Continue reading »]]> The Rockies’ staved off their May swoon with an impressive 5-2 home stand against the top of the NL West.   A little home cooking was just what the offense needed and hopefully the bats stay hot as the Rockies head to San Francisco for a weekend set.  Nolan Arenado has continued to impress with both his offense and defense, and is quickly making Rockies fans forget about the 3^rd base problems of the past several seasons.  DJ LeMahieu has looked solid since being recalled from AAA, and will replace the struggling Josh Rutledge at second base.  On the injury front, Michael Cuddyer returned from the DL, Rafael Betancourt is listed as day to day with a groin injury, and Jeff Francis is in the middle of a 15 day DL stint.  Here, we take a closer look at what Francis’ trip to the DL means for the pitching staff.

1. True or False: Francis’ injury makes the Rockies better.

Brendan: True, but that is more about Chatwood being great than Francis being terrible.  Tyler Chatwood has been very impressive in his limited appearances and should remain in the rotation, but I am not convinced that Francis is the pitcher that needs to be replaced.  From the small samples available, Francis and Jon Garland are remarkably similar with nearly identical WHIPs (1.583 vs. 1.558), H/9 (10.8 vs. 11.4), and HR/9 (1.5 vs. 1.2).  After getting off to a fast start to the year, Garland has struggled in May with a 6.00 ERA and 1.81 WHIP.  Francis is still a serviceable “crafty lefty” who can consistently get through 5 innings and keep the Rockies in the game.  Furthermore, he is not afraid of Coors Field and I am worried that Garland might go the way of Guthrie after another bad outing.  Francis and Garland are both replacement level pitchers so the emergence of Chatwood is the real story here, and his presence has given the rotation some quality depth behind Chacin and DLR. 

Kevin: Clearly true. Francis is a below average pitcher, and has been since 2008. His ERA+ for 2013 is 76 (league average is 100). Clearly his rotation spot is in sore need of an upgrade. The two most likely replacements, Tyler Chatwood and Drew Pomeranz, have been pitching well in Colorado Springs, and Chatwood has thrown well in a handful of MLB starts this year. Because Francis has been so bad this year, his replacement only needs to be OK in order to be an upgrade.

Ned: Of course it does not make the Rockies better.  The five starters from the beginning of the year have not exactly been Cy Young award candidates.  This is, and will continue to be, a struggling rotation, with occasional flashes of competence from De La Rosa and Chacin, and most recently a one game glimpse of decent pitching from Nicasio.  The Rockies need all the starting pitching they can muster.  Francis may not be Steve Carlton, but he does give the team a reasonable shot at a win every time he takes the ball.  Although Chatwood is pushing for a rotation spot, this time last year Chatwood looked like a batting practice hurler.  Pomeranz is still struggling for consistency at triple A, and Friedrich can’t seem to stay off the DL.  Let’s get Francis healthy, and then determine what to do with him.

2. Should Francis’ spot in the rotation be guaranteed when he returns from injury?

Brendan: No, but I think he will return to the rotation.  Losing a spot due to injury should only occur when the upgrade is clear, and in this case I am not convinced.  Francis, Nicasio, and Garland have all struggled at times this year and should all be on notice that their starting spots are in jeopardy.  Garland started the season well, but has been trending downward lately.  Nicasio has the most potential, but he is incredibly inconsistent and likely has the shortest leash.  Francis has also struggled, but I do not see him as appreciably worse than Garland or Nicasio.  The Rockies have stayed in contention this year by getting 5-6 innings from the starters and then handing off to the bullpen, which has been very good.  Francis is exactly the kind of guy that can consistently give the Rockies the type of performance that has keyed the early success.

Kevin: Francis’ rotation spot should be guaranteed to someone else. I am not a believer that you automatically get your starting spot upon returning from injury (see generally, Drew Bledsoe). It was questionable for the Rockies to keep Francis in the rotation prior to his injury, and if Chatwood continues to pitch well, Francis should relinquish his spot in the rotation.

Ned: No pitcher on the Rockies staff should have a guaranteed roster spot.  Pitchers are like a perishable commodity—by nature they have a limited useful life.  If there is a better pitcher available, Francis should be placed in a reserve role, either in extended “rehab” assignment or in triple A.  Whether Francis will accept an assignment to Colorado Springs is the unanswered question.

3. What is the best role for Francis going forward?

Brendan: 5^th starter.  I do not believe that Francis profiles as an effective bullpen pitcher.  The multi inning guys (Escalona, Outman, and Otavino) have all been very good and they are all hard throwers who strike hitters out.  Is the idea of Francis coming into a tied game in the 6^th appealing to anyone?  If the bullpen is out, then it is either stay as a starter or designating him for assignment.  I think that Francis can still help this team contend (at least in the short term) so I am not ready to see him released.  The bottom line is that the trio of Francis, Nicasio, and Garland should occupy no more than 2 spots in the rotation (and preferably only 1).  Therefore, someone has to go soon, it will likely come down to Francis and Garland, and I think Francis is a better option.

Kevin: Assuming Francis is unwilling to take a demotion to Colorado Springs, the Rockies should designate him for assignment. In the likely event the Rockies cannot find a trade partner after DFAing him, they will have to pay him the remaining amount on his $1.5 million contract, which is not a big deal. The Rockies have sufficient rotation depth that they don’t need Francis, plus he’s just not very good, so if the depth gets depleted they should be able to match his production (or lack thereof) by picking someone up off a scrap heap.

Ned: Chatwood looks like he will be part of the rotation for the near future.  On the time proven theory that you never have enough pitching, the Rockies need to keep Francis available either in the starting rotation or in a reserve role.  He is not a legitimate candidate for a bullpen role, and given the continued terrific performance of the bullpen guys (yes, even Wilton Lopez) there is no room for him even as a long reliever.  Garland likely would not accept a triple A assignment, so we need to assume that he would be gone if demoted.  Nicasio needs work on his control and breaking pitch.  Wouldn’t it be great if he had a reliable change-up?  Nicasio has options left, and is a prime candidate for demotion when Francis returns.

