Apr 03

The Limited Exposure Hypothesis

The Rockies experiment with a four-man rotation was perhaps the strangest development during the disastrous 2012 season.  Widely mocked, the four-man rotation with its 75 pitch limit did not last long and the Rockies are on the record as going forward this year with a traditional 5 man rotation with a 90-100 pitch limit.  What has not received enough attention was the motivation behind making the change in the first place.  Was the goal to limit injuries? Play to a strength of the team (the bullpen)? Perhaps the most compelling reason for the low pitch limit was to restrict the amount of times a starting pitcher must face the opposing team.  As a pitcher progresses through the lineup multiple times, his performance tends to decline.  This happens for any number of reasons including pitcher fatigue and batter experience: a slider at pitch 87 is going be more hittable than at pitch 11, especially when a batter is seeing it for a third or fourth time.  This notion is also supported statistically:

The theory of increasing pitching efficiency by limiting lineup exposure was formally presented in March 2011 by Greg Rubin at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.  Rubin theorized that using a pair of starters each pitching 4 innings is more effective than a single ace.  Rubin’s calculations led to the conclusion that a paired pitching strategy would reduce the runs allowed by a pitching staff by 96 runs over the course of the season.  The four-man rotation from the Rockies was – intentional or not – a real world test of Rubin’s hypothesis.  As we know, the physical demands from the Rockies’ implementation attempt were too great: the starters were unable to stay healthy with just 3 days between starts.  However, the failure of the four-man rotation does not mean that the limiting exposure strategy is inherently flawed.  This may seem obvious, but it is an important distinction to make:  paired pitching or a four-man rotation are only ways to implement a limited exposure strategy.  The overarching idea behind the strategy is bigger than any one attempt at implementation. Read the rest of this entry »

Apr 02

I’m looking at Game 1 as a positive

Dex trotting the bases after his game-tying HR late

I watched nine hours of straight baseball yesterday. It. Was. Awesome. It started early with the Yankees and Red Sox, two teams sure to fight for last place in the AL East, or so I can hope and finished with watching some of the Cardinals and Diamondbacks in bed before falling asleep around 8:30 or so. In the middle was a Cubs win and a Rockies game that I look at very positively.

Look, the Rockies are going to lose 90 games or more this year, we know this. Right? Their pitching is awful and have some serious holes at third and first and if history tells us anything then either Troy Tulowitzki or Carlos Gonzalez will spend at least 15 days on the DL this year. CarGo has never played more than 145 games in a year and the year he played in 145 games Tulo only played in 122. In 2011 Tulo played in 143 games and CarGo played in 127. 2011 was the year in which these two played in the most combined games. This team will stink.

But I want to look at yesterday as a positive. I think this season will be a lot more fun than most expect.

Many look at 2013 and think it’s going to be 162 games of bummer. 162 games of watching the Rockies get spanked. 162 games of watching the pitching allow 10 runs a game. 162 games of watching the starting pitcher get the hook in the fourth inning….and that is still an inning too late. 162 games of watching the team struggle at the plate with runners in scoring position, especially on the road. I think that will not be the case. Read the rest of this entry »

Apr 01

Opening Day Wishlist

20 years ago, 80,000 plus fans showed up to watch Major League Baseball in Colorado. It's been a wild ride since.

Today marks the 20th year of Major League Baseball being played in Colorado.  That’s a remarkable thing.  I still remember visiting Colorado as a kid and getting all excited about the new baseball team with the cool colors and logo.  Twenty years later, I never could have guessed how my relationship with this team would provide so many memorable life moments and incredibly maddening times as well.  Unfortunately, the last two seasons have been mostly loaded with frustration.    To some extent, all the losing has taken a little bit of the anticipation out of this season.  Usually I’m fired up in February, but it took until mid-March before I really dove into baseball this year.  Regardless, for at least one day, none of that matters.  It’s Opening Day and that’s cause for celebration – no matter if your team is great or awful.

It may not seem like it from that intro, but I am cautiously optimistic about the 2013 Rockies.  That’s not to say I think they’re going to the World Series, but I do think they have a good chance to be better than they were last year.  In the end, I suppose improvement is all any of us can ask for.  Beyond just wins and losses there are several things I’m hoping to see happen this year for the Rockies.  In fact, there are ten.  Here is a list in no particular order:

Wilin Rosario learns how to catch

Rosario has to get significantly better behind the dish.  I hate the idea of moving him to another position, but if there isn’t improvement on the defensive end, the Rockies may not have a choice.  When the Rockies win (see 2007, 2009, and 2010), great defense is always part of the equation.  It’s the one real way you can neutralize Coors Field.  Last year, they were atrocious defensively, and their young catcher was a big part of that.  It starts with him.

