparison to Jeffrey Loria, who is essentially a cross between Phelps and a James Bond villain.)

While we’re on the subject of characters and their Rockies doppelgangers, all of the main characters and even a couple of minor ones resemble those fictional people. For starters, they both plucked their managers from obscurity. While Lou Brown worked at Tire World, Walt Weiss was coaching a high school team, though at least Brown’s resume included managing the Toledo Mud Hens. But I have to believe the reaction was similar the first time Weiss was mentioned as a candidate – something along the lines of “I’m sorry?” Let’s just hope Weiss has the same reaction if the Rockies are around .500 in August and someone says he’s done a heck of a job. Incidentally, it really would be a heck of job. Now, we get to the fun part; the players.

Is Dexter Fowler Willie Mays Hayes?

The most obvious one is Todd Helton as Jake Taylor. Though Todd isn’t the catcher, they both are former All-Stars with broken down bodies. Plus, Helton is definitely the guy nobody would expect to bunt in the ninth inning of the playoff deciding game. Like Taylor, Helton woke up one morning in the spring with a terrible hangover, possibly wondering where he was, though without the sombrero. I can also see him tearing into Fowler or Gonzalez for dogging plays, saying “This is my last shot at a winner…” though maybe not threatening to cut off their nuts and shove them down their throats.

Next is Wilin Rosario as Pedro Cerrano. They both hit home runs that leave vapor trails and neither can hit a curve ball. Rosario actually one-ups Cerrano by not be able to catch a curve ball either. So, does anyone know if Rosario is into voodoo? Have we seen his locker? One thing we do know is that when the Rockies play the Dodgers, they can always ask Josh Beckett for a bucket of fried chicken for Rosario to sacrifice.

Then we have Dexter Fowler as Willie Mays Hayes. The differences here are a little more stark than I would like, but it’s the best I can do. Both of them are really fast, believe they are home run hitters, and give coaches heart attacks with their fly ball catching technique. Seriously, the next time Fowler catches a fly ball down by his chest, I want to hear Weiss say “Nice catch Dex. Don’t ever fuckin’ do it again.”

Another easy one is Jeff Francis as Eddie Harris – the crafty, veteran pitcher who is lucky to break 82 mph on a hot day. I’m sure Francis isn’t rubbing Vagisil on the ball or jalapeno in his nose, but it is a funny thought.

Ricky Vaughn is a little harder to match up because none of the Rockies played in the California penal league or stole a car…at least that we know of. The Rockies also don’t have a pitcher who wears glasses or can throw 100 mph fastball. I’m going with Juan Nicasio here because Nicasio does throw a mid-to-upper-90’s fastball, has no other decent pitch that we’ve ever seen, and, like Vaughn, has issues throwing strikes. No word, however, on if Nicasio is willing to shave the back of his neck into zigzags.

Of all of the main characters, Roger Dorn is probably the hardest guy to match up. Carlos Gonzalez is probably the closest due to last year’s obvious negligence in left field when the season was over, as well as being a high-priced player. This season’s Gonzalez is much more like end-of-the-movie Dorn, except with far more power and speed. Let’s hope it stays that way and he never cheats on his wife.

Finally, and just because it’s funny, Nolan Arenado is that guy who gets cut during spring training. Because we never see that character again, we have no idea if he put up a disappointing minor league season and pouted for most of the year. We do know that Arenado has gotten over himself this year and is currently destroying AAA with a .455/.480/.909 slash in twelve games.

Like those fictional Indians, the Rockies have a team they must conquer in order to reach the playoffs – in this case the Giants. The Giants even have their own Clu Haywood and Duke Temple in Buster Posey and Sergio Romo. Of course, Posey doesn’t lead the league in nose hair and we’re fairly sure Romo’s never thrown at his own kid in a father-son-game. Though, Romo does seem to have anger issues as evidenced by his detention at the Las Vegas airport during the off-season.

Getting back to the phrase that started all this nonsense, if the Rockies were really playing out the movie, they’d be somewhere between that phrase and the scene where Brown unveils the cardboard cut-out of Phelps. Are the Rockies for real; moving into the third act of the film where they gel together as a team or are they going to skip straight to Major League 2 and turn back into a team full of pumpkins? Based on those main characters, it sure seems like the former. Fowler is getting on base and hitting home runs, Helton has exploded over the past week to silence all the crowd insisting he’s done, Rosario’s sacrifices to Jobu have resulted in much better defense behind the plate, Gonzalez is playing as If someone really did threaten to cut his nuts off, and Jon Garland has been recast in the role of Eddie Harris. All they need now is for Nicasio to develop a nasty curveball and this team might just be for real. Let’s just hope they never reveal a cardboard cut-out of Dick Monfort in nothing but a banana-hammock.

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There are a lot of reasons to make a movie. Money, art, to tell a story, money, to bring a serious issue to the spotlight, and money are just some of those reasons. Oh, and don’t forget money. So, when I saw that a new movie about Jackie Robinson was coming out, I started to wonder “why now?” This year doesn’t mark any special anniversary of anything related to Jackie Robinson. He was born 94 years ago, he died 41 years ago, he debuted in major league baseball 66 years ago, retired 57 years ago, was inducted into the hall of fame 51 years ago, and Jackie Robinson Day was created by baseball 9 years ago. None of those mark an anniversary ending in five or zero. It’s also really hard to make a case relating to race, considering we’ve seen sixty-six years of integrated baseball and Barack Obama’s been the President of the United States for more than four years. There have even been numerous films and television specials about him, including a biography where he played himself, so it wasn’t like the story hadn’t been told yet. I thought the movie itself might answer the question, but after watching the movie, the question still remained. The only thing I was able to come up with was a flimsy “baseball season just started, sooo…yeah.” My only hope of answering this question now is to go back over the movie and hope that you or I come up with something I haven’t considered yet.

The first thing you should know is that 42 is a decent enough movie. The second thing you should know is that it leaves a lot on the table. For one thing, like the film adaptation of The Help, it doesn’t show enough racism to really get your blood boiling. At most, it makes you a little uncomfortable, mostly due to focusing on a couple of characters or events and strategically placed n-words. Sure, he has to face several players and fans that call him bad names and others that issue vague threats, but it never seems like he has much to overcome. He just has to get a few hits and everything is okay. Considering the movie focuses on his year in the minor leagues and first year in the major leagues, we should have seen (and felt) a lot more vitriol, hatred, and threats.

Not that we didn’t get some of that. The scene in particular that comes the closest to making you throw things at the screen is when Phillies manager Ben Chapman (Alan Tudyk) stands outside the dugout during a game and says just about the worse stuff you can think of that can be said in a PG-13 movie (actually, that rating alone answers the question as to why this movie is so light on the racism). It’s a powerful sequence that is one of the few times in the movie when Chadwick Boseman (playing Robinson) is allowed to come out of his shell. It’s also the first of two pivotal scenes in the movie’ the other coming during a game at Cincinnati when Pee Wee Reese (Lucas Black), the Dodgers shortstop, shows his true colors.