Have a different take? Let us know in the comments below.

Got an idea for a future 3U3D discussion?  Email us at BlakeStBulletin@gmail.com

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The kid can pick it

Fans will have to look back in wonder on this past week of scintillating play, if the Rox can keep it rollin’ all the way to a wilder card spot come September, and smile. An off-day today gives us all the time to breathe deep and take it all in again. Hosting our two division rivals (BSB poll currently says Giants, but I say D-backs) for a seven game homestretch and some NL West 1st place bragging rights at stake, you could feel that, although still very early in the season, this was a big week of must-win games for the Rockies.

The Rockies struggles against the Giants, especially in recent years, has been well-documented. And nothing feels worse than getting Snake-bitten. Additional anxiety over another brutal start to May, having lost all four series to open the month (vs. Rays, Yanks, Cards, Cubs) and nearly getting no-hit on two occasions, created even more pressure on the club and stress on the fans.

What’s more, the Rockies simply gave away the first game of this home stand to the Giants, blowing a six run lead after three innings, succumbing 8-6 in the end. Cargo summed it up, “Sometimes six runs is enough, but it was not enough tonight. Cain pitched terrible, but Chacin pitched even worse.” It marked Colorado’s tenth straight loss against San Francisco and you could tell it was getting into their heads. Weiss could only shake his while dejectedly repeating a simple mantra, seemingly to himself, “We got to play better. We got to win games.”

But there were positive signs to be seen. Rookie third baseman Nolan Arenado continued to look like he belongs in the bigs, as he made a brilliant, Brooks Robinson-esque play at the hot corner after hitting one of the three homers off Cain. Rosario got out of his funk by going yard as well, driving in three runs and scoring twice. And although the Giants might’ve won the game, they must’ve felt like Kobayashi in the Usual Suspects — although they knew they could get to the old Rockies, now they had to admit the suddenly younger Rockies could get to them too. Winning the next three games against San Francisco by a combined score of 25-11, with Rosario, Fowler, and Cargo putting up big numbers, certainly hammered that sentiment home:

Rosario: 6/14, 5R, 2HR, 7RBI

Fowler: 10/20, 7R, 2RBI, 2SB

Cargo: 4/12, 5R, 1HR, 5RBI, 3SB, 7BB

And all of a sudden, the Rockies had taken three of four against a very good ballclub they’d previously been cursed by all season long. Fans could now anticipate the Rockies carrying some momentum, confidence, good vibes and back-to-back pitching gems from Chatwood and Nicasio, of all people, into the three game series against the red-hot D-backs.

Those hopes were promptly dashed in the first game of the series, with Colorado bats unable to touch Patrick Corbin, who became only the third visiting pitcher in Coors Field history to toss a complete game win with 10+ K’s. The D-backs also tore the cover off the ball, getting 16 hits despite only plating 5 runs. Those stubborn, pesky D-backs play some gritty ball under Krik Gibson, to be sure, but that doesn’t keep me from loathing the entire organization, and for that matter the entire state of Arizona as well, in all its socio-political idiocy. But those of us who take losses like these so personally, enjoy subsequent victories that much more.

Ergo, these past two victories against Arizona have been some of the most gratifying all season. For the Rockies to bounce back in the second game and score four runs off Ian Kennedy in four innings was a critically important re-awakening. And despite letting the Snakes slither their way back into the game, the Rox probably needed to experience a walk-off victory again, to rediscover that mystical, magical feeling of being what the front-office always wants them to be: a team of destiny. Rosario’s walk-off hit in the 10th — staying back and hammering a 75mph curve ball on the outside half into the right field corner to score Gonzalez — gave even the most anti-metaphysical of us reason to pause.

Why can't Tulo stay healthy?

But it was the final game of the home stand, last night’s rubber match against Arizona, which was the pièce de résistance. The cosmos aligned perfectly so that mlb.tv decided to show it as their game of the day, which meant that all of us residing outside the U.S. were mercifully spared the buffoonish blatherings of the Rockies’ t.v. tools and were instead treated to the infinitely more competent radio tandem of Jack and Jerry on KOA. Moreover, with Tulo’s fragile nature confining him to the bench, manager Walt Weiss got creative with his lineup card and rewarded all of us Fowler-howlers by putting the underrated slugger in the clean-up spot! Seeing Cargo go yard first, then Fowler and Arenado back it up with back-to-back doubles was a THING OF BEAUTY!

De La Rosa continued to pitch well when the Rockies need it most, and Cargo continued to show that he’s every bit the superstar that Tulo is (Cargo is effortless instead of constipated; smooth and smart instead of tense and stubborn). And the Rockies’ decision to call up DJ LeMahieu for the homestand, which initially went under the radar, in hindsight looks like a great move. He performed competently at the dish (7/17, 2R, 2RBI, 1SB), in the field, and on the bases, giving the Rockies the most gargantuan infield in the history of the game:

Arenado: 6’1″, 205lbs.

Tulo: 6’3″, 215lbs.

LeMahieu: 6’4″, 205lbs.

Helton: 6’2″, 220lbs.

Rosario: 6’0″, 220lbs.

Gradually shifting one of these towering infielders over to first base this season might be a bold, but brilliant move — as we slowly continue to say good-bye to Helton — while throwing Rutledge back at 2B (or dare I say, SS?) and getting Cuddyer back out there in RF when he’s healthy, to keep the likes of EY2 and Blackmon on the bench — their glovework has been awful of late!. But as a team, the Rockies have certainly improved defensively (although they still only rank 20th in team fielding %) and the pitching has been relatively amazing thus far (relative to last season, at least).

