Blake Street Bulletin

Wilder Card Round

First of all, I don’t consider the Wilder Card game to be the first round of the playoffs.  It feels more like a play-in game outside of the playoffs kind of like those two ridiculous play-in games in the NCAA tournament.  If anything, they cheapen the playoffs.  That being said, the Wilder Card displayed almost every negative thing possible said by its doubters (myself included).

Baltimore vs. Texas

This game would have happened regardless of the new format, as the two teams finished the season with 93-69 records.  As I wrote in an earlier column, the entire American League playoff race played out like it would have under the old format.  Four teams fighting for two divisions (six if you include Tampa Bay and the Angels) and ultimately, three playoff spots.  Texas losing this game put the finishing touch on a collapse that really hasn’t gotten enough attention.  Why didn’t it get more attention?  1 – Because Texas isn’t an East coast team.  Had this been the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, or Phillies, we would have heard more about it than this year’s elections.  2 – They “made the playoffs.”  Without the Wilder Card, they would have talked more about game 163 as the Rangers’ last chance to save their season.  Instead, we got a passing mention about how they blew the division by getting swept by the A’s at the end of the season.  This story should have been enormous – a team in the World Series the past two years coughing up a five game lead with nine to play.  Maybe it just happened so quick that nobody could react.  Even their no-show in the play-in game went by without much talk, though that may have had more to do with how boring the game was.

In losing 5-1, the Rangers never really threatened once the Orioles took the lead in the 6^th inning.  They had 7 runners in scoring position on the entire game and their number 3 and 4 hitters (Josh Hamilton and Adrian Beltre, respectively) went a combined 0-8; Hamilton with 2 strikeouts and grounding into a double play.  The Orioles weren’t much better, only putting 5 runners in scoring position, but they managed to cash in three of those while striking out 12 times.  This game was almost a total dud, and even though it would have happened under the old format, it still makes the Wilder Card oh-for-one.

St. Louis vs. Atlanta

This game is the first of many to come that will prove the idiocy of this format.  Forcing two unequal teams to play a 5- or 7-game series at least minimizes luck and misfortune.  A one-game playoff spits on the entire regular season, in this case saying that two teams separated by six games in the standings are actually equal.  Further compounding this stupidity is the fact that the Giants had the same record as the Braves.  So why weren’t they forced to play as well?  As advocates of this nonsense repeatedly say “if you don’t like it, win your division” (which the Giants did) as if geography is a valid reason to punish teams that performed better while playing in a tougher division.  Getting into the playoffs is the reward for winning a division; they shouldn’t get any more than that.

Having said that, this game is the epitome of dismissing a season, as the Braves played arguably their worst game all season.  In what will be known as the Infield Fly Rule Game, the Braves lost 6-3 by virtue of 3 errors and the worst umpiring call since Jim Joyce screwed Armando Galarraga out of a perfect game in 2010.  Regardless of what you believe cost Atlanta this game, it shows the inequity of a one game playoff and how luck can affect single games.  The worst thing is that it was Chipper Jones’ final game – where he went 1-for-5 at the plate (with a very weak infield single) and committed the most costly error of the three – a sad final memory of a great player.  Oh-for-two. Read the rest of this entry »

After losing to Detroit on June 17 and dropping to 25-40, the Rockies announced what would become the defining topic for the rest of the season – they would switch to a four-man rotation with a 75-pitch limit on the starters.  Furthermore, they introduced the concept of paired-pitching into the scheme – where a quasi-starter, or piggyback starter, would come in once the starter hit his pitch limit.  He, too, would be on a pitch count, limited to 40-45 pitches so as to be available every three days.  This whole idea was concocted by the Rockies’ GM, Dan O’Dowd, on the premise that it would combat the hypothetical effects of altitude adding extra wear on the pitchers and teach pitchers to throw more strikes.  What it actually was was an admission that the Rockies’ starting rotation was so atrocious that they’d rather have relievers taking up more innings than continue to trot Jaime Moyer and Jeremy Guthrie to the mound every five days.  This deployment of smoke and mirrors is a lot like what we see from our politicians every day and we can’t seem to get rid of any of them.

The hilarious part of this whole story is that by the end of August, people were actually buying what the politician was selling.  The Rockies went 18-10 from August 6 to September 4 to fuel a change in many people’s opinions, even though they had gone 12-28 prior to that run.  Even some of our own folks here at the Bulletin were starting to be persuaded, though not without a grain of salt. Read the rest of this entry »

The Rockies finished their home schedule with a sweep of the Cubs, only to be swept in LA by the sinking Dodgers.  The final three games in Arizona will determine if this club becomes the first Rockies team to lose 100 games.  One of the bright spots in an otherwise dismal year has been the play of Dexter Fowler.  Although he started slowly, Fowler leads the team in WAR (2.6 from baseball-reference.com) and is fulfilling the potential that he started to show during the second half of 2011.  The Rockies’ poor season has provided many young players with a chance to gain valuable experience and show what they can do during an extended try out.  Wilin Rosario and Jordan Pacheco have been solid contributors all year, but the second half emergence of Chris Nelson has been surprising.  Since the All-Star game, Nelson has a triple slash line of .352/.392/.519 for an OPS of .911 (OPS+ 151), making him a prime “this year’s Fowler” candidate.  Here, we discuss if Nelson can be the next Dex, look at Drew Pomeranz, and weigh in on the September call-ups.