Getting back to the stuff left on the table, the writer/director, Brian Helgeland, missed a lot of opportunities to make scenes feel bigger. The most obvious scene is Jackie’s first game for the Dodgers. When he walks out of the tunnel into Ebbets Field, he appears to be in awe of the size of the stadium and amount of people there. Except, we don’t feel it with him because we don’t get a good, sweeping shot of a stadium filled with people. Instead, we get a couple of token glances at the stands behind Jackie and the empty space behind the outfield wall. Time and again, we should have gotten these shots at multiple stadiums, showing roaring fans yelling and jeering at Jackie, but all we get are a handful of loudmouths condensed into one section. I can’t stress enough how simple it would have been to amp up the tension with a few more extras and wide-angle camera.

In addition to those scenes, some of the characters felt smaller than they should have, especially Jackie’s wife, Rachel (Nicole Beharie). I think she was supposed to come off as Jackie’s support throughout the whole movie, but she was so one-dimensional it was hard to tell if she was actually a real person and not a card-board cutout. I couldn’t tell how she felt about anything, least of all Jackie playing baseball. The most she ever does is encourage him from time to time and pretends as if racism is just a minor nuisance. This did not help the movie build a strong racism narrative, nor a strong support-to-Jackie narrative. It just continued to strengthen the false idea that the situation wasn’t really that bad which contradicts what this movie was supposed to be.

Where I think the movie strayed the most was that it seemed to be more about Branch Rickey (Harrison Ford), the Dodgers president and general manager, than about its title subject – Jackie. Incidentally, Ford was the best part of the movie, bringing to life (and light) a person who really isn’t given enough credit for bringing Robinson to the majors and opening the door for the current and future black ball players. Rickey is the father figure to Robinson, dispersing advice and constantly having Jackie’s back.

The final thing that was left on the table, as well as completely out of the movie, was the inclusion of the Dodgers owner. How did he feel about the situation? How much convincing did Rickey have to do? Anything here would have added to narrative and given us insight nobody ever talks about.

As I said, it was a decent enough movie and if you don’t know anything about Jackie Robinson, it’s a good movie to start with. They take very little liberty with historical events and the baseball action itself is believable. Besides Ford’s portrayal of Rickey, the other strength of the movie is in the inclusion of the more well-known events, even down to lines being spoken word for word to what was actually said so many years ago. Having said that, considering how well-documented Jackie’s life has been and that the film really doesn’t offer any new information, I just can’t come up with why this movie was released now. Can you?

Rating: Ask for three dollars back. When they ask why, say: “Exactly.”

Besides writing about the Rockies and baseball, I also write movie reviews (at number9 movie reviews). 

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Can Fowler repeat 2012 at the plate?

Note – as of this writing, the Rockies had not started the game played on March 27.

With three games left for the Rockies in spring training, just about the only thing we know for sure for the upcoming season is that the Rockies will, in fact, field a roster with 25 humans; none of which are named Jamie or Moyer. Every other off-season question mark remains, as virtually nothing has been answered by what has transpired during the spring. Who is going to play third base? Is the starting rotation going to last through May before calling the doctor? Is Tulowitzki going to continue his bizarre pattern of non-injury odd-numbered years? Who is the backup catcher? Is this Helton’s final year? Is Fowler for real or a one-season wonder? Is Rosario going to try actually catching the ball this year? Is anyone going to do something to rid us of the scourge known as Dinger?

I don’t have any answers either, but I do have some observations that will inspire both hope and fear for those seventeen fans who haven’t already written the season off as lost. So, get comfortable because this is going to take a while.

Hitting

Let’s face it, the offense is the only dimension of the team that doesn’t inspire fans to start binge drinking. Several hitters have had a very good spring, though not all of them were rewarded with a roster spot. Here are their slash lines:

Dexter Fowler – .364/.417/.705
Wilin Rosario – .415/.432/.805
Charlie Blackmon – .407/.500/.667
Corey Dickerson – .360/.414/.560
Ben Paulsen – .481/.533/.741
Todd Helton – .435/.519/.783
Jordan Pacheco – .415/.455/.463
Eric Young – .340/.385/.383
Michael Cuddyer – .304/.350/.464
Carlos Gonzalez – .278/.426/.500
Yorvit Torrealba – .500/.550/.722

The first thing that jumps out is that Fowler seems to be picking up right where he left off last year. That includes stolen bases, where he still seems allergic to running before the ball is put in play. I’ve said it many times before, but it bears repeating – Fowler is a terrible base stealer and very subpar base runner. In the couple of spring training games I watched, I saw Fowler taking tepid leads and get picked off at second base. But if the guy continues to hit like this, it’ll be easy to forgive him.

Even better is Rosario, who shares the team home run lead with Arenado (4) and seems determined to avoid the sophomore slump. In 41 at-bats, he’s only struck out four times, which is a huge improvement in plate discipline since last season. If he continues to hit like that, he should be hitting from the 5-hole by May and forming one of the scariest 3-4-5 trios (with Gonzalez and Tulowitzki) in the league.

Speaking of Gonzalez, his batting average is a little low, but his OBP is pristine, helped out by ten walks against just eight strikeouts. He has always been prone to swinging at low and away breaking balls; maybe he’s finally learned to lay off of them.

The two guys I have vehemently defended from all of the naysayers are Pacheco and Helton. Another thing I’ve said many times is that a one-legged Helton is still better than the team’s alternatives. That slash line above is from a two-legged, healthy Helton. If he is managed properly and stays healthy, we should get a good farewell tour from the franchise’s best player ever (for now, at least). If this is indeed Helton’s final tour, Paulsen is a very encouraging candidate to take over in 2014, especially given Tyler Colvin’s nightmare of a spring (see below).

Then, there’s Pacheco, a guy who people ridicule as being a one-dimensional hitter with no glove. They’re not necessarily wrong (we’ll get to the fielding in a minute), but I want to point out that everyone wants Eric Young to get more playing time even though the only difference between the two of them is Eric Young runs really fast. Both of them have two doubles to go along with a pile of singles, yet Pacheco receives all kinds of negativity while Young does not. And with Nelson putting up a spring more in line with early 2012 instead of late 2012 (see below), Pacheco will have a valid complaint if he isn’t tabbed to start on opening day.

Besides Paulsen, Blackmon and Dickerson also had fantastic springs, but will start the season in the minors. Blackmon and Dickerson (and Colvin) are the reason I supported trading Fowler for some much needed pitching help, as both showed some power and Blackmon is a perfect 3-for-3 in stolen base attempts. Since we have no idea what O’Dowd was asking for, or what, if anything, was offered for Fowler, we’ll never know if keeping Fowler was the right thing to do.

There isn’t much to say about Cuddyer – he’s doing exactly what everyone expected of him. Let’s just hope the injury bug is behind him and we get a full season of that line.

Finally, Torrealba is hitting .500. That’s not a typo, plus, he hasn’t struck out during the spring. I’ve never been a big Torrealba fan, but if he hits half that, he’s still better than the corpse of Ramon Hernandez (see below).

Next, we have four players who have had a decent spring. All of them display a red flag or two and bear watching and Arenado’s immediate future is still up in the air. Check out these slash lines, which don’t exactly inspire awe.