So with the Rockies returning to San Francisco this weekend for a three game series, there’s a considerable weight lifted off their shoulders as they find themselves atop the NL West in a three-way tie with the Giants and D-backs, and the added relief of having the following four games be against the dreadful Astros.

But on this day of rest, the Rockies won’t be working, won’t be driving cars, won’t be riding in cars, won’t handle money, won’t turn on the oven and sure as shit won’t roll over. They’ll be relishing in last week’s wins, like the rest of us Rockies fans, which is how it should be, and gearing up for this weekend’s rematch against their division rivals of San Francisco.

In the meantime, they can all go bowling.

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Eight hole hitter?

Given the Rockies recent struggles at the plate, discussing who should hit eighth might seem a little out of place.  Let’s be honest – when a team scores more than three runs only once over their last eight games (and nearly get no-hit twice), the last thing they should be worried about is who should be hitting eighth.  But a recent question asked by a reader whether or not Todd Helton should hit eighth led to a couple of interesting ideas about what the eighth hitter should be (not necessarily who).  One person suggested a guy who can drive in runs, another suggested a high on-base percentage guy who can turn over the lineup, a third suggested it doesn’t matter as long as the productive hitters are grouped together higher in the order, and I suggested a speed guy.  Each of these has its merits, but how do we know which one is the best choice?

To answer that, it’s important to know which situation is the most likely to come up and which of these philosophies applies.  I went through all of the Rockies games played through 5/13 this year (38 games) and counted how many times each situation occurred, i.e. number of outs, number of base runners, and where those base runners were.  Below is the number of occurrences for each situation.

The philosophy we hear the most, especially from television announcers, is that the eighth hitter’s most important job is to roll the lineup over.  While that is important, it implies that we should expect a disproportionate number of 2-out situations in order to justify putting a high-OBP guy in that spot.  However, when you add the number of times that situation occurs (regardless of base runners), it’s 49 out of 149, or 33%.  In other words, it’s exactly what we would expect in a random sample of three possible outcomes.  Considering we can throw away one or two appearances per game due to pinch hitting for the pitcher (assume 1.5 for this calculation), 38% of them don’t apply (or 19).  This leaves us with just 30 appearances where this is a concern, or 20%.

Now, let’s look at RBI situations, i.e. runners in scoring position.  Adding these up, we get 30 out of 149 and we know that’s 20% of the time.  Furthermore, the opposing team is much more likely to intentionally walk the eight-hole hitter with runners in scoring position and two outs, which occurs in almost 67% of those situations (19 out of 30), rendering that hitter moot.  This situation and rolling the lineup over only account for 40% (at most) of the total appearances, so it’s not looking very good that either of those should be the only consideration when filling out the lineup card.

This leaves us with “don’t care” and “speed.”  “Don’t care” is harder to analyze since the assumption is the hitters before the eighth man will drive in all of the runs.  We can use that same RBI situation number of 20% and say that 80% of the time, the eight-hole comes up in a situation that is fairly irrelevant since the pitcher is probably going to make an out anyway.  While this is sort of true, it’s the kind of non-strategic thinking that causes rallies to die and leads to multiple innings a game where no runs are scored simply because not enough thought was put into the entire lineup.  Rolling the lineup over or trying to drive in runs still covers a significant portion of occurrences and can mean a difference of several wins on the season just by increasing the number of runs scored.  It’s also pointless to try to come up with numbers here because of course the better hitters are going to hit higher in the lineup because you want those guys to get more at-bats.  The point here is to try to maximize the output of the eighth spot, not simply ignore it based on the theory that a team might score a lot with the rest of the lineup.

This leaves the “speedy guy” option, which is a little more complex than the other theories.  In suggesting this, I was thinking of a couple of things.  One is that I wanted a guy who could start a rally and another was to have a guy who avoids making extra outs, i.e. avoid double plays.  Looking back at those tables again, we see that the spot comes up with zero outs slightly less than 33% of the time, the majority of them with the bases empty.  If he gets on base, instead of sacrificing with the pitcher (and giving up a sure out), the speedy guy could steal second.  This would also eliminate the need to constantly sacrifice the pitcher, allowing him to swing and potentially get a hit.  Considering the top of the order guys are typically more line drive and ground out guys, it’s not worth bunting him to third.  As a final nail in that coffin, a speedy guy is going to score on pretty much and base hit, so again no more bunting.

(I realize I’m going to catch flak for not bunting the pitcher, but I’d rather give the pitcher a chance than always take the out.  Sabermetrics fail to take into account how demoralizing it is to give up hits to the pitcher.  Feel free to throw numbers at me here.)

Taking into account double plays means considering 32 of those 149 situations.  A speedy guy is less likely to hit into a double play and also has the added bonus of rolling the lineup over.  The problem is that I don’t know how valuable this is compared to the RBI situation and probably is a very low number anyway.

After all of that, I don’t think there’s any right answer as to who should hit eighth.  The numbers show an even spread of appearances for any amount of outs and a couple of solutions are more predicated on run production as a mere possibility.  This brings us back to the original question – should Helton bat eighth?  As with most situations, it depends on the philosophy of the person running the team and unless those numbers start to favor a particular situation, that person’s philosophy will be correct regardless of what it is.  But there’s another aspect to consider.

Looking at the Rockies current roster, they have an abundance of speed guys (Rutledge, Young, Blackmon, and Fowler) and an abundance of guys with a low OBP (Rosario, Arenado, Rutledge, Young, Herrera, Blackmon, and Brignac).  If all we are looking to do is roll over the lineup, Helton should hit eighth, but then we increase the odds of a double play (even on bunts, with the slow running Helton).  Helton is also driving in more runs per plate appearance than everyone on the team except Tulowitzki (Tulo is at .3 R/PA; Helton at .2 R/PA; everyone is below .2 R/PA).  So, the argument calling for an RBI guy eighth is sound, except given those numbers one could argue that Helton really should be hitting fifth or sixth to maximize RBI situations.  And, if we put him behind a bunch of guys who aren’t getting on base much, the RBI chances go down.