Nolan Arenado takes the next step

If feels like we’ve been waiting on Arenado forever, so it’s easy to forget that he will turn 22 in a couple of weeks.  Mike Trout and Bryce Harper aside, that’s young.  He is still very green on the diamond and emotionally.  It didn’t make sense to start the season with him in the bigs because of MLB’s Super 2 rules, but we will see him this summer.  The most important thing with him will be patience, both from the organization and the fans.  He has a chance to be a special player.  Hopefully we see some of that this year.

Dexter Fowler makes the All-Star team

For the first time in his career, Dexter’s spot on this team is firmly secured.  He doesn’t have to worry about being sent down to the minors anymore, and after the front office refused to trade him this offseason (something I’m glad about) he should feel confident that won’t happen either.  Last year, was a break out year for the rangy centerfielder, but he still has his detractors.  Coming off the best spring of his career will hopefully vault Dex into a hot start and spot in the All-Star game.  A dynamic centerfielder is important at Coors Field and we’ve been watching one grow up in front of us every night.  I think this is the year he officially arrives as an elite NL outfielder. Read the rest of this entry »

Mar 30

3 Up 3 Down: Drinking the Kool-Aid Season Preview

Spring is officially here: longer days, warmer nights, and the Rockies are still in contention!  Yep, opening day is officially upon us and hope springs eternal (or so we are supposed to believe).  The lingering disappointment from the 2012 season is still heavy in the mountain air, but 2013 is all about new beginnings (bonus points for getting the movie reference).  Although the 2013 Rockies are not much different than the 2012 version, just about everything that could go wrong last year did – and that is not likely to happen again.  Here, we attempt to get psyched up for a new season by looking at the strengths of the team, who should be starting at third, and what are the criteria for defining a successful season.

What do you consider the 2013 Rockies’ biggest strength?

Brendan: The bats up the middle.  The Rockies’ offense in general should be the strength of the team, but the foundation of that strength will come from the middle of the diamond.  Many teams depend on corner positions (3B, 1B, LF, RF) for offensive production with middle positions (C, 2B, SS, CF) being more defense-oriented.  Not this club.  Production from the corners should be below average to average (even with CarGo lifting all boats) but the hitting from up the middle should be great.  Rosario, Rutledge, Tulo, and Fowler could approach 100 homeruns combined, and they will need to be the driving force behind the Rockies run scoring.  If this club is going to have a chance at being competitive, they are going to have to consistently score 5+ runs and production from the guys up the middle is essential.

Kevin: The Rockies have a strong core of young position players. Tulowitzki, Gonzalez, Fowler, Colvin, Rosario, Rutledge, and Young are all quality players who range from superstar to decent. They are all 28-years-old or younger, meaning they are either in their primes or approaching their primes. They all can hit. Some of them play excellent defense, others play terrible defense.  This group of players is better than most national pundits realize (fingers crossed I’m right), and they give the Rockies the best chance to win this year and in the next few years.

Ned: Pitching.  No, not the starters, but the bullpen.  Betancourt has proven to be a reliable closer.  Brothers has a devastatingly powerful arm.  He can turn hitters into statues.  With another year in the major leagues, he should be ready to be dominant—and not just against lefties.  Hopefully Ottavino can continue to show the reliability we saw in July and August last year.  Volstad, who had a strong spring, looks like nice addition.  Matt Belisle is a terrific set-up man.  Escalona, who has had a good Spring, remains a question mark.  Last year, he was hit hard in his relatively short times with the Rockies.  But the guy who should be the bullpen star is Wilton Lopez.  If he is as good during the regular season as he has looked this Spring, no one will remember the name Alex White.  As bad as the starters will probably be, this team will definitely need a very strong bullpen. Read the rest of this entry »

Mar 29

2013 prediction sure to be wrong

Kershaw, 2013 Cy Young Winner, leads the Dodgers to the NLCS

Every year I love to put out my own predictions piece (here is last year’s) and I am mostly always wrong. For those who like to point out how dumb I am; bookmark this so you can use it later this season.

Division winners

National League

West: Los Angeles Dodgers: I don’t think it will be close. Marco Scutaro will not be as good in 2013 as he was at the end of 2012 for the Giants and the Dodgers have too much fire power on offense and pitching to be beat this year. Giants take second and one of the NL Wild Cards, Diamondbacks third and the Padres edge out the Rockies to stay out of the basement.