Josh Rutledge – .286/.300/.469
Nolan Arenado – .288/.288/.596
Chris Nelson – .267/.313/.378
Troy Tulowitzki – .244/.294/.400

I don’t care that Tulowitzki’s average and OBP are low, though they are the flags I was talking about. Mainly, this spring was about Tulo proving to himself and everyone else that he is back to full strength. We talked about Nelson already and he only has three extra-base hits, further making the case for Pacheco to start at third base. This includes Arenado, who started off blazing hot and hitting four home runs, but he’s cooled off considerably over the last couple of weeks. Plus, he has yet to take a walk (against eight K’s) after 52 at-bats, which is further evidence that he needs to learn some patience at the plate or be devoured by major league pitching. He’s not alone though, as Rutledge is also walkless this spring. Luckily, Rutledge is making up for it with hits and some power and he has no real competition at second base. Unless the Rockies suddenly trade Nelson or Pacheco, Arenado will probably be the last guy sent to the minors and will most likely be called up soon for one reason or another.

Finally, we have the guys whose winters never ended and whose springs can’t end fast enough. I’m not trying to pick on these guys, as they don’t comprise the entire sub-Mendoza club, but they are all notable for one reason or another. Look at these slash lines and try not to giggle.

Charlie Culberson – .185/.241/.407
Ramon Hernandez – .182/.333/.182
Tyler Colvin – .174/.208/.217
Ryan Wheeler – .158/.238/.158
Kyle Parker – .077/.294/.077
Tommy Manzella – .063/.118/.063

Colvin hasn't done himself any favors this spring.

Culberson and Wheeler are recent trade candidates for serviceable major league players who are providing further evidence that O’Dowd would have been the best kid to trade baseball cards with. “What – you want to trade me some guy named Chipper’s rookie card for a 1991 Von Hayes? Don’t you already have three Von Hayes cards?” While we’re on the subject, isn’t it time to just eat the rest of Hernandez’s contract and give the back-up job to Torrealba? Or, even better, dump them both, make Pacheco the back-up catcher (see below in the fielding section), put Nelson on the bench, give Arenado his chance at third base, and hire Benito Santiago to coach the catchers. There’s no way this is a worse option.

Then, we have the three guys who are living their worst nightmares. Parker and Manzella never had a shot at making the team this year anyway, but each of them only managed to scratch out one single. I could do that and that’s not even me being sarcastic. And Colvin has to be crying himself to sleep every night. Fourteen strikeouts and just two walks to go with that hideous line? At least he’s assured a spot on the bench, though everyone who has been screaming for him to displace Helton should be really embarrassed right now.

Fielding

I don’t have much to say here, for two reasons. One – fielding statistics are wildly subjective and the ones available for spring training are minimal at best. Two – without being able to watch more than a couple of games, it’s really hard to judge if the defense has improved over last year’s debacle. Having said that, I took a look at the guys and positions that provoked the most conversation last year – catcher and third base, meaning Nelson, Pacheco, Arenado, and Rosario.

At the hot corner, everyone seems to have warped opinions of the three contestants. Again, Pacheco always seems to take the most heat, even though most advanced (and standard) metrics rated him ahead of Nelson last season. Both of them are converted from other positions and basically offer the same value. I think Nelson gets more love solely for the fact that he was a former first round draft pick and people don’t want to accept that he is another failed pick by the Rockies. This explains why he is the likely starting third baseman on opening day even though Pacheco has outperformed him. The bigger mystery to me is how people think Arenado is the second coming of Brooks Robinson. When I wrote about Pacheco and third base last September, Arenado was sporting a .952 fielding percentage to Pacheco’s .946 (Nelson was at .931 and clearly the worst of the three). Over 500 chances, that’s only a difference of three errors. Plus, guess which of those three guys has committed two errors in 23 chances, while the other two men have committed zero this spring. That’s correct – Rosario. Wait, no, it’s Arenado. I know this isn’t based on any of the highly touted and highly dubious advanced metrics (couldn’t find them for the spring), but on the merit of fielding the balls that should have been fielded, Arenado is the only one who didn’t field them all.

In terms of catching, it’s hard to argue that Pacheco isn’t the best option defensively behind the plate (If you thought the Pacheco love was finished, think again). Between Torrealba, Hernandez, Rosario, and him, he and Hernandez are the only two to throw out a base stealer and Pacheco had the least amount of passed balls and wild pitches allowed (just one wild pitch). I’m not trying to make Pacheco out to be super human, I’m just pointing out how underrated he is and that maybe people shouldn’t be so quick to criticize him. In addition, Rosario still seems to be catching without a glove, as he has allowed one passed ball and five wild pitches in 70 innings. As I said earlier, the team is probably best served with Pacheco as backup catcher/super-utility player and Arenado getting a shot at third base. Actually, the best option is for the National League to finally adopt the designated hitter so the Rockies can stash Rosario in the DH role, make Pacheco the starting catcher, keep one of the old veterans as a back-up, and start Arenado at third base (this season might really be the breaking point on the NL-DH holdout, with interleague play happening all season).

Pitching

Now we get to the scary part of the team and the one with the most questions – the pitching staff. As the entire off-season went by without the Rockies acquiring any starting pitching, fans rightly battered the front office through blogs and story comments. As if this wasn’t enough, the team jettisoned Alex White after little more than a year of his time for a middle reliever and guys like Troy Renck of the Denver Post tried to convince us this was a good thing. Alex White is a 23 year-old sinkerball pitcher who was one of the key pieces of the Ubaldo Jiminez trade. Relievers are a dime a dozen and White is exactly the kind of starter the Rockies need. If this wasn’t bad enough, the team lost Josh Roenicke for nothing and traded Matt Reynolds for Wheeler because the team needed a seventeenth infielder. Somehow, the Rockies managed to make the pitching staff worse since the end of last season.

As spring rolled around, the strategy became clear – the team was relying on a bunch of guys to return from injury and Jeff Francis. So how’d that work out this spring? Well, the good news looks like this:

Jeff Francis – 23.1 innings, 2.70 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 13 K, 2 BB
Chris Volstad – 10 innings, 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 4 K, 0 BB (5 appearances, 1 start)
Josh Outman – 9.1 innings, 1.93 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 6 K, 3 BB (all relief)

That’s it and it’s not even very good news. While Francis is turning back the clock to 2007, Volstad is probably going to end up in the bullpen and Outman was sent back to the minors. The correct reaction is, “wait, what?” Now look at these:

Jorge De La Rosa – 12.2 innings, 2.84 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 13 k, 8 BB
Wilton Lopez – 8 innings, 3.38 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 5 K, 0 BB
Juan Nicasio – 20.1 innings, 4.87 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 17 K, 9 BB
Matt Belisle – 10.2 innings, 5.06 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 13 K, 1 BB

Nicasio to the bullpen?

These lines aren’t exactly bad, but like some of the hitters, there are red flags here. De La Rosa’s ERA is good, but his WHIP is a little high and he’s walking a lot of guys. Plus, they skipped his last start because of elbow issues. Nicasio’s line is similar, but with a higher ERA and WHIP. Unlike De La Rosa, Nicasio only has one good pitch (a fastball), which is why he gives up more hits. When the Rockies signed Volstad, I figured it was to insert him into the rotation and move Nicasio to the bullpen (or the minors), but what the hell do I know. As far as Lopez and Belisle, their ERA’s are a little concerning, but both of them are showing impeccable control. Let’s just hope that Lopez (arm surgery) and Belisle (overuse – 80 innings in 2012) can make it through the entire season.