Given that information and the current construction of the roster, the most advantageous lineup will be the one with Helton batting sixth or seventh and speed guys in the second and eighth spots.  That is unless you simply don’t care.

Continue reading »]]> The Rockies dropped to third place in the NL West after finishing their home stand a disappointing 2-4 and following that up by losing 2 of 3 in St. Louis.  The pitching struggles came from unexpected sources with Matt Belisle, Jhoulys Chacin, and Rafael Betancourt all recording losses.  Despite Nolan Arenado’s arrival and Todd Helton’s return, the offense also collapsed; averaging just 3.2 R/game over the last three series (4.8 R/game for the season).  Troy Tulowitzki was held out of 3 games due to leg soreness and his absence contributed to Rockies struggles at home – both in run scoring and run prevention.  Here, we take a closer look at Tulowitzki: his playing time, back-up, and future.

1. Are the Rockies too cautious in their handling of Tulowitzki’s recent injuries?

Brendan: No.  Tulo is a major difference maker for the Rockies and it is critical to keep him healthy for the entire year.  If keeping Tulo healthy for August and September means that he can only log 120 games, then that is the cost of doing business with the best shortstop in the game.  As a fan, it is always disappointing to watch a game (especially at the ball park) only to find that Tulo is being held out of the lineup for something as lame as “leg soreness.”  However, I believe that the Rockies are right in taking the long-view with Tulo and doing everything possible to keep him healthy.  The Rockies are a noticeably better team when Tulo is on the field, and I for one would rather see him sit out twice a week in May and June if that will help keep him in the lineup later in the summer.

Kevin: When healthy, Tulowitzki is by far the best player on the team and possibly a top 15 player in all of baseball. Tulo has four seasons in which his WAR exceeded 5; by comparison, Cargo has reached a WAR of 5 just once. The Rockies have started the season well, and forcing a banged up Tulo to play an afternoon game in freezing cold weather is begging for him to get hurt long-term, and such an injury would completely derail the season.

Ned:  Not at all.  Tulo is a once in a generation shortstop—superb defender who hits for power and average.  Think the Yankees would like to have Tulo?  If they did, the eastern press would herald him as  the new Jeter but with a Mickey Mantle bat..  The left leg/groin is an issue that needs to be handled wisely, and not pushed.  Further damage could end his career, at least at shortstop.  Given the muscle pulling issues that the Rockies’ players have had over the years (e.g., obliques, lower backs, groins and hamstrings), why isn’t the team looking at its training staff and asking if the stretching regimens need modification?

2. Who is the best candidate to back-up Tulowitzki?

Brendan: DJ LeMahieu.  The back-up plan for Tulo becomes much more important when considered in the context of Tulo only playing 120-130 games.  That leaves about a quarter of the season for the replacement and the Rockies need to find a real contributor, not just a fill-in.  The regular need for the back-up to play takes Rutledge out of the equation because he needs to focus on being the everyday second baseman.  Herrera and Brignac are both more suited to stop-gap appearances, not being regular contributors.  DJ LeMahieu can play every infield position (making him a viable 6^th infielder) and is hitting .358 with a .906 OPS in AAA.  LeMahieu would easily replace both Herrera and Brignac, which would open up a roster spot for a 5^th outfielder like Blackmon (once Cuddy returns from the DL) or Colvin.  I expect the Rockies to keep sending Herrera out there, but I think LeMahieu would be a better option.

Kevin: Jonathan Herrera, DJ LeMahieu, Josh Rutledge, and Reid Brignac are all weak choices, but the Rockies must choose one. Rutledge is a poor defensive shortstop, so the Rockies should keep him at second. LeMahieu has played two major league games at shortstop, so he is out, irrespective of whether he deserves it. That trims the candidates to Herrera and Brignac. Both suck. They play OK defense at shortstop, but neither can hit. I’ll take Brignac just because I don’t know why the Rockies have kept Herrera around for five plus years.

Ned:   Jonathan Herrera is a nice defensive substitute, but has never been able to hit a lick.  Likewise, Brignac can’t hit above the Mendoza line.  The best candidate in the farm system is LeMahieu who, while not Tulo at the plate, is nevertheless serviceable defensively and who can hit a little.  He is no Tulo, but who is?  Can Weiss still play?

3. True or False: The Rockies should move Tulowitzki away from short stop.

Brendan: False.  The true value of Tulo lies in his game-changing presence at the plate and in the field.  Moving Tulo away from short would give the Rockies an average shortstop (at best) and a plus bat with an injury history at a different position.  That does not strike me as a particularly good outcome.  Even in the event of a position change, I still expect Tulo to be handled very cautiously and I would be surprised to see him play more than 140 games.  Getting 20 more games out of Tulo by sacrificing his defensive contributions is not enough of a return to inspire the change.  I think that the Rockies would be better off trading Tulo than trying to move him to another position.

Kevin: They need to give the idea serious consideration, given his propensity to get hurt. Sure, some of the injuries take place on while hitting or running the bases. But, one way to minimize the chances of him getting hurt is by lessening his exposure to injury while playing defense. Third has fewer plays than shortstop, so moving Tulo to third could keep him the lineup while reducing his chances of getting hurt. Sure, playing third base would reduce his positive defensive impact, but it would be better to have him as a third baseman than injured. The Rockies shouldn’t move him this year, but depending on how Trevor Story progresses, it’s time to start thinking about Tulo as a third baseman. (Note: this logic suggests the Rockies should also consider playing Tulo at first base or left field. The Rockies should consider those positions as well).     

Ned:  All of the discussion about moving Tulo is predicated on the assumption that shortstop is the most physically stressful position on the team.  Why do we think that short is any tougher on the body than, for example, center where quick bursts, top speed sprinting and launching cannon throws are the norm?  Historically, players have been moved out of short when their natural aging and physical development has resulted in a stronger but slower body—not because of the physical stress of the position.  As Tulo ages and matures physically and begins to slow, he would be a perfect first baseman with his height, reflexes and glove.