True or false: Chris Nelson’s second half is the real deal and will continue into 2013.

Brendan: False.  I want to believe that this is real, but the facts are too inconvenient.  Here is the problem: his 2^nd half BAbip is a whopping .434 compared to .308 for the 1^st half.  That is in no way sustainable and indicates that he has been getting very lucky.  For comparison purposes, Fowler’s 2011 BAbip broke down as follows: .345 in the 1^st half; .361 in the 2^nd half – indicating luck was not as big of an issue.  I hope I am wrong.  I have completely changed my opinion on Nelson and I want to see him blossom into the first rounder the Rockies envisioned when he was drafted, but the Fowler comparisons do not add up.  Nelson has more power and is a better defender than Pacheco, and this recent version of Nelson even looks like a major league infielder (a Rockies third baseman as NL player of the week?!).  Allowing for some regression, Nelson is likely still the best option for 2013 at third, but I have a hard time believing that he is a long term answer analogous to Fowler.

Kevin: There is no way Nelson continues his torrid streak into next year, so this is false. But, it is possible that Nelson has emerged as a decent MLB infielder who can replicate this season’s output next year. He is at least a good utility man who can play three positions in the infield, and he is the best option at the start of next year for third base, seeing as he is both a better defender and hitter than Jordan Pacheco, who is tricking people into thinking he is a very good player by having a shiny batting average. Once you look past Pacheco’s batting average, you quickly realize that there isn’t anything else there –– minimal power, poor defense, few walks, no speed. The troubling thing is that third base will probably be a weak position with either of these two playing there.

Ned: Nelson was a first round draft choice (9^th overall) of the Rockies in 2004.  He turned 27 on September 3.  This year has been a real break-out season for Nelson.  He has played in over 110 games this year with excellent results.  The one thing baseball observers know is that performance is best measured over several years, with consistency being the key.  This being said, Nelson’s trajectory is nicely upward.  He has hit for a solid average this year with some power.  Stats aside, he has a very good-looking swing.  He has consistently hit the ball hard in the second half, driving it to all fields.  At 27, it is important for him to finally make an impact at the major league level, and he has done so this year.  Defensively, he plays a very nice third base—good range, quickness, arm strength and accuracy.  He does look like the real deal, and may just be the team’s answer at third base. Read the rest of this entry »

As the Rockies’ worst season of their 20-year history sputters to a close, I started thinking that it feels like far more than five years have passed since their lone World Series appearance. More specifically, it dawned on me that virtually no players from the 2007 team are still playing for the Rockies. At first, Todd Helton was the only player I could remember from that team. Then, I remembered Jeff Francis was the ace of that staff, but he comes with an asterisk since he was unceremoniously jettisoned after recovering from serious arm injuries in 2011, only to be returned out of sheer desperation due to one of the worst pitching staffs ever assembled. The only other guy I could even give a maybe to was Troy Tulowitzki and a quick look at his stats confirmed that 2007 was his rookie campaign.

I thought that couldn’t really be the list, considering that, again, it’s only been five years. So I looked up the Rockies roster for the World Series and confirmed that those three are indeed the only ones left wearing both a Rockies jersey and Rockies World Series ring. Determined to disprove that this just couldn’t be right, I looked up their stats to find any player who so much as threw a pitch or swung at one during the 2007 season. 53 players donned a Rockies cap and took the field that season and after a lot of Googling, my suspicion was confirmed – not only is Dan O’Dowd the worst general manager in baseball, in just 5 short years he’s almost completely disassembled the greatest team in purple pin stripes. Helton, Tulo, and Francis(*) are all that is left. Surprisingly, there is still one coach remaining – first base coach Glenallen Hill – which, in some ways, makes this even sadder.

Remember back in the early-to-mid 2000’s when O’Dowd and the franchise introduced the Gen-R movement? They promised us that the franchise was “developing its talent” rather than signing free-agents in order to compete over the long term. What they didn’t tell us was that “long term” is a subjective phrase that, in this case, meant seven-year warranty and then your car explodes.

So what happened to all of those players?  Let’s begin with the twenty-eight players who played for the Rockies in 2007, but didn’t make it onto the World Series roster. Read the rest of this entry »