You also may have noticed some names from last year missing from those two lists. Well…

Drew Pomeranz – 18 innings, 5.50 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, 13 K, 7 BB
Tyler Chatwood – 19 innings, 6.16 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 13 K, 13 BB
Jhoulys Chacin – 11 innings, 7.36 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 6 K, 3 BB
Christian Friedrich – 5 innings, 10.80 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 3 K, 1 BB

Guess which one of those guys is the only one to make the team and will be starting on opening day? Kind of depressing, isn’t it (it’s Chacin, by the way)? How are the fans supposed to get excited about an opening day starter sporting those numbers and who skipped a start due to back spasms? Friedrich also reported back issue, which led to a late spring start for him and explains his limited usage, but seems to have recovered. Chatwood wasn’t projected to break camp with the team, but his numbers suggest he’s further away now than when the spring started. That leaves Pomeranz, the jewel of the Jimenez trade who had such a shaky spring the Rockies took a flyer on Jon Garland so they could send Pomeranz back to the minors for more seasoning. As with White, it’s far too early to draw conclusions about Pomeranz’s future, but he’s looking more and more like glass than a diamond.

Of special mention are two guys unique in their own way. The first is Miguel Batista, the 42 year-old journeyman who the Rockies signed to a minor league deal for no reason that makes sense in this universe. Sure, there was no risk to it, but there was also no reward. What possible use would a 98-loss team have with a 42 year-old middle reliever? The second is Parker Frazier, son of Root commentator George Frazier. In less than two innings of work, he was crushed for a 43.20 ERA and .583 batting average against. No, those aren’t misprints. He’s a young kid and I have no idea what the scouting reports project for him, but a line like that is the exclamation mark on the pitching staff’s spring.

There you have it and it’s clear the story hasn’t changed for the Rockies. They’re already screwing up the pitching situation (Volstad should be starting with Nicasio in the bullpen) and none of the kids look ready to face major league hitters, which is why they’re in the minors again. They still haven’t cut Manuel Corpas, who is tied with Chacin, Nicasio, and Friedrich for home runs given up and the injury bug is already peeking its ugly head. On the other hand, the offense looks exceedingly dangerous, especially if Tulo returns to form and Rutledge progresses. While I don’t expect much from this team, I’m not going to guess at their number of wins because if last year’s A’s could pull off 90+ wins, anything is possible (and I want to be jaded in a positive way for at least the first week of the season). All I’m really hoping for is that someone “accidentally” locks Dinger in the bathroom and we get just one ninth inning without his stupid, giant head bouncing around behind the backstop.

Continue reading »]]> Editor’s note. This was sent into our Supreme Master last week, but our Supreme Master was off vacationing in Maui! Why isn’t he watching every pitch of every Rockies Spring Training game? I asked the same question and all I got in return was some sort of Corona induced psycho babble. In any case, we feel this is still relevant and Kevin’s opinions and thoughts haven’t changed.

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Since Root Sports decided to air more than one spring training game this year, those of us who don’t have the time (or money) to venture to Arizona get some chances (six, to be exact) to see the team in spring training. After watching Mariners crush the Rockies 16-6 on Monday, these are my initial thoughts.

Juan Nicasio threw three innings and looked awful in giving up 3 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks, striking out 3. I say “threw” and not “pitched” because the man is a pitcher in title only. If anyone can tell me why the Rockies insist he is a starting pitcher, please educate me. He threw mostly fastballs and mixed in something that vaguely resembled a curveball. Starting pitchers need two plus pitches and a third decent one to be successful and Nicasio has one. To top that off, his control was nearly nonexistent, mostly due to his body being out of control. He is a reliever at best and appears to have no idea how to actually pitch. He just slings the ball at the plate and no one is sure where it is going.

Following Nicasio’s exit, the Rockies portrayed why they were so terrible last year. First, the inning showcased another dubious acquisition by the front in office in 42-year old reliever, Miguel Batista. When I wrote earlier about what I would do if I was the GM for a day, it included releasing 42-year old Jason Giambi, primarily because the Rockies are in no place to be burning roster spots on 42-year olds. Uh…yeah. While Batista didn’t give up any earned runs, he did give up 6 unearned runs on 4 hits and 2 walks. Second, it was another signature inning where one error basically blew up the game. Third, the defense completely stunk up the field, though the box score show only one error (on Cuddyer at first base). Maybe I’m being a little harsh, but two other plays should have been made that could have ended the inning. One was a fly ball to right-center that Tyler Colvin appeared to overrun, though it was by no means a routine play. The other was a fly ball to left field that Corey Dickerson caught on the run, only to drop it when he stopped himself with the wall. Again, both plays were somewhat difficult, but good defenses make those plays and stop the bleeding.

Since we’re on the subject, for those of you who can’t stop griping about Todd Helton playing first base, Cuddyer let a routine ground ball go through his legs, leading to those 6 unearned runs in the fourth inning. Yeah, Helton is a shadow of his former self, but the man still managed to put up replacement level numbers last season on one leg. As Travis Lay predicted in an earlier column, a healthy Helton probably puts up a 1-2 WAR and the guy still gets on base and works counts. If Weiss manages the lineup properly, we should see a platoon situation between Colvin, Cuddyer, and Helton manning right field and first base, with Helton seeing 120 games max.

Across the diamond, the third base situation has become a no-win situation for the Rockies. Hold on…before you flip out…hear me out. The Rockies already have Chris Nelson and Jordan Pacheco – two guys that proved they can hit last year and offer versatility as utility guys, especially Pacheco who can catch and man first base as well. Granted, both of them need to improve a lot with the glove, as they were both fairly dreadful at third by most defensive metrics. Added to the mix are DJ LeMahieu, the best glove of the batch, but with little power at the plate; Ryan Wheeler, the guy received in a trade for Matt Reynolds, and Nolan Arenado, the third-base prospect ripped by the front office as immature, but the guy most of the fans want to see get his shot.

The reason this is no-win is because the Rockies created a situation where someone gets screwed no matter what happens. Arenado is having a great spring so far and is making it really difficult for the Rockies to start him off in the minors, mostly because it will piss off the fans and Arenado (reportedly, the reason he was upset last year was because he didn’t make the team out of spring training). Additionally, Nelson and Pacheco lose any trade value if Arenado gets the job, leaving the Rockies with two guys they can’t really afford to drop to the minors. This, in turn, makes it far less likely that Wheeler makes the club, rendering the Reynolds trade a complete loss (arguably, this was a loss anyway considering Arenado has always been the long term plan). With LeMahieu also fighting for a spot, throw in Jonathan Herrera and Charlie Culberson (they guy they got for Marco Scutaro) battling for the back-up second base job, and you can see how the complete lack of planning on the part of the GM team has led to a situation where at least one deserving player ends up languishing in the minors (or lost for nothing).

Finally, two more notes on Arenado. One – the guy is lighting it up at the plate, but is swinging at everything (still hasn’t taken a walk). While this is exciting for now, it will catch up with him sooner rather than later as pitchers start taking advantage of this. Second – he didn’t get any plays at third base, so I didn’t get a chance to observe him in the field.