Have a different take? Let us know in the comments below.

Got an idea for a future 3U3D discussion?  Email us at BlakeStBulletin@gmail.com

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It's hard not to like Cuddy as a fan. He is great with the fans and hustles his butt off in the field and on the bases. But would Beltran have been better for the team?

Prior to the 2012 season the Colorado Rockies were looking for an outfielder to replace the Seth Smith/Ryan Spilborghs combo in right field. The best player available was Carlos Beltran who had just made a big impact with the San Francisco Giants after being traded mid-season from the New York Mets. Many Rockies fans wanted the team to go after Beltran and figured he could be had for cheap since he has been known for being an injury risk. Instead the organization signed Michael Cuddyer to a three year 30 million dollar deal.

Many thought that Cuddy was overpaid and when the Cardinals signed Beltran for two yeas and $26 million you can count me as one of the fans who thought the Rockies made the wrong decision. Don’t get me wrong, I have loved the energy and enthusiasm Cuddy has brought to the team but if playing time (Cuddy being more reliable than Beltran) was one of the reasons the Rockies signed Cuddy over Beltran, I am guessing that hasn’t turned out to be correct.

After watching Beltran hit another home run against the Rockies and Cuddy on the bench I figured I would check to see who has played more games since the start of 2012. My hunch is that Beltran has been on the field more often.

Checking my favorite site, baseball-reference.com, I see that Beltran has played in 184 games since the start of 2012 and Cuddy has played in 132 games. So much for Cuddy being the “safe and reliable” option.

Might as well keep comparing…

Since 2012 Beltran is hitting .276/.345/.507 with 41 home runs, 29 doubles and one triple. He has an OPS+ of 131 and 338 total bases. According to BR.com he has been worth 4.8 wins above replacement and his defense has been almost dead average.

Since 2012 Cuddy is hitting .275/.334/.512 with 23 home runs, 38 doubles and three triples. He has an OPS+ of 111 and 244 total bases. According to BR.com he has been worth 1.7 wins above replacement and his defense has been worth nearly -1.5 wins above replacement (costing the team a win and a half).

Defensive metrics are what they are – flawed, but I don’t think anyone will argue that Cuddy has been all that great in the field. But when looking at their triple slashes they have been just about the same player. Cuddy hasn’t the ball over the fence at the same rate as Beltran but he has hit the ball with power producing more doubles. Imagine Beltran in Coors Field.

This season isn’t over yet and possibly Beltran gets hurt and misses a bunch of time. Or maybe Cuddy misses more time with this disc/neck issue. I won’t say that the Rockies didn’t get a good player when they signed Cuddyer, but he hasn’t been worth 10 million a year for three years. Yet. Beltran, on the other hand, has been worth this 13 million a year.

Continue reading »]]> There are plenty of Rockies fans who hate the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Rockies don’t really have a rival, in my mind, so depending on which fan you ask you may get a different response to the question “which NL West team is the biggest rival to the Rockies?”

I bet you get a lot of folks who say Arizona who remember Eric Byrnes and 2007 like it was yesterday. A lot will say the San Francisco Giants because of their recent dominance in the division. And everyone hates big spenders like the New York Yankees, so what happens when a mega-spender is in the same division? Hate the Dodgers. The Padres? Well, no one hates them because they never win.

But as much as you might hate the Los Angeles Dodgers and think Matt Kemp is silly for dating Rhianna at one point (a bigger character flaw, if you ask me, than playing for the Dodgers), you have to like him for this.

Ready the full article on Yahoo!.

Click here to view the video on YouTube.

Continue reading »]]> Take all of this for what it is worth – a real small sample size – but it is pretty apparent that the Rockies have a few studs and thankfully they finally made the switch at third base. All stats (pictures) come from Fangraphs.com. (Click on them to make them bigger)

The first picture is comparing all of the Rockies who have played third base this year. Arendao has been a whiz at third with his glove making spectacular plays and his bat has already outpaced the likes of Chris Nelson in a weeks time and half as many plate appearances. (BTW, Nelson was traded to the New York Yankees for a player to be named later.) Even if Arenado doesn’t hit another home run all season he has hit more than Nelson will for the rest of the year – and maybe the rest of his career? Look at those differences in wRC+ and the fielding metric in WAR!

We all know Troy Tulowitzki is the best shortstop in baseball, but watch out for the kid in Arizona. Didi Gregorius is a stud and the center piece in a nine-player trade this offseason in which the Diamondbacks sent Trevor Bauer to Cleveland. Even with the time missed Tulo is leading the SS WAR race even with a horrid base running metric. But, much like Arenado in Denver, Gregorius is crushing the ball in his first week of play.

Finally, check out the top outfielders early in the year. There is Dexter Fowler ahead of guys like Ryan Braun, Mike Trout and his teammate Carlos Gonzalez. If Dex can stay healthy he truly has a chance to breakout this year and become one of the top outfielders in all of baseball.

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Roy Oswalt

One month is officially in the books and the Rockies are in first place in the NL West with a 17-11 mark.  Importantly, the Rockies are 8-8 on the road with a +8 run differential including 6 road wins against divisional foes.  The team made some interesting personnel moves prior to commencing interleague play this week: Roy Oswalt was signed to a minor league deal, Chris Nelson was traded to the Yankees, and Nolan Arenado made his much anticipated major league debut.  Here, we discuss the Oswalt signing, what we expect from Arenado, and if it is time to revise season expectations.