Central: Cincinnati Reds: I don’t like the St. Louis Cardinals pieces as much in 2013, I think the extra year will wear on some of their older players. The Reds are going to hit a ton and win the division by five or more games. The Cardinals will finish in second and well ahead of the Cubs, Pirates and Brewers who will all fight for last place. Read the rest of this entry »

Mar 28

Last Minute Observations

Can Fowler repeat 2012 at the plate?

Note – as of this writing, the Rockies had not started the game played on March 27.

With three games left for the Rockies in spring training, just about the only thing we know for sure for the upcoming season is that the Rockies will, in fact, field a roster with 25 humans; none of which are named Jamie or Moyer. Every other off-season question mark remains, as virtually nothing has been answered by what has transpired during the spring. Who is going to play third base? Is the starting rotation going to last through May before calling the doctor? Is Tulowitzki going to continue his bizarre pattern of non-injury odd-numbered years? Who is the backup catcher? Is this Helton’s final year? Is Fowler for real or a one-season wonder? Is Rosario going to try actually catching the ball this year? Is anyone going to do something to rid us of the scourge known as Dinger?

I don’t have any answers either, but I do have some observations that will inspire both hope and fear for those seventeen fans who haven’t already written the season off as lost. So, get comfortable because this is going to take a while.

Hitting Read the rest of this entry »

Mar 25

The Rockies sign Jon Garland

Yesterday the Rockies singed Jon Garland to a Major League contract and the assumption is that he will take Drew Pomeranz’s spot in the rotation. Apparently the Rockies aren’t too keen on Pomeranz’s spring and feel he would be better served to continue to work on his mechanics in the minor leagues. He has spent this past offseason working on his pitching mechanics to try to find the groove that made him a highly touted prospect when the Rockies traded for him in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade in 2011.

The first thing that comes to mind when I think of Jon Garland is that I owned him in fantasy baseball in his one and only really good season in the Major Leagues. In 2005 with the Chicago White Sox Garland pitched 221 innings and only allowed 212 hits and 47 walks for a 1.172 WHIP. 2005 was the only season in which Garland would finish the year with a WHIP under 1.31 and was one of three years in which he kept his ERA under 4.00.

Outside of 2005 Garland has been pretty darn average. Read the rest of this entry »

Mar 19

Some thoughts on the Rockies

Thanks to saltriverfields.com for the pic

I have a bunch of random thoughts flowing through my head and not sure each one deserves its own post. So here are a few things related to baseball and the Rockies….I am not sure how I can express how badly I cannot wait for April to arrive. Spring officially starts tomorrow and my family has been torturing me with emails and Facebook posts of them in Arizona playing golf, attending Spring Training games and drinking beer in shorts and t-shirts. I don’t like my family.

Coors and Salt River Fields at Talking Stick

Keith Olbermann has a great blog on MLB.com called Baseball Nerd and he has written quite a few things about the Cactus League over the last week or two, including this post. At the bottom of this post he says Read the rest of this entry »

Mar 14

First Impressions

Editor’s note. This was sent into our Supreme Master last week, but our Supreme Master was off vacationing in Maui! Why isn’t he watching every pitch of every Rockies Spring Training game? I asked the same question and all I got in return was some sort of Corona induced psycho babble. In any case, we feel this is still relevant and Kevin’s opinions and thoughts haven’t changed.

*********

Since Root Sports decided to air more than one spring training game this year, those of us who don’t have the time (or money) to venture to Arizona get some chances (six, to be exact) to see the team in spring training. After watching Mariners crush the Rockies 16-6 on Monday, these are my initial thoughts.

Juan Nicasio threw three innings and looked awful in giving up 3 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks, striking out 3. I say “threw” and not “pitched” because the man is a pitcher in title only. If anyone can tell me why the Rockies insist he is a starting pitcher, please educate me. He threw mostly fastballs and mixed in something that vaguely resembled a curveball. Starting pitchers need two plus pitches and a third decent one to be successful and Nicasio has one. To top that off, his control was nearly nonexistent, mostly due to his body being out of control. He is a reliever at best and appears to have no idea how to actually pitch. He just slings the ball at the plate and no one is sure where it is going. Read the rest of this entry »

Mar 08

Someone make Tulo a full body Evo Shield

And how about we keep all BASEballs away from Tulo’s, um, nether region.

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