I know this sounds very negative, but is just the game I saw and there are positive signs from the team in general (see: Chris Volstad, Jeff Francis, and more Arenado box scores). The next game to be aired is on Friday, March 8, and I’m hoping to see more of Arenado on both sides of the ball, at least one Helton at-bat (very curious to see him move around and swing), Tulowitzki in the field, and none of Batista or Manny Corpas.

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Fortunately, Brandon McCarthy has recovered well after being struck in the head this summer.

Over the past couple of years we’ve seen three cases of a pitcher getting hit in the head by a line drive, resulting in a lot of talk about needing to protect pitchers.  The first occurred last year when Juan Nicasio (Rockies) was hit, falling to the ground and breaking his neck.  The second occurred this September when Brandon McCarthy (A’s) was hit, resulting in emergency brain surgery to stop a brain hemorrhage and repair a fracture skull.  Finally, during the World Series, Doug Fister (Tigers) took a hit that caromed all the way into centerfield before hitting the ground.  This last one seemed to be the final straw for everyone, including announcer Tim McCarver, who immediately blurted that something needed to be done.  On that, I couldn’t agree more.

Unfortunately, in typical knee-jerk fashion, the reaction has been to address the result instead of the problem, with discussions of helmets and Kevlar hat linings the only solutions currently being discussed.  While these two things add a slight amount of protection, they don’t actually address the problem – bad mechanics are putting pitchers in danger, not the line drives.

Take the example of Mike Coolbaugh, a minor league first base coach for the Rockies who was killed by a line drive in 2007. The reaction to this was to mandate that all base coaches wear helmets, even though the ball hit Coolbaugh in the neck.  See the problem here?  How, exactly, does a helmet protect one’s neck?  Whether the league was a in hurry to look like they were doing something or simply didn’t ask the right question, base coaches are no safer than they were before from this particular accident happening again.  The question they answered was “how do we protect a coach’s head if he gets hit by a line drive” when it should have been “why did he get hit by a line drive?”  That way, the solution becomes keeping him from getting hit again.  This is the exact same approach they are taking with this new problem, using the flawed logic that no coaches have died since the helmet mandate, even though you can count on zero fingers how many times a coach has been hit in the head by a line drive since.  It’s also incredibly easy to throw helmets on pitchers and claim that baseball is protecting pitchers, without doing any work to solve the real problem.  That is, until a pitcher gets hit in the neck or spine (I’ll explain in a minute) and everyone realizes the problem still exists; line drives sometimes hit pitchers.

Before I go on, you should know that I’m not just some talking head throwing out an opinion; I’ve experienced this first-hand.  When I was 18 years old, I was pitching in a tournament in Albuquerque when the hitter smashed a line drive directly at my head.  I had just enough to time to raise my pitching hand in front of my face before the ball hit my hand and ricocheted into the right side of my jaw.  Had my hand not taken the brunt of the impact, there’s no telling how much damage I would have sustained, but that’s not what truly saved my face.  That I was in a good fielding position – the result of years of practice, coaching, and sound mechanics – is what saved me.  This is why I know what the real problem is that needs to be addressed and what probably would have saved all three of these pitchers from getting hit or at least getting hit as badly as they did.

I have watched video of all three of these pitchers getting hit and all three of them were in no position to protect themselves.  In fact, all three of them were facing away from home plate and not in position to even field a baseball, let alone protect themselves from line drives.  Fister’s is especially bad, as his follow-through leg is still above his head, crossing in front of his body when the ball hits him. But why are they in this position? All three of them are exhibiting the same bad mechanics that seem to have been adopted by the majority of pitchers in order to increase velocity.

(I also believe this is the reason we have seen significant spikes in pitcher injuries, including Tommy John surgery, but that’s a discussion for another day.)

If we break down their mechanics, it becomes very obvious why they are ending up facing away from home plate.  As each of them approaches their release point, keep your eyes on the glove hand and you’ll notice it drops and swings around behind their bodies.  This added momentum helps force their body to swing around and is a sign that the pitcher is not in control of their own body.  This wouldn’t be quite so bad, but the pitchers aren’t even trying to slow down their bodies, and the two things together make it impossible for them to drop into a fielding position.  Proper mechanics have a pitcher tucking their glove into their bodies, which helps keep the body under control and has the added benefit of increased pitch control for the pitcher.  Going back to the glove positioning, as the ball is approaching the pitcher, each of them has their glove behind their thigh, increasing the amount of time it takes to raise it up to their heads in defense.  Couple this with their turned bodies and they have essentially removed any chance of being able to raise their glove in time to catch the ball, or even deflect it.  If you’ve ever wondered why Greg Maddux had such impeccable pitch control and won 18 Gold Gloves (yes, EIGHTEEN), it’s because his mechanics were flawless and he was always ready to field the baseball.

The other facet to this issue is the ridiculous amount of attention it’s getting.  Don’t get me wrong, player safety is important and I cringe every time a pitcher takes a line drive off of any part of his body, but it’s been completely blown out of proportion.  In my professional life, I work in the security field and one of the main principles is weighing risk versus reward.  In other words, evaluating the probability and impact of an event against the cost in money, resources, and time of trying to prevent or mitigate that event.  In this case, it’s extremely easy to argue that absolutely no action should be taken because a) sports inherently have risk and pitchers know this and b) the odds of it occurring are virtually zero.  According to baseball-reference.com, in 2012 there were 184,179 plate appearances and 3.79 pitches per plate appearance.  Two line drives out of 698,038 potential liners results in a probability of occurrence of .000287%.  Next, we look at impact, which ranges from no damage (Fister’s case) to death, which has yet to occur in major league baseball (McCarthy’s case is currently the worst case).  In all three instances, the player recovered and has since pitched again in the majors.  With that in mind, the long-term impact of these line drives is zero and we can say that everyone clamoring over this issue is literally worried about nothing.

I suppose that’s not entirely fair, since the immediate impact is injury, so what we’re left with is the potential for death as the only risk – which brings us back to helmets.  Since the risk of injury is .000287%, adding a helmet has an extremely tiny affect on that percentage due to how low it is already.  Plus, as I said earlier, a helmet only covers a portion of the head and none of the neck or face.  And, if the pitcher is practicing good mechanics, he will be facing the plate and rendering the helmet useless anyway.

By now, you’re probably under the impression that I am against helmets for pitchers, which is not the case at all.  If a pitcher feels like he is safer wearing a helmet, then he should wear a helmet.  If you ask me if I would wear one, my answer is no (and I pitched for several years after my own incident).  My point is that there isn’t a single so-called baseball expert – announcers, coaches, analysts, writers, and players included – breaking down the events and explaining why these injuries occurred.  They’re all so focused on the result of the event that they can’t see the cause of the event.  What’s more, fixing the mechanics of all of these out-of-control pitchers might have the side-effects of better pitch control, reduced injuries, and improved defense.  At a minimum, they would at least have a chance to protect themselves rather than hoping the ball doesn’t kill them.

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What would Kevin do with Fowler? You may not like it....