1. What does the Roy Oswalt signing mean for the starting pitchers?

Brendan: Better depth. I believe that an organization needs to have 7 or 8 pitchers capable of starting to make it through a whole season.  Between injuries and poor performance, 5 pitchers are never enough.Add Oswalt to the Chatwood-Pomeranz-Friedrich-Cook back-up quartet and the Rockies are looking at a whole staff of reserves.  Oswalt struggled last year with the Rangers, posting some of the worst numbers of his career (5.80 ERA; 1.525 WHIP).  Even more troublesome is the fact his ground ball rate has been in decline over the past several seasons (0.99 to 0.85 to 0.82) resulting in elevated H/9 and HR/9 (12.1 and 1.7, respectively).  The numbers are ugly, but my biggest concern is that Oswalt’s presence will take a rotation spot away from deserving young player like Pomeranz or Chatwood.Even with the early success, the Rockies need to use this season to see what they have in the young guys to make decisions going forward.  Despite my concerns, I like the signing and it is exciting to watch the Rockies actively try to improve their most obvious weakness.

Kevin: Things are a changin’. By June, it is possible that the only starters remaining from the opening day rotation could be Chacin and De La Rosa. The way things are going, Francis and Nicasio have shown they need to be replaced. Fortunately, Chatwood is readily available to replace Nicasio. That leaves Francis and Garland at the back of the rotation. The Rockies have the pieces to upgrade both spots, but cutting ties with both Garland and Francis would take away from the rotation’s depth. I suspect that after replacing Nicasio with Chatwood, O’Dowd & Co. replace Francis with Oswalt. That leaves Garland in the rotation, with Pomeranz waiting in the wings for the next injury or melt down.

Ned: Oswalt’s signing puts the job of no starting pitcher in jeopardy since he won’t be ready to pitch for at least three weeks.  While the move is smart and virtually no risk, let’s not lose sight of the fact that it akin to putting a very used junkyard engine into your family car.  It might work for a while, but it is not what you would do if you could afford a new engine.  The signing says that the Rockies, like us, are very suspicious of the starting rotation, and are looking for reinforcements from wherever.  It also says that Oswalt, who surely had other clubs looking to sign him, thinks two things about the Rockies:  1—The team appears to have legitimate contender aspirations at this stage of the season; and 2—the rotation is fragile and will need replacements throughout the season.

2. Where will Nolan Arenado have the biggest impact?

Brendan: Extending the lineup.  Arenado makes an already potent offense even better.  Adding his bat in the 6 or 7 spot in the order will make it very difficult on opposing pitchers.  Like all young players, I expect Arenado to have some consistency issues, but he should be a big upgrade over what the Rockies have been putting at third for the last few years.  His presence in the lineup could also have trickle down effects: hitting behind Rosario should help Wilin to see some more fastballs on which to feast, and hitting in front of Rutledge should result in more RBI opportunities.  Third base has been a black hole for the Rockies, and Arenado has the potential to single handedly turn a weakness into a strength.  I can’t wait to see what the kid can do.

Kevin: Nelson was at best a mediocre hitter and fielder, and Arenado will be an upgrade both offensively and defensively. However, Arenado’s most immediate impact will be on defense. Although Arenado will become a force offensively, he might need some time to adjust to MLB pitching. Defense requires less adjusting, and his defense should immediately be better than Chris Nelson’s. This year’s defense on the left side of the infield should be substantially better than last year’s.

Ned: Defense at third.  Despite his fielding error last Wednesday he is a significant defensive upgrade at third. Watching his lateral movement, his soft glove, and his quick throw to first confirm why scouts rated Arenado as the top prospect in the organization.  He has struggled offensively in the early games, but in fairness he has been robbed of hits three times during his first week with the Rockies (such is baseball).  The best thing about Arenado is his body language—the kid does not lack for confidence.  He should be able to translate that confidence to results on the field.  The biggest negative about Arenado is Scott Boras, his agent.  Can you spell Matt Holliday?  Let us hope that he will take Cargo’s lead by overruling Boras to ultimately stay with the club.

3. After watching the Rockies for a month, have your expectations for the season changed?

Brendan: Yes. Coming into the season I thought this team was a 70-75 win type of club.  I now believe this is more like an 80 win ball club.  The offense is loaded with plenty of bats waiting in the Springs in case someone goes down.  The pitching has been the most importantdifference from last season, and it is a deep staff with several viable reinforcements at AAA.  The coaching staff has the team playing loose and Weiss has been getting much better with his bullpen management.  The Rockies have passed every test (except that sweep in SF) this year and continue to impress.  It took until May 25^th last year for the Rockies to record win 17, so they are already almost a month ahead of last year’s pace.  As long as Tulo and CarGo stay healthy, this team should be able to hang around .500 and then anything can happen.

Kevin: Yes. Originally I expected this team to win 70 to 75 games. Now I expect this team to contend for the playoffs. Sure, maybe that is completely delusional, but I do not care, and I thoroughly enjoyed the first month of the season. This team is much healthier than last year, it has more swagger than recent years, the lineup is a force, the pitching is solid (famous last words), the defense is better than last year, and the organization has depth to absorb injuries to position players. All aboard the delusion train!              

Ned: No.  I still expect a Cub-like June swoon from our guys, but am holding out hope that it doesn’t happen.  The starting pitching has held together much better than anyone expected.  If Chacin is able to return next week in full form, he will have a significant positive impact on the starting pitching.  Chatwood plugged the hole created by Chacin’s absence very well, but Chatwood probably isn’t yet a long term addition to the rotation.  Although it is a high anxiety event every time Nicasio and Francis take the mound, the club has struggled through most of their appearances thanks to the strong bullpen.  Nevertheless, after one month of play, few knowledgeable fans would have expected the Rockies to be tied for the best record in the National League.

 Have a different take? Let us know in the comments below.

Got an idea for a future 3U3D discussion?  Email us at BlakeStBulletin@gmail.com

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Mets players "warming up" and playing catch in the snow. Thanks to Thomas Harding for the picture.