With free agent season upon us, I’d like to take this opportunity to suspend reality by pretending that the Rockies have non-cheapskate owners and a general manager who doesn’t need his cage cleaned once a week, and look at how I would construct the roster for 2013 if I were in charge of this team.

For starters, the Rockies have $52M committed to seven guys in 2013.  That may sound like a lot, but when you consider the rest of the roster makes the league minimum ($500K), for a 40-man roster we’re looking at a starting point of $70.5M.  Last year, the team spent $81M, so even if my fake reality still has the Monforts, I can reasonably expect to be able to spend at least $11M on new players.  I’m not going to get crazy and spend like the Dodgers, Red Sox, or Yankees, but I also believe the Rockies could easily spend $100M and still be profitable.

The first decision to make is what to do with the Rockies players who just became free agents – Jason Giambi, Jeff Francis, and Jonathan Sanchez.  I’m also going to include Rafael Betancourt, since he has a mutual option for 2013 at $4.25M.  Of the four, there is absolutely no way I re-sign Giambi.  He was valuable in 2009 and 2011, but the magic and novelty have completely worn off, not to mention a 98-loss team cannot justify wasting a roster spot on a 41-year old pinch hitter.  It’s time to move on.

Of the other three, I’m not keeping Betancourt or Sanchez.  I’m already paying Matt Belisle $4.1M; I don’t need another expensive reliever in Betancourt, and between Belisle and Rex Brothers, I’ve got the 8^th and 9^th innings covered.  Sanchez has been battling injury, he’s probably going to be expensive ($5.9M last year), and he was arguably the worst starting pitcher in baseball last year.  That leaves Francis, who I’m keeping for three reasons – he earned it by stabilizing (at least a little) a chaotic pitching staff and situation (4-man rotation), I know he can pitch at Coors Field without being reduced to tears, and he won’t cost much.  Having said that, I offer him a $1 million contract and discuss a possible move to the bullpen (I’ll get to the rotation in a minute).

I’m also not going to offer arbitration to Outman or Herrera, two guys to whom I have no intention of risking paying more than the league minimum.  Besides that, the team is finally free of paying guys who play for other teams, so my current salary base is $71M.  With that in mind, my current opening day roster looks like this:

Catcher – Wilin Rosario

First Base – Todd Helton

Second Base – Josh Rutledge

Third Base – Chris Nelson

Shortstop – Troy Tulowitzki

Left Field – Carlos Gonzalez

Center Field – Dexter Fowler

Right Field – Michael Cuddyer

Bench – Ramon Hernandez, Jordan Pacheco, Eric Young Jr., Tyler Colvin, DJ LeMahieu

Starting Pitchers – Drew Pomeranz, Jhoulys Chacin, Jorge de la Rosa, Juan Nicasio, Christian Friedrich

Bullpen – Matt Belisle, Rex Brothers, Matt Reynolds, Adam Ottavino, Edgmer Escalona, Rob Scahill, Jeff Francis

Assuming the Mets sign David Wright to a 6-year extension at an annual salary of $18 million (I’m guessing), I would trade Fowler, Nelson, and Hernandez for Wright and a first base prospect.  Besides the obvious reason of Wright being a fantastic player, the biggest reason for making this trade is to end the merry-go-round that is the Rockies’ 3B situation.  My net salary increase here is $12 million, though probably less when considering Fowler stands to get a substantial raise through arbitration. This deal works for both sides as the Mets get a young, potential All-Star in Fowler, a serviceable third baseman, and a catcher they wanted last year, all while shedding salary in the form of a guy they’ve managed to piss off in Wright.  Sure, Fowler’s three years younger than Wright (30 in December), but now I can start Colvin in CF every day (or LF and Gonzalez in CF).  I also don’t trust Fowler’s career year after three years of just a high OBP as proof he’s turned the corner, not to mention his horrendous baserunning skills including a low stolen base total for a supposedly speedy guy.  I know a lot of fans love Fowler, but I’m selling high while I have the chance and Wright more than makes up for the loss of Fowler, even if Colvin regresses from last year.

With the conclusion of this trade, I can bring Charlie Blackmon and Andrew Brown to the bench and make Pacheco the backup catcher (and super utility-man for the corner infield spots).  In order to replace the so-called “experienced catcher” in Hernandez, I ditch the current catching coach (Jerry Weinstein) and hire Ivan Rodriguez to come teach Rosario how to catch a baseball.  Heck, he can even double as a hitting coach to augment Dante Bichette.  While I’m at it, I also get rid of Jim Wright (the new old pitching coach – Rockies pitching coach in 2002) and Bo McLaughlin (assistant pitching coach) and hire John Smoltz, a successful pitcher who, I believe, would relish the challenge of proving that pitchers can be successful at Coors Field.

(I realize my coaching choices are pie in the sky, but has anyone actually asked these guys to coach yet?)

Next, I turn my attention to the starting rotation.  The four free agents I’m targeting are Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, Joe Blanton, and Shaun Marcum, with the goal of signing two of them.  Here are the stats that are important to me when signing starting pitchers to play in Denver.

* Missed 2009 from Tommy John surgery

I think all four of these guys can be signed for $12M per year; the only difference being the length of the contract.  I think all four of these guys can be successful at Coors Field because they have good walk rates and are close to the league average in GB/FB ratio (0.80), with the exception of Marcum.  Of the four, I prefer Haren and Blanton because they walk fewer batters, are durable, and both have experience pitching in the NL West.  I especially like Haren because he thrived at another hitter’s park in Phoenix and has the best numbers of the four of them.  Sure, they’re the oldest of the four, but that just means I sign them to four year deals instead of five or six year deals.  The red flags for the other two guys are that Jackson’s WHIP has bounced crazily throughout his career (from 1.21 to 1.76) and Marcum has had injury issues, including the afore mentioned Tommy John surgery.

Now that I have Haren and Blanton, I can move Nicasio to the bullpen (where he should have been all along), and send Friedrich back to AAA for more seasoning, alongside Tyler Chatwood and Alex White.  With these three guys, I have options in case de la Rosa continues his abysmal cameo from last year, any of the starters get injured, or as trade chips for the right opportunity.

Now that I have my roster, take a look at the potential starting lineup I’ve created.

CF – Colvin

2B – Rutledge

LF – Gonzalez

SS – Tulowitzki

3B – Wright

RF – Cuddyer

C – Rosario

1B – Helton

This lineup would scare the bejeezus out of every manager in the league, especially if Rosario develops better plate discipline.  Plus, the Rockies’ pitchers would be pitching with leads more often, which is always a good thing.

After all is said and done, I now have a pair of very good pitchers to anchor what was a criminally inexperienced pitching staff, a vastly improved third base, a more cost-effective bullpen, no wasted roster spots in 41-year old pinch hitters who can’t run or play multiple positions, a versatile bench with bats on both sides of the plate, and coaches who have actually played baseball and had success.  And all of this for the reasonable price of $107M.

The best thing about this whole plan is that it is both tactically and strategically smart.  In the short term, it shows the fans that the team is actively trying to get better and win now rather than later.  And, even if 2013 is simply an improvement to .500, that’s an increase of 18 wins and puts the team on the edge of playoff contention.  With Helton and de la Rosa coming off the books after next year (at $16 million combined), the team can plug in a cheap replacement level player to replace Helton (doesn’t even have to be a first baseman if Cuddyer moves to 1B in 2014) and find another starter through free agency, the minors, or trade (Nolan Arenado becomes a valuable trade chip with Wright signed for several years).

In the long term, I’ve built a team with a solid core for the next four years that promises to be competitive and entertaining, while maintaining a realistic budget around $100M every year and keeping the franchise profitable.  When you throw in the $25M television windfall every team will get after next season, there is absolutely no reason this scenario can’t be attempted.  It’s just a shame this fantasy has to come to end.

Continue reading »]]> Now that the 2012 season has finally come to an end, Rockies fans can begin to forget this horrible season ever happened.  We all thought we could start forgetting at the end of the regular season, but things actually got worse.  First, we had to watch Seth Smith put the A’s on his back and almost carry them to a first round, come-from-behind victory with game-saving/winning hits in games 3 and 4.  At the same time, we watched Jason Hammel put up two good outings against the Yankees, proving yet again how horrible the Jeremy Guthrie trade turned out.  Then, we had to endure Marco Scutaro turning into a San Francisco folk hero as he tore up the Cardinals in the NLCS and won MVP honors for the series.  As if that wasn’t enough, he had the World Series clinching hit for the Giants proving that it is possible to have fun when Dan O’Dowd isn’t your boss.  Finally, since MLB frowns on franchises stealing headlines during the playoffs, we’ve had to put up with the most bizarre manager search in the history of sports.  The fact that they are seriously entertaining making Jason Giambi the manager is all you need to know about how dysfunctional the franchise is.

Why bring all of that up again?  For all of the crazy, idiotic things that have been well documented over the course of the season, there’s one thing that happened that nobody has talked about and I believe it to be one of the worst cases of incompetence in the reign of O’Dowd – the case of Kevin Slowey.

Many of the deals that went down this year have been talked about ad nauseam.  Seth Smith for Guillermo Moscoso and Josh Outman, Chris Iannetta for Tyler Chatwood, trading for Scutaro only to ship him right back out, the signings of Ramon Hernandez and Michael Cuddyer, the dumping of Ian Stewart for Tyler Colvin and DJ LeMahieu, and, of course, the Guthrie disaster, represent the major transactions that defined 2012.  At the time they were being done, these deals made a sort of sense.  O’Dowd was trying to rebuild the pitching staff and bring in some veterans to stabilize the roster.  It was actually the first coherent plan the man’s had in his entire tenure with the Rockies.  In hindsight, it’s easy to skewer him for almost all of these, but we should have known this plan was doomed by looking at what he did with Slowey.

Right around the time all of these trades were going down, O’Dowd traded a player to be named later (a name which I have not been able to find) for Twins pitcher Kevin Slowey.  When this happened, I was intrigued because unlike the rest of the slew of arms they were acquiring, I had actually heard of Slowey.  A month later, O’Dowd turned around and traded Slowey to Cleveland for Zach Putnam.  My immediate reaction to this was, “what the…?”  But, like the rest of the fans, I was distracted from this by more player signings and trades and it wasn’t until recently, when I started researching all of the transactions from the season, that I remembered this trade.  So I started digging into it and found some very odd things.

The first was that Slowey was immediately optioned to Cleveland’s AAA team and ended up only pitching in 8 games.  Looking at his 2011 stats and digging around some more revealed that he had a back injury and has been battling to get back to full health.  The second was that the Rockies agreed to pick up almost half of his 2012 salary at $1.25 million.  So, that means that O’Dowd traded some random person for another random person (Putnam ended up pitching 2 innings for the Rockies this season) and paid more than a million dollars for another guy not to play for the Rockies.  This was made even more ridiculous given the fact the Rockies pitching staff was atrocious and could have used another arm, even if it was broken.

So the question to all of this was why any of this happened at all.  If O’Dowd had no intention of keeping him, why trade for him in the first place?  On that note, why not keep him since he’s only 28, but a somewhat established starter?  Most of all, why trade a nobody to end up with a different nobody and torch $1.25 million at the same time?  It’s situations like these that are the real reason O’Dowd should be fired as there is no logic whatsoever.  And just to add insult to injury, the Rockies just lost Putnam to a waiver claim by the Cubs.  At this point in time, I’m starting to think that O’Dowd isn’t even a real person, but a hamster that just runs around on a keyboard and the Monforts use whatever comes out on the monitor as their plan.

As much as I’d like to tell you this nonsense is over for the next few months, we still have the outcome of the managerial search ahead of us, as well as pondering what on Earth O’Dowd and Bill Geivett were thinking when they placed Josh Roenicke on waivers, losing him almost immediately to a claim by – wait for it – the Twins.  Maybe Roenicke was that player to be named later and the hamster strikes again.

Continue reading »]]> Wilder Card Round

First of all, I don’t consider the Wilder Card game to be the first round of the playoffs.  It feels more like a play-in game outside of the playoffs kind of like those two ridiculous play-in games in the NCAA tournament.  If anything, they cheapen the playoffs.  That being said, the Wilder Card displayed almost every negative thing possible said by its doubters (myself included).

Baltimore vs. Texas

This game would have happened regardless of the new format, as the two teams finished the season with 93-69 records.  As I wrote in an earlier column, the entire American League playoff race played out like it would have under the old format.  Four teams fighting for two divisions (six if you include Tampa Bay and the Angels) and ultimately, three playoff spots.  Texas losing this game put the finishing touch on a collapse that really hasn’t gotten enough attention.  Why didn’t it get more attention?  1 – Because Texas isn’t an East coast team.  Had this been the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, or Phillies, we would have heard more about it than this year’s elections.  2 – They “made the playoffs.”  Without the Wilder Card, they would have talked more about game 163 as the Rangers’ last chance to save their season.  Instead, we got a passing mention about how they blew the division by getting swept by the A’s at the end of the season.  This story should have been enormous – a team in the World Series the past two years coughing up a five game lead with nine to play.  Maybe it just happened so quick that nobody could react.  Even their no-show in the play-in game went by without much talk, though that may have had more to do with how boring the game was.

In losing 5-1, the Rangers never really threatened once the Orioles took the lead in the 6^th inning.  They had 7 runners in scoring position on the entire game and their number 3 and 4 hitters (Josh Hamilton and Adrian Beltre, respectively) went a combined 0-8; Hamilton with 2 strikeouts and grounding into a double play.  The Orioles weren’t much better, only putting 5 runners in scoring position, but they managed to cash in three of those while striking out 12 times.  This game was almost a total dud, and even though it would have happened under the old format, it still makes the Wilder Card oh-for-one.

St. Louis vs. Atlanta

This game is the first of many to come that will prove the idiocy of this format.  Forcing two unequal teams to play a 5- or 7-game series at least minimizes luck and misfortune.  A one-game playoff spits on the entire regular season, in this case saying that two teams separated by six games in the standings are actually equal.  Further compounding this stupidity is the fact that the Giants had the same record as the Braves.  So why weren’t they forced to play as well?  As advocates of this nonsense repeatedly say “if you don’t like it, win your division” (which the Giants did) as if geography is a valid reason to punish teams that performed better while playing in a tougher division.  Getting into the playoffs is the reward for winning a division; they shouldn’t get any more than that.