Besides the eternally optimistic (and smoke-blowing) Dick Monfort, did anyone think the Rockies would end April on top of the NL West?  Heck, did anyone think they would even be at .500, much less 16-11?  This was a 98-loss team whose biggest off-season acquisition was a middle reliever.  Even die-hard Rockies fans were predicting another season in which the team would flirt with 100 losses, never see the right side of .500 or sniff first place after the first week.  In case you haven’t been following the team, here’s the good, the bad, and the ugly from the first month of the season.  You can decide which is which.

The biggest move of the offseason wasn’t a trade, free agent signing, or contract extension, it was the backstop being moved six feet closer to home plate.  This was done with hardly any media attention and will serve two purposes – one to get the fans a little closer to the action and the other to help negate the myriad of wild pitches and passed balls expected from Wilin Rosario.  The down side of this move is Dinger’s head looking that much larger to whoever is pitching the ninth inning.

Speaking of moves, the biggest player move the Rockies made was trading starting pitcher Alex White to Houston for middle relief pitcher Wilton Lopez.  On the surface, this seemed like an incredibly stupid trade, as Alex White is only 23 years old and very recently a highly ranked prospect.  On the other hand, Lopez is a middle reliever whose arm may or not fall off, depending on who you ask.  As it turns out, White will miss the entire season and some of 2014 due to Tommy John surgery and Lopez has been anything but the groundball-inducing, run preventing monster he was being touted as.  Lopez is currently sporting a 6.17 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and been shellacked for 21 hits in 11 innings.  You be the judge on who’s gotten the worse end of the deal so far.

On the positive side of player acquisitions are the dumping of Ramon Hernandez and Jon Garland falling into the Rockies’ lap.  Getting rid of Hernandez and his $3.2 million salary was fantastic, yet somehow the Rockies convinced the Dodgers to throw in $1 million on top of it.  However, Garland has been the real find.  He’s gone at least six innings in all five of his starts and would be 5-for-5 in quality starts if not for a beating from the Braves in sub-zero temperatures.

And, how about that weather?  Due to exceptionally strange weather (even for Colorado) in April, the Rockies spent more time shoveling snow than playing baseball.  Three cancelled games later, they ended up playing two double headers in two weeks in 20+ degree weather.  Naturally, a lot of whiny writers and some equally whiny team executives complained about being “forced” to “play baseball.”  I think I speak for everyone who doesn’t get paid to play a game, write about a game, or manage a game for a living to bite me.

Everyone’s big complaint about the offseason was that the Rockies didn’t make any acquisitions to strengthen the team.  In fact, most people viewed the team as weaker after the Rockies lost Josh Roenicke on waivers and traded Matt Reynolds away.  The response from the front office was that the team would be better simply by getting back all of the players lost to injury during 2012, namely Troy Tulowitzki, Jhoulys Chacin, Todd Helton, Juan Nicasio, Michael Cuddyer, and Jorge De La Rosa.  They said if those guys stay healthy, they believe the team will be competitive in 2013.  So, was anyone really surprised when Chacin and Helton both hit the disabled list and Tulo scared everyone by jarring his shoulder on a slide at home plate, causing him to miss a couple of games?  Nicasio and De La Rosa better stay away from those guys lest they catch the injury bug again as well.

With those injuries, there is good news and bad news.  The good news is the team has survived in the short term without those guys (though any more than two days without Tulo is more than anyone wants to think about).  Jordan Pacheco is proving that last year was no fluke, hitting .339 with a .391 OBP and Tyler Chatwood has turned in two decent starts in place of Chacin.  The bad news is Chacin was rolling at 3-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.89 WHIP and interruptions like injuries tend to derail streaks like that.  Here’s hoping this isn’t one of those times.  In addition, Helton was heating up at the plate, raising his average from .095 to .268, with three doubles, one home run, and eight RBI in the seven games before his mysterious forearm injury.

Dex trotting the bases

As expected, the lineup really is hitting better with Tulo back healthy and Dante Bichette as the hitting coach.  Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, and Rosario are hitting exactly as everyone predicted, but the surprises have been Cuddyer and Rutledge.  Rutledge is surprising in a negative way, as he is struggling quite a bit at the plate with a slash line of .229/.292/.354.  On the flip side, Cuddyer has been crushing the ball at .316/.382/.561, though this really shouldn’t be that much of a surprise – that’s what he was signed for.  What’s nice is that it’s shut up all the people who screamed that he absolutely had to be traded.

Equally unexpected has been the performance of the pitching staff.  With the exception of Lopez, the bullpen has been near perfect, though people are giving Betancourt far too much credit for his eight saves as he has yet to enter a ninth inning with less than a two run lead (one save came when he entered with a four run lead, two outs, and two on in the ninth inning).  That’s not to take anything away from Betancourt; just pointing out that he’s not exactly pitching in high leverage situations.  But the starters have been the real story so far, as they are walking fewer hitters, giving up fewer runs, and pitching deeper into games (because they deserve to and not just because the 75-pitch count, four-man rotation idiocy is gone).  They’ve already racked up fourteen quality starts against twenty-seven all of last season.  Having said that, Nicasio and Francis need to get better as both of them are pitching worse than their career norms so far.

So what can the Rockies do to avoid a repeat of 2011 – when they started off 17-8 in April, then only won eight games in May – or avoid meeting the 100-loss expectations of some?  To begin with, they’ve already taken one step by finally cutting the cord on Chris Nelson and bringing up top prospect Nolan Arenado.  Nelson was given every chance to prove his worth and earn the starting third base job and failed.  He temporarily fooled people by putting up great second half numbers in 2012, but regressed back to the replacement level player he has proven himself to be.  Arenado is an upgrade both offensively and defensively, not to mention was inevitable after Arenado’s spring and start in AAA.  As I write this, news broke that the Rockies were able to work out a trade with the Yankees, receiving a player to be named later and cash in exchange for Nelson.  In all seriousness, good luck to Nelson; maybe a change of scenery will be a good thing for his career.