Having said that, this game is the epitome of dismissing a season, as the Braves played arguably their worst game all season.  In what will be known as the Infield Fly Rule Game, the Braves lost 6-3 by virtue of 3 errors and the worst umpiring call since Jim Joyce screwed Armando Galarraga out of a perfect game in 2010.  Regardless of what you believe cost Atlanta this game, it shows the inequity of a one game playoff and how luck can affect single games.  The worst thing is that it was Chipper Jones’ final game – where he went 1-for-5 at the plate (with a very weak infield single) and committed the most costly error of the three – a sad final memory of a great player.  Oh-for-two.

Division Round

For all of the whining about baseball needing more one-and-done games (one of the main justifications for pushing the Wilder Card), all four division series went the distance in their five game sets.

San Francisco vs. Cincinnati

After winning the first two games in San Francisco, the Reds appeared to be on their way to a sweep, outscoring the Giants 14-2 during those games and heading home to close out the series.  Then, the Reds stopped scoring, losing 2-1, 8-3, and finally 6-4.  You’ll hear a lot of talk about the loss of Johnny Cueto being the cause, but it’s more a case of the Reds not getting clutch hits, going 3-24 with runners in scoring position over the last three games. When Buster Posey crushed a grand slam in the fifth inning of game 5, pushing the score to 6-0 and effectively ending the Reds’ season, the entire city of Cincinnati slumped their heads in defeat, as much for the end of the Reds season as in the knowledge that they now have to pay attention to the Bengals.

Detroit vs. Oakland

A final note on the absurdity of the current playoff setup and seeding, the Tigers finished seventh in the American League by record.  You read that correctly, the Tigers finished worse than the Yankees, Oakland, Baltimore, Texas, Tampa Bay, and the Angels.  Yet, by virtue of geography, they got an invite to the playoffs and got to watch the Wilder Card game from the comfort of their homes.  If there was ever a case to be made for handicapping a less-deserving team in the playoffs, Detroit is its subject.  I’m sure the A’s would have loved to only face Justin Verlander once (assuming he pitched in the Wilder Card game).  And just so there’s no confusion, they finished with the same record as the Cardinals, the NL Wilder Card team.

Anyway, this series also looked destined for a sweep, as the Tigers jumped to a 2-0 lead.  The difference between this series and SF/Cincy is that the A’s were heading home with a deficit instead of a lead.  The A’s fought back, winning the third game behind Brett Anderson’s fantastic pitching and a Seth Smith home run.  Down 3-1 in the ninth inning of game 4, the A’s seemed to be cooked, but did what they’ve done all season with their 15^th come-from-behind victory.  Seth Smith, again, was a pivotal piece in the comeback, delivering a 2-run double.  Two outs later, Coco Crisp redeemed himself from a dropped fly ball in game 2 (that arguably cost the A’s that game) by delivering a game-winning 2-out single that scored Smith.  Unfortunately for the A’s, game 5 featured a fully rested Verlander proving why he deserved the MVP award last year.  Verlander tossed a 4-hit shutout to slam the door, yet again, on the dream of a Moneyball World Series win.

Baltimore vs. New York (Yankees)

This series reaffirmed my hatred for the Yankees (they won 3-2).  How is it that the guys that save seasons for the Yankees are never the superstars, but random dudes they just happened to pick up off the scrap heap?  Bucky Dent, Aaron Boone, and now Raul Ibanez (I’m sure there are others).  Seriously, no other team could get away with pinch hitting for one of the greatest hitters of all time and have it work out not once but twice.  When Ibanez crushed (and there’s no other way to describe it) his second home run of the game in the 12^th inning of game 3 for the win, every fan in Boston felt a little closer to the fans of Baltimore while simultaneously feeling nauseous at the flashbacks of Aaron Boone in 2003.  If that wasn’t bad enough, the Yankees escaped defeat despite “hitting” at a triple slash of .211/.278/.333, despite Russell Martin (.176), Curtis Granderson (.158), Alex Rodriguez (.125), Nick Swisher (.111), and Robinson Cano (.091!!) all “hitting” like Jamie Moyer, despite Joe Girardi benching Rodriguez for game 5 and getting an 0-3 from Eric Chavez in his place.  This is why everyone outside of the Bronx hates the Yankees.  I’d love to say Detroit will demolish them if they continue this pace, but at this point it wouldn’t surprise me if the Yankees won while benching Rodriguez and letting pitchers hit for themselves.  Wait, don’t tell Girardi I said that.

St. Louis vs. Washington

Let the second round of second guessing begin.  What do I mean?  Stephen Strasburg, of course.  Did general manager Mike Rizzo make the right decision in shutting down Strasburg, their best pitcher, in early September?  The moment St. Louis second baseman Daniel Descalso closed his glove on Ryan Zimmerman’s pop-up to end the series and seal the Cardinals’ victory, every fan in Washington Google’d “Mike Rizzo residence” with mischief in their eyes.  The case for shutting down Strasburg has been argued ad nauseam, so I won’t go into it here.  All I will say is that Strasburg’s arm blew out after just 68 innings in 2010, even though the team took extraordinary care to avoid exactly that.  Considering his mechanics have not changed, it’s only a matter of time before it happens again and Rizzo’s only chance for redemption is if the Nationals make another playoff run, sooner rather than later.  Frankly, I’ll be surprised if he makes it to 2014 if the team does not make the playoffs next year.

But about the series, the Cardinals have nullified the asinine notion of handicapping the wild card through the Wilder Card game by winning this series.  There a lot of reasons to root for the Cardinals to win the World Series – being a Matt Holliday fan, sticking it to Albert Pujols for choosing money over immortality, rooting for the underdog, rooting for a repeat World Series champ – but my favorite is to infuriate the Verduccis who hate it when the wild card teams win (the whole reason he argued for the Wilder Card game in the first place).  Let’s be honest, the Wilder Card game exists to put more money in the owners pockets, not for any existential reasons like ill-perceived fairness.  If it did, the Cardinals winning should provoke some a new handicap like reducing the wild cards’ rosters or forcing their best hitter to bat opposite handed or making the pitchers wear eye-patches over their dominate eye.  Have I made my point yet?

On a final note, Bryce Harper showed his immaturity, yet again, following his strikeout in the ninth inning of game 5.  Just to be sure I really saw what I saw, I backed up the DVR and re-watched him face the infield, glare at the Cardinals fielders, and grab is crotch in an unmistakable way that said F*** You.  This was a petulant move by a kid who just finished a 3-23 (and 0 walks) showing for the series and was throwing a little tantrum because he struck out.  With that move, the division round was over.

Championship Series

By now, it should be fairly obvious that I’m rooting for a rematch of the 2006 World Series, featuring Detroit and St. Louis.  There is no team I like less than the Yankees and I just can’t root for the Giants, the closest thing the Rockies have to a rival.  I’d also be lying if I said I wasn’t secretly thrilled that three of the four remaining teams feature the three worst records of all ten playoff teams (another blow to the reasoning behind the Wilder Card).  So here’s hoping the Yankees continue to hit like tee-ballers sans the Ibanez heroics and the Cardinals continue to stick it to Pujols and every person who thinks the Wilder Card team deserves to be handicapped.