Nelson isn’t the only guy they should consider cutting ties with.  If the team is truly going to stay competitive, then Francis should be on an extremely short leash.  Count me as one who thinks Francis still has some good starts left in him, but a couple more disastrous starts should push him to the bullpen or the released list to make way for Chatwood or whichever young pitcher in Colorado Springs has earned a call-up.

They also need to keep preventing runs through their improved defensive play and better pitching.  So far they are allowing 4.30 runs/game versus 5.49 runs/game last year.  Couple that with the offense scoring 5.22 runs/game vs. 4.68 runs/game last year and this is suddenly a very competitive team.  If the Rockies can tighten up their horrifying base running and see continued improvement out of Rosario behind the plate, that ratio will get even better.

Perhaps most importantly, the team needs to continue playing with a chip on its shoulder for all of the people who wrote them off before the season began (including me).  They need to keep the attitude that they should be winning rather than trying not to lose.  They need to do everything they can to give Helton one last shot at the playoffs.  They need to stop using Coors Field as an excuse for losing and make it a reason for winning.  Finally, they need to continue picking themselves back up off the mat whenever one of the elite teams gives them a whooping.  The longer they can do all of those things, the longer the season will remain interesting.  And, if we’re lucky, maybe another snow out or two in October.

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Nelson was a liability in the field for the Rockies

In 71 plate appearances in 2013 Chris Nelson had a total of three extra-base hits and none of those three went over the fence.

In 664 plate appearances with the Rockies in total, spanning four seasons, Nelson had hit 13 home runs for the Rockies.

For all of the talk in the Root Sports broadcast booth about how good Nelson was at third base or how he hit for a high average, none of that is or was true. 664 plate appearances is basically one full season for a player who plays every day and hits at or near the top of a lineup. While it is hard to look at 664 plate appearances that span four seasons as one single season it can tell us what Nelson is, as a player: average. And when I say average I mean for a second baseman.

In those 664 plate appearances Nelson’s triple slash was .279/.322/.416. If we put those numbers against the numbers of the third basemen who qualified last year for batting titles Nelson’s average would rank 10^th out of 19 players, his on-base percentage would rank 15^th out of 19 and his slugging would rank 14^th out of 19. Pretty average, right? If we do the same but compare against second basemen he ranks 10^th out of 23 in average, 15/23 in OBP and 9/23 in slugging. Much better hitting profile as a second basemen.

It is pretty safe to say that as a third basemen Nelson is below par when it comes to hitting so for him to continue to get playing time he should be pretty good with the glove. He isn’t.

According to FanGraphs there were 31 players who accumulated at least 500 innings in the field at third base in 2012. When I sort those 31 players by Ultimate Zone Rating scaled to a 150 game season, Nelson ranks dead last among those third basemen. When sorting by range, he ranks 30^th out of 31. When sorting by fielding percentage he ranks 29^th out of 31. FanGraphs also lets the “fans” scout players and rank them on various defensive attributes, take this for what it is, and when looking at this data the fans have Nelson ranked 33^rd out of 44 third basemen ranked.

No matter how you slice it Nelson is not a good fielder. He couldn’t hack it at second base and even when moved to a less important (and supposedly easier) defensive position he still couldn’t carry his weight.

Chris Nelson was a light hitting second baseman – all average, no pop and no on-base – posing as a third baseman with a bad glove in the field. It shouldn’t take much to bump him off of the team.

Enter Nolan Arenado.

Yesterday on Twitter Tracy Ringolsby said with the utmost certainty that Arenado was not kept in the minor leagues for the first 20 or so games of the season to keep his service time down. I find that very hard to believe. Since the Rockies kept him in the minor leagues for as long as they did in 2013 (which wasn’t very long in the grand scheme of a full season) the Rockies now have control over Arenado until 2019 as opposed to 2018 if he had broken camp with the team to start the season.

I think it is a bit of both.

I think the Rockies front office, much like everyone else, figured the team would stink in 2013. Sure the squad can hit, but no one thought they could pitch like they have. Most people figured the starting rotation would look more like Jeff Francis than Jorge De La Rosa or Jhoulys Chacin. If the team is going to stink in 2013 why rush Arenado? Let him play more in the minor leagues and develop AND get more years of control over him before he is eligible for free agency.

Then came the season and the smoking hot start for the Rockies. The team is hitting, as expected, but the rotation is also doing pretty darn well. Take away some ghastly starts from Francis and the rotation has been solid and good luck finding anyone who thinks otherwise. Now what do the Rox do? At this point they might as well keep Arenado in the minor leagues for a few more days to retain that extra year of rights. There was no denying he deserved a shot at the big leagues: he was batting .364/.392/.667 at the time of his call to the Rockies. As stated above; Chris Nelson wasn’t doing anything to keep Arenado from the club. While those stats by Arenado were in a very hitter friendly environment there just wasn’t any reason to keep him off of the big club at this point. If anything his glove is worth at least a few wins in 2013 over Nelson.

Expect more of this: Arenado giving high-5's after hitting bombs.

Arenado finally got his chance on Sunday to join the Rockies and the team made the decision to designate Nelson (which means teams can sign him if they choose and if no one signs him he will go to AAA for the Rockies).

Arenado made a quiet entrance with the Rockies on Sunday but last night he exploded by going 3-for-6 with his first career home run, two driven in and three runs scored as the Rockies pounded the Los Angeles Dodgers in LA – something that doesn’t happen often.

The Rockies are now 16-10 and hold a one game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks. It is early in the season, real early, but these games now count just as much as the ones in August and September. By adding Arenado the Rockies make their team better – markedly better. Where the team was in a rebuilding mode or a mode of waiting for young potential to develop to start the season, now the team is suddenly looking at making a splash in 2013 and will expect its young players to contribute – now.

Now if the team could just find a pitcher to bump Francis off of